Inclusion of forestry offsets in emission trading schemes:insights from global experts

Emissions trading schemes(ETSs)have been a central component of international climate change policies,as a carbon pricing tool to achieve emissions reduction targets.Forest carbon offset credits have been leveraged in many ETSs to efficiently meet emission reduction targets,yet there is little knowledge about the perceptions,experiences,and challenges associated with the forest carbon offsetting in existing and pilot ETS.Given that the future inclusion of forest carbon offset in ETS management activities and policies will require strong support and acceptability among the institutions and experts involved in ETS,this study explores the experiences and lessons learned with 16 globally engaging experts representing major existing ETSs(North America,Europe,and New Zealand)and Chinese pilot ETSs towards the inclusion of forestry offsets,major concerns and challenges with existing implementation models.Findings revealed that many respondents particularly from North America,New Zealand,and Chinese pilot systems portrayed positive attitudes toward the inclusion of forestry carbon offsets and its role in contributing to a viable ETS,while European experts were not supportive.Respondents cited leakage,permanence,additionality,and monitoring design features as the major challenges and concerns that inhibit the expansion and inclusion of forest carbon offsetting.Respondents from Chinese pilot schemes referenced a unique set of challenges related to implementation,including the increasing cost of afforestation and reforestation projects,the uncertainty in the future supply and demand for their national Certified Emissions Reduction(CER)scheme and landowner engagement.Existing and future ETSs should learn from and address the challenges experienced by global experts and carbon pricing mechanisms to design,evaluate,or enhance their forest carbon offset programs for an effective and viable system that successfully contributes to GHG mitigation practices globally.We recommend inclusion of forest carbon offsets at the early stages of ETS improves the perceptions and experience of policy makers and practitioners toward the success and potential of forestry offsets in ETS ensuring familiarity and confidence in the mechanism.

Booming or sinking: How does an emission trading scheme affect enterprise value?

Unlike prior research that shows climate policy improves enterprise value,this study reveals the negative im‐pact of emission trading schemes(ETSs)on enterprise value under China’s unique institutional backdrop and identifies the mechanism through which this impact occurs.Data from a sample of 1267 listed companies in the Chinese stock market from 2005 to 2018 models are analyzed using difference-in-differences(DID)and propensity score matching methods(PSM).The results suggest that ETSs have an average short-term negative impact on enterprise value,which peaks in the second year of the ETS and diminishes from the fourth year.Further analysis reveals that ETSs did not cause significant operating losses for firms but reduced their value through the market response mechanism.ETS enterprises experienced significant declines in their annual stock transaction amounts and in returns on individual shares.This indicates that investors expect ETSs to ad‐versely affect pilot enterprises and accordingly adopt disinvestment strategies.Despite the short-term negative effect,ETSs effectively encourage enterprises to innovate green technologies to mitigate long-term carbon risk.

Policy Diffusion of the Emission Trading Scheme in China:Progress and Prospects

Chinese national emissions trading scheme(ETS)of greenhouse gas(GHG)was scheduled to start simulation trading in the power sector in 2020.Now it is good timing to review its progress and prospect.This study first examines policy diffusion in relation ETSs in China and particularly those for CO2 emissions,including the causes,determinants,process,and impacts.It argues in a centralized political system with highly and widely differentiated local circumstances,policy diffusion is progressed through a more complicated process,presented as a three-tier process in the paper,illustrating how international arrangement,national jurisdiction,and local administration interact and influence policy-making in a follower’s jurisdiction.China,which is now the biggest GHG emitter,has been preparing to establish a national ETS since 2017.So far,eight sub-national governments have introduced ETS pilot programs to feedback their experiences and to determine best practice for the national scheme.These eight pilots,especially the relatively successful ones,are found to be motivated by a competitive relationship that aims to stabilize its carbon market,which may eventually contribute to the progress of policy diffusion of the ETS in China.

For CO<SUB>2</SUB>Emission Trading in China, Can the Market Become a National One, Four Years after Creating Seven Local Markets?

In this paper, we assess the existing seven local pilot carbon emission trading schemes in China and analyse the factors determining whether China’s carbon market is successful in terms of handling substantial amounts of CO2 emissions rights, regulating the market and trading them at a reasonable price. The emission trading system is developing slowly in most of the participating provinces and cities. Prices tend to decline, while volumes trading slowly increase. The volatility is partially the result of regulation (the rights need to be renewed before a certain date) and partially due to government interventions in the market. Based on the assessment, recommendations are provided for China implementing a national carbon market, based on the experiences and lessons learnt from the seven local carbon emission trading schemes. Conditions for China to roll out the system and later improve the national emission trading scheme to replace the existing local emission trading schemes are formulated.

