Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.

Analysis of the Concept of Environmental Carrying Capacity

From the concept of carrying capacity proposed in the early 20th century to as an important tool for describing development constraints in the 21st century,many scholars have conducted extensive and detailed research on carrying capacity at different levels,but the carrying capacity system has not yet formed a unified theoretical and methodological system.By summarizing and analyzing the existing literature,based on the viewpoints of Mr.Gao Jixi and Mr.Zeng Weihua,the relationship between different mainstream carrying capacities is analyzed,and finally a system for summarizing the elements of different carrying capacities is provided,which to some extent serves as a reference for scholars who have just come into contact with the concept of carrying capacity.It is thought that:①the research on ecological carrying capacity covers the scope of cities,and the research at the urban level complements the neglected and insufficient areas of ecological research.②The main difference among ecological carrying capacity,urban comprehensive carrying capacity and resource environment carrying capacity lies in the different research scopes.In the mainstream view,environmental carrying capacity and resource carrying capacity are summarized under the framework of different research scopes.Water environment carrying capacity,land resource carrying capacity and other single factor carrying capacity are special in-depth studies of environment and resource carrying capacity.③Ecological carrying capacity at the ecological level includes environmental carrying capacity and resource carrying capacity.At the urban level,urban ecology is equivalent to urban environment to a certain extent,and resources can be classified into urban environmental carrying capacity as an environmental element.

Resources development and tourism environmental carrying capacity of ecotourism industry in Pingdingshan City, China

Background:Pingdingshan City has unique and rich ecotourism landscape.To realize the sustainable development of ecotourism industry in Pingdingshan and simultaneously achieve economic development and environmental protection in the development of ecotourism resources,literature analysis and field investigation methods were used to deeply explore the advantages and problems of Pingdingshan in the process of resources development in this study.Then,the indicator system of environmental carrying capacity of Pingdingshan was established and environmental carrying capacity was calculated to understand the local tourism environmental carrying capacity.Results:The development of ecotourism resources in Pingdingshan has advantages of natural conditions,convenient transportation,and sound infrastructure,but there were also problems,such as insufficient resources protection and unscientific management system.After calculation,it was found that the environmental carrying capacity of ecotourism in Pingdingshan was overloaded.Conclusion:This study reveals the development of the tourism industry in Pingdingshan and provides a basis for the future development of Pingdingshan tourism resources,which is beneficial to the sustainable development of the local ecotourism industry.

Carrying capacity of water environment in public tourism resources based on matter-element model

When water environmental carrying capacity of public resource tourist attraction is studied, the two action subjects of tourists and local residents should be discussed, and comprehensive consideration must be given to the influence of these two on water environment. On the basis of water resource carrying capacity and water quality carrying capacity, water environmental carrying capacity index of public resource tourist attraction was constructed, the model for the water environmental carrying capacity of public resource tourist attraction was established on the basis of matter-element model and analytical hierarchy process. By applying this method, water environmental carrying capacity situation of a certain public resource tourist attraction can be gained, moreover, situations about several aspects of water environmental carrying capacity can be evaluated.

Safety Evaluation of Water Environment Carrying Capacity of Five Cities in Ningxia Based on Ecological Footprint of Water Resources

[Objectives]To make safety evaluation of water environment carrying capacity of five cities in Ningxia based on ecological footprint of water resources.[Methods]With the help of the grey relational model,15 indicators were selected from the natural,economic,and social aspects,and the most influential factors in the three fields were selected.Based on the concept of ecological priority,the water resources carrying capacity of the five cities in Ningxia from 2010 to 2019 was calculated with the help of the water resources ecological footprint model.Then,the indicators of the water resources ecological footprint model were coupled with the existing indicators to establish a comprehensive evaluation indicator system.Finally,the changes of the water environment carrying capacity of the five cities in Ningxia were analyzed with the help of the principal component analysis(PCA).[Results]The ecological pressure of water resources and the ecological deficit of water resources in the five cities were relatively large.Specifically,Yinchuan City had the most obvious deficit of water resources but good carrying capacity;Zhongwei City had a large ecological deficit of water resources,poor carrying capacity,and the largest ecological pressure index of water resources;Guyuan City had low water resources ecological deficit,water resources ecological carrying capacity and water resources ecological pressure index.[Conclusions]Through the analysis of the coupling indicator system,it can be seen that the water environment carrying capacity of the five cities is in an upward trend,indicating that the water environment in each region tends to become better.

