Evacuating Populations with Special Needs Using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Method and GIS

The present study is focused on the development of a methodology pertaining to the evacuation plans improvement in a scenario where infrastructures are located in residential settlements that might be threatened by fires;the aforesaid settlements are oftentimes found to be resided by vulnerable population groups, namely elderly people, handicapped people and children. The study pinpoints Evacuation Assembly Points (E.A.P.s) on the outskirts of their settlement and examines the evacuation routes accessibility and safety by way of utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GISs). What is more, our meticulously planned methodology combining quantitative analysis, as well as participatory planning, allows for improve strategies targeted on how to effectively ensure the vulnerable population groups evacuation. The study’s results exhibit how vital it is to integrate technological tools in combination with each community’s partaking in the process of preparing and implementing evacuation plans. The study’s findings furthermore suggest the need to further research the evolution of dynamic evacuation models, which would take the ever-changing and ever-evolving needs of vulnerable population groups into account.

Exit selection strategy in pedestrian evacuation simulation with multi-exits

A mixed strategy of the exit selection in a pedestrian evacuation simulation with multi-exits is constructed by fusing the distance-based and time-based strategies through a cognitive coefficient, in order to reduce the evacuation imbalance caused by the asymmetry of exits or pedestrian layout, to find a critical density to distinguish whether the strategy of exit selection takes effect or not, and to analyze the exit selection results with different cognitive coefficients. The strategy of exit selection is embedded in the computation of the shortest estimated distance in a dynamic parameter model, in which the concept of a jam area layer and the procedure of step-by-step expending are introduced. Simulation results indicate the characteristics of evacuation time gradually varying against cognitive coefficient and the effectiveness of reducing evacuation imbalance caused by the asymmetry of pedestrian or exit layout. It is found that there is a critical density to distinguish whether a pedestrian jam occurs in the evacuation and whether an exit selection strategy is in effect. It is also shown that the strategy of exit selection has no effect on the evacuation process in the no-effect phase with a low density, and that evacuation time and exit selection are dependent on the cognitive coefficient and pedestrian initial density in the in-effect phase with a high density.

Evacuation of pedestrians from a hall by game strategy update

In this paper, a cellular automaton model considering game strategy update is proposed to study the pedestrian evac- uation in a hall. Pedestrians are classified into two categories, i.e., cooperators and defectors, and they walk to an exit according to their own strategy change. The conflicts that two or three pedestrians try to occupy the same site at the same time are investigated in the Game theory model. Based on it, the relationship between the pedestrian flow rate and the evacuation time as well as the variation of cooperative proportion against evacuation time is investigated from the different initial cooperative proportions under the influence of noise. The critical value of the noise is found when there is a small number of defectors in the initial time. Moreover, the influences of the initial cooperative proportion and strength of noise on evacuation are discussed. The results show that the lower the initial cooperative proportion as well as the bigger the strength of noise, the longer the time it takes for evacuation.

Optimization of Grouping Evacuation Strategy in High-rise Building Fires Based on Graph Theory and Computational Experiments

It is difficult to rescue people from outside, and emergency evacuation is still a main measure to decrease casualties in high-rise building fires. To improve evacuation efficiency, a valid and easily manipulated grouping evacuation strategy is proposed. Occupants escape in groups according to the shortest evacuation route is determined by graph theory. In order to evaluate and find the optimal grouping, computational experiments are performed to design and simulate the evacuation processes. A case study shown the application in detail and quantitative research conclusions is obtained. The thoughts and approaches of this study can be used to guide actual high-rise building evacuation processes in future.

Strategy for Effective Evacuation of Pedestrians Using GIS and GPS Measurements

During a residential settlement evacuation, a large number of individuals do not have access to any private means of transport in order to be evacuated;these people are assembled at Evacuation Assembly Points (E.A.P.s), so as to be picked up, gathered and evacuated by the competent authorities. The present study aims to evaluate whether some pedestrian assembly points are adequate for these people’s fastest assembly, taking into account the demographic characteristics of the studied population and the incline of the studied area’s ground. In order for said fastest assembly and evacuation to be achieved Geographical Information Systems (G.I.S.) and GPS measurements have been employed. The suggested method has led to the creation of the households’ classification maps based upon their inhabitants’ response time in order to improve the pre-existent Intervention Teams’ contingency plans. First, in order to identify the demographic characteristics of the studied population, we have employed the field survey method;second, we have determined the fastest and ergo optimal evacuation routes using the Dijkstra algorithm. What is more, the results hereof prove that it is feasible that the time it takes to gather the pedestrians be optimized by way of choosing the best evacuation point, whilst a method of large crowds’ evacuation in groups has been developed. The latter could constitute a useful tool for Civil Protection Agents and responders.

