Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events on China＇s rice production

This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi's climate and rice production,we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO's well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First,the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second,there is almost no temperature effect. Finally,the monthly distribution of rainfall is almost the same in ENSO and neutral years because the largest effects are during months when there is the least rain. In addition,due to the high irrigation share and reliable and effective irrigation facilities of cultivated land,China's rice production is less climate-sensitive.

Unpacking the black box of deep learning for identifying El Nino-Southern oscillation

By training a convolutional neural network(CNN) model, we successfully recognize different phases of the El Nino-Southern oscillation. Our model achieves high recognition performance,with accuracy rates of 89.4% for the training dataset and 86.4% for the validation dataset.Through statistical analysis of the weight parameter distribution and activation output in the CNN, we find that most of the convolution kernels and hidden layer neurons remain inactive,while only two convolution kernels and two hidden layer neurons play active roles. By examining the weight parameters of connections between the active convolution kernels and the active hidden neurons, we can automatically differentiate various types of El Nino and La Nina,thereby identifying the specific functions of each part of the CNN. We anticipate that this progress will be helpful for future studies on both climate prediction and a deeper understanding of artificial neural networks.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Variations and Climate Changes Worldwide

This investigation aims to study the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in these three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. Warm and cold events relate to the Spring/Summer seasons. This paper will search for connections between the ENSO events and climate anomalies worldwide. There is some speculation that those events would be necessary for the climate anomalies observed worldwide. After analyzing the data from the reports to the ENSO, it shows almost periodicity from 1950-2023. We emphasized the occurrence of El Niño two years, when it was most prominent, and the climate anomalies (following NOAA maps), 2015 and 2023. The results indicated that the observed climate anomalies couldn’t be linked to the abnormal events observed. The worldwide temperatures in those years enhanced mostly in 2023. It shows an abnormal behavior compared with all the years scrutinized and analyzed since the records began. Therefore, there must be unknown factors beyond ENSO that rule the worldwide temperatures and the climate anomalies observed.

Seasonal evolution of the effects of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation on lower stratospheric water vapor:Delayed effects in late winter and early spring

Water vapor in the stratosphere makes a significant contribution to global climate change by altering the radiative energy budget of the Earth’s climate system.Although many previous studies have shown that the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)has significant effects on the water vapor content of the stratosphere in terms of the annual or seasonal mean,a comprehensive analysis of the seasonal evolution of these effects is still required.Using reanalysis data and satellite observations,we carried out a composite analysis of the seasonal evolution of stratospheric water vapor during El Ni?o/La Ni?a peaks in winter and decays in spring.The ENSO has a distinct hysteresis effect on water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere.The El Ni?o/La Ni?a events moisten/dry out the tropical lower stratosphere in both winter and spring,whereas this wetting/dehydration effect is more significant in spring.This pattern is due to a warmer temperature in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere during the El Ni?o spring phase,which causes more water vapor to enter the stratosphere,and vice versa for La Ni?a.This delayed warming/cooling in the lower stratosphere during the El Ni?o/La Ni?a decay in spring leads to the seasonal evolution of ENSO effects on water vapor in the lower stratosphere.

Asymptotic solution for a class of sea-air oscillator model for El Nio-southern oscillation

The El Nin o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Oceanatmosphere interactions.In this paper,an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for the ENSO model is used.And based on a class of oscillator of ENSO model,the approximate solution of a corresponding problem is studied by employing the perturbation method.Firstly,an ENSO model of nonlinear time delay equation of equatorial Pacific is introduced,Secondly,by using the perturbed method,the zeroth and first order asymptotic perturbed solutions are constructed.Finally,from the comparison of the values for a figure,it is seen that the first asymptotic perturbed solution using the perturbation method has a good accuracy.And it is proved from the results that the perturbation method can be used as an analytic operation for the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model.

