In this article, we establish the global stability of an endemic equilibrium of multi-group SIR epidemic models, which have not only an exchange of individuals between patches through migration but also cross patch in...In this article, we establish the global stability of an endemic equilibrium of multi-group SIR epidemic models, which have not only an exchange of individuals between patches through migration but also cross patch infection between different groups. As a result, we partially generalize the recent result in the article [16].展开更多
In this article, we establish the global asymptotic stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model with a class of nonlin- ear incidence rates and distributed delays. By u...In this article, we establish the global asymptotic stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model with a class of nonlin- ear incidence rates and distributed delays. By using strict monotonicity of the incidence function and constructing a Lyapunov functional, we obtain sufficient conditions under which the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the nonlinear inci- dence rate is a saturated incidence rate, our result provides a new global stability condition for a small rate of immunity loss.展开更多
An epidemic models of SIR type and SIRS type with general contact rate and constant immigration of each class were discussed by means of theory of limit system and suitable Liapunov functions. In the absence of input ...An epidemic models of SIR type and SIRS type with general contact rate and constant immigration of each class were discussed by means of theory of limit system and suitable Liapunov functions. In the absence of input of infectious individuals, the threshold of existence of endemic equilibrium is found.For the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium of corresponding SIR model, the sufficient and necessary conditions of global asymptotical stabilities are all obtained.For corresponding SIRS model, the sufficient conditions of global asymptotical stabilities of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are obtained. In the existence of input of infectious individuals, the models have no disease-free equilibrium. For corresponding SIR model, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; for corresponding SIRS model, the sufficient conditions of global asymptotical stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained.展开更多
We discuss in this paper a deterministic multi-group MSIR epidemic model with a vaccination rate, the basic reproduction number Ro, a key parameter in epidemiology, is a threshold which determines the persistence or e...We discuss in this paper a deterministic multi-group MSIR epidemic model with a vaccination rate, the basic reproduction number Ro, a key parameter in epidemiology, is a threshold which determines the persistence or extinction of the disease. By using Lyapunov function techniques, we show if Ro is greater than 1 and the deterministic model obeys some conditions, then the disease will prevail, the infective persists and the endemic state is asymptotically stable in a feasible region. If Ro is less than or equal to 1, then the infective disappear so the disease dies out. In addition, stochastic noises around the endemic equilibrium will be added to the deterministic MSIR model in order that the deterministic model is extended to a system of stochastic ordinary differential equations. In the stochastic version, we carry out a detailed analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic model. In addition, regarding the value of Ro, when the stochastic system obeys some conditions and Ro is greater than 1, we deduce the stochastic system is stochastically asymptotically stable. Finally, the deterministic and stochastic model dynamics are illustrated through computer simulations.展开更多
The probability is introduced to formulate the death of individuals, the recovery of the infected individuals and incidence of epidemic disease. Based on the assumption that the number of individuals in a population i...The probability is introduced to formulate the death of individuals, the recovery of the infected individuals and incidence of epidemic disease. Based on the assumption that the number of individuals in a population is a constant, discrete-time SI and SIS epidemic models with vital dynamics are established respectively corresponding to the case that the infectives can recover from the disease or not. For these two models. the results obtained in this paper show that there is the same dynarfiical behavior as their corresponding continuous ones. and the threshold determining its dynamical behavior is found. Below the threshold the epidemic disease dies out eventually, above the threshold the epidemic disease becomes an endemic eventually, and the number of the infectives approaches a positive constant.展开更多
A disease transmission model of SEIR type is discussed in a stochastic point of view. We start by formulating the SEIR epidemic model in form of a system of nonlinear differential equations and then change it to a sys...A disease transmission model of SEIR type is discussed in a stochastic point of view. We start by formulating the SEIR epidemic model in form of a system of nonlinear differential equations and then change it to a system of nonlinear stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The numerical simulation of the resulting SDEs is done by Euler-Maruyama scheme and the parameters are estimated by adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo and extended Kalman filter methods. The stochastic results are discussed and it is observed that with the SDE type of modeling, the parameters are also identifiable.展开更多
