Research on Carbon Reduction Strategy of China’s Industrial Chain with the Goal of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality

In order to achieve the development goals of emission peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060,carbon reduction measures should be implemented in the whole industrial chain.Based on the existing research,the basic logic of carbon reduction in the industrial chain is analyzed,and then the specific strategies for carbon reduction in the industrial chain are proposed,including:reducing the use of fossil energy and vigorously developing the new energy industry;reducing carbon through energy conservation,industrial upgrading,development of circular economy,and application of carbon capture technology;reducing carbon through low-carbon transformation of logistics industry,innovation of trading methods,and promotion of low-carbon green consumption.The external guarantee system for carbon reduction includes the introduction of relevant policies,laws and regulations,and the use of carbon emission trading mechanism.

A review of research on China's carbon emission peak and its forcing mechanism

In order to make further steps in dealing with climate change, China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030 and to make best efforts for the peaking early. The carbon emission peak target(CEPT) must result in a forcing mechanism on China's economic transition. This paper, by following the logical order from "research on carbon emission history" to "carbon emission trend prediction," from "research on paths of realizing peak" to "peak restraint research," provides a general review of current status and development trend of researches on China's carbon emission and its peak value. Furthermore,this paper also reviews the basic theories and specific cases of the forcing mechanism.Based on the existing achievements and development trends in this field, the following research directions that can be further expanded are put forward. First, from the perspective of long-term strategy of sustainable development, we should analyze and construct the forcing mechanism of CEPT in a reverse thinking way. Second, economic transition paths under the forcing mechanism should be systematically studied. Third, by constructing a large-scale policy evaluation model, the emission reduction performance and economic impact of a series of policy measures adopted during the transition process should be quantitatively evaluated.

Estimate of Peaks of Carbon Emissions and Pricing of Carbon Emission Permit in China

With the aid of Matlab software, the peaks of China＇s carbon emissions and their appearing time in three situations were simulated, and the shallow price of carbon emission permit and its effects on China＇s economic growth were analyzed. The results show that it is most effective and feasible to reduce energy consumption per GDP by 25%, and the peak of China＇s carbon emissions will appear in 2017. As a result, energy conser- vation and emission reduction is realized, and China＇s international talk power about carbon emission will improved. However, the shallow price and permit rate of carbon emission permit calculated in the situation are the lowest, and the adverse impact of the initial price of carbon emissions on China＇s economic growth is the largest. Therefore, consideration should be given to both the promotion of pricing and trading of carbon emission permit to reduction of carbon emissions and their adverse effects on GDP in China.

Recycling Carbon Resources from Waste PET to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emission:Carbonization Technology Review and Perspective

Greenhouse gas emissions from waste plastics have caused global warming all over the world,which has been a central threat to the ecological environment for humans,flora and fauna.Among waste plastics,waste polyethylene terephthalate(PET)is attractive due to its excellent stability and degradation-resistant.Therefore,merging China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals would be beneficial.In this review,we summarize the current state-of-the-art of carbon emission decrease from a multi-scale perspective technologically.We suggest that the carbon peak for waste PET can be achieved by employing the closed-loop supply chain,including recycling,biomass utilization,carbon capture and utilization.Waste PET can be a valuable and renewable resource in the whole life cycle.Undoubtedly,all kinds of PET plastics can be ultimately converted into CO_(2),which can also be feedstock for various kinds of chemical products,including ethyl alcohol,formic acid,soda ash,PU,starch and so on.As a result,the closed-loop supply chain can help the PET plastics industry drastically reduce its carbon footprint.

Analysis of Dynamic Tensile Process of Fiber Reinforced Concrete by Acoustic Emission Technique

The fiber reinforced concrete has good dynamic mechanical properties. But corresponding research lacks the dynamic damage characteristics of the polypropylene fiber（fiber of low elastic modulus） and steel fiber（fiber of high elastic modulus） reinforced concrete under medium strain rate（10-6 s-1-10-4 s-1）. In order to study the effect of strain rate on the damage characteristics of fiber reinforced concrete during the full curve damage process, the real time dynamic acoustic emission（AE） technique was applied to monitor the damage process of fiber reinforced concrete at three strain rates. The AE wavelet energy spectrum in ca8 frequency band and average AE peak frequency at three strain rates were analyzed. With the accumulation of damage, the AE wavelet energy spectrum in ca8 frequency band increased first and then decreased, and the average AE peak frequency increased gradually. With the increase of strain rate, the AE wavelet energy spectrum in ca8 frequency band and average AE peak frequency decreased gradually. The polypropylene fiber content has more obvious effect on the Dynamic increase factor（DIF） of the peak stress than the steel fiber content. The theoretical basis was provided for the monitoring of dynamic damage of fiber reinforced concrete based on the AE technique.