Design Issues for Linking Emissions Trading Schemes--A Qualitative Analysis for Schemes from Europe, Asia and North America

The paper focuses on links between the EU ETS （European Union Emissions Trading Scheme） and selected （domestic） greenhouse gas ETS （emissions trading schemes） from Asia and North America which could open up a perspective to keep the idea of emissions trading alive on a global scale and confront the actual uncertainty in future climate policy. The approach consists of investigating qualitatively the essential requirements of this alternative bottom-up approach. It is evaluated if variations or inconsistencies in the structure and design of domestic ETS as well as legal and institutional characteristics harm or facilitate the concept of linking with the EU ETS. The evaluation of systems leads to the exclusion of systems with voluntary character, relative caps, unrestricted borrowing and price caps from the group of potential linking candidates.

Comparison of the ＂Global Levy Scheme＂ with the ＂Emissions Trading Scheme＂ to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Shipping Emissions

Climate change is widely recognized as the major environmental problem facing the globe today. One of the most urgent environmental problems facing shipping industry is the reduction of GHG （greenhouse gas） emissions from its operations. Given the growing concern of the international community on ＂the deep reduction of global GHG emissions＂, it cannot be expected that the non-regulation of maritime GHG emissions can further continue. This paper investigates the main challenges and threats of the development of two MBMs （market-based measures） for the reduction of GHG emissions from international shipping, i.e., the ＂global levy scheme on maritime GHG emissions＂ and the ＂maritime emission trading scheme＂. A SWOT （strengths weaknesses opportunities threat） analysis is used, in this survey, to evaluate the environmental effectiveness as well as the easiness of implementation of the two policy options. Moreover, we make apparent their strengths and weaknesses concerning abatement of maritime GHG emissions. Given the fact that the discussion regarding the implementation of some MBMs with maritime GHG-emission reduction potential is still carried out with the exception of EEDI （energy efficiency design index） and SEEMP （ship energy efficiency management plan）, this paper＇s results present special significance, as they could be further analyzed and taken into account during the adoption of any future MBM for the reduction of maritime GHG emissions.

“双碳”目标下ETS与航空公司绿色全要素生产率

碳排放权交易机制(ETS)已经成为减少温室气体排放的重要市场手段和实现“双碳”目标的有效政策工具。以航空公司为研究对象,以2013—2022年为时间窗口,运用双重差分模型(DID)检验我国试点ETS政策对航空公司绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)的影响。研究发现,即使在免费配额为主导的宽松规制下,ETS依然在遏制航空碳排放、提升GTFP方面效果显著,尤其对低成本航空、民营航空、双重碳市场规制的公司。对航空公司减排而言,严格的基准制配额分配方式比宽松的祖父制有更好的倒逼效应。ETS主要通过促进环保投资和精细化管理提升航空公司GTFP。研究结论为科学评估碳交易试点的政策效应、提升民航全要素生产率、促进行业的绿色发展提供了学术参照和“定量解”。

我国用能权与碳排放权交易制度衔接问题研究

为实现“双碳”目标,我国在环境权益交易市场体系中分别建立起用能权交易与碳排放权交易制度,前者用于控制用能单位能源使用和消耗的上游环节,后者控制企业温室气体排放的下游环节,两制度有效衔接将有利于节能减排目标完成的高效协同。两类交易制度存在理论背景的一致性,但同时也面临着法律依据、配额分配方法等不一致的地方。因此,我国未来应从立法路径、制度安排及保障措施三个方面入手,为用能权交易制度与碳排放权交易制度衔接所面临的相关问题提供解决方案。

中国统一碳交易市场机制设计的优化与完善——基于EU-ETS机制及其运行的分析与选择

节能减排的低碳经济正在全球推广,以期通过经济调节手段来抑制日益增加的温室气体排放量,缓解全球气候变暖问题。《联合国气候变化框架公约》和《京都议定书》生效之后,欧盟作为全球节能减排的先行者建立了欧盟碳排放交易体系。作为参与国家最多、碳排放交易量最大的碳交易系统,欧盟碳排放交易系统取得了阶段性的瞩目成效。但作为前期的摸索者因无例可寻,碳排放交易体系在不同阶段因其政策、规则及分配等运行机制设定等方面的缺陷,暴露出其系统设计的一些缺陷和不足。中国计划在2016年建设全国统一碳排放交易系统,借鉴欧盟碳排放交易系统相对成熟的运行经验与教训,对优化和完善中国的碳交易运行机制设计具有重要的意义。