Response of Growing Season Gross Primary Production to El Nino in Different Phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over Eastern China Based on Bayesian Model Averaging

Gross primary production(GPP) plays a crucial part in the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems.A set of validated monthly GPP data from 1957 to 2010 in 0.5°× 0.5° grids of China was weighted from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project using Bayesian model averaging(BMA).The spatial anomalies of detrended BMA GPP during the growing seasons of typical El Nino years indicated that GPP response to El Nino varies with Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) phases: when the PDO was in the cool phase,it was likely that GPP was greater in northern China(32°–38°N,111°–122°E) and less in the Yangtze River valley(28°–32°N,111°–122°E);in contrast,when PDO was in the warm phase,the GPP anomalies were usually reversed in these two regions.The consistent spatiotemporal pattern and high partial correlation revealed that rainfall dominated this phenomenon.The previously published findings on how El Nino during different phases of PDO affecting rainfall in eastern China make the statistical relationship between GPP and El Nino in this study theoretically credible.This paper not only introduces an effective way to use BMA in grids that have mixed plant function types,but also makes it possible to evaluate the carbon cycle in eastern China based on the prediction of El Nino and PDO.

Air-sea interactions associated with tropospheric biennial oscillation in South China Sea summer monsoon and their effects on El Nio-Southern Oscillation

The South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) behaves with prominent climate variability from the intraseasonal to interdecadal time scales. On the interannual time scale, the biennial variability (so-called tropospheric biennial oscillation, TBO) is as important as the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) period. Some observed data sets, including reanalysis data, are used to explore the associated air-sea interactive physical processes and how the SCSSM TBO affects the ENSO. The results show that the shearing vorticity induced by the north Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and the anomalous Philippine Sea anticyclone both contribute to the TBO in the SCSSM. The results also indicate that the ENSO has a weak effect on the SCSSM TBO, whereas the latter affects the ENSO to some extent.

THE EXCITING MECHANISM OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION TO EL NINO EVENT

The data analyses indicated that the occurrence of D Nino event is closely related to intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the tropical atmosphere : The intraseasonal oscillation is very strong in tile tropics (particularly over the equatorial western Pacific) prior to the occurrence of El Nino; But the ISO is evidently reduced and the quasistationary system is enhanced after the outbreak of El Nino. A simple air-sea coupled model study shows that the periodical self-excited oscillation can be produced in the air-sea-coupled system, but the pattern is different from the observed ENSO mode. When there is external (atmospheric) forcing with interannual time scale, a coupled mode, which looks like the ENSO mode, will be excited in the air-sea system. Synthesizing the results in data analyses and the theoretical investigation. the mechanism of ISO in the tropical atmosphere exciting the EI Nino event can be suggested : The interannual anomalies (variations) of the tropical ISO play an important role in the exciting EI Nino event through the air-sea interaction.

CMIP 6 models simulation of the connection between North/South Pacific Meridional Mode and ENSO

The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer.

Effect of El Nino Southern Oscillations on the incidence of enteric fever in Ahmedabad,India from 1985 to 2017

Objective:To explore the relationship between climate variables and enteric fever in the city of Ahmedabad and report preliminary findings regarding the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillations and Indian Ocean Dipole over enteric fever incidence.Method:A total of 29808 Widal positive enteric fever cases reported by the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation and local climate data in 1985-2017 from Ahmedabad Meteorology Department were analysed.El Nino,La Nina,neutral and Indian Ocean Dipole years as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the same period were compared for the incidence of enteric fever.Results:Population-normalized average monthly enteric fever case rates were the highest for El Nino years(25.5),lower for La Nina years(20.5)and lowest for neutral years(17.6).A repeated measures ANOVA analysis showed no significant difference in case rates during the three yearly El Nino Southern Oscillations categories.However,visual profile plot of estimated marginal monthly means showed two distinct characteristics:an early rise and peaking of cases in the El Nino and La Nina years,and a much more restrained rise without conspicuous peaks in neutral years.Further analysis based on monthly El Nino Southern Oscillations categories was conducted to detect differences in median monthly case rates.Median case rates in strong and moderate El Nino months and strong La Nina months were significantly dissimilar from that during neutral months(P<0.001).Conclusions:El Nino Southern Oscillations events influence the incidence of enteric fever cases in Ahmedabad,and further investigation from more cities and towns is required.