Water Environment Carrying Capacity of New Zhengdong District in Zhengzhou City

Taking sections of the Dongfeng Canal, the Xionger River and the Wei River in New Zhengdong District for example, this paper applied water environment capacity to analyze the carrying capacity of surface water environment in the east development zone of the city. The analysis shows that carrying capacity of surface water environment in the study area is not good, carrying capacity of 3 studied waters for TP, BOD_5 and COD is approaching to the limit. New Zhengdong District, in terms of industrial structure, should promote the projects with less water consumption, less or no discharge of wastewater, and also should enhance the sewage treatment, improve recycling rate of the reclaimed water, and reduce the negative impact of sewage and pollutant discharge on environment.

Ecological and environmental characteristics and management planning of Mawei Economic Development District

The natural and social background of the district was described, and the major ecological and environmental problems were analysed. The measures and planning for the ecological and environmental protection were recommended. Systematic analysis method and environmental mathematical models were suggested to be used for the ecological and environmental general planning in this paper.

The theory and method research on the double evaluation of land and space:A survey

By reviewing the theories and methods of resource and environmental carrying capacity evaluation and suitability evaluation of land and space development,it provides theoretical and technical support for rational layout and optimization of land and space development pattern.From the aspects of resource carrying capacity,environmental carrying capacity,the importance of ecological protection,the suitability of agricultural production,and the suitability of urban construction,we sort out domestic and foreign documents.The evaluation of resource carrying capacity has changed from single-factor evaluation to multi-factor comprehensive evaluation.At present,the optimization of land use pattern based on the“three-generation”space is still under exploration,it is not enough to systematize and summarize the thought of optimizing the spatial pattern of the national territory.The theoretical framework,model,method and index of“dual evaluation”of territorial space need to be improved continuously,it also needs the scientific analysis and cognition from the natural direction to the human location direction and the spatial equilibrium state as the new driving force.

An approach to the influence of industrial structure on urban ecological environment

dustrial structure is key link of man's action to ecological environmental system. Its combina-tion type and intensity determine, to a great extent, economic benefit, resources utilization efficiency andstress on environment. So the assessment to the rationality of industrial structure is of great importance. Inpresent paper, the research theories and ways on relationship between industrial structure and ecological en-vironmental systems were put forward. Environmental carrying capacity (ECC) was adopted to describequantitatively the relationship between man's social economic activity and environmental resources. At theend of this paper. analysis was made with Benxi City as an example.

Land development suitability analysis for transport planning evaluation and optimization in mountainous ecological region

Transportation planning is a critical component for creating an orderly,intensive,and sustainable pattern of land development.By comprehensively considering the potential and suitability of transport construction,a comprehensive method combining resources and environmental carrying capacity(RECC)and land development suitability(LDS)was developed by using techniques of GIS,analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and threedimensional magic cube.Taking Aba prefecture in Sichuan Province of Southwest China as a case study,LDS for transportation was analyzed from three aspects,including overall planning layout,different transport modes,and transportation projects.The results showed that the transport planning scales of most counties in Aba were suitable,and the order of LDS of different transport modes was railway>highway=superhighway>tourism track,which already included 42 new transportation projects.We found that two counties(Maoxian County and Jiuzhaigou County)should improve the ecological protection level of transportation,in which the railway network construction should be encouraged,and some transportation projects with low LDS should be postponed or constructed harmlessly.We suggest the combination of RECC and LDS for transportation could enhance the territorial space optimization and sustainable transport construction.

Evaluation, simulation, and optimization of land use spatial patterns for high-quality development: A case study of Zhengzhou city, China

High-intensity land use and resource overloaded-induced regional land use spatial pattern(LUSP)are essential and challenging for high-quality development.The empirical studies have shown that a scientific land uses spatial layout,and the supporting system should be based on a historical perspective and require better considering the double influence between the current characteristics and future dynamics.This study proposes a comprehensive framework that integrates the resource environment carrying capacity(RECC)and land use change(LUC)to investigate strategies for optimizing the spatial pattern of land use for high-quality development.China’s Zhengzhou city was the subject of a case study whose datasets include remote sensing,spatial monitoring,statistics,and open sources.Three significant results emerged from the analysis:(1)The RECC has significant spatial differentiation but does not follow a specific spatial law,and regions with relatively perfect ecosystems may not necessarily have better RECC.(2)From 2020 to 2030,the construction land and farmland will fluctuate wildly,with the former increasing by 346.21 km^(2) and the latter decreasing by 295.98 km^(2).(3)The study area is divided into five zones,including resource conservation,ecological carrying,living core,suitable construction,and grain supply zones,and each one has its LUSP optimization orientation.This uneven distribution of RECC reflects functional defects in the development and utilization of LUSP.In addition,the increase in construction land and the sharp decline of farmland pose potential threats to the sustainable development of the study area.Hence,these two elements cannot be ignored in the future high-quality development process.The findings indicate that the LUSP optimization based on dual dimensions of RECC and LUC is more realistic than a single-dimension solution,exhibiting the LUSP optimization’s effectiveness and applicability.

