A review of China's energy consumption structure and outlook based on a long-range energy alternatives modeling tool

China＇s energy consumption experienced rapid growth over the past three decades, raising great concerns for the future adjustment of China＇s energy consumption structure. This paper first presents the historical evidence on China＇s energy consumption by the fuel types and sectors. Then, by establishing a bottom-up accounting framework and using long-range energy alternatives plan- ning energy modeling tool, the future of China＇s energy consumption structure under three scenarios is forecast. According to the estimates, China＇s total energy con- sumption will increase from 3014 million tonnes oil equivalent （Mtoe） in 2015 to 4470 Mtoe in 2040 under the current policies scenario, 4040 Mtoe in 2040 under the moderate policies scenario and 3320 Mtoe in 2040 under the strong policies scenario, respectively, lower than those of the IEA＇s estimations. In addition, the clean fuels （gas, nuclear and renewables） could be an effective alternative to the conventional fossil fuels （coal and oil） and offer much more potential. Furthermore, the industry sector has much strong reduction potentials than the other sectors. Finally, this paper suggests that the Chinese government should incorporate consideration of adjustment of the energy consumption structure into existing energy policies and measures in the future.

Optimization of energy consumption structure based on carbon emission reduction target:A case study in Shandong Province,China

It is urgent to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions to actively deal with global warming.This paper investigates Shandong Province,a typical province of energy consumption,as the research object,aiming to optimize total energy consumption and consumption structure in the future planning year.This paper constructs a methodological system to optimize energy consumption structure in Shandong Province,using a scenario combination of system dynamics(SD)prediction and analysis based on the coupling of key scenario elements affecting different energy consumption from different perspectives.Structural equation modeling and SD sensitivity analysis indicate an overlap between key factors restricting energy consumption.Pairing the key scenario factors can better reflect the internal mechanism of energy consumption development.Based on this,21 scenarios based on different combinations of the key elements are constructed.Through SD prediction and analysis,the most suitable scenario mode for optimizing energy consumption structure in Shandong Province is selected.This paper provides a suitable development range for the average gross domestic product growth rate,the proportion of secondary industry,energy consumption intensity of secondary industry,and the urbanization rate for Shandong Province.This paper can provide a reference for similar research and the government in formulating the optimization scheme of energy consumption structure.

Analysis on Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in Agriculture and Reduction Measures in Guangdong Province

[Objective] The aim was to study CO2 emissions from energy consumption in agricultural production in Guangdong Province and put forward feasible reduction measures.[Method] Based on the data from China Energy Statistical Yearbook and Guangdong Statistical Yearbook,CO2 emissions from agricultural energy use in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2009 was estimated by using the formula of carbon emissions recommended by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),and corresponding reduction measures were put forward.[Result] With the rapid increase of agricultural output and energy consumption,CO2 emissions from energy consumption in agricultural production in Guangdong Province showed increasing trend from 2000 to 2009,that is to say,increasing from 423.63×104 t C million tons in 2000 to 605.99×104 t C in 2009,with annual growth rate of 4.1%.Meanwhile,carbon emissions intensity during energy consumption in agriculture went down in recent ten years,in other words,decreasing from 0.424 t C/×104 yuan in 2000 to 0.301 t C/×104 yuan in 2009,and its annual decreasing rate was 3.7%.The variation of CO2 emissions from energy consumption in agriculture mainly resulted from the increase of agricultural output,improvement of energy utilization efficiency,high carbonization in agricultural energy consumption structure and so forth.Therefore,in order to reduce CO2 emissions from energy consumption in agriculture,it is necessary to vigorously develop rural renewable energy,develop and popularize advanced technology for energy utilization,advance the energy conservation of agricultural machines,establish and improve the macroeconomic control mechanism for carbon emissions from the energy consumption in agricultural production in the further.[Conclusion] The study could provide references for the establishment of policy about reducing carbon emissions from agricultural energy consumption in Guangdong Province.

Research on Energy Consumption of Traditional Natural Villages in Transition: A Case Study in Zhejiang Province

Traditional agriculture is in the direction of increasing integration of the primary industry, secondary industry, and tertiary industry in Zhejiang province. A survey was undertaken on energy consumption of traditional natural villages by taking Anji Ligeng village for an example. This paper firstly studied rural buildings, rural family structure, occupants’ activity and the usage of household appliances in the form of a questionnaire. Then, the household energy resource structure and energy consumption structure were analyzed and compared with other surveys. The results show that, the electric energy consumption was 6 kWh/(m2•a), which was far less than urban residential household. In rural household energy resource structure, the proportion of non-commercial energy resource was higher than commercial energy resource. Firewood accounted for 83%, electricity for 12%, LPG for 3% and solar energy for 2%. In building energy consumption structure, cooking and hot water took up 33%, appliances 31%, lighting 20%, heating 12%, cooling 4%. In all influential factors, frequently used area, number of air conditioner per household and building function were obviously correlated with energy consumption;income, building shape factor and window to wall area ratio had no correlation with energy consumption in the low energy consumption area.

Path selection and mechanism innovation of improving railway energy efficiency–from foreign experience and Chinese practice

Purpose–Under the dual pressure of resources and environment,many countries have focused on the role of railways in promoting low-carbon development of integrated transportation and of even the whole society.This paper aims to provide a comprehensive study on methods to improve railway energy efficiency in other national railways and achievements made by China’s railways in the past practice,and then to propose ways in which in the future China’s railways could rationally select the path of improving energy efficiency regarding the needs of the nation’s ever-shifting development and carry out the re-engineering for mechanism innovation in energy conservation and emission reduction process.Design/methodology/approach–This paper first studies other national railways that have tried to promote the improvement of railway energy efficiency by the ways of technology,management and structural reconstruction to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions.Among them,the effect of structural energy conservation and emission reduction has become more prominent.It has become the main energy conservation and emission reduction measure adopted by foreign railway sectors.The practice of energy conservation and emission reduction of railways in various countries has tended to shift from a technical level to a structural one.Findings–Key aspects in improving energy efficiency include re-optimization of energy structure,reinnovation of energy-saving technologies and optimization of transportation organization.Path selection includes continuing to promote electrified railway construction,increasing the use of new and renewable energy sources,and promoting the reform of railway transportation organizations.Originality/value–This paper provides further challenges and research directions in the proposed area and has referential value for the methodologies,approaches for practice in a Chinese context.To achieve the expected goals,relevant supporting policies and measures need to be formulated,including actively guiding integrated transportation toward railway-oriented development,promoting innovation in energy-saving and emission reduction mechanisms and strengthening policy incentives,focusing on improving the energy efficiency of railways through market behavior.At the same time,it is necessary to pay attention to new phenomena in the railway industry for track and analysis.