Improving the accuracy of precipitation estimates in a typical inland arid area of China using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging approach

Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid area in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations,limited access to precipitation data,and significant water scarcity.Evaluating and integrating precipitation datasets from different sources to accurately characterize precipitation patterns has become a challenge to provide more accurate and alternative precipitation information for the region,which can even improve the performance of hydrological modelling.This study evaluated the applicability of widely used five satellite-based precipitation products(Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station(CHIRPS),China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),Climate Prediction Center morphing method(CMORPH),Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record(PERSIANN-CDR),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA))and a reanalysis precipitation dataset(ECMWF Reanalysis v5-Land Dataset(ERA5-Land))in Xinjiang using ground-based observational precipitation data from a limited number of meteorological stations.Based on this assessment,we proposed a framework that integrated different precipitation datasets with varying spatial resolutions using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging(DBMA)approach,the expectation-maximization method,and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method.The daily precipitation data merged using the DBMA approach exhibited distinct spatiotemporal variability,with an outstanding performance,as indicated by low root mean square error(RMSE=1.40 mm/d)and high Person's correlation coefficient(CC=0.67).Compared with the traditional simple model averaging(SMA)and individual product data,although the DBMA-fused precipitation data were slightly lower than the best precipitation product(CMFD),the overall performance of DBMA was more robust.The error analysis between DBMA-fused precipitation dataset and the more advanced Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final(IMERG-F)precipitation product,as well as hydrological simulations in the Ebinur Lake Basin,further demonstrated the superior performance of DBMA-fused precipitation dataset in the entire Xinjiang region.The proposed framework for solving the fusion problem of multi-source precipitation data with different spatial resolutions is feasible for application in inland arid areas,and aids in obtaining more accurate regional hydrological information and improving regional water resources management capabilities and meteorological research in these regions.

Genetic and Agronomic Parameter Estimates of Growth, Yield and Related Traits of Maize (Zea mays L.) under Different Rates of Nitrogen Fertilization

This study evaluated the genetic and agronomic parameter estimates of maize under different nitrogen rates. The trial was established at the Njala Agricultural Research Centre experimental site during 2021 and 2022 in a split block design with three maize varieties (IWCD2, 2009EVDT, and DMR-ESR-Yellow) and seven nitrogen (0, 30, 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180 kg∙N∙ha−1) rates. Findings showed that cob diameter and anthesis silking time (ASI) had intermediate heritability, ASI had high genetic advance, ASI and grain yield had high genotypic coefficient of variation (GCV), while traits with high phenotypic coefficient of variation (PCV) were plant height, ASI, grain yield, number of kernel per cob, number of kernel rows, ear length, and ear height. The PCV values were higher than GCV, indicating the influence of the environment in the studied traits. Nitrogen rates and variety significantly (p < 0.05) influenced grain yield production. Mean grain yields and economic parameter estimates increased with increasing nitrogen rates, with the 30 and 180 kg∙N∙ha−1 plots exhibiting the lowest and highest grain yields of 1238 kg∙ha−1 and 2098 kg∙ha−1, respectively. Variety and nitrogen effects on partial factor productivity (PFPN), agronomic efficiency (AEN), net returns (NR), value cost ratio (VCR) and marginal return (MR) indicated that these parameters were significantly affected (p < 0.05) by these factors. The highest PFPN (41.3 kg grain kg−1∙N) and AEN (29.4 kg grain kg−1∙N) were obtained in the 30 kg∙N∙ha−1 plots, while the highest VCR (2.8) and MR (SLL 1.8 SLL−1 spent on N) were obtained in the 180 kg∙N∙ha−1. The significant influence of variety and nitrogen on traits suggests that increasing yields and maximizing profits require use of appropriate nitrogen fertilization and improved farming practices that could be exploited for increased productivity of maize.

