ANALYSIS OF AN SI EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH NONLINEAR TRANSMISSION AND STAGE STRUCTURE

A disease transmission model of SI type with stage structure is formulated. The stability of disease free equilibrium, the existence and uniqueness of an endemic equilibrium, the existence of a global attractor are investigated.

STABILITY ANALYSIS OF A COMPUTER VIRUS PROPAGATION MODEL WITH ANTIDOTE IN VULNERABLE SYSTEM

We study a proposed model describing the propagation of computer virus in the network with antidote in vulnerable system. Mathematical analysis shows that dynamics of the spread of computer viruses is determined by the threshold Ro. If Ro 〈 1, the virusfree equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if R0 〉 1, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Lyapunov functional method as well as geometric approach are used for proving the global stability of equilibria. A numerical investigation is carried out to confirm the analytical results. Through parameter analysis, some effective strategies for eliminating viruses are suggested.

AN SIRS EPIDEMIC MODEL

This paper considers an SIRS epidemic model that incorporates constant immigrati on rate, a general population size dependent contact rate and proportional tran sfer rate from the infective class to susceptible class.A threshold parameter σ is identified. If σ≤1, the disease free equilibrium is globally stab le. If σ>1, a unique endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. For two important special cases of mass action incidence and standard incidence, global stability of the endemic equilibrium is proved provided the threshold is larger than unity. Some previous results are extended and improved.

STABILITY OF AN SEIS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH CONSTANT RECRUITMENT AND A VARYING TOTAL POPULATION SIZE

This paper considers an SEIS epidemic model with infectious force in the latent period and a general population-size dependent contact rate. A threshold parameter R is identified. If R≤1, the disease-free equilibrium O is globally stable. If R〉1, there is a unique endemic equilibrium and O is unstable. For two important special cases of bilinear and standard incidence ,sufficient conditions for the global stability of this endemic equilibrium are given. The same qualitative results are obtained provided the threshold is more than unity for the corresponding SEIS model with no infectious force in the latent period. Some existing results are extended and improved.

TWO DIFFERENTIAL INFECTIVITY EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH NONLINEAR INCIDENCE RATE

This paper considers two differential infectivity（DI） epidemic models with a nonlinear incidence rate and constant or varying population size. The models exhibits two equilibria, namely., a disease-free equilibrium O and a unique endemic equilibrium. If the basic reproductive number σ is below unity,O is globally stable and the disease always dies out. If σ〉1, O is unstable and the sufficient conditions for global stability of endemic equilibrium are derived. Moreover,when σ〈 1 ,the local or global asymptotical stability of endemic equilibrium for DI model with constant population size in n-dimensional or two-dimensional space is obtained.

Mathematical Modeling of Malaria Transmission Dynamics: Case of Burundi

Burundi, a country in East Africa with a temperate climate, has experienced in recent years a worrying growth of the Malaria epidemic. In this paper, a deterministic model of the transmission dynamics of malaria parasite in mosquito and human populations was formulated. The mathematical model was developed based on the SEIR model. An epidemiological threshold, R0, called the basic reproduction number was calculated. The disease-free equilibrium point was locally asymptotically stable if R0 < 1 and unstable if R0 > 1. Using a Lyapunov function, we proved that this disease-free equilibrium point was globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction number is less than unity. The existence and uniqueness of endemic equilibrium were examined. With the Lyapunov function, we proved also that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 > 1. Finally, the system of equations was solved numerically according to Burundi’s data on malaria. The result from our model shows that, in order to reduce the spread of Malaria in Burundi, the number of mosquito bites on human per unit of time (σ), the vector population of mosquitoes (Nv), the probability of being infected for a human bitten by an infectious mosquito per unit of time (b) and the probability of being infected for a mosquito per unit of time (c) must be reduced by applying optimal control measures.

Stability Analysis of Bubonic Plague Model with the Causing Pathogen Yersinia pestis in the Environment

Bubonic plague is a serious bacterial disease, mainly transmitted to human beings and rodents through flea bite. However, the disease may also be transmitted upon the interaction with the infected materials or surfaces in the environment. In this study, a deterministic model for bubonic plague disease with Yersinia pestis in the environment is developed and analyzed. Conditions for existence and stability of the equilibrium points are established. Using Jacobian method disease free equilibrium (DFE) point, E0 was proved to be locally asymptotically stable. The Metzler matrix method was used to prove that the DFE was globally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1. By applying Lyapunov stability theory and La Salles invariant principle, we prove that the endemic equilibrium point of system is globally asymptotically stable when R0 > 1. Numerical simulations are done to verify the analytical predictions. The results show that bubonic plague can effectively be controlled or even be eradicated if efforts are made to ensure that there are effective and timely control strategies.

Spontaneous Infection and Periodic Evolving of Domain in a Diffusive SIS Epidemic Model

In this paper, we consider a susceptible-infective-susceptible(SIS) reaction-diffusion epidemic model with spontaneous infection and logistic source in a periodically evolving domain. Using the iterative technique,the uniform boundedness of solution is established. In addition, the spatial-temporal risk index R0(ρ) depending on the domain evolution rate ρ(t) as well as its analytical properties are discussed. The monotonicity of R0(ρ)with respect to the diffusion coefficients of the infected dI, the spontaneous infection rate η(ρ(t)y) and interval length L is investigated under appropriate conditions. Further, the existence and asymptotic behavior of periodic endemic equilibria are explored by upper and lower solution method. Finally, some numerical simulations are presented to illustrate our analytical results. Our results provide valuable information for disease control and prevention.