Sustainability of urban drainage management： a perspective on infrastructure resilience and thresholds

Urban wastewater infrastructures have been threatened by natural and socioeconomic disturbances. This study investigates infrastructure resilience against the risks of long-term changes rather than natural disasters. Urban expansion that leads to an increased urban runoff and massive population movements that cause fluctuations in domestic emissions are considered in this study. Pollution permits for water bodies are ＇adopted as constraints on wastewater infrastructures. A land use- based accounting method, combined with a grid-based database, is developed to map domestic discharge and urban runoff to service areas of wastewater treatment plants. The results of a case study on downtown Sanya, the most famous seashore tourist attraction in China, show that the average resilient values of three sub-catchment areas in 2010 were -0.57, 0.10 and 0.27, respectively, a significant spatial variation. The infrastructure in the Sanya River sub- region is the least flexible, and is more likely to fail due to unstable inflows. The resiliencies will increase to 0.59, 1.01 and 0.54, respectively, in 2020, a considerable improvement in robustness. The study suggests that infrastructure resilience needs to be taken into further consideration for urban planning and the related realm of urban governance to foster more robust wastewater management under various risks.

资源环境约束下中国经济增长可持续性模拟

Since the implementation of the economic reform and opening up policy in 1978,China has miraculously created long-term high-speed economic growth,but has also had to face the problem of excessive consumption of resources as well as an intensification of environmental pollution.As a result,China is now facing a slowdown in development.China must maintain a certain speed of development to realize its goal of being a powerful nation,and becoming a developed country by 2050.To this end,China is facing a transformation of its economic development.There is a need to agree on an expected economic growth rate,along with the corresponding development modes or means of regulation in the medium-and long-term periods.This study developed a systematic-dynamic model to simulate the coupling relationship between economic growth,development modes,and the environmental supply system,and explored the possible options for future economic growth as well as the resource use and environmental protection requirements(the main factors).The results showed that to achieve the development goal of becoming a developed country by 2050,while maintaining a good ecological environment,the suitable growth rate for China's economy is 3.8%–6.3%.Within this range,a growth rate of 3.8%–4.4%was found to be relatively safe,while a growth rate of 4.4%–6.3%required further technical progress.This study provides an early warning in regard to China's environmental and development status.The study was a response to the"Future Earth"framework document and,in terms of development speed,it developed a theoretical system for the determination of resource and environmental carrying capacity(RECC).

资源环境承载力综合评价方法在西藏产业结构调整中的应用

With the degradation of natural resources and environment caused by industrial development in some developing countries,the requirement of implementing a“social ecological”approach to development is imminent.Resource and environment carrying capacity provides a means of assessing regional development potential by measuring regional sustainable development in terms of economy,population and resources&environment.This study develops a conceptual framework for resource and environment carrying capacity estimation to support the co-development planning of industries,population and resources&environment.First,the framework constructs an index system for evaluating importance of industry or influence based on the role of industry played in the local socio-economic system.Then,the framework computes the quantitative relations through the importance of local industry,population size and resource utilization and environment effects,and subsequently estimates the resource and environment carrying capacity of the study area.With a particular attention to its land resources,water resources and environment,the Tibet case study shows that:the non-ferrous metal mining,tourism,liquor and refined tea industries play a pillar role in the Tibet’s socio-economic system;under each industrial structure,land resource carrying capacity is the weakest,and water resources carrying capacity is the strongest;to focus on tourism will improve local resource and environment carrying capacity.The research results provide a solid guide for Tibet government’s co-actions in industrial restructuring,ecological protection,and the pursuit of economic development.This study will contribute to bridge the gap between theoretical research and practical applications of resource and environment carrying capacity,and help local governments plan the regional“socio-ecological”sustainable development.