Runoff of arid and semi-arid regions simulated and projected by CLM-DTVGM and its multi-scale fluctuations as revealed by EEMD analysis

Runoff is a major component of the water cycle, and its multi-scale fluctuations are important to water resources management across arid and semi-arid regions. This paper coupled the Distributed Time Variant Gain Model （DTVGM） into the Community Land Model （CLM 3.5）, replacing the TOPMODEL-based method to simulate runoff in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. The coupled model was calibrated at five gauging stations for the period 1980-2005 and validated for the period 2006-2010. Then, future runoff （2010-2100） was simulated for different Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） emission scenarios. After that, the spatial distributions of the future runoff for these scenarios were discussed, and the multi-scale fluctuation characteristics of the future annual runoff for the RCP scenarios were explored using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition （EEMD） analysis method. Finally, the decadal variabilities of the future annual runoff for the entire study area and the five catchments in it were investigated. The results showed that the future annual runoff had slowly decreasing trends for scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 during the period 2010-2100, whereas it had a non-monotonic trend for the RCP 4.5 scenario, with a slow increase after the 2050s. Additionally, the future annual runoff clearly varied over a decadal time scale, indicating that it had clear divisions between dry and wet periods. The longest dry period was approximately 15 years （2040-2055） for the RCP 2.6 scenario and 25 years （2045-2070） for the RCP 4.5 scenario. However, the RCP 8.5 scenario was predicted to have a long dry period starting from 2045. Under these scenarios, the water resources situation of the study area will be extremely severe. Therefore, adaptive water management measures addressing climate change should be adopted to proactively confront the risks of water resources.

An approach of motion compensation and ISAR imaging for micro-motion targets

Inverse synthetic aperture radar(ISAR)imaging of the target with the non-rigid body is very important in the field of radar signal processing.In this paper,a motion compensation method combined with the preprocessing and global technique is proposed to reduce the influence of micro-motion components in the fast time domain,and the micro-Doppler(m-D)signal in the slow time domain is separated by the improved complex-valued empirical-mode decomposition(CEMD)algorithm,which makes the m-D signal more effectively distinguishable from the signal for the main body by translating the target to the Doppler center.Then,a better focused ISAR image of the target with the non-rigid body can be obtained consequently.Results of the simulated and raw data demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Multiscale prediction of wind speed and output power for the wind farm

This paper focuses on establishing the multiscale prediction models for wind speed and power in wind farm by the average wind speed collected from the history records. Each type of the models is built with different time scales and by different approaches. There are three types of them that a short-term model for a day ahead is based on the least squares support vector machine （LSSVM）, a medium-term model for a month ahead is on the combination of LSSVM and wavelet transform （WT）, and a long-term model for a year ahead is on the empirical mode decomposition （EMD） and recursive least square （RLS） approaches. The simulation studies show that the average value of the mean absolute percentage error （MAPE） is 4.91%, 6.57% and 16.25% for the short-term, the medium-term and the long-term prediction, respectively. The predicted data also can be used to calculate the predictive values of output power for the wind farm in different time scales, combined with the generator＇s power characteristic, meteorologic factors and unit efficiency under various operating conditions.