Change trend of natural gas hydrates in permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(1960-2050)under the background of global warming and their impacts on carbon emissions

Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community.As the world’s third pole,the global warming amplifier,and the starting region of China’s climate change,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is extremely sensitive to climate change.The permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in natural gas hydrates(NGHs)resources.Under the background of global warming,whether the NGHs will be disassociated and enter the atmosphere as the air temperature rises has become a major concern of both the public and the scientific community.Given this,this study reviewed the trend of global warming and accordingly summarized the characteristics of the temperature increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Based on this as well as the distribution characteristics of the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,this study investigated the changes in the response of the NGHs to global warming,aiming to clarify the impacts of global warming on the NGHs in the permafrost of the plateau.A noticeable response to global warming has been observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Over the past decades,the increase in the mean annual air temperature of the plateau was increasingly high and more recently.Specifically,the mean annual air temperature of the plateau changed at a rate of approximately 0.308-0.420℃/10a and increased by approximately 1.54-2.10℃in the past decades.Moreover,the annual mean ground temperature of the shallow permafrost on the plateau increased by approximately 1.155-1.575℃and the permafrost area decreased by approximately 0.34×10^(6)km^(2) from about 1.4×10^(6)km^(2) to 1.06×10^(6)km^(2) in the past decades.As indicated by simulated calculation results,the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has decreased by 29-39 m in the past 50 years,with the equivalent of(1.69-2.27)×10^(10)-(1.12-1.51)×10^(12)m^(3) of methane(CH_(4))being released due to NGHs dissociation.It is predicted that the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost will decrease by 23 m and 27 m,and dissociated and released NGHs will be the equivalent of(1.34-88.8)×10^(10)m^(3) and(1.57-104)×10^(10)m^(3)of CH_(4),respectively by 2030 and 2050.Considering the positive feedback mechanism of NGHs on global warming and the fact that CH_(4) has a higher greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide,the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will emit more CH_(4) into the atmosphere,which is an important trend of NGHs under the background of global warming.Therefore,the NGHs are destructive as a time bomb and may lead to a waste of efforts that mankind has made in carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality.Accordingly,this study suggests that human beings should make more efforts to conduct the exploration and exploitation of the NGHs in the permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,accelerate research on the techniques and equipment for NGHs extraction,storage,and transportation,and exploit the permafrost-associated NGHs while thawing them.The purpose is to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere and mitigate the atmospheric greenhouse effect,thus contributing to the global goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.

Progress, challenge and significance of building a carbon industry system in the context of carbon neutrality strategy

Carbon dioxide storage and utilization has become an inevitable trend and choice for sustainable development under the background of global climate change and carbon neutrality.Carbon industry which is dominated by CO_(2) capture,utilization and storage/CO_(2) capture and storage(CCUS/CCS)is becoming a new strategic industry under the goal of carbon neutrality.The sustainable development of carbon industry needs to learn from the experiences of global oil and gas industry development.There are three types of“carbon”in the earth system.Black carbon is the CO_(2) that has not been sequestered or used and remains in the atmosphere for a long time;grey carbon is the CO_(2) that has been fixed or permanently sequestered in the geological body,and blue carbon is the CO_(2) that could be converted into products for human use through biological,physical,chemical and other ways.The carbon industry system covers carbon generation,carbon capture,carbon transportation,carbon utilization,carbon sequestration,carbon products,carbon finance,and other businesses.It is a revolutionary industrial field to completely eliminate“black carbon”.The development of carbon industry technical system takes carbon emission reduction,zero carbon,negative carbon and carbon economy as the connotation,and the construction of a low-cost and energy-efficient carbon industry system based on CCUS/CCS are strategic measures to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality and clean energy utilization globally.This will promote the“four 80%s”transformation of China's energy supply,namely,to 2060,the percentage of zero-carbon new energy in the energy consumption will be over 80%and the CO_(2) emission will be decreased by 80%to ensure the carbon emission reduction of total 80×10^(8) t from the percentage of carbon-based fossil energy in the energy consumption of over 80%,and the percentage of CO_(2) emission from energy of over 80%in 2021.The carbon industry in China is facing three challenges,large CO_(2) emissions,high percentage of coal in energy consumption,and poor innovative system.Three strategic measures are proposed accordingly,including:(1)unswervingly develop carbon industrial system and ensure the achievement of carbon neutrality as scheduled by 2060;(2)vigorously develop new energy sources and promote a revolutionary transformation of China’s energy production and consumption structure;(3)accelerate the establishment of scientific and technological innovation system of the whole CO_(2) industry.It is of great significance for continuously optimization of ecological environment and construction of green earth and ecological earth to develop the carbon industry system,utilize clean energy,and achieve the strategic goal of global carbon neutrality.