This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemi...This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.展开更多
In this paper, we treat the spread of COVID-19 using a delayed stochastic SVIRS (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Susceptible) epidemic model with a general incidence rate and differential susceptibility. We start wi...In this paper, we treat the spread of COVID-19 using a delayed stochastic SVIRS (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Susceptible) epidemic model with a general incidence rate and differential susceptibility. We start with a deterministic model, then add random perturbations on the contact rate using white noise to obtain a stochastic model. We first show that the delayed stochastic differential equation that describes the model has a unique global positive solution for any positive initial value. Under the condition R<sub>0</sub> ≤ 1, we prove the almost sure asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the model.展开更多
The coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019(COVID-19)has been spreading rapidly to all corners of the word,in a very complex manner.A key research focus is in predicting the development trend of COVID-19 scientifically t...The coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019(COVID-19)has been spreading rapidly to all corners of the word,in a very complex manner.A key research focus is in predicting the development trend of COVID-19 scientifically through mathematical modelling.We conducted a systematic review of epidemic prediction models of COVID-19 and the public health intervention strategies by searching the Web of Science database.55 studies of the COVID-19 epidemic model were reviewed systematically.It was found that the COVID-19 epidemic models were different in the model type,acquisition method,hypothesis and distribution of key input parameters.Most studies used the gamma distribution to describe the key time period of COVID-19 infection,and some studies used the lognormal distribution,the Erlang distribution,and theWeibull distribution.The setting ranges of the incubation period,serial interval,infectious period and generation time were 4.9-7 days,4.41-8.4 days,2.3-10 days and 4.4-7.5 days,respectively,and more than half of the incubation periods were set to 5.1 or 5.2 days.Most models assumed that the latent period was consistent with the incubation period.Some models assumed that asymptomatic infections were infectious or pre-symptomatic transmission was possible,which overestimated the value of R0.For the prediction differences under different public health strategies,the most significant effect was in travel restrictions.There were different studies on the impact of contact tracking and social isolation,but it was considered that improving the quarantine rate and reporting rate,and the use of protective face mask were essential for epidemic prevention and control.The input epidemiological parameters of the prediction models had significant differences in the prediction of the severity of the epidemic spread.Therefore,prevention and control institutions should be cautious when formulating public health strategies by based on the prediction results of mathematical models.展开更多
For some infectious diseases such as mumps,HBV,there is evidence showing that vaccinated individuals always lose their immunity at different rates depending on the inoculation time.In this paper,we propose an age-stru...For some infectious diseases such as mumps,HBV,there is evidence showing that vaccinated individuals always lose their immunity at different rates depending on the inoculation time.In this paper,we propose an age-structured epidemic model using a step function to describe the rate at which vaccinated individuals lose immunity and reduce the age-structured epidemic model to the delay differential model.For the age-structured model,we consider the positivity,boundedness,and compactness of the semiflow and study global stability of equilibria by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functionals.Moreover,for the reduced delay differential equation model,we study the existence of the endemic equilibrium and prove the global stability of equilibria.Finally,some numerical simulations are provided to support our theoretical results and a brief discussion is given.展开更多
Vaccination is a very important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseaVaccination is a very important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. A SIVS epidemic model with infection age and nonline...Vaccination is a very important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseaVaccination is a very important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. A SIVS epidemic model with infection age and nonlinear vaccination has been formulated in this paper. Using the theory of differential and integral equation, we show the local asymptotic stability of the infection-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium under some assumptions.展开更多