Improving the utility of locally differentially private protocols for longitudinal and multidimensional frequency estimates

This paper investigates the problem of collecting multidimensional data throughout time(i.e.,longitudinal studies)for the fundamental task of frequency estimation under Local Differential Privacy(LDP)guarantees.Contrary to frequency estimation of a single attribute,the multidimensional aspect demands particular attention to the privacy budget.Besides,when collecting user statistics longitudinally,privacy progressively degrades.Indeed,the“multiple”settings in combination(i.e.,many attributes and several collections throughout time)impose several challenges,for which this paper proposes the first solution for frequency estimates under LDP.To tackle these issues,we extend the analysis of three state-of-the-art LDP protocols(Generalized Randomized Response–GRR,Optimized Unary Encoding–OUE,and Symmetric Unary Encoding–SUE)for both longitudinal and multidimensional data collections.While the known literature uses OUE and SUE for two rounds of sanitization(a.k.a.memoization),i.e.,L-OUE and L-SUE,respectively,we analytically and experimentally show that starting with OUE and then with SUE provides higher data utility(i.e.,L-OSUE).Also,for attributes with small domain sizes,we propose Longitudinal GRR(L-GRR),which provides higher utility than the other protocols based on unary encoding.Last,we also propose a new solution named Adaptive LDP for LOngitudinal and Multidimensional FREquency Estimates(ALLOMFREE),which randomly samples a single attribute to be sent with the whole privacy budget and adaptively selects the optimal protocol,i.e.,either L-GRR or L-OSUE.As shown in the results,ALLOMFREE consistently and considerably outperforms the state-of-the-art L-SUE and L-OUE protocols in the quality of the frequency estimates.

Method for rapid warning and activity concentration estimates in online waterγ-spectrometry systems

Onlineγ-spectrometry systems for inland waters,most of which extract samples in situ and in real time,are able to produce reliable activity concentration measurements for waterborne radionuclides only when they are distributed relatively uniformly and enter into a steady-state diffusion regime in the measurement chamber.To protect residents’health and ensure the safety of the living environment,better timeliness is required for this measurement method.To address this issue,this study established a mathematical model of the online waterγ-spectrometry system so that rapid warning and activity estimates can be obtained for water under non-steady-state(NSS)conditions.In addition,the detection efficiency of the detector for radionuclides during the NSS diffusion process was determined by applying the computational fluid dynamics technique in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulations.On this basis,a method was developed that allowed the online waterγ-spectrometry system to provide rapid warning and activity concentration estimates for radionuclides in water.Subsequent analysis of the NSS-mode measurements of^(40)K radioactive solutions with different activity concentrations determined the optimum warning threshold and measurement time for producing accurate activity concentration estimates for radionuclides.The experimental results show that the proposed NSS measurement method is able to give warning and yield accurate activity concentration estimates for radionuclides 55.42 and 69.42 min after the entry of a 10 Bq/L^(40)K radioactive solution into the measurement chamber,respectively.These times are much shorter than the 90 min required by the conventional measurement method.Furthermore,the NSS measurement method allows the measurement system to give rapid(within approximately 15 min)warning when the activity concentrations of some radionuclides reach their respective limits stipulated in the Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality of the WHO,suggesting that this method considerably enhances the warning capacity of in situ online waterγ-spectrometry systems.

MAXIMAL FUNCTION CHARACTERIZATIONS OF HARDY SPACES ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH NON-NEGATIVE SELF-ADJOINT OPERATORS SATISFYING GAUSSIAN ESTIMATES AND BALL QUASI-BANACH FUNCTION SPACES

Assume that L is a non-negative self-adjoint operator on L^(2)(ℝ^(n))with its heat kernels satisfying the so-called Gaussian upper bound estimate and that X is a ball quasi-Banach function space onℝ^(n) satisfying some mild assumptions.Let HX,L(ℝ^(n))be the Hardy space associated with both X and L,which is defined by the Lusin area function related to the semigroup generated by L.In this article,the authors establish various maximal function characterizations of the Hardy space HX,L(ℝ^(n))and then apply these characterizations to obtain the solvability of the related Cauchy problem.These results have a wide range of generality and,in particular,the specific spaces X to which these results can be applied include the weighted space,the variable space,the mixed-norm space,the Orlicz space,the Orlicz-slice space,and the Morrey space.Moreover,the obtained maximal function characterizations of the mixed-norm Hardy space,the Orlicz-slice Hardy space,and the Morrey-Hardy space associated with L are completely new.