Decarbonization options of the iron and steelmaking industry based on a three-dimensional analysis

Decarbonization is a critical issue for peaking CO_(2) emissions of energy-intensive industries,such as the iron and steel industry.The decarbonization options of China’s ironmaking and steelmaking sector were discussed based on a systematic three-dimensional low-carbon analysis from the aspects of resource utilization(Y),energy utilization(Q),and energy cleanliness which is evaluated by a process general emission factor(PGEF)on all the related processes,including the current blast furnace(BF)-basic oxygen furnace(BOF)integrated process and the specific sub-processes,as well as the electric arc furnace(EAF)process,typical direct reduction(DR)process,and smelting reduction(SR)process.The study indicates that the three-dimensional aspects,particularly the energy structure,should be comprehensively considered to quantitatively evaluate the decarbonization road map based on novel technologies or processes.Promoting scrap utilization(improvement of Y)and the substitution of carbon-based energy(improvement of PGEF)in particular is critical.In terms of process scale,promoting the development of the scrap-based EAF or DR-EAF process is highly encouraged because of their lower PGEF.The three-dimensional method is expected to extend to other processes or industries,such as the cement production and thermal electricity generation industries.

Criteria for assessing carbon emissions peaks at provincial level in China

China has pledged to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and neutralize emissions by 2060.There is an urgent need to develop a comprehensive and reliable methodology to judge whether a region has reached its carbon emissions peak(CEP),as well as to schedule and prioritize mitigation activities for different regions.In this study,we developed an approach for identifying the CEP status of 30 provincial areas in China,considering both the carbon emissions trends and the main socioeconomic factors that influence these trends.According to the results of the Mann-Kendall(MK)tests,changes in carbon emissions for the 30 provincial areas can be grouped inlo four clusters:those with significant reductions,marginal reductions,marginal increases,and significant increases.Then,total energy consumption(TEC),the proportion of coal consumption(PCC),the proportion of the urban population(PUP),the proportion of secondary industry(PASP),and per capita GDP(PGDP)were further identified as the main factors influencing carbon emissions,by applying Redundancy analysis(RDA)and Monte Carlo permutation tests.To balance efficacy with fairness,we assigned scores from 1 to 4 to trends in carbon emissions,and the Group Analysis results of the main influencing factors above except for TEC;for TEC,main basis is the relevant assessment results.And finally,according to the actual condition of total scores,provincial areas were assigned to the first,second,third and fourth stage of progress toward CEP,using the method of Natural Breaks(Jenks).Based on the method,differentiated plans should be adopted from the perspective of fair development and emissions reduction efficiency,in accordance with the basic principles of Doing the Best within Capacity and Common but Differentiated Responsibilities.This classification method can also be adopted by other developing countries which have not yet achieved CEP.