At present, the Omicron variant is still the dominant strain in the global novel coronavirus pneumonia pandemic, and has the characteristics of concealed transmission, which brings heavy pressure to the health systems...At present, the Omicron variant is still the dominant strain in the global novel coronavirus pneumonia pandemic, and has the characteristics of concealed transmission, which brings heavy pressure to the health systems of different countries. Omicron infections were first found in Chinese Mainland in Tianjin in December 2021, and Omicron epidemic broke out in many parts of China in 2022. In order to enable the country and government to make scientific and accurate decisions in the face of the epidemic, it is particularly important to predict and analyze the relevant factors of Omicron’s covert transmission. In this paper, based on the official data of Jilin City and the improved SEIR dynamic model, through parameter estimation, the contact infection probability of symptomatic infected persons in Omicron infected patients is 0.4265, and the attenuation factor is 0.1440. Secondly, the influence of infectious duration in different incubation periods, asymptomatic infected persons and other factors on the epidemic situation in this area was compared. Finally, the scale of epidemic development was predicted and analyzed.展开更多
Social network is the mainstream medium of current information dissemination,and it is particularly important to accurately predict its propagation law.In this paper,we introduce a social network propagation model int...Social network is the mainstream medium of current information dissemination,and it is particularly important to accurately predict its propagation law.In this paper,we introduce a social network propagation model integrating multiple linear regression and infectious disease model.Firstly,we proposed the features that affect social network communication from three dimensions.Then,we predicted the node influence via multiple linear regression.Lastly,we used the node influence as the state transition of the infectious disease model to predict the trend of information dissemination in social networks.The experimental results on a real social network dataset showed that the prediction results of the model are consistent with the actual information dissemination trends.展开更多
Because of the features involved with their varied kernels,differential operators relying on convolution formulations have been acknowledged as effective mathematical resources for modeling real-world issues.In this p...Because of the features involved with their varied kernels,differential operators relying on convolution formulations have been acknowledged as effective mathematical resources for modeling real-world issues.In this paper,we constructed a stochastic fractional framework of measles spreading mechanisms with dual medication immunization considering the exponential decay and Mittag-Leffler kernels.In this approach,the overall population was separated into five cohorts.Furthermore,the descriptive behavior of the system was investigated,including prerequisites for the positivity of solutions,invariant domain of the solution,presence and stability of equilibrium points,and sensitivity analysis.We included a stochastic element in every cohort and employed linear growth and Lipschitz criteria to show the existence and uniqueness of solutions.Several numerical simulations for various fractional orders and randomization intensities are illustrated.展开更多
Ross’ epidemic model describing the transmission of malaria uses two classes of infection, one for humans and one for mosquitoes. This paper presents a stochastic extension of a deterministic vector-borne epidemic mo...Ross’ epidemic model describing the transmission of malaria uses two classes of infection, one for humans and one for mosquitoes. This paper presents a stochastic extension of a deterministic vector-borne epidemic model based only on the class of human infectious. The consistency of the model is established by proving that the stochastic delay differential equation describing the model has a unique positive global solution. The extinction of the disease is studied through the analysis of the stability of the disease-free equilibrium state and the persistence of the model. Finally, we introduce some numerical simulations to illustrate the obtained results.展开更多
<span style="font-family:Verdana;">In this paper we build and analyze two stochastic epidemic models with death. The model assume</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span...<span style="font-family:Verdana;">In this paper we build and analyze two stochastic epidemic models with death. The model assume</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> that only susceptible individuals (S) can get infected (I) and may die from this disease or a recovered individual becomes susceptible again (SIS model) or completely immune (SIR Model) for the remainder of the study period. Moreover, it is assumed there are no births, deaths, immigration or emigration during the study period;the community is said to be closed. In these infection disease models, there are two central questions: first it is the disease extinction or not and the second studies the time elapsed for such extinction, this paper will deal with this second question because the first answer corresponds to the basic reproduction number defined in the bibliography. More concretely, we study the mean-extinction of the diseases and the technique used here first builds the backward Kolmogorov differential equation and then solves it numerically using finite element method with FreeFem++. Our contribution and novelty </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">are</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> the following: however the reproduction number effectively concludes the extinction or not of the disease, it does not help to know its extinction times because example with the same reproduction numbers has very different time. Moreover, the SIS model is slower, a result that is not surprising, but this difference seems to increase in the stochastic models with respect to the deterministic ones, it is reasonable to assume some uncertainly.</span></span></span>展开更多