Dynamics of a SIR epidemic model with variable recruitment and quadratic treatment

The dynamical behavior of a variable recruitment SIR model has been investigated with the nonlinear incidence rate and the quadratic treatment function for a horizontally transmitted infectious disease that sustains for a long period(more than one year).For a long duration,we have incorporated human fertility in variable recruitment.The societal effort,i.e.all types of medical infrastructures,have a vital role in controlling such a disease.For this reason,we have considered the quadratic treatment function,which divides the system into two subsystems.We have established the existence and stability of different equilibrium points that depend mainly on the societal effort parameter in both subsystems and also global stability.Different rich dynamics such as forward bifurcation,Hopf bifurcation,limit cycle,and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation of co-dimension 2 have been established by using bifurcation theory and the biological significance of these dynamics has been explained.Different numerical examples have been considered to illustrate the theoretical results.Finally,we have discussed the advantage of our model with the model by Eckalbar and Eckalbar[Nonlinear Anal.:Real World Appl.12(2011)320332].

Two-group SIR Epidemic Model with Stochastic Perturbation

A stochastic two-group SIR model is presented in this paper. The existence and uniqueness of its nonnegative solution is obtained, and the solution belongs to a positively invariant set. Further- more, the globally asymptotical stability of the disease-free equilibrium is deduced by the stochastic Lyapunov functional method if R0 〈 1, which means the disease will die out. While if R0 〉 1, we show that the solution is fluctuating around a point which is the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model in time average. In addition, the intensity of the fluctuation is proportional to the intensity of the white noise. When the white noise is small, we consider the disease will prevail. At last, we illustrate the dynamic behavior of the model and their approximations via a range of numerical experiments.

The asymptotic behavior of a stochastic multigroup SIS model

In this paper, we explore the long time behavior of a multigroup Susceptible-Infected Susceptible （SIS） model with stochastic perturbations. The conditions for the disease to die out are obtained. Besides, we also show that the disease is fluctuating around the endemic equilibrium under some conditions. Moreover, there is a stationary distribution under stronger conditions. At last, some numerical simulations are applied to support our theoretical results.

Modeling transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease

Ebola virus disease （EVD） has emerged as a rapidly spreading potentially fatal disease. Several studies have been performed recently to investigate the dynamics of EVD. In this paper, we study the transmission dynamics of EVD by formulating an SEIR-type transmission model that includes isolated individuals as well as dead individuals that are not yet buried. Dynamical systems analysis of the model is performed, and it is consequently shown that the disease-free steady state is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number, R0 is less than unity. It is also shown that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium when R0 〉 1. Using optimal control theory, we propose control strategies, which will help to eliminate the Ebola disease. We use data fitting on models, with and without isolation, to estimate the basic reproductive numbers for the 2014 outbreak of EVD in Liberia and Sierra Leone.

A MODEL FOR CONTROL OF HIV/AIDS WITH PARENTAL CARE

In this study we investigate the HIV/AIDS epidemic in a population which experiences a significant flow of immigrants. We derive and analyze a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of HIV infection among the immigrant youths and how parental care can minimize or prevent the spread of the disease in the population. We analyze the model with both screening control and parental care, then investigate its stability and sensitivity behavior. We also conduct both qualitative and quantitative analyses. It is observed that in the absence of infected youths, disease-free equilibrium is achievable and is globally asymptotically stable. We establish optimal strategies for the control of the disease with screening and parental care, and provide numerical simulations to illustrate the analytic results.

GLOBAL STABILITY OF AN EPIDEMIC MODEL FOR VECTOR-BORNE DISEASE

This paper considers an epidemic model of a vector-borne disease which has the vectormediated transmission only. The incidence term is of the bilinear mass-action form. It is shown that the global dynamics is completely determined by the basic reproduction number Ro. If Ro ≤ 1, the diseasefree equilibrium is globally stable and the disease dies out. If Ro 〉 1, a unique endemic equilibrium is globally stable in the interior of the feasible region and the disease persists at the endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.

DYNAMICS OF A KIND OF RIFT VALLEY FEVER MODEL

A novel mathematical model of the epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) is studied, which is an ordinary differential equation model for a population of mosquito species and the hosts. A disease-free equilibrium is discussed as well as its local stability. The prevalence of disease is proved under some conditions. Finally the vertical transmission is considered in a model for such a mosquito population.

GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF A DIFFERENTIAL SUSCEPTIBILITY MODEL

An SIS epidemiological model in a population of varying size with two dissimilar groups of susceptible individuals has been analyzed. We prove that all the solutions tend to the equilibria of the system. Then we use the Poincar~ Index theorem to determine the number of the rest points and their stability properties. It has been shown that bistability occurs for suitable values of the involved parameters. We use the perturbations of the pitchfork bifurcation points to give examples of all possible dynamics of the system. Some numerical examples of bistability and hysteresis behavior of the systeIn has been also provided.