国际碳排放期权套期保值分析:以EU ETS为例

运用随机扩散模型研究EU ETS碳排放期货交易的套期保值。利用欧洲气候交易所(ECX)交易的欧盟排放配额(EUA)期权数据估计Black-Scholes、Heston模型和跳跃扩散模型参数,比较随机波动模型、BS模型和跳跃扩散模型拟合市场EUA期权价格、隐含波动率误差。实证研究表明:Heston随机波动模型更好地刻画EUA期权数据特征;最后给出DEC10期权合约基于Heston模型的套期保值曲面。

EU ETS碳排放交易的动态套期保值研究

本文采用一个二元跳跃广义条件异方差模型(ARMA-GARCH-Jump,以下简称GARCH-Jump)研究欧盟碳排放配额(EUA)期货的套期保值作用。研究表明,EUA价格出现跳跃的强度、幅度是时变的,且EUA现货价格波动对基差的影响是非对称的,GARCH-Jump模型能有效刻画EUA价格的波动聚类和尖峰特征,能更准确分析EUA现货价格与基差的联合动态特征。套期保值分析表明,通过GARCH-Jump模型得到的最优套期比率是时变的,GARCH-Jump套期比率能有效地降低投资组合收益的方差。

EU ETS碳排放权期货研究综述

全球气候问题受到各国政府及国际组织的广泛重视,减少温室气体排放已经成为国际社会关注的焦点之一。以欧盟排放交易体系(EU ETS)为例,将有关碳排放权期货的研究文献进行梳理,并按照碳排放权配额的分配方案、影响碳排放权配额价格的主要因素以及碳排放权期货价格和现货价格之间的关系三方面展开,最后简述国际碳排放权市场给我国带来的启示。

中国试点ETS的碳减排效果评估——基于分省高耗能工业子行业数据的分析

评估中国试点碳排放权交易体系(ETS)碳减排效果的现有研究普遍存在处理组样本选取范围明显大于试点ETS实际覆盖范围的问题。因此,文中对研究样本进行了更为严格的甄别:将2005—2017年各省的六大高耗能工业子行业中纳入试点企业的体量占相应子行业体量60%及以上的工业子行业作为处理组,将非试点地区的工业子行业作为对照组。基于双重差分法的分析表明,相较于对照组,试点ETS在启动后不仅促进了处理组工业子行业碳排放绝对量的下降,还促进了其碳排放强度的下降,说明试点ETS具有明显的碳减排效果。工业子行业的总产值和人均总产值分别与其碳排放量和碳排放强度呈现出一定的库兹涅茨曲线效应,工业子行业资产的流动性越强、盈利能力越强、面临的环境规制强度越大,越有利于碳减排。建议主管部门坚定依靠市场手段来控制温室气体排放,尽快将更多行业纳入全国ETS;另外,应提高体系运行相关数据的公开力度,定期对体系进行分析评估,并及时公布评估结果。

Application of Tradable Emission Permits in Europe

The purpose of this study is merely to review the current situation in the designing and implementation of the emission trading programs in Europe. Historical data show that although there is a series of shortcomings in their current functioning, employing such instruments for GHG reduction policy making is strongly expected to be efficient and effective. The European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) are just a few examples of the ambitious EU initiative that heavily relies on such instruments. We dwell on their operations and achievements by far and all the content in this article is expected to convince the Chinese government and regional public authorities to take positive actions and attitudes in promoting these instruments.

中国与欧盟碳市场建设理念与实践比较研究:历史沿革、差异分析与决策建议

全球越来越多国家利用市场机制作为治理气候环境的重要工具,推动了碳排放权交易市场的快速发展。迄今为止,欧盟碳市场减排成效最显著,交易规模最大;中国在提出双碳目标后也加速启动了全国碳市场建设。在梳理欧盟与中国碳市场的历史沿革与发展状况的基础上,聚焦碳市场设计的关键环节进行比较分析,剖析市场设计差异背后的深层原因,以期对中国碳市场今后的发展提供建议。中国的碳市场必须在经济发展与碳减排之间找到恰当的平衡点,逐步优化产业结构,激励行业绿色技术升级替代与低碳转型,以较小的社会成本实现减排效益的最大化,提高碳市场在实现国家碳达峰目标及碳中和愿景中应发挥的作用。