An SIS epidemic model with a simple vaccination is investigated in this article, The efficiency of vaccine, the disease-related death rate and population dynamics are also considered in this model. The authors find tw...An SIS epidemic model with a simple vaccination is investigated in this article, The efficiency of vaccine, the disease-related death rate and population dynamics are also considered in this model. The authors find two threshold R0 and Rc (Rc may not exist). There is a unique endemic equilibrium for R0 〉 1 or Rc = R0; there are two endemic equilibria for Rc 〈 R0 〈 1; and there is no endemic equilibrium for Rn 〈 Rc 〈 1. When Rc exists, there is a backward bifurcation from the disease-free equilibrium for R0 = 1. They analyze the stability of equilibria and obtain the globally dynamic behaviors of the model. The results acquired in this article show that an accurate estimation of the efficiency of vaccine is necessary to prevent and controll the spread of disease.展开更多
In this article, an SIRS epidemic model spread by vectors (mosquitoes) which have an incubation time to become infectious is formulated. It is shown that a disease-free equilibrium point is globally stable if no end...In this article, an SIRS epidemic model spread by vectors (mosquitoes) which have an incubation time to become infectious is formulated. It is shown that a disease-free equilibrium point is globally stable if no endemic equilibrium point exists. Further, the endemic equilibrium point (if it exists) is globally stable with a respect "weak delay". Some known results are generalized.展开更多
A disease transmission model of SI type with stage structure is formulated. The stability of disease free equilibrium, the existence and uniqueness of an endemic equilibrium, the existence of a global attractor are in...A disease transmission model of SI type with stage structure is formulated. The stability of disease free equilibrium, the existence and uniqueness of an endemic equilibrium, the existence of a global attractor are investigated.展开更多
Objective This study was to investigate the HIV current situation in Liangshan prefecture, in order to predict prevalence and transmission trends. Methods Region-specific population, behavior, serosurveillence, and po...Objective This study was to investigate the HIV current situation in Liangshan prefecture, in order to predict prevalence and transmission trends. Methods Region-specific population, behavior, serosurveillence, and policy/program data (from 1995 to 2020) were gathered from various local and national organizations and applied to the Asian Epidemic Model (AEM) and used to derive estimates of future HIV prevalence, epidemic trends, and outcomes of intervention strategies. Results The AEM projections for 2020 included increased number of people living with HIV (PLHIV; to 136 617), increased HIV prevalence (2.51%), and 8037 deaths from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in this region. However, the overall HIV incidence rate (per 10 000) was projected to decline from 27 in 2015 to 22 in 2020, largely due to a predicted decrease in HIV infection rate (per 10 000) from 658 in 2013 to 621 in 2020 among intravenous drug users. In contrast, the cases of HIV infection per i0 000 was projected to increase from 420 in 2010 to 503 in 2020 among men who have sex with men, and from 8 in 2010 to 15 in 2020 among the general population. The predominant risk factor for HIV transmission over the next decade in Liangshan was casual sex. Community-based outreach strategies to reduce injected drug use and casual sex, and to promote condom use, were predicted as effective interventions to decrease HIV transmission. Conclusion Implementation of a comprehensive public health program, with targeting to the region-specific at-risk populations, will help to mitigate HIV/AIDS spread in Liangshan.展开更多
基金supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant Scientific Research (c), No. 24540219 to the first author, JSPS Fellows, No.237213 to the second author, and No. 222176 to the third author)
文摘In this article, we establish the global stability of an endemic equilibrium of multi-group SIR epidemic models, which have not only an exchange of individuals between patches through migration but also cross patch infection between different groups. As a result, we partially generalize the recent result in the article [16].
基金supported in part by JSPS Fellows,No.237213 of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science to the first authorthe Grant MTM2010-18318 of the MICINN,Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation to the second authorScientific Research (c),No.21540230 of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science to the third author
文摘In this article, we establish the global asymptotic stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model with a class of nonlin- ear incidence rates and distributed delays. By using strict monotonicity of the incidence function and constructing a Lyapunov functional, we obtain sufficient conditions under which the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the nonlinear inci- dence rate is a saturated incidence rate, our result provides a new global stability condition for a small rate of immunity loss.
