目的/意义系统梳理基于互联网数据的传染病预测模型相关研究,助力实现传染病监测关口前移,为构建传染病智慧化立体防治体系提供参考。方法/过程对Web of Science核心数据库和中国知网收录的近20年基于互联网数据的传染病监测预警研究发...目的/意义系统梳理基于互联网数据的传染病预测模型相关研究,助力实现传染病监测关口前移,为构建传染病智慧化立体防治体系提供参考。方法/过程对Web of Science核心数据库和中国知网收录的近20年基于互联网数据的传染病监测预警研究发展历程及研究方向进行梳理,分析当前主要问题与挑战,总结常见预测模型及其优化方向。结果/结论互联网传染病监测研究呈监测疾病多样化、数据来源精细化和专业化等趋势。由于互联网数据的复杂性和不确定性,现有模型大多仅适用于短时或实时预测。通过构建组合模型、加强多源数据融合、完善关键词与影响因素选择等方式,可进一步优化模型,加强拟合效果和预测能力。展开更多
Objective To identify patterns of hand, foot and mouth disease （HFMD） incidence in China during declining incidence periods of 2008, 2009, and 2010. Methods Reported HFMD cases over a period of 25 months were extrac...Objective To identify patterns of hand, foot and mouth disease （HFMD） incidence in China during declining incidence periods of 2008, 2009, and 2010. Methods Reported HFMD cases over a period of 25 months were extracted from the National Disease Reporting System （NDRS） and analyzed. An interrupted time series （ITS） technique was used to detect changes in HFMD incidence rates in terms of level and slope between declining incidence periods of the three years. Results Over 3.58 million HFMD cases younger than 5 years were reported to the NDRS between May 1, 2008, and May 31, 2011. Males comprised 63.4% of the cases. ITS analyses demonstrated a significant increase in incidence rate level （P〈0.0001） when comparing the current period with the previous period. There were significant changes in declining slopes when comparing 2010 to 2009, and 2010 to 2008 （all P〈O.O05）, but not 2009 to 2008. Conclusion Incremental changes in incidence rate level during the declining incidence periods of 2009 and 2010 can potentially be attributed to a few factors. The more steeply declining slope in 2010 compared with previous years could be ascribed to the implementation of more effective interventions and preventive strategies in 2010. Further investigation is required to examine this possibility.展开更多
Background: Earlier study without actual trial indicated that caregivers needed delivery of information about outbreak situations independently of their job status. This report describes, for about two months in winte...Background: Earlier study without actual trial indicated that caregivers needed delivery of information about outbreak situations independently of their job status. This report describes, for about two months in winter, actual delivery outbreak information to families with preschool children. The study objective was to confirm the usefulness of this information delivery. Method: Participants receiving outbreak information were recruited from the Child Care Support Service in a ward in Tokyo, Japan. Outbreak information was obtained from the Nursery School Absenteeism Surveillance System (NSASSy) covering approximately 40% of all nursery schools in Japan, prescription surveillance and other resources. Delivery of outbreak information started in December 2017 and ceased at the end of February in 2018. After the delivery period, a questionnaire survey was administered to participants. Results: For this area, NSASSy showed the most dominant disease was influenza, with 707 patients, followed by group A streptococcal pharyngitis with 98 patients. The outbreak peak was inferred to be as Monday, 22 January, and it was announced by e-mail on 23 January. Of the 202 persons joined this trial, 60 participants responded to the questionnaire survey after the delivery period. Of those respondents, 98% wanted delivery of that information to continue. Conclusion: We found that almost all respondents confirmed usefulness of the information about infectious diseases which was delivered.展开更多
This paper reports a study of the necessity of providing information that is of the most concern of caregivers: health management, responses to sudden onset, and outbreaks of infectious diseases. We asked users and pr...This paper reports a study of the necessity of providing information that is of the most concern of caregivers: health management, responses to sudden onset, and outbreaks of infectious diseases. We asked users and providers of Child Care Support Service in ward A of Tokyo, as respondents, whether they would like to receive information related to infectious diseases. Of questionnaires sent by mail to 383 providers and 3101 users, we received 18 responses from providers and 88 responses from users. All providers and users were required to provide information related to infectious diseases. The most often reported responses were “straight-out hand washing, mask wearing, gargling, and disinfection”, followed by “voluntary restraint of outside activities”, and “measures for illnesses of the family or children.” Results show that caregivers would like to receive information about infectious diseases because they have many health management concerns about their children.展开更多
