Improvement of the prediction accuracy of polar motion using empirical mode decomposition

Previous studies revealed that the error of pole coordinate prediction will significantly increase for a prediction period longer than 100 days, and this is mainly caused by short period oscillations. Empirical mode decomposition （EMD）, which is increasingly popular and has advantages over classical wavelet decomposition, can be used to remove short period variations from observed time series of pole co- ordinates. A hybrid model combing EMD and extreme learning machine （ELM）, where high frequency signals are removed and processed time series is then modeled and predicted, is summarized in this paper. The prediction performance of the hybrid model is compared with that of the ELM-only method created from original time series. The results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms the pure ELM method for both short-term and long-term prediction of pole coordinates. The improvement of prediction accuracy up to 360 days in the future is found to be 24.91% and 26.79% on average in terms of mean absolute error （MAE） for the xp and yp components of pole coordinates, respectively.

Dynamic unbalance detection of cardan shaft in high-speed train based on EMD-SVD-NHT

Contrary to the aliasing defect between the adjacent intrinsic model functions(IMFs) existing in empirical model decomposition(EMD), a new method of detecting dynamic unbalance with cardan shaft in high-speed train was proposed by applying the combination between EMD, Hankel matrix, singular value decomposition(SVD) and normalized Hilbert transform(NHT). The vibration signals of gimbal installed base were decomposed through EMD to get different IMFs. The Hankel matrix constructed through the single IMF was orthogonally executed through SVD. The critical singular values were selected to reconstruct vibration signs on the basis of the key stack of singular values. Instantaneous frequencys(IFs) of reconstructed vibration signs were applied to detect dynamic unbalance with shaft and eliminated clutter spectrum caused by the aliasing defect between the adjacent IMFs, which highlighted the failure characteristics. The method was verified by test data in the unbalance condition of dynamic cardan shaft. The results show that the method effectively detects the fault vibration characteristics caused by cardan shaft dynamic unbalance and extracts the nature vibration features. With comparison to the traditional EMD-NHT, clarity and failure characterization force are significantly improved.

Trends in per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity in China 1949-2013

This paper proposes two concepts: the ecological footprint component index(EFCI) and the biocapacity component index(BCCI), based on the ecological footprint(EF) and Shannon entropy approaches. Per capita EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2013 are analyzed using empirical mode decomposition(EMD). Nonlinear models of per capita EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2013 are presented and their cycles and predictions from 2014 to 2023 are analyzed. The results over the last 65 years show:(1) EFCI in China has increased constantly with fluctuations, while BCCI has slowly decreased. Their annual change rates are 2.81% and-1.26%, respectively. The increasing EFCI indicates a gradual improvement in China's sustainable development potential; the decreasing BCCI indicates severe environmental and population challenges.(2) The cycles of per capita EFCI have periods of 5.4 and 16.3 years, while cycles of per capita BCCI have periods of 3.6, 13,and 21.7 years. The predictive models indicate that EFCI will first decrease, reaching 0.02725 in2014, and will subsequently increase to 0.03261 in 2021. BCCI will increase, reaching 0.01365 in2014 and 0.01541 in 2022. EFCI and BCCI will reach 0.03037 and 0.01537, respectively, in 2023.Policymakers should ensure that the EFCI and BCCI increase in 2023.