文摘An epidemic models of SIR type and SIRS type with general contact rate and constant immigration of each class were discussed by means of theory of limit system and suitable Liapunov functions. In the absence of input of infectious individuals, the threshold of existence of endemic equilibrium is found.For the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium of corresponding SIR model, the sufficient and necessary conditions of global asymptotical stabilities are all obtained.For corresponding SIRS model, the sufficient conditions of global asymptotical stabilities of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are obtained. In the existence of input of infectious individuals, the models have no disease-free equilibrium. For corresponding SIR model, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; for corresponding SIRS model, the sufficient conditions of global asymptotical stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11326078)the Project of Science and Technology of Heilongjiang Province of China(Grant No.12531187)
文摘We discuss in this paper a deterministic multi-group MSIR epidemic model with a vaccination rate, the basic reproduction number Ro, a key parameter in epidemiology, is a threshold which determines the persistence or extinction of the disease. By using Lyapunov function techniques, we show if Ro is greater than 1 and the deterministic model obeys some conditions, then the disease will prevail, the infective persists and the endemic state is asymptotically stable in a feasible region. If Ro is less than or equal to 1, then the infective disappear so the disease dies out. In addition, stochastic noises around the endemic equilibrium will be added to the deterministic MSIR model in order that the deterministic model is extended to a system of stochastic ordinary differential equations. In the stochastic version, we carry out a detailed analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic model. In addition, regarding the value of Ro, when the stochastic system obeys some conditions and Ro is greater than 1, we deduce the stochastic system is stochastically asymptotically stable. Finally, the deterministic and stochastic model dynamics are illustrated through computer simulations.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.10531030,10701053)the Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province of China(No.2005Z010)
文摘The probability is introduced to formulate the death of individuals, the recovery of the infected individuals and incidence of epidemic disease. Based on the assumption that the number of individuals in a population is a constant, discrete-time SI and SIS epidemic models with vital dynamics are established respectively corresponding to the case that the infectives can recover from the disease or not. For these two models. the results obtained in this paper show that there is the same dynarfiical behavior as their corresponding continuous ones. and the threshold determining its dynamical behavior is found. Below the threshold the epidemic disease dies out eventually, above the threshold the epidemic disease becomes an endemic eventually, and the number of the infectives approaches a positive constant.
文摘A disease transmission model of SEIR type is discussed in a stochastic point of view. We start by formulating the SEIR epidemic model in form of a system of nonlinear differential equations and then change it to a system of nonlinear stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The numerical simulation of the resulting SDEs is done by Euler-Maruyama scheme and the parameters are estimated by adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo and extended Kalman filter methods. The stochastic results are discussed and it is observed that with the SDE type of modeling, the parameters are also identifiable.
基金the support of Prince Sultan University for paying the article processing charges(APC)of this publication.
文摘This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.
文摘In this paper, we treat the spread of COVID-19 using a delayed stochastic SVIRS (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Susceptible) epidemic model with a general incidence rate and differential susceptibility. We start with a deterministic model, then add random perturbations on the contact rate using white noise to obtain a stochastic model. We first show that the delayed stochastic differential equation that describes the model has a unique global positive solution for any positive initial value. Under the condition R<sub>0</sub> ≤ 1, we prove the almost sure asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the model.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51778382)the National Key R&D Program of China(2016YFC0700400).
文摘The coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019(COVID-19)has been spreading rapidly to all corners of the word,in a very complex manner.A key research focus is in predicting the development trend of COVID-19 scientifically through mathematical modelling.We conducted a systematic review of epidemic prediction models of COVID-19 and the public health intervention strategies by searching the Web of Science database.55 studies of the COVID-19 epidemic model were reviewed systematically.It was found that the COVID-19 epidemic models were different in the model type,acquisition method,hypothesis and distribution of key input parameters.Most studies used the gamma distribution to describe the key time period of COVID-19 infection,and some studies used the lognormal distribution,the Erlang distribution,and theWeibull distribution.The setting ranges of the incubation period,serial interval,infectious period and generation time were 4.9-7 days,4.41-8.4 days,2.3-10 days and 4.4-7.5 days,respectively,and more than half of the incubation periods were set to 5.1 or 5.2 days.Most models assumed that the latent period was consistent with the incubation period.Some models assumed that asymptomatic infections were infectious or pre-symptomatic transmission was possible,which overestimated the value of R0.For the prediction differences under different public health strategies,the most significant effect was in travel restrictions.There were different studies on the impact of contact tracking and social isolation,but it was considered that improving the quarantine rate and reporting rate,and the use of protective face mask were essential for epidemic prevention and control.The input epidemiological parameters of the prediction models had significant differences in the prediction of the severity of the epidemic spread.Therefore,prevention and control institutions should be cautious when formulating public health strategies by based on the prediction results of mathematical models.