Debris Flow Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of NonStructural Strategies in Taiwan

Taiwan has disadvantageous conditions for sediment-related disasters such as debris flows. The construction of engineering structures is an effective strategy for reducing debris flow disasters. However, it is impossible to construct engineering structures in all debris flow areas in a short period. Therefore, the government aims to gradually develop non-structural preventive strategies, including evacuation planning, debris flow disaster emergency action system, disaster resistant community program, recruitment of debris flow professional volunteers, debris flow warning systems, and land management strategies, to mitigate disasters and secure the safety of residents. This review describes the processes and effects of recent debris flow non-structural preventive strategies in Taiwan. The average number of casualties prior to the year 2000 was far higher than the corresponding number after 2000 because debris flow evacuation drills have been promoted since 2000 and the debris flow disaster emergency action system has been progressively improved since 2002. Furthermore, the changes in risks caused by debris flow disasters before and after the implementation of non-structural preventive strategies were used to explain the effectiveness of these strategies at the community level. The results showed that softwarebased non-structural preventive strategies can effectively reduce the casualties caused by debris flows at both the national and community levels.

考虑结伴行为的养老场所多群体人员疏散研究

为了研究养老场所内不同类型的结伴行为对人员疏散的影响,通过分析结伴行为与老年人运动的关系,建立了考虑不同速度和体力值变化的元胞自动机疏散模型,定义了结伴行人的转移概率。为解决多种群体目标位置竞争冲突的问题,提出了两种冲突解决策略。对护理人员比例、老年人结伴概率和行人密度等影响疏散的重要因素进行讨论。研究表明:在疏散过程中不同群体行人发生人员冲突时,优先疏散速度较快的群体可以加快整体的疏散进程;护理人员比例和老年人结伴概率越大疏散效率越高;护理人员分布在疏散场所的远门区疏散效果较好。该研究成果可为优化养老场所人员疏散过程提供参考。

地铁列车车门开启策略对区间疏散影响研究

当地铁列车发生火灾,采用区间人员疏散策略时,列车车门开启数量和组合形式对疏散效率的影响较大。本文提出8种车门开启策略,构建人员疏散模型并进行校验,基于模拟仿真开展对比分析。结果表明:单向疏散时,开启全部车门的疏散效率最高,比端门疏散高57%,比客室门疏散高33%;开启全部车门疏散时,车厢内流动性增强,经车厢1疏散的人数比客室门疏散增加了88%,车厢连接处易拥堵;双向疏散时,疏散方向最上游和最下游的车门流量最大,随着疏散人数增加,各车门流量表现出显著的不均衡性。

医疗建筑楼梯与电梯多通道耦合疏散策略优化仿真模拟

医疗建筑作为人流密集的特殊公共场所,一旦发生火灾等紧急情况,极易造成重大的人员伤亡事故。为提升医疗建筑紧急情况下的应急疏散能力,以某综合医院住院楼栋为研究对象,构建三维疏散模型,结合实际情况设置人员类别和构成参数、电梯与楼梯参数,基于Pathfinder软件的Steering模式进行仿真模拟,通过观察模拟动画及分析模拟数据,预判人群拥堵位置,并以减少水平拥堵时间为目标,从优化电梯停靠楼层设置和疏导人员通过楼梯疏散2个方面优化疏散方案。结果表明,楼梯与电梯多通道耦合疏散优化方案可有效缓解电梯疏散压力,降低自由疏散时人员拥堵的时间,提高疏散效率。研究结果可为垂直建筑空间人员疏散提供切实可行的决策支持。