Research on China’s technology lists for addressing climate change

The compilation of technology lists addressing climate change has a guiding effect on promoting technological research and development,demonstration,and popularization.It is also crucial for China to strengthen ecological civilization construction,achieve the carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality target,and enhance global climate governance capabilities.This study first proposes the existing classification outline of the technology promotion lists,technology demand lists,and future technology lists.Then,different methodologies are integrated on the basis of the existing outline of four technology lists:China’s existing technological promotion list for addressing climate change,China’s demand list for climate change mitigation technology,China’s key technology list for addressing climate change,and China’s future technology list for addressing climate change.What’s more,core technologies are analyzed in the aspects of technology maturity,carbon reduction cost,carbon reduction potential,economic benefits,social influence,uncertainty,etc.The results show that:key industries and sectors in China already have relatively mature mitigation/adaptation technologies to support the achievement of climate change targets.The multi-sectoral system of promoting climate friendly technologies has been established,which has played an active role in tackling climate change.Currently,climate technology needs are concentrated in the traditional technology and equipment upgrading,renewable energy technology,and management decision-making support technology.The key technologies are concentrated in 3 major areas and 12 technological directions that urgently need a breakthrough.For carbon emmission peak and nentrality,carbon depth reduction and zero carbon emissions and geoengineering technology(CDR and SRM)have played an important role in forming the structure of global emissions and achieving carbon neutrality in the future.Thus,the uncertainty assessment for the comprehensive technology cost effectiveness,technology integration direction,technical maturity,ethics and ecological impacts is supportive to the national technology strategy.Finally,the presented study proposes several policy implications for medium-and long-term technology deployment,improving technology conversion rate,promoting the research and development of core technologies,and forming a technology list collaborative update and release mechanism.

Auction mechanism design of the Chinese national carbon market for carbon neutralization

The carbon market auction mechanism is an important policy tool for carbon pricing and a key mechanism that supports carbon emission neutralization,especially for China.A few systematic studies exist on China’s carbon market auction mechanism.This article focuses on the five auction mechanisms in Chinese pilot emission trading schemes(ETS),reviews the structures and bidding situation of the five-pilot auction mechanism,extracts the similarities,and analyzes their different features,such as auction mode,bidding scale,participants,pricing mode,auction frequency,and so on.This study conducts an in-depth analysis of the carbon allowance auction mechanism in the Guangdong pilot ETS of China,including its development and the evolution of the key elements,its operational effects,and related disputes.Finally,this study puts forward the trend forecast and suggestions for the Chinese allowance auction mechanism,such as the time window of launching national allowance auctions,the most likely auction mode,carbon pricing,and bidding revenue management.Carbon pricing by auction is the most powerful policy tool for addressing carbon emissions reduction and implementing the Glasgow Climate Pact.

Pathways to peak carbon emissions in China by 2030: An analysis in relation to the economic growth rate

With less than ten years left to meet its pledge to peak carbon dioxide emissions(peak emissions hereafter) by 2030,China has entered a critical emissions reduction stage. How to meet this commitment in a context in which GDP per capita will double from 2020 by 2035 is a major decision-making issue for the Chinese government and people and one which warrants further study. To reveal the relationships between the GDP growth rate, the rate of decrease of carbon intensity and the time to reach peak emissions, this study translates the question as to “when China's carbon emissions peak will occur” into “how can one control the rate of carbon intensity decrease at a given GDP growth rate”. In the light of the results of a random forest algorithm used to identify and project the key drivers of carbon intensity in China, a mathematical model was developed to simulate different scenarios relating to decreases in carbon intensity. The date at which Chinese carbon emissions will peak is predicted by comparing the rate of decrease of carbon intensity with the GDP growth rate. The results show that the time to peak emissions depends on the relationship between the rate of decrease of carbon intensity and the GDP growth rate, where the former depends mainly on the energy structure and policy. If China's annual GDP growth rate were 5.0% during the 15th Five-Year Plan, and if the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption were 23.0% or above, China's carbon emissions will peak before2030. If the share of non-fossil fuels were 20.0% or less, China might not be able to reach its 2030 target. In this latter case an acceleration in the pace of energy restructuring would be required to reach peak emissions before 2030. The projected peak emissions scenarios suggest that the carbon peak will occur between 2025 to 2029, with average peak emissions of 11.2 billion tons and a distribution ranging from a minimum of 10.5 billion and a maximum of 11.9 billion tons. If the GDP growth rate were4.5%, 5.5% or 6.0% during the 15th Five-year Plan, the share of non-fossil energy must reach 23.0%, 25.0% or 27.0%,respectively, to ensure that emissions peak by 2030. The results of this study provide a series of reference points for China's pursuit of feasible pathways to peak carbon emissions by 2030.