退出政府补贴与提高企业经济绩效能否兼得?--基于碳排放权交易试点准自然实验

在推动“碳中和”目标实现与启动全国碳排放权交易市场的背景下,本文利用2013年实施的碳排放权交易试点政策作为准自然实验,验证了利用市场机制解决外部性问题的环境规制方式可以达到双赢,即实现引导工业企业退出政府补贴与激励企业提高经济绩效的双重目标。本文获取碳排放权交易首批7个试点省份重点排放工业企业数据,通过双重差分方法验证了碳排放权交易制度可以通过剥离工业企业的政策性负担,硬化企业的预算软约束;在引导工业企业退出政府补贴的同时,却并未导致企业经济绩效的下滑。机制检验发现,碳排放权交易试点政策会率先激励试点重点排放工业企业增加R&D投入,并通过研发创新的补偿效应弥补企业的减排成本,提高工业企业的全要素生产率与经济绩效。本文还进一步发现碳排放权交易制度可以有效推进高耗能工业企业形成以优质企业为主导的发展格局,市场地位越高的优质企业业绩提升幅度越大,产业链上游企业、民营企业以及碳配额管理严格地区企业经济绩效的内部激励效应更强。本文的实证检验结果为如何处理好“碳中和”与经济高质量发展之间的关系提供了政策选择依据,也为全国碳排放权交易市场的建设提供了经验与借鉴。

考虑碳排放政策的港航企业减排策略研究

考虑政府采取碳税或碳排放权交易机制两种碳排放政策,基于供应链视角,构建港口与航运企业减排博弈模型,系统分析港航企业减排策略选择和政府碳排放政策选择问题。结果表明:当航运企业减排成本小于港口协助减排成本时,港航企业选择分散决策减排力度最优;反之,选择集中决策减排力度最优。在集中决策情形下,港航供应链减排力度与航运企业减排成本和港口协助减排成本成反比,和市场容量成正比;在分散决策情形下,港口协助减排成本不会影响港航供应链减排力度。在碳定价较低时,港航企业选择分散决策定价最优,选择集中决策利润最优;在碳定价较高时,则相反。无论政府采取何种碳排放政策,港航企业选择集中决策并且政府对港口减排进行补贴,会使港航供应链整体利润与减排力度同时达到最优。在未来碳定价大幅提升的情况下,政府采取碳排放权交易机制推动港航企业减排效果更好。

欧盟碳排放交易与《责任分担条例》对北京市碳排放管理的启示

欧盟在应对气候变化、减少温室气体排放方面建立起碳排放交易体系与《责任分担条例》相互配合、互为补充的成熟机制,取得了良好效果。本文梳理了欧盟碳减排机制整体框架,重点分析了《责任分担条例》的发展过程,总结其在分配方法、考核评估、弹性履约及应对气候变化的态度转变等方面的特点。以此为借鉴,提出对北京市碳达峰碳中和工作的政策建议。

碳排放交易机制下的综合能源系统低碳经济运行控制策略

目前二氧化碳排放量呈现增长势头,为响应“碳达峰、碳中和”的要求,阶梯型碳排放交易机制得到普遍应用。首先,建立了电力系统低碳经济运行模型对电力系统关键设备的碳排放特性进行分析。接着,提出了基于阶梯型碳排放交易机制的低碳经济运行策略。最后,建立碳排放关键设备的数学模型,以系统运行维护成本、碳排放成本、购能成本和弃风弃光惩罚成本最小为优化目标构建优化运行模型。算例分析表明,所提运行控制策略使得总成本降低10.3%,排除碳排放成本,其他成本增加了9.1%,但碳排放成本降低了50%,证明此种控制策略的引入能够促进电力系统的节能减排,在保证经济社会发展的同时,践行“双碳”目标。

天津碳交易试点的经济环境影响评估研究——基于中国多区域一般均衡模型TermCO_2

本文依据天津碳交易试点制度要素设置情景,模拟其对全市的经济环境影响,并深入分析行业以及行业之间的相互影响。结果显示:2014年天津碳交易试点将推动碳排放下降0.62%(103万t),均衡碳价格为14.2元/t;全市GDP将轻微下滑0.04%(6.2亿元),GDP对碳减排量的弹性系数为0.07,平均GDP损失为599元/t;42个行业中有41个行业受到负面影响,平均影响为-0.068%。因此,总体而言,天津市碳交易试点的减排效果较明显,而且负面经济影响有限。