突发传染病情况下高校行人流建模分析与管理控制:以高校食堂为例

为降低密集人群封闭系统在突发传染病情况下的传播风险,以北京航空航天大学沙河校区第一食堂为研究场景,针对存在传染病传播的学校食堂这一特殊场景提出了12种疏散策略。并通过元胞自动机仿真模拟,评估控制策略的效果。仿真结果表明,在疏散前采取出入口消毒、患者隔离等措施,能够降低约40%的整体感染风险。控制措施不仅可以用来解决新冠肺炎背景下“人员聚集场所发现疑似病例的人员疏散”问题,而且在处理一些特定场合的突发情况和指导疫情预防方面也具有应用价值。

多层教学建筑火灾疏散模拟与策略研究

为解决教学建筑应急疏散无秩序,人流高峰期出口压力大等问题,以某高校多层教学楼为研究对象,以建筑信息模型(Building information model, BIM)为基础,应用Pyrosim和Pathfinder对研究对象的火灾场景、人员疏散情况进行联合仿真并分析着火点及易波及区域的烟气层高度、能见度、CO浓度进行分析,得出人员可用安全疏散时间ASET,并采用人员疏散模型对不同疏散方案进行对比研究。为进一步缓解应急场景下出口的疏散压力,提出几种建筑结构改进措施并进行仿真验证。仿真结果表明,适合的疏散方案能够有效提高疏散效率,缩短人员必须时间RSET;此外,新增出口的最佳方案能够提升室内人员31%的有效疏散效率并减少50s疏散时间。上述方案提高了人员疏散的安全性,同时缓解了原有出口的疏散压力。

考虑引导员作用机制的人员疏散模型研究

为研究引导员对人员疏散过程的影响,引入引导阈值量化引导员对行人的作用机制,提出考虑动态引导策略即行为转变引导机制的改进元胞自动机人员疏散模型,模拟分析引导员数量、引导员位置和引导阈值对人员疏散效率的影响。研究结果表明:引导员数量存在1个最优取值范围,引导员数量过多,对人员疏散效率无明显的提高作用;引导员位置分布为“回”字形分布时,相比随机分布和靠出口分布,其疏散时间最短、引导员利用率最均衡;引导员采用行为转变策略时,引导阈值存在1个最优取值使得人员疏散效率相对最高。研究结果可为人群疏散时引导员采取引导策略提供理论参考。

考虑信息传递机制的改进社会力模型

为探究多出口房间内出口开放状态未知情况下行人疏散选择策略,并评估信息传递对疏散过程中运动状态和疏散效率的影响,提出基于信息传递机制的出口寻踪社会力模型(SFM)。首先,在SFM中引入竞争机制,使模型仿真效果更加符合实际疏散场景;然后,研究理性策略与非理性策略引导下的疏散过程,探讨信息变更引发的羊群效应对整体疏散的影响;最后,引入信息传递机制,探索信息交流与合作对逃生路径的优化作用。结果表明:在紧急逃生情境中,对于个体行人而言,理性策略更为稳妥;但从群体行为学角度来看,存在一个最优群体策略分布,即当大约25%的行人选择理性策略,而剩余75%的行人选择非理性策略时,整个群体的疏散效果可以达到最优;通过引入信息传递机制,逃生行人能够有效地从周围人群中获得关键逃生信息,从而显著提高疏散效率。该机制的促进作用对实际开放出口较少的场景尤为明显。

基于诚信原则的国际商务谈判僵局缓解策略——以中美经贸磋商谈判为例

随着经济全球化与国际化分工的发展,各国间的贸易合作日益紧密。国际商务谈判在国际贸易中举足轻重,是不同国家、不同文化和商业环境下的企业进行合作和达成协议的重要途径。在国际商务谈判中,僵局缓解策略是一种常见的策略,对于促进谈判顺利推进,双方达成共赢至关重要。而僵局缓解策略的运用需要建立在诚信原则的基础上,合作各方才能建立信任关系,共同为实现谈判成功而努力。因此,以中美经贸磋商谈判为案例,从诚信原则的角度出发,对案例中涉及的国际商务谈判僵局缓解策略进行了分析和研究,并对其进行了总结,旨在从中获取一定的启示。

