Some characteristics of the electricity load and prices are studied, and the relationship between electricity prices and gas (fnel) prices is analyzed in this paper. Because electricity prices are strongly depen-dent ...Some characteristics of the electricity load and prices are studied, and the relationship between electricity prices and gas (fnel) prices is analyzed in this paper. Because electricity prices are strongly depen-dent on load and gas prices, the authors constructed a model for electricity prices based on the effects of these two factors; and used the Geometric Mean Reversion Brownian Motion (GMRBM) model to describe the electricity load process, and a Geometric Brownian Motion(GBM) model to describe the gas prices ; deduced the price stochastic process model based on the above load model and gas price model. This paper also presents methods for parameters estimation, and proposes some methods to solve the model.展开更多
In the electricity market environment,electricity price forecasting plays an essential role in the decision-making process of a power generation company,especially in developing the optimal bidding strategy for maximi...In the electricity market environment,electricity price forecasting plays an essential role in the decision-making process of a power generation company,especially in developing the optimal bidding strategy for maximizing revenues.Hence,it is necessary for a power generation company to develop an accurate electricity price forecasting algorithm.Given this background,this paper proposes a two-step day-ahead electricity price forecasting algorithm based on the weighted Knearest neighborhood(WKNN)method and the Gaussian process regression(GPR)approach.In the first step,several predictors,i.e.,operation indicators,are presented and the WKNN method is employed to detect the day-ahead price spike based on these indicators.In the second step,the outputs of the first step are regarded as a new predictor,and it is utilized together with the operation indicators to accurately forecast the electricity price based on the GPR approach.The proposed algorithm is verified by actual market data in Pennsylvania-New JerseyMaryland Interconnection(PJM),and comparisons between this algorithm and existing ones are also made to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can attain accurate price forecasting results even with several price spikes in historical electricity price data.展开更多
Stochastic optimization can be used to generate optimal bidding strategies for virtual bidders in which the uncertain electricity prices are represented by using scenarios.This paper proposes a hybrid scenario generat...Stochastic optimization can be used to generate optimal bidding strategies for virtual bidders in which the uncertain electricity prices are represented by using scenarios.This paper proposes a hybrid scenario generation method for electricity price using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model and historical data.The electricity price spikes are first identified by using an outlier detection method.Then,the historical data are decomposed into base and spike components.Next,the base and spike component scenarios are generated by using the SARIMA-and historical data-based methods,respectively.Finally,the electricity price scenarios are obtained by combining the base and spike component scenarios.Case studies are carried out for a virtual bidder in the PJM electricity market to validate the proposed method.The optimal bidding strategies of the virtual bidder are generated by solving a stochastic optimization problem using the electricity price scenarios generated by the proposed method,the SARIMA method,and a historical data-based method,respectively.Case study results show that the proposed method is better than the SARIMA method in preserving statistical properties of the electricity price in the generated scenarios and is better than the historical data-based method in predicting the future trend of the electricity price and,therefore,can help the virtual bidder earn more profit in the electricity market.展开更多
A smart grid power system for a small region consisting of 1,000 residential homes with electric heating appliances from the demand side,and a generic generation mix of nuclear,hydro,coal,gas and oil-based generators ...A smart grid power system for a small region consisting of 1,000 residential homes with electric heating appliances from the demand side,and a generic generation mix of nuclear,hydro,coal,gas and oil-based generators representing the supply side,is investigated using agent-based simulations.The simulation includes a transactive load control in a real-time pricing electricity market.The study investigates the impacts of adding wind power and demand response(DR)on both greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions and generator cycling requirements.The results demonstrate and quantify the effectiveness of DR in mitigating the variability of renewable generation.The extent to which greenhouse gas emissions can be mitigated is found to be highly dependent on the mix of generators and their operational capacity factors.It is expected that the effects of demand response on electricity use can reduce dependency on fossil fuel-based electricity generation.However,the anticipated mitigation of GHG emissions is found to dependent on the number and efficiency of fossil fuel generators,and especially on the capacity factor at which they operate.Therefore,if a generator(the marginal seller)is forced to use less efficient fossil fuel power generation schemes,it will result in higher GHG emissions.The simulations show that DR can yield a small reduction in GHG emissions,but also lead to a smaller increase in emissions in circumstances when,for example,a generator(the marginal seller)is forced to use less efficient fossil fuel power generation schemes.Nonetheless,DR is shown to enhance overall system operation,particularly by facilitating increased penetration of variable renewable electricity generation without jeopardizing grid operation reliability.DR reduces the amount of generator cycling by an increased order of magnitude,thereby reducing wear and tear,improving generator efficiency,and avoiding the need for additional operating reserves.The effectiveness of DR for these uses depends on the participation of responsive loads,and this study highlights the need to maintain a certain degree of diversity of loads to ensure they can provide adequate responsiveness to the changing grid conditions.展开更多