The Southern Oscillation / Northern Oscillation Cycle Associated with Sea Surface Temperature in the Equatorial Pacific

This paper analyzed the time evolution of the global 1000 hPa height anomalies related to the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific by using ECMWF data in the period 1979-1988, in which two Pacific warm events, 1982/83 and 1986/787, are included. It is found that there are distinct evidences of eastward propagation of alternate positive / negative height anomalies not only in the tropical South Pacific but also in the tropical North Pacific. The former is associated with the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the latter is associated with the so-called Northern Oscillation (NO).It is noteworthy that the alternate positive / negative anomaly centers associated with SO and NO can be traced back to the middle and higher latitudes of the South Indian Ocean and the East Asian continent respectively, which may be significant for the understanding of the causes and mechanism of SO and NO and for the monitoring of ENSO.Furthermore, these evolution processes have a strong symmetry about

The homotopic method of travelling wave solution for El Nio tropic sea-air coupled oscillator

The EI Nio and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific sea-air interactions.In this paper,an asymptotic method of solving nonlinear equations for the ENSO model is proposed.And based on a class of oscillator of the ENSO model and by employing the method of homotopic mapping,the approximate solution of equations for the corresponding ENSO model is studied.It is proved from the results that homotopic method can be used for analysing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the sea-air oscillator for the ENSO model.

Asymptotic solution for the El Nio time delay sea-air oscillator model

A sea-air oscillator model is studied using the time delay theory.The aim is to find an asymptotic solving method for the El Nio -southern oscillation (ENSO) model.Employing the perturbed method,an asymptotic solution of the corresponding problem is obtained.Thus we can obtain the prognoses of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly and the related physical quantities.

VARIATIONAL ITERATION SOLVING METHOD FOR SEA-AIR OSCILLATOR MODEL OF INTERDECADAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS

Atmospheric physics is a very complicated natural phenomenon and needs to simplify its basic models for the sea-air oscillator. And it is solved by using the approximate method. The variational iteration method is a simple and valid method. In this paper the coupled system for a sea-air oscillator model of interdecadal climate fluctuations is considered. Firstly, through introducing a set of functions, and computing the variations, the Lagrange multipliers are obtained. And then, the generalized expressions of variational iteration are constructed. Finally, through selecting appropriate initial iteration from the iteration expressions, the approximations of solution for the sea-air oscillator model are solved successively.

Existence and asymptotic estimates of periodic solutions of a sea-air oscillator model of decadal variations in subtropical cells and equatorial Pacific SST

This paper studies a time delay equation for sea-air oscillator model. The existence and asymptotic estimates of periodic solutions of corresponding problem are obtained by employing the technique of upper and lower solution, and by using the continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory.

Asymptotic solving method for a sea air oscillator model of atmospheric physics

In this paper, a class of coupled system for the El Nin o/La Nin a southern oscillation (ENSO) atmospheric physics oscillation model is considered. We propose an ENSO atmospheric physics model using a method from the asymptotic theory. It is indicated from the results that the asymptotic method can be used for analyzing the sea surface temperature anomaly and the thermocline depth anomaly of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model in the equatorial Pacific.

Dissipative Travelling Wave Solution for El Nio Tropic Sea-air Coupled Oscillator

El Nio and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific sea-air interactions. An asymptotic method of solving equations for the ENSO model is proposed. Based on a class of oscillator of ENSO model and by employing a simple and valid method of the variational iteration, the coupled system for a sea-air oscillator model of interdecadal climate fluctuations is studied. Firstly, by introducing a set of functionals and computing the variationals, the Lagrange multipliers are obtained. And then, the generalized variational iteration expressions are constructed. Finally, by selecting appropriate initial iteration, and from the iterations expressions, the approximations of solution for the sea-air oscillator ENSO model are solved successively. The approximate dissipative travelling wave solution of equations for corresponding ENSO model is studied. It is proved from the results that the method of the variational iteration can be used for analyzing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the sea-air oscillator for ENSO model.

Seasonal Prediction Skill and Biases in GloSea5 Relating to the East Asia Winter Monsoon

The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5),with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead times.While GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWM well,systematic biases exist,including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland,especially for North and Northeast China.GloSea5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWM intensity index two months ahead,which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background circulation.GloSea5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Arctic Oscillation(AO)on the EAWM,especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC).Compared with the North Pacific and North America,the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor,especially for sea level pressure(SLP),which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East Asia.The representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.