SUFFICIENT AND NECESSARY CONDITIONS ON THE EXISTENCE AND ESTIMATES OF BOUNDARY BLOW-UP SOLUTIONS FOR SINGULAR p-LAPLACIAN EQUATIONS

Let?denote a smooth,bounded domain in R^(N)(N≥2).Suppose that g is a nondecreasing C^(1)positive function and assume that b(x)is continuous and nonnegative inΩ,and that it may be singular on■Ω.In this paper,we provide sufficient and necessary conditions on the existence of boundary blow-up solutions to the p-Laplacian problem△_(p)u=b(x)g(u)for x∈Ω,u(x)→+∞as dist(x,■Ω)→0.The estimates of such solutions are also investigated.Moreover,when b has strong singularity,the nonexistence of boundary blow-up(radial)solutions and infinitely many radial solutions are also considered.

An Example of a Bounded Potential q(x) on the Half-Line, for Estimates of A(α) Amplitude

We show an example of a bounded potential on the half-line obtained as the image of an Inverse Transformation Operator of the Bessel singular potential of the Reduced Radial Schr&#246;dinger Equation, and show us the Estimates of the A(α) amplitude.

Methodology for Obtaining Optimal Sleeve Friction and Friction Ratio Estimates from CPT Data

Cone penetration testing (CPT) is a cost effective and popular tool for geotechnical site characterization. CPT consists of pushing at a constant rate an electronic penetrometer into penetrable soils and recording cone bearing (qc), sleeve friction (fc) and dynamic pore pressure (u) with depth. The measured qc, fs and u values are utilized to estimate soil type and associated soil properties. A popular method to estimate soil type from CPT measurements is the Soil Behavior Type (SBT) chart. The SBT plots cone resistance vs friction ratio, Rf [where: Rf = (fs/qc)100%]. There are distortions in the CPT measurements which can result in erroneous SBT plots. Cone bearing measurements at a specific depth are blurred or averaged due to qc values being strongly influenced by soils within 10 to 30 cone diameters from the cone tip. The qcHMM algorithm was developed to address the qc blurring/averaging limitation. This paper describes the distortions which occur when obtaining sleeve friction measurements which can in association with qc blurring result in significant errors in the calculated Rf values. This paper outlines a novel and highly effective algorithm for obtaining accurate sleeve friction and friction ratio estimates. The fc optimal filter estimation technique is referred to as the OSFE-IFM algorithm. The mathematical details of the OSFE-IFM algorithm are outlined in this paper along with the results from a challenging test bed simulation. The test bed simulation demonstrates that the OSFE-IFM algorithm derives accurate estimates of sleeve friction from measured values. Optimal estimates of cone bearing and sleeve friction result in accurate Rf values and subsequent accurate estimates of soil behavior type.

Error estimates of H^1-Galerkin mixed finite element method for Schrdinger equation

An H^1-Galerkin mixed finite element method is discussed for a class of second order SchrSdinger equation. Optimal error estimates of semidiscrete schemes are derived for problems in one space dimension. At the same time, optimal error estimates are derived for fully discrete schemes. And it is showed that the H1-Galerkin mixed finite element approximations have the same rate of convergence as in the classical mixed finite element methods without requiring the LBB consistency condition.

A Quality Assurance Procedure and Evaluation of Rainfall Estimates for C-Band Polarimetric Radar

A mobile C-band dual polarimetric weather radar J type （PCDJ）, which adopts simultaneous transmission and simultaneous reception （STSR） of horizontally and vertically polarized signals, was first developed in China in 2008. It was deployed in the radar observation plan in the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment （SCHeREX） in the summer of 2008 and 2009, as well as in Tropical Western Pacific Ocean Observation Experiments and Research on the Predictability of High Impact Weather Events from 2008 to 2010 in China （TWPOR）. Using the observation data collected in these experiments, the radar systematic error and its sources were analyzed in depth. Meanwhile an algorithm that can smooth differential propagation phase （~Dp） for estimating the high-resolution specific differential phase （KDP） was developed. After attenuation correction of reflectivity in horizontal polarization （ZH） and differential reflectivity （ZDR） of PCDJ radar by means of KDP, the data quality was improved significantly. Using quality-controlled radar data, quantitative rainfall estimation was performed, and the resutls were compared with rain-gauge measurements. A synthetic ZH /KDp-based method was analyzed. The results the traditional ZH-based method when the rain suggest that the synthetic method has the advantage over rate is 〉5 mm h^-1. The more intensive the rain rates, the higher accuracy of the estimation.

