Long-term Regional Dynamic Sea Level Changes from CMIP6 Projections

Anthropogenic climate forcing will cause the global mean sea level to rise over the 21st century.However,regional sea level is expected to vary across ocean basins,superimposed by the influence of natural internal climate variability.Here,we address the detection of dynamic sea level(DSL)changes by combining the perspectives of a single and a multimodel ensemble approach(the 50-member CanESM5 and a 27-model ensemble,respectively,all retrieved from the CMIP6 archive),under three CMIP6 projected scenarios:SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5.The ensemble analysis takes into account four key metrics:signal(S),noise(N),S/N ratio,and time of emergence(ToE).The results from both sets of ensembles agree in the fact that regions with higher S/N(associated with smaller uncertainties)also reflect earlier ToEs.The DSL signal is projected to emerge in the Southern Ocean,Southeast Pacific,Northwest Atlantic,and the Arctic.Results common for both sets of ensemble simulations show that while S progressively increases with increased projected emissions,N,in turn,does not vary substantially among the SSPs,suggesting that uncertainty arising from internal climate variability has little dependence on changes in the magnitude of external forcing.Projected changes are greater and quite similar for the scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 and considerably smaller for the SSP1-2.6,highlighting the importance of public policies towards lower emission scenarios and of keeping emissions below a certain threshold.

Effect of sublethal doses of the insecticide imidacloprid on adaptive traits of Drosophila melanogaster:Response to treatment over and after 15 consecutive generations

A sublethal dose of Imidacloprid, considered actually as the most widely used insecticide against biting and sucking insects, was administered to Drosophila melanogaster for detecting effects on biological traits. The choice of this species as organism-model potentially opens the possibility to explore more deeply the processes involved in those effects because, among other reasons, there is a large accumulation of biological knowledge on this species and because it propitiates multiple approaches in laboratory and nature. The flies were treated along 15 consecutive generations. F1 parents were randomly taken among virgin flies from the stocks, but the parents of the successive generations were the first 15 couples emerged in the previous one. The number of progeny (productivity) and the duration of the emergence period were analyzed in every generation revealing insecticide toxicity in 12 of the 15 generations. The observation of an increase in the number of progeny over the generations, which occurred in both control and treated experiments (although maintaining higher productivity in the control), suggested an effect of the use of the first 15 emerged couples in successive generations. A comparative analysis of the mortality of the F15 adult flies exposed to imidacloprid by contact, which involved flies from the control, treatment and from the stocks that originated the experiments, reinforced this idea, indicating a genetic interplay of the emergence speed with productivity and adult tolerance to the insecticide, a subject that may be better explored in another study. Toxicity was also observed for the traits longevity, viability during development from egg to adult and oviposition rate. Considering the present intensive use of imidacloprid, the harmful effects observed in these important biological characteristics may be considered able to decrease the adaptive value of D. melanogaster populations exposing them at risk of decline.

Trends and characteristics in pre-hospital emergency care in Beijing from 2008 to 2017

Background: We aimed to describe and analyze the pre-hospital emergency medical service (EMS) in Beijing and provide information for the government and medical institutions to optimize EMS.Methods: We collected all pre-hospital emergency data in Beijing from 2008 to 2017. The chief complaint in each case was classified according to the Medical Priority Dispatch System (MPDS). The sites’ administrative districts were determined through geo-encoding of addresses and then classified into four functional regions. We analyzed the demand for EMS, emergency response times (ERT), and disease spectrum for Beijing as a whole, and for each functional region.Results: A total of 4,192,870 pre-hospital EMS cases met the inclusion criteria, with a significant increase (P < 0.001) of 51.60% from 2008 to 2017. EMS demand was positively associated with population (r= 0.946,P < 0.001). The pre-hospital EMS demand rate was 1907.05 in 2008 and 2172.23 in 2017 per 100,000, with no significant change (P = 0.57). ERT increased significantly (P = 0.001), from 19.18 min in 2008 to 24.51 min in 2016. According to MPDS classifications, the demand for pre-hospital care increased for 14 diseases, remained stable for 19, and decreased for only 1 disease. Cases of injury-related disease increased significantly from approximately 90,000 in 2017, accounting for 20% of all pre-hospital EMS cases, and the demand rate decreased in the core region but increased in the sub-urban regions. Cases of heart problems and stroke/transient ischemic attack also increased significantly in the four functional regions, with the highest demand rate in the Core Functional Region.Conclusions: More resources and effort should be devoted to pre-hospital EMS according to the increased pre-hospital EMS demand and prolonged ERT in Beijing over our 10-year study period. Changes in disease spectrum and differences between functional regions should also be considered.