基金supported by The National Natural Science Foundation of China[12026236,12026222,12061079,11601293,12071418]Science and Technology Activities Priority Program for Overseas Researchers in Shanxi Province[20210049]The Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province[201901D211160,201901D211461,201901D111295]。
文摘For some infectious diseases such as mumps,HBV,there is evidence showing that vaccinated individuals always lose their immunity at different rates depending on the inoculation time.In this paper,we propose an age-structured epidemic model using a step function to describe the rate at which vaccinated individuals lose immunity and reduce the age-structured epidemic model to the delay differential model.For the age-structured model,we consider the positivity,boundedness,and compactness of the semiflow and study global stability of equilibria by constructing appropriate Lyapunov functionals.Moreover,for the reduced delay differential equation model,we study the existence of the endemic equilibrium and prove the global stability of equilibria.Finally,some numerical simulations are provided to support our theoretical results and a brief discussion is given.
基金Supported by the NSF of China(No.10971178No.10911120387)+1 种基金the Sciences Foundation of Shanxi(20090110053)the Sciences Exploited Foundation of Shanxi(20081045)
文摘Vaccination is a very important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseaVaccination is a very important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. A SIVS epidemic model with infection age and nonlinear vaccination has been formulated in this paper. Using the theory of differential and integral equation, we show the local asymptotic stability of the infection-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium under some assumptions.
文摘At present, the Omicron variant is still the dominant strain in the global novel coronavirus pneumonia pandemic, and has the characteristics of concealed transmission, which brings heavy pressure to the health systems of different countries. Omicron infections were first found in Chinese Mainland in Tianjin in December 2021, and Omicron epidemic broke out in many parts of China in 2022. In order to enable the country and government to make scientific and accurate decisions in the face of the epidemic, it is particularly important to predict and analyze the relevant factors of Omicron’s covert transmission. In this paper, based on the official data of Jilin City and the improved SEIR dynamic model, through parameter estimation, the contact infection probability of symptomatic infected persons in Omicron infected patients is 0.4265, and the attenuation factor is 0.1440. Secondly, the influence of infectious duration in different incubation periods, asymptomatic infected persons and other factors on the epidemic situation in this area was compared. Finally, the scale of epidemic development was predicted and analyzed.
基金This work was supported by the 2021 Project of the“14th Five-Year Plan”of Shaanxi Education Science“Research on the Application of Educational Data Mining in Applied Undergraduate Teaching-Taking the Course of‘Computer Application Technology’as an Example”(SGH21Y0403)the Teaching Reform and Research Projects for Practical Teaching in 2022“Research on Practical Teaching of Applied Undergraduate Projects Based on‘Combination of Courses and Certificates”-Taking Computer Application Technology Courses as an Example”(SJJG02012)the 11th batch of Teaching Reform Research Project of Xi’an Jiaotong University City College“Project-Driven Cultivation and Research on Information Literacy of Applied Undergraduate Students in the Information Times-Taking Computer Application Technology Course Teaching as an Example”(111001).
文摘Social network is the mainstream medium of current information dissemination,and it is particularly important to accurately predict its propagation law.In this paper,we introduce a social network propagation model integrating multiple linear regression and infectious disease model.Firstly,we proposed the features that affect social network communication from three dimensions.Then,we predicted the node influence via multiple linear regression.Lastly,we used the node influence as the state transition of the infectious disease model to predict the trend of information dissemination in social networks.The experimental results on a real social network dataset showed that the prediction results of the model are consistent with the actual information dissemination trends.
文摘Because of the features involved with their varied kernels,differential operators relying on convolution formulations have been acknowledged as effective mathematical resources for modeling real-world issues.In this paper,we constructed a stochastic fractional framework of measles spreading mechanisms with dual medication immunization considering the exponential decay and Mittag-Leffler kernels.In this approach,the overall population was separated into five cohorts.Furthermore,the descriptive behavior of the system was investigated,including prerequisites for the positivity of solutions,invariant domain of the solution,presence and stability of equilibrium points,and sensitivity analysis.We included a stochastic element in every cohort and employed linear growth and Lipschitz criteria to show the existence and uniqueness of solutions.Several numerical simulations for various fractional orders and randomization intensities are illustrated.
文摘Ross’ epidemic model describing the transmission of malaria uses two classes of infection, one for humans and one for mosquitoes. This paper presents a stochastic extension of a deterministic vector-borne epidemic model based only on the class of human infectious. The consistency of the model is established by proving that the stochastic delay differential equation describing the model has a unique positive global solution. The extinction of the disease is studied through the analysis of the stability of the disease-free equilibrium state and the persistence of the model. Finally, we introduce some numerical simulations to illustrate the obtained results.