文摘Some characteristics of the electricity load and prices are studied, and the relationship between electricity prices and gas (fnel) prices is analyzed in this paper. Because electricity prices are strongly depen-dent on load and gas prices, the authors constructed a model for electricity prices based on the effects of these two factors; and used the Geometric Mean Reversion Brownian Motion (GMRBM) model to describe the electricity load process, and a Geometric Brownian Motion(GBM) model to describe the gas prices ; deduced the price stochastic process model based on the above load model and gas price model. This paper also presents methods for parameters estimation, and proposes some methods to solve the model.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.52077195)Zhejiang University Academic Award for Outstanding Doctoral Candidates (No.202022)。
文摘In the electricity market environment,electricity price forecasting plays an essential role in the decision-making process of a power generation company,especially in developing the optimal bidding strategy for maximizing revenues.Hence,it is necessary for a power generation company to develop an accurate electricity price forecasting algorithm.Given this background,this paper proposes a two-step day-ahead electricity price forecasting algorithm based on the weighted Knearest neighborhood(WKNN)method and the Gaussian process regression(GPR)approach.In the first step,several predictors,i.e.,operation indicators,are presented and the WKNN method is employed to detect the day-ahead price spike based on these indicators.In the second step,the outputs of the first step are regarded as a new predictor,and it is utilized together with the operation indicators to accurately forecast the electricity price based on the GPR approach.The proposed algorithm is verified by actual market data in Pennsylvania-New JerseyMaryland Interconnection(PJM),and comparisons between this algorithm and existing ones are also made to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can attain accurate price forecasting results even with several price spikes in historical electricity price data.
基金supported in part by the Nebraska Public Power District through the Nebraska Center for Energy Sciences Research。
文摘Stochastic optimization can be used to generate optimal bidding strategies for virtual bidders in which the uncertain electricity prices are represented by using scenarios.This paper proposes a hybrid scenario generation method for electricity price using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model and historical data.The electricity price spikes are first identified by using an outlier detection method.Then,the historical data are decomposed into base and spike components.Next,the base and spike component scenarios are generated by using the SARIMA-and historical data-based methods,respectively.Finally,the electricity price scenarios are obtained by combining the base and spike component scenarios.Case studies are carried out for a virtual bidder in the PJM electricity market to validate the proposed method.The optimal bidding strategies of the virtual bidder are generated by solving a stochastic optimization problem using the electricity price scenarios generated by the proposed method,the SARIMA method,and a historical data-based method,respectively.Case study results show that the proposed method is better than the SARIMA method in preserving statistical properties of the electricity price in the generated scenarios and is better than the historical data-based method in predicting the future trend of the electricity price and,therefore,can help the virtual bidder earn more profit in the electricity market.
基金This work was supported by Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions(PICS)the Wind Energy Strategic Network(WESNet)and the US Department of Energy(DOE),Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability.
文摘A smart grid power system for a small region consisting of 1,000 residential homes with electric heating appliances from the demand side,and a generic generation mix of nuclear,hydro,coal,gas and oil-based generators representing the supply side,is investigated using agent-based simulations.The simulation includes a transactive load control in a real-time pricing electricity market.The study investigates the impacts of adding wind power and demand response(DR)on both greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions and generator cycling requirements.The results demonstrate and quantify the effectiveness of DR in mitigating the variability of renewable generation.The extent to which greenhouse gas emissions can be mitigated is found to be highly dependent on the mix of generators and their operational capacity factors.It is expected that the effects of demand response on electricity use can reduce dependency on fossil fuel-based electricity generation.However,the anticipated mitigation of GHG emissions is found to dependent on the number and efficiency of fossil fuel generators,and especially on the capacity factor at which they operate.Therefore,if a generator(the marginal seller)is forced to use less efficient fossil fuel power generation schemes,it will result in higher GHG emissions.The simulations show that DR can yield a small reduction in GHG emissions,but also lead to a smaller increase in emissions in circumstances when,for example,a generator(the marginal seller)is forced to use less efficient fossil fuel power generation schemes.Nonetheless,DR is shown to enhance overall system operation,particularly by facilitating increased penetration of variable renewable electricity generation without jeopardizing grid operation reliability.DR reduces the amount of generator cycling by an increased order of magnitude,thereby reducing wear and tear,improving generator efficiency,and avoiding the need for additional operating reserves.The effectiveness of DR for these uses depends on the participation of responsive loads,and this study highlights the need to maintain a certain degree of diversity of loads to ensure they can provide adequate responsiveness to the changing grid conditions.