The role of new energy in carbon neutral

Carbon dioxide is an important medium of the global carbon cycle,and has the dual properties of realizing the conversion of organic matter in the ecosystem and causing the greenhouse effect.The fixed or available carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is defined as"gray carbon",while the carbon dioxide that cannot be fixed or used and remains in the atmosphere is called"black carbon".Carbon neutral is the consensus of human development,but its implementation still faces many challenges in politics,resources,technology,market,and energy structure,etc.It is proposed that carbon replacement,carbon emission reduction,carbon sequestration,and carbon cycle are the four main approaches to achieve carbon neutral,among which carbon replacement is the backbone.New energy has become the leading role of the third energy conversion and will dominate carbon neutral in the future.Nowadays,solar energy,wind energy,hydropower,nuclear energy and hydrogen energy are the main forces of new energy,helping the power sector to achieve low carbon emissions."Green hydrogen"is the reserve force of new energy,helping further reduce carbon emissions in industrial and transportation fields.Artificial carbon conversion technology is a bridge connecting new energy and fossil energy,effectively reducing the carbon emissions of fossil energy.It is predicted that the peak value of China’s carbon dioxide emissions will reach 110×10^(8) t in 2030.The study predicts that China’s carbon emissions will drop to 22×10^(8) t,33×10^(8) t and 44×10^(8) t,respectively,in 2060 according to three scenarios of high,medium,and low levels.To realize carbon neutral in China,seven implementation suggestions have been put forward to build a new"three small and one large"energy structure in China and promote the realization of China’s energy independence strategy.

Numerical study of strained InGaAs quantum well lasers emitting at 2.33 μm using the eight-band model

We investigate the band structure of a compressively strained In（Ga）As/In0.53Ga0.47As quantum well （QW） on an InP substrate using the eight-band k.p theory. Aiming at the emission wavelength around 2.33 μm, we discuss the influences of temperature, strain and well width on the band structure and on the emission wavelength of the QW. The wavelength increases with the increase of temperature, strain and well width. Furthermore, we design an InAs /In0.53Ga0.47As QW with a well width of 4.1 nm emitting at 2.33 μm by optimizing the strain and the well width.

The prospect of natural gas hydrate(NGH)under the vision of Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China

To achieve the goals of Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Carbon Neutrality,China's energy system will continue to accelerate the transition to a clean and low-carbon one.As the cleanest fossil fuel,natural gas is regarded as an inevitable choice for China to build a clean,safe,efficient,and low-carbon energy system and fulfill the goal of“double carbon”.However,the domestic conventional natural gas supply remains rigid while the stimulation of unconventional natural gas is still limited.If we have a firm grip on the principal line of“understanding the ocean–developing resources–ensuring security”to realize the large-scale development of 85 trillion square meters of NGH in the South China Sea,then we could not only greatly reduce China‘s foreign dependence on natural gas,but also guarantee the safety of China‘s natural gas multi-path supply and safeguard the sovereignty of the South China Sea.Thus,the goal of Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Carbon Neutrality can be achieved in no time.

Peak C0_(2)emission in the region dominated by coal use and heavy chemical industries:a case study of Dezhou city in China

This paper studies the pathways of peakingCO_(2) emissions of Dezhou city in China, by employing abottom-up sector analysis model and considering futureeconomic growth, the adjustment of the industrialstructure, and the trend of energy intensity. Two scenarios(a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a CO_(2) mitigationscenario (CMS)) are set up. The results show that in theBAU scenario, the final energy consumption will peak at25.93 million tons of coal equivalent (Mtce) (16% growthversus 2014) in 2030. In the CMS scenario, the finalenergy will peak in 2020 at 23.47 Mtce (9% lower versuspeak in the BAU scenario). The total primary energyconsumption will increase by 12% (BAU scenario) anddecrease by 3% (CMS scenario) in 2030, respectively,compared to that in 2014. In the BAU scenario, CO_(2)emission will peak in 2025 at 70 million tons of carbondioxide (MtCO_(2)), and subsequently decrease gradually in2030. In the CMS scenario, the peak has occurred in 2014,and 60 MtCO_(2) will be emitted in 2030. Active policiesincluding restructuring the economy, improving energyefficiency, capping coal consumption, and using more low・carbon /carbon free fuel are recommended in Dezhou citypeaked CO_(2) emission as early as possible.