高铁站应急疏散的优化与实践研究

通过对高铁站的应急疏散体系进行深入研究,探讨应急疏散模型的优化与实践策略。首先,概述高铁站应急疏散的重要性和当前研究背景,指出高铁站作为人员密集、流动性大的公共场所,在突发事件下应急疏散工作的关键性;接着,分析高铁站应急疏散的理论基础,在此基础上,对高铁站应急疏散的现状进行详细分析,指出存在的问题与不足,并结合具体案例进行深入探讨。最后,重点构建高铁站应急疏散的模型,并提出优化策略,通过模型验证与效果分析,验证了模型的有效性和实用性。

某体育馆消防疏散设计策略研究

以疏散时间为评价指标,以人员密度作为影响因素,基于Anylogic仿真平台对引导员引导的疏散策略进行仿真研究,将传统建筑电气消防设计的疏散方案与疏散策略进行对比分析。仿真结果表明:引导员引导可提高疏散效率,减少人员伤亡。

基于模拟仿真的医疗建筑疏散策略对比研究

医疗建筑作为人流密集的特殊公共场所,聚集了大量生理、心理和行动能力脆弱的病患,一旦发生火灾等突发事件,人员在疏散过程中容易发生拥堵,从而降低疏散效率和安全性。基于Pathfinder建立某综合医院疏散模型,开展多场景疏散模拟研究,对比分析了5种疏散人数情况下自由疏散、受控疏散两种典型疏散策略的影响规律。结果表明,与自由疏散相比,受控疏散场景疏散效率更高:当控制使用电梯的人数比例在10%~20%时,整体疏散时间均可达到最短;当速度较高人员在疏散过程中礼让速度较低的个体时,也能有效缩短整体疏散时间。研究可以为医疗建筑疏散设计和应急预案制定提供参考。

基于仿真模拟的商业综合体疏散优化策略——以成都SKP项目为例

文章通过仿真模拟的方法,以成都SKP项目为例进行了疏散和烟气模拟分析,通过对比发现了一些问题,并从建筑的功能、空间尺度和设备等切入提出了一些优化建议,以期为商业综合体建筑的消防疏散设计提供参考。

高活性和耐久性非铂氧还原催化剂的研究进展

质子交换膜燃料电池(PEMFCs)阴极氧还原反应(ORR)动力学迟缓,需要消耗大量的贵金属催化剂,这限制了其商业化应用。目前,原子级分散的M-N-C (M=Fe,Co,Mn等)催化剂受到人们青睐,有望替代铂催化剂。在过去的几十年里,M-N-C催化剂取得了很大的进步,具有优异的ORR活性,而且燃料电池初始性能有希望接近传统的Pt/C催化剂。然而,这些高活性的Fe-N-C催化剂在燃料电池实际工作条件下的稳定性比较差。这篇综述总结了在高效氧还原M-N-C催化剂方面的最近进展,主要概述了作者课题组在限域策略和自旋调控方面的贡献。此外,我们还总结了几种提高活性的有效方法以及近期的关于揭示M-N-C催化剂的降解机制的认识,如金属浸出、碳腐蚀、质子化和微孔淹没都会造成催化剂降解。为改善M-N-C催化剂的寿命,我们概括了文献中的缓解策略,包括控制催化剂中S1/S2位点、使用非铁基催化剂、增强金属氮键、改善碳载体的耐腐蚀性和使用质子缓冲液等。最后,提出了目前原子级分散的M-N-C催化剂的存在的挑战和可能的解决方案。

基于涟漪扩散算法的元胞自动机人员疏散模型研究

为探究大型公共场所内应急疏散调控策略的合理性、有效性和安全性,开展了2类场所的应急疏散调控策略的仿真研究,记录疏散时间、疏散拥堵时间和路径拥堵程度作为衡量应急疏散调控措施的指标,建立以多对多涟漪扩散算法为核心的线性元胞自动机模型。结果显示,与原有的疏散路线相比,使用算法规划的应急疏散路径可以缩短疏散时间;与仅仅使用算法规划应急疏散路径相比,考虑单一的路径拥堵情况或路网结构而增加的调控措施可能与疏散初衷相悖;但在使用算法规划路径的基础上,综合考虑路径拥堵情况和路网结构而增设的调控措施,其疏散效果是最好的。研究结果可为应急疏散管理者提供紧急情况下的调控策略,避免疏散过程中出现的拥挤、踩踏等二次事故的发生,进而保障人群的疏散安全。