Long-Term Electrical Load Forecasting in Rwanda Based on Support Vector Machine Enhanced with Q-SVM Optimization Kernel Function

In recent years, Rwanda’s rapid economic development has created the “Rwanda Africa Wonder”, but it has also led to a substantial increase in energy consumption with the ambitious goal of reaching universal access by 2024. Meanwhile, on the basis of the rapid and dynamic connection of new households, there is uncertainty about generating, importing, and exporting energy whichever imposes a significant barrier. Long-Term Load Forecasting (LTLF) will be a key to the country’s utility plan to examine the dynamic electrical load demand growth patterns and facilitate long-term planning for better and more accurate power system master plan expansion. However, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) for long-term electric load forecasting is presented in this paper for accurate load mix planning. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work properly for LTLF, a hybrid Q-SVM will be introduced to improve forecasting accuracy. Finally, effectively assess model performance and efficiency, error metrics, and model benchmark parameters there assessed. The case study demonstrates that the new strategy is quite useful to improve LTLF accuracy. The historical electric load data of Rwanda Energy Group (REG), a national utility company from 1998 to 2020 was used to test the forecast model. The simulation results demonstrate the proposed algorithm enhanced better forecasting accuracy.

Machine Learning-based Electric Load Forecasting for Peak Demand Control in Smart Grid

Increasing energy demands due to factors such as population,globalization,and industrialization has led to increased challenges for existing energy infrastructure.Efficient ways of energy generation and energy consumption like smart grids and smart homes are implemented to face these challenges with reliable,cheap,and easily available sources of energy.Grid integration of renewable energy and other clean distributed generation is increasing continuously to reduce carbon and other air pollutants emissions.But the integration of distributed energy sources and increase in electric demand enhance instability in the grid.Short-term electrical load forecasting reduces the grid fluctuation and enhances the robustness and power quality of the grid.Electrical load forecasting in advance on the basic historical data modelling plays a crucial role in peak electrical demand control,reinforcement of the grid demand,and generation balancing with cost reduction.But accurate forecasting of electrical data is a very challenging task due to the nonstationary and nonlinearly nature of the data.Machine learning and artificial intelligence have recognized more accurate and reliable load forecastingmethods based on historical load data.The purpose of this study is to model the electrical load of Jajpur,Orissa Grid for forecasting of load using regression type machine learning algorithms Gaussian process regression(GPR).The historical electrical data and whether data of Jajpur is taken for modelling and simulation and the data is decided in such a way that the model will be considered to learn the connection among past,current,and future dependent variables,factors,and the relationship among data.Based on this modelling of data the network will be able to forecast the peak load of the electric grid one day ahead.The study is very helpful in grid stability and peak load control management.

Data-Driven Load Forecasting Using Machine Learning and Meteorological Data

Electrical load forecasting is very crucial for electrical power systems’planning and operation.Both electrical buildings’load demand and meteorological datasets may contain hidden patterns that are required to be investigated and studied to show their potential impact on load forecasting.The meteorological data are analyzed in this study through different data mining techniques aiming to predict the electrical load demand of a factory located in Riyadh,Saudi Arabia.The factory load and meteorological data used in this study are recorded hourly between 2016 and 2017.These data are provided by King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy and Saudi Electricity Company at a site located in Riyadh.After applying the data pre-processing techniques to prepare the data,different machine learning algorithms,namely Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Regression(SVR),are applied and compared to predict the factory load.In addition,for the sake of selecting the optimal set of features,13 different combinations of features are investigated in this study.The outcomes of this study emphasize selecting the optimal set of features as more features may add complexity to the learning process.Finally,the SVR algorithm with six features provides the most accurate prediction values to predict the factory load.

Deep learning for time series forecasting:The electric load case

Management and efficient operations in critical infrastructures such as smart grids take huge advantage of accurate power load forecasting,which,due to its non-linear nature,remains a challenging task.Recently,deep learning has emerged in the machine learning field achieving impressive performance in a vast range of tasks,from image classification to machine translation.Applications of deep learning models to the electric load forecasting problem are gaining interest among researchers as well as the industry,but a comprehensive and sound comparison among different-also traditional-architectures is not yet available in the literature.This work aims at filling the gap by reviewing and experimentally evaluating four real world datasets on the most recent trends in electric load forecasting,by contrasting deep learning architectures on short-term forecast(oneday-ahead prediction).Specifically,the focus is on feedforward and recurrent neural networks,sequence-to-sequence models and temporal convolutional neural networks along with architectural variants,which are known in the signal processing community but are novel to the load forecasting one.

Hybrid Deep Learning Enabled Load Prediction for Energy Storage Systems

Recent economic growth and development have considerably raised energy consumption over the globe.Electric load prediction approaches become essential for effective planning,decision-making,and contract evaluation of the power systems.In order to achieve effective forecasting outcomes with minimumcomputation time,this study develops an improved whale optimization with deep learning enabled load prediction(IWO-DLELP)scheme for energy storage systems(ESS)in smart grid platform.The major intention of the IWO-DLELP technique is to effectually forecast the electric load in SG environment for designing proficient ESS.The proposed IWO-DLELP model initially undergoes pre-processing in two stages namely min-max normalization and feature selection.Besides,partition clustering approach is applied for the decomposition of data into distinct clusters with respect to distance and objective functions.Moreover,IWO with bidirectional gated recurrent unit(BiGRU)model is applied for the prediction of load and the hyperparameters are tuned by the use of IWO algorithm.The experiment analysis reported the enhanced results of the IWO-DLELP model over the recent methods interms of distinct evaluation measures.