Theoretical Investigations on the Electronic and Optical Properties of Luminescent Poly（alkylthiophene-co-pyridine）

Quantum-chemical techniques were applied to investigate a series of conjugated polymers： poly（3-octylthien-2,5-ylene-co-pyrid-2,6-ylene） （pl）, poly[pyrid-2,6-ylenebis（3-octylthien-2,5-ylene）] （p2） and poly[pyrid-2,5-ylenebis（3-octylthien-2,5-ylene）] （p3） comprising alternating n-excessive 3-alkylthiophene and n-deficient meta- or para-linked pyridine moieties. Their ground state and excited state structures were optimized with density functional theory B3LYP method, and the optical properties were calculated by the time-dependent density functional theory （TD-DFT） and ZINDO/S methods. Their HOMO-LUMO gaps （An-L）, the lowest excitation energies （Eex）, ionization potentials （IP） and electron affinities （EA） were obtained by extrapolating those of the polymers to the inverse chain length equal to zero （1/n=0）. The calculated results showed that the decrease of pyridylene content increased the HOMO level and decreased the LUMO level while the para-linkage further contributed to it. The IP are in the order： p1〉p2〉p3 but EA are： p1〈p2〈p3. In addition, the decrease of the pyridylene content and the para-linked pyridylene in the backbone of the polythiophene resulted in a narrowed energy gap and bathochromic absorption and emission peaks.

Achieving Paris Agreement temperature goals requires carbon neutrality by middle century with far-reaching transitions in the whole society

The concept of carbon neutrality is much emphasized in IPCC Spatial Report on Global Warming of 1.5C in order to achieve the long-termtemperature goals as reflected in Paris Agreement.To keep these goals within reach,peaking the global carbon emissions as soon as possible andachieving carbon neutrality are urgently needed.However,global CO_(2)emissions continued to grow up to a record high of 43.1 Gt CO_(2)during2019,with fossil CO_(2)emissions of 36.5 Gt CO_(2)and land-use change emissions of 6.6 Gt CO_(2).In such case,the global carbon emissions mustdrop 32 Gt CO_(2)(7.6%per year)from 2020 to 2030 for the 1.5C warming limit,which is even larger than the COVID-induced reduction(6.4%)in global CO_(2)emissions during 2020.Recently,China has announced scaling up its national commitments,aiming to peak its CO_(2)emissionsbefore 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.Achieving these goals requires rapid and far-reaching transitions in the whole society.Onthe one hand,deeper emissions reduction in all sectors includes decarbonization of energy,electrification,increasing share of renewables,energyefficiency,sustainable land management,decarbonization of transport,reducing food loss and waste,as well as behavior and lifestyles changes.On the other hand,possible actions by removing CO_(2)from the atmosphere involves enlarging land and ocean net carbon sink,CO_(2)removaltechnologies(such as Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage),and CO_(2)capture,utilization and storage technologies,but should be cautionfor their scales and tradeoffs.

Will China achieve its 2060 carbon neutral commitment from the provincial perspective?

China has pledged to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.However,the significant variations of provincial carbon emissions make it unclear whether they can jointly fulfill the national carbon peak and neutrality goal.Thus,this study predicts the emission trajectories at provincial level in China by employing the extended STIRPAT(Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology)model to see the feasibility and time of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality.We found that most provinces can achieve peak emission before 2030 but challenging to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060,even considering the ecological carbon sink.The provincial neutrality time is concentrated between 2058 and 2070;the sooner the carbon emission peaks,the earlier the carbon neutral will be realized.The aggregated carbon emissions at provincial level show that China can achieve its carbon emission peak of 9.64-10.71 Gt before 2030,but it is unlikely to achieve the carbon neutrality goal before 2060 without carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS).With high CCUS development,China is expected to achieve carbon neutrality in 2054-2058,irrespective of the socio-economic scenarios.With low CCUS development,China's carbon neutrality target will be achieved only under the accelerated-improvement scenario,while it will postpone to 2061 and 2064 under the continued-improvement and the business-as-usual scenarios,respectively.