Month ahead average daily electricity price profile forecasting based on a hybrid nonlinear regression and SVM model:an ERCOT case study

With the deregulation of the electric power industry, electricity price forecasting plays an increasingly important role in electricity markets, especially for retailors and investment decision making. Month ahead average daily electricity price profile forecasting is proposed for the first time in this paper. A hybrid nonlinear regression and support vector machine(SVM) model is proposed. Offpeak hours, peak hours in peak months and peak hours in off-peak months are distinguished and different methods are designed to improve the forecast accuracy. A nonlinear regression model with deviation compensation is proposed to forecast the prices of off-peak hours and peak hours in off-peak months. SVM is adopted to forecast the prices of peak hours in peak months. Case studies based on data from ERCOT validate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid method.

美国得克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会在风电调度运行管理方面的经验和启示

近年来,美国得克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会(electricreliability council of Texas,ERCOT)在风电调度运行管理方面积累了丰富经验。该地区电网风电发展迅猛,风电装机容量位居美国各州首位。主要介绍了在ERCOT地区电网电力市场模式下风电的功率预测、日前和实时调度运行以及ERCOT地区电网应对风电紧急事件的实例,并对我国可借鉴的ERCOT地区电网调度运行风电经验进行了总结。

美国电力市场中需求响应的发展及启示

需求响应能够在无需投资新的发电资源下满足电力供需平衡。中国在2060年碳中和目标的实现必将会带来能源供需结构的深刻变革,需求侧资源的有效开发有利于碳中和目标的实现。在国内需求响应试点工作及电力市场化改革的有效推进的背景下,首先对需求响应参与美国电力市场发展现状及组织形式进行介绍,其次对需求响应在美国部分电力市场中的发展历程进行研究,总结不同市场中实施需求响应的实施效果及实施经验,以PJM为例对需求响应项目的经济收益组成进行了分析,最后结合国内电力市场化改革和需求响应试点现状,提出进一步开展需求响应工作的建议。