Explainability and Interpretability in Electric Load Forecasting Using Machine Learning Techniques–A Review

Electric Load Forecasting(ELF)is the central instrument for planning and controlling demand response programs,electricity trading,and consumption optimization.Due to the increasing automation of these processes,meaningful and transparent forecasts become more and more important.Still,at the same time,the complexity of the used machine learning models and architectures increases.Because there is an increasing interest in interpretable and explainable load forecasting methods,this work conducts a literature review to present already applied approaches regarding explainability and interpretability for load forecasts using Machine Learning.Based on extensive literature research covering eight publication portals,recurring modeling approaches,trends,and modeling techniques are identified and clustered by properties to achieve more interpretable and explainable load forecasts.The results on interpretability show an increase in the use of probabilistic models,methods for time series decomposition and the use of fuzzy logic in addition to classically interpretable models.Dominant explainable approaches are Feature Importance and Attention mechanisms.The discussion shows that a lot of knowledge from the related field of time series forecasting still needs to be adapted to the problems in ELF.Compared to other applications of explainable and interpretable methods such as clustering,there are currently relatively few research results,but with an increasing trend.

Data-driven comparison of federated learning and model personalization for electric load forecasting

Residential short-term electric load forecasting is essential in modern decentralized power systems.Load forecasting methods mostly rely on neural networks and require access to private and sensitive electric load data for model training.Conventional neural network training aggregates all data on a centralized server to train one global model.However,the aggregation of user data introduces security and data privacy risks.In contrast,this study investigates the modern neural network training methods of federated learning and model personalization as potential solutions to security and data privacy problems.Within an extensive simulation approach,the investigated methods are compared to the conventional centralized method and a pre-trained baseline predictor to compare their respective performances.This study identifies that the underlying data structure of electric load data has a significant influence on the loss of a model.We therefore conclude that a comparison of loss distributions will in fact be considered a comparison of data structures,rather than a comparison of the model performance.As an alternative method of comparison of loss values,this study develops the"differential comparison".The method allows for the isolated comparison of model loss differences by only comparing the losses of two models generated by the same data sample to build a distribution of differences.The differential comparison method was then used to identify model personalization as the best performing model training method for load forecasting among all analyzed methods,with a superior performance in 59.1%of all cases.

Forecasting Daily Electric Load by Applying Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Transformation and Principal Component Analysis Technique

In this paper,we propose a hybrid forecasting model(HFM)for the short-term electric load forecasting using artificial neural network(ANN),discrete Fourier transformation(DFT)and principal component analysis(PCA)techniques in order to attain higher prediction accuracy.Firstly,we estimate Fourier coefficients by the DFT for predicting the next-day load curve with an ANN and obtain approximate load curves by applying the inverse discrete Fourier transformation.Approximate curves,together with other input variables,are given to the ANN to predict the next-day hourly load curves.Furthermore,we predict PCA scores to obtain approximate load curves in the first step,which are then given to the ANN again in the second step.Both DFT and PCA models use input variables such as calendrical and meteorological data as well as past electric loads.Applying those models for forecasting hourly electric load in the metropolitan area of Japan for January and May in 2018,we train our models using historical data since January 2008.The forecast results show that the HFM consisting of“ANN with DFT”and“ANN with PCA”predicts next-day hourly loads more accurately than the conventional three-layered ANN approach.Their corresponding mean average absolute errors show 2.7%for ANN with DFT,2.6%for ANN with PCA and 3.0%for the conventional ANN approach.We also find that in May,when electric demand is smaller with smaller fluctuations,forecasting errors are much smaller than January for all the models.Thus,we can conclude that the HFM would contribute to attaining significantly higher forecasting accuracy.

Complex matrix interpolation model of the S-transform for electric load movement forecast

Electric load movement forecast is increasingly importance for the industry.This study addresses the load movement forecast modeling based on complex matrix interpolation of the S-transform(ST).In complex matrix of time-frequency representation of the ST,each row follows conjugate symmetric property and each column appears a certain degree of similarity.Based on these characteristics,a complex matrix interpolation method for the time-frequency representation of the ST is proposed to interpolate each row of the complex matrix based on the conjugate symmetric property,and then to perform nearestneighbor interpolation on each column.Then with periodic extension for daily and yearly electric load movement,a forecast model employing the complex matrix interpolation of the ST is introduced.The forecast approach is applied to predict daily load movement of the European Network on Intelligent Technologies(EUNITE)load dataset and annual electric load movement of State Gird Corporation of China and its branches in 2005 and 2006.Result analysis indicates workability and effectiveness of the proposed method.