文摘<span style="font-family:Verdana;">In this paper we build and analyze two stochastic epidemic models with death. The model assume</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> that only susceptible individuals (S) can get infected (I) and may die from this disease or a recovered individual becomes susceptible again (SIS model) or completely immune (SIR Model) for the remainder of the study period. Moreover, it is assumed there are no births, deaths, immigration or emigration during the study period;the community is said to be closed. In these infection disease models, there are two central questions: first it is the disease extinction or not and the second studies the time elapsed for such extinction, this paper will deal with this second question because the first answer corresponds to the basic reproduction number defined in the bibliography. More concretely, we study the mean-extinction of the diseases and the technique used here first builds the backward Kolmogorov differential equation and then solves it numerically using finite element method with FreeFem++. Our contribution and novelty </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">are</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> the following: however the reproduction number effectively concludes the extinction or not of the disease, it does not help to know its extinction times because example with the same reproduction numbers has very different time. Moreover, the SIS model is slower, a result that is not surprising, but this difference seems to increase in the stochastic models with respect to the deterministic ones, it is reasonable to assume some uncertainly.</span></span></span>
基金Supported by the Nature Science Foundation of China(19971066)Postdoctoral Foundation of China(2005037785)
文摘An SIS epidemic model with a simple vaccination is investigated in this article, The efficiency of vaccine, the disease-related death rate and population dynamics are also considered in this model. The authors find two threshold R0 and Rc (Rc may not exist). There is a unique endemic equilibrium for R0 〉 1 or Rc = R0; there are two endemic equilibria for Rc 〈 R0 〈 1; and there is no endemic equilibrium for Rn 〈 Rc 〈 1. When Rc exists, there is a backward bifurcation from the disease-free equilibrium for R0 = 1. They analyze the stability of equilibria and obtain the globally dynamic behaviors of the model. The results acquired in this article show that an accurate estimation of the efficiency of vaccine is necessary to prevent and controll the spread of disease.
基金This work is supported by the National Sciences Foundation of China (10471040)the Youth Science Foundations of Shanxi Province (20021003).
文摘In this article, an SIRS epidemic model spread by vectors (mosquitoes) which have an incubation time to become infectious is formulated. It is shown that a disease-free equilibrium point is globally stable if no endemic equilibrium point exists. Further, the endemic equilibrium point (if it exists) is globally stable with a respect "weak delay". Some known results are generalized.
基金This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (10171106)the Special Fund for Major State Basic Research Projects (G1999032805)
文摘A disease transmission model of SI type with stage structure is formulated. The stability of disease free equilibrium, the existence and uniqueness of an endemic equilibrium, the existence of a global attractor are investigated.
基金funded by China-MSD HIV/AIDS Partnership Project(2012-83)Comprehensive Assessment for HIV/AIDS Control and Prevention in Sichuan Province Project(2006-2010)
文摘Objective This study was to investigate the HIV current situation in Liangshan prefecture, in order to predict prevalence and transmission trends. Methods Region-specific population, behavior, serosurveillence, and policy/program data (from 1995 to 2020) were gathered from various local and national organizations and applied to the Asian Epidemic Model (AEM) and used to derive estimates of future HIV prevalence, epidemic trends, and outcomes of intervention strategies. Results The AEM projections for 2020 included increased number of people living with HIV (PLHIV; to 136 617), increased HIV prevalence (2.51%), and 8037 deaths from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in this region. However, the overall HIV incidence rate (per 10 000) was projected to decline from 27 in 2015 to 22 in 2020, largely due to a predicted decrease in HIV infection rate (per 10 000) from 658 in 2013 to 621 in 2020 among intravenous drug users. In contrast, the cases of HIV infection per i0 000 was projected to increase from 420 in 2010 to 503 in 2020 among men who have sex with men, and from 8 in 2010 to 15 in 2020 among the general population. The predominant risk factor for HIV transmission over the next decade in Liangshan was casual sex. Community-based outreach strategies to reduce injected drug use and casual sex, and to promote condom use, were predicted as effective interventions to decrease HIV transmission. Conclusion Implementation of a comprehensive public health program, with targeting to the region-specific at-risk populations, will help to mitigate HIV/AIDS spread in Liangshan.