Hydrological Simulation Using TRMM and CHIRPS Precipitation Estimates in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin

Satellite-based products with high spatial and temporal resolution provide useful precipitation information for data-sparse or ungauged large-scale watersheds. In the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, rainfall stations are sparse and unevenly distributed, and the transboundary characteristic makes the collection of precipitation data more difficult, which has restricted hydrological processes simulation. In this study, daily precipitation data from four datasets(gauge observations, inverse distance weighted(IDW) data, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) estimates, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations(CHIRPS) estimates), were applied to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model, and then their capability for hydrological simulation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin were examined. TRMM and CHIRPS data showed good performances on precipitation estimation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, with the better performance for TRMM product. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) values of gauge, IDW, TRMM, and CHIRPS simulations during the calibration period were 0.87, 0.86, 0.95, and 0.93 for monthly flow, respectively, and those for daily flow were 0.75, 0.77, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively. TRMM and CHIRPS data were superior to rain gauge and IDW data for driving the hydrological model, and TRMM data produced the best simulation performance. Satellite-based precipitation estimates could be suitable data sources when simulating hydrological processes for large data-poor or ungauged watersheds, especially in international river basins for which precipitation observations are difficult to collect. CHIRPS data provide long precipitation time series from 1981 to near present and thus could be used as an alternative precipitation input for hydrological simulation, especially for the period without TRMM data. For satellite-based precipitation products, the differences in the occurrence frequencies and amounts of precipitation with different intensities would affect simulation results of water balance components, which should be comprehensively considered in water resources estimation and planning.

DECAY ESTIMATES FOR ISENTROPIC COMPRESSIBLE MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC EQUATIONS IN BOUNDED DOMAIN

In this paper, under the hypothesis that y is upper bounded, we construct a Lyapunov functional for the multidimensional isentropic compressible magnetohydrodynamic equations and show that the weak solutions decay exponentially to the equilibrium state in L2 norm. Our result verifies that the method of Daoyuan Fang, Ruizhao Zi and Ting Zhang I1] can be adapted to magnetohydrodynamic equations.

GRADIENT ESTIMATES AND ENTROPY FORMULAE FOR WEIGHTED p-HEAT EQUATIONS ON SMOOTH METRIC MEASURE SPACES

Let （M,g, e^-fdv） be a smooth metric measure space. In this paper, we con- sider two nonlinear weighted p-heat equations. Firstly, we derive a Li-Yau type gradient estimates for the positive solutions to the following nonlinear weighted p-heat equationand f is a smooth function on M under the assumptionthat the m-dimensional nonnegative Bakry-Emery Ricci curvature. Secondly, we show an entropy monotonicity formula with nonnegative m-dimensional Bakry-Emery Ricci curva- ture which is a generalization to the results of Kotschwar and Ni [9], Li [7].

A PRIORI L_2 ERROR ESTIMATES FOR A NONLINEAR PARABOLIC SYSTEM BASED ON COMBINING THE METHOD OF CHARACTERISTICS WITH MIXED FINITE ELEMENT PROCEDURE

A nonlinear parabolic system is derived to describe incompressible nuclear waste-disposal contamination in porous media. A sequential implicit tirne-stepping is defined, in which the pressure and Darcy velocity of the mixture are approximated simultaneously by a mixed finite element method and the brine, radionuclid and heat are treated by a combination of a Galerkin finite element method and the method of characteristics. Optimal-order convergence in L2 is proved. Time-truncation errors of standard procedures are reduced by time stepping along the characteristics of the hyperbolic part of the brine, radionuclide and heal equalios, temporal and spatial error are lossened by direct compulation of the velocity in the mixed method, as opposed to differentiation of the pressure.

DECAY ESTIMATES OF PLANAR STATIONARY WAVES FOR DAMED WAVE EQUATIONS WITH NONLINEAR CONVECTION IN MULTI-DIMENSIONAL HALF SPACE