By analyzing the susceptible-infected model, susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model and susceptible infected-recovered model, we get the improved Kermachk-Mckendrick model. And by applying the controlled thr...By analyzing the susceptible-infected model, susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model and susceptible infected-recovered model, we get the improved Kermachk-Mckendrick model. And by applying the controlled threshold value, we get the conditions of isolated rate for infectious disease eventually disappeared.展开更多
文摘目的/意义系统梳理基于互联网数据的传染病预测模型相关研究,助力实现传染病监测关口前移,为构建传染病智慧化立体防治体系提供参考。方法/过程对Web of Science核心数据库和中国知网收录的近20年基于互联网数据的传染病监测预警研究发展历程及研究方向进行梳理,分析当前主要问题与挑战,总结常见预测模型及其优化方向。结果/结论互联网传染病监测研究呈监测疾病多样化、数据来源精细化和专业化等趋势。由于互联网数据的复杂性和不确定性,现有模型大多仅适用于短时或实时预测。通过构建组合模型、加强多源数据融合、完善关键词与影响因素选择等方式,可进一步优化模型,加强拟合效果和预测能力。
文摘Objective To identify patterns of hand, foot and mouth disease （HFMD） incidence in China during declining incidence periods of 2008, 2009, and 2010. Methods Reported HFMD cases over a period of 25 months were extracted from the National Disease Reporting System （NDRS） and analyzed. An interrupted time series （ITS） technique was used to detect changes in HFMD incidence rates in terms of level and slope between declining incidence periods of the three years. Results Over 3.58 million HFMD cases younger than 5 years were reported to the NDRS between May 1, 2008, and May 31, 2011. Males comprised 63.4% of the cases. ITS analyses demonstrated a significant increase in incidence rate level （P〈0.0001） when comparing the current period with the previous period. There were significant changes in declining slopes when comparing 2010 to 2009, and 2010 to 2008 （all P〈O.O05）, but not 2009 to 2008. Conclusion Incremental changes in incidence rate level during the declining incidence periods of 2009 and 2010 can potentially be attributed to a few factors. The more steeply declining slope in 2010 compared with previous years could be ascribed to the implementation of more effective interventions and preventive strategies in 2010. Further investigation is required to examine this possibility.
文摘Background: Earlier study without actual trial indicated that caregivers needed delivery of information about outbreak situations independently of their job status. This report describes, for about two months in winter, actual delivery outbreak information to families with preschool children. The study objective was to confirm the usefulness of this information delivery. Method: Participants receiving outbreak information were recruited from the Child Care Support Service in a ward in Tokyo, Japan. Outbreak information was obtained from the Nursery School Absenteeism Surveillance System (NSASSy) covering approximately 40% of all nursery schools in Japan, prescription surveillance and other resources. Delivery of outbreak information started in December 2017 and ceased at the end of February in 2018. After the delivery period, a questionnaire survey was administered to participants. Results: For this area, NSASSy showed the most dominant disease was influenza, with 707 patients, followed by group A streptococcal pharyngitis with 98 patients. The outbreak peak was inferred to be as Monday, 22 January, and it was announced by e-mail on 23 January. Of the 202 persons joined this trial, 60 participants responded to the questionnaire survey after the delivery period. Of those respondents, 98% wanted delivery of that information to continue. Conclusion: We found that almost all respondents confirmed usefulness of the information about infectious diseases which was delivered.
文摘This paper reports a study of the necessity of providing information that is of the most concern of caregivers: health management, responses to sudden onset, and outbreaks of infectious diseases. We asked users and providers of Child Care Support Service in ward A of Tokyo, as respondents, whether they would like to receive information related to infectious diseases. Of questionnaires sent by mail to 383 providers and 3101 users, we received 18 responses from providers and 88 responses from users. All providers and users were required to provide information related to infectious diseases. The most often reported responses were “straight-out hand washing, mask wearing, gargling, and disinfection”, followed by “voluntary restraint of outside activities”, and “measures for illnesses of the family or children.” Results show that caregivers would like to receive information about infectious diseases because they have many health management concerns about their children.
文摘By analyzing the susceptible-infected model, susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model and susceptible infected-recovered model, we get the improved Kermachk-Mckendrick model. And by applying the controlled threshold value, we get the conditions of isolated rate for infectious disease eventually disappeared.