This paper is concerned with the initial-boundary value problem for damped wave equations with a nonlinear convection term in the multi-dimensional half space R n ＋ ： u tt u ＋ u t ＋ divf （u） = 0, t 〉 0, x = （x 1 , x ′ ） ∈ R n ＋ ：= R ＋ × R n 1 , u（0, x） = u 0 （x） → u ＋ , as x 1 → ＋ ∞ , u t （0, x） = u 1 （x）, u（t, 0, x ′ ） = u b , x ′ = （x 2 , x 3 , ··· , x n ） ∈ R n 1 . （I） For the non-degenerate case f ′ 1 （u ＋ ） 〈 0, it was shown in [10] that the above initialboundary value problem （I） admits a unique global solution u（t, x） which converges to the corresponding planar stationary wave φ（x 1 ） uniformly in x 1 ∈ R ＋ as time tends to infinity provided that the initial perturbation and/or the strength of the stationary wave are sufficiently small. And in [10] Ueda, Nakamura, and Kawashima proved the algebraic decay estimates of the tangential derivatives of the solution u（t, x） for t → ＋ ∞ by using the space-time weighted energy method initiated by Kawashima and Matsumura [5] and improved by Nishihkawa [7]. Moreover, by using the same weighted energy method, an additional algebraic convergence rate in the normal direction was obtained by assuming that the initial perturbation decays algebraically. We note, however, that the analysis in [10] relies heavily on the assumption that f ′ （u） 〈 0. The main purpose of this paper isdevoted to discussing the case of f ′ 1 （u b ） ≥ 0 and we show that similar results still hold for such a case. Our analysis is based on some delicate energy estimates.

A POSTERIORI ERROR ESTIMATES OF FINITEELEMENT METHOD FOR PARABOLIC PROBLEMS

This paper deals with a-posteriori error estimates for piecewise linear finite element approximations of parabolic problems in two space dimensions. The analysis extends previous results for elliptic problems to the parabolic context.

Empirical Estimates of Global Climate Sensitivity:An Assessment of Strategies Using a Coupled GCM

A control integration with the normal solar constant and one with it increased by 2.5% in the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR） coupled atmosphere-ocean Climate System Model were conducted to see how well the actual realized global warming could be predicted just by analysis of the control results. This is a test, within a model context, of proposals that have been advanced to use knowledge of the present day climate to make ＂empirical＂ estimates of global climate sensitivity. The scaling of the top-of-the-atmosphere infrared flux and the planetary albedo as functions of surface temperature was inferred by examining four different temporal and geographical variations of the control simulations. Each of these inferences greatly overestimates the climate sensitivity of the model, largely because of the behavior of the cloud albedo. In each inference the control results suggest that cloudiness and albedo decrease with increasing surface temperature. However, the experiment with the increased solar constant actually has higher albedo and more cloudiness at most latitudes. The increased albedo is a strong negative feedback, and this helps account for the rather weak sensitivity of the climate in the NCAR model. To the extent that these model results apply to the real world, they suggest empirical evaluation of the scaling of global-mean radiative properties with surface temperature in the present day climate provides little useful guidance for estimates of the actual climate sensitivity to global changes.

Synchronization and Exponential Estimates of Complex Networks with Mixed Time-varying Coupling Delays

Exponential estimates and sufficient conditions for the exponential synchronization of complex dynamical networks with bounded time-varying delays are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities （LMIs）. A generalized complex networks model involving both neutral delays and retarded ones is presented. The exponential synchronization problem of the complex networks is converted equivalently into the exponential stability problem of a group of uncorrelated delay functional differential equations with mixed timevarying delays. By utilizing the free weighting matrix technique, a less conservative delay-dependent synchronization criterion is derived. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Modelling the Impact of Stages of HIV Progression on Estimates

HIV/AIDS is a public health problem especially in sub-Saharan Africa where majority of infections and deaths occur. Despite the large number of studies and efforts made in covering the data gap using mathematical models, little is known on how model estimates are confounded by the transmission variabilities that exist in stages of HIV progression. This work investigates the impact of including stages of HIV transmission in HIV/AIDS models. A deterministic HIV/AIDS model is developed and extended to include stages of HIV progression of infected individuals. Theoretical investigation of the models and numerical analyses indicate that the two models produce different estimates, with the model without stages producing lower estimates than the staged model. These results call for a careful consideration in evaluating the efficiency of HIV/AIDS models that are used to estimate and project the burden of HIV/AIDS disease.

ASYMPTOTIC PROPERTY STUDY OF THE LEAST SQUARE ESTIMATES OF 2-D EXPONENTIAL SIGNALS VIA COMPLEX SIGNAL PROCESSING APPROACH

By use of the approach of complex random signal processing, the asymptotic statistical properties of the least square estimates of 2-D exponential signals are studied. In doing so it is found that the representation is considerably more intuitive, and is analytically more tractable.