The Impact of Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Factors on Non-performing Loans in Sri Lankan Commercial Banks

The main purpose of this study is to ascertain the effect of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors on non-performing loans in systemically and non-systemically important commercial banks in Sri Lanka over 10 year’s period from 2004 to 2013.Also,the study examines the impact of civil war that prevailed in the country for 30 years on the ex-post credit risk of the banking sector.The study employed panel data methodology to investigate the effect of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors on non-performing loans.Panel unit root test has been undertaken in order to test the stationary of the variables.Hausman test and Wald coefficient restriction test were used to select the appropriate model out of pooled,random,and fixed effect.A dummy variable panel regression model adopted to study the war effect,considering 2009 as the structural year.Findings revealed that return on assets as a proxy for bank efficiency has a significant negative influence,while non-interest income as a proxy for income diversity is positively correlated with non-performing loans of systemically important banks.Both real gross domestic products and lending rates were highly significant in both bank types.On contrary with literature,growth in bank branches is negatively correlated.Public banks do not account for higher level of non-performing loans compared to their private counterpart.Finally,it was identified that civil war had an effect on the level of non-performing loans in commercial banks.The research would have benefited if the analysis is carried out among classified types of loans offered by commercial banks.Future researchers should involve in identifying the most significant contributing loan type to the non-performing loans and its determinants.This study is one of the few studies which have investigated the causes of non-performing loans in the commercial banking industry in Sri Lanka.The analysis of civil war and its impact on non-performing loans is the first study of that nature to be conducted in the context.

A predictive indicator using lender composition for loan evaluation in P2P lending

Most loan evaluation methods in peer-to-peer(P2P)lending mainly exploit the borrowers’credit information.However,the present study presents the maturity-based lender composition score,which exploits the investment capability of a group of lenders who fund the same loan,to enhance the P2P loan evaluation.More specifically,we extract lenders’profiles in terms of performance,risk,and experience by quantifying their investment history and develop our loan evaluation indicator by aggregating the profiles of lenders in the composition.To measure the ability of a lender for continuous improvement in P2P investment,we introduce lender maturity to capture this evolvement and incorporate it into the aggregation process.Our empirical study demonstrates that the maturity-based lender composition score can serve as an effective indicator for identifying loan quality and be included in other commonly used loan evaluation models for accuracy improvement.

Non-performing Loans in Turkish Banking Sector and Balance Sheets Effects

In the 21st century, while the scope of banking activities has been expanding every day, collecting deposits and providing credit remain as their main and most important functions. They transfer the collected funds thanks to the market confidence they create back to the market in terms of the credits they give. For the organizations operating in the banking sector, crediting is the highest revenue earning source. However, uncollected loans may disrupt the activities of banks and may reduce their effectiveness. Therefore, the control of bank credits has a particular importance in the bank balance sheets. In this study, the relationship between bank balance sheets and non-performing loans （NPL） will be analyzed using Granger causality test and vector autoregressive （VAR） method. This study aims to discuss the impact of NPL on balance sheets and contribute to making correct credit decisions. It also intends to assist to reduce the NPL ratios of banks and minimize the level of negativity in their financial statements.

Research in the Securitization of the Non-performing Loans of China＇s State-owned Banks

In this paper, through analyzing the necessity of the securitization of the non-performing loans of China＇s state-owned banks, the author proposes some tentative ideas for the securitization of the non-performing loans and works out some problems that need to be solved in this process.

基于AHP层次分析法的世行贷款项目绩效评价实践研究——以兰州文理学院为例

世行贷款项目绩效评价,对于项目实施效果及提高资金使用效率具有重要的意义。以兰州文理学院为例,运用AHP层次分析法构建绩效评价指标体系,将项目绩效分为多个层次和指标,包括相关性、效率、效果、可持续性。确定各指标权重,通过专家打分的方式收集数据并计算,最终对项目绩效进行综合评价。结果表明,项目实施取得了较好的成就,但项目管理、监督机制、审批程序需进一步完善。进而提出加强项目管理,优化审批程序,完善监督机制,积极筹措配套资金等策略,为我国世行贷款项目绩效评价提供实践参考。

Loan growth and bank solvency:evidence from the Pakistani banking sector

Background:The dramatic loan growth and changes in the Pakistani banking system in mid-2000s have led to significant research attention on borrowers and lenders.This expansion and diversification in financial sector was driven by structural reforms,political stability and significant economic growth.Against this background,this study investigates the loan growth and risk-taking behavior of the banks during the expansionary periods of lending.Method:This study used dynamic two-step system generalized method of moment’s estimation technique,based on data taken from 32 banks in Pakistan over 2006-2014.Result:Loan growth has a significant effect on bank-specific and macroeconomicspecific variables.Loan growth in the previous year raises non-performing loans and decreases the solvency of banks with a time lag of many years.The driving force behind this phenomenon is weak prudential regulation among competitors,the asymmetric information of the borrowers,and,most importantly,that banks underestimate the risk of lending during credit booms.Conclusion:More regulatory measures are required to ensure a strong financial system when the volume of non-performing loan grows significantly.An increase in the capital requirement policy for rapidly growing banks is also needed because the problem of abnormal loan growth cannot be detected at the current time.At the same time,strong supervision is necessary to avoid the adverse consequences of borrower selection.

Loan Loss Provisioning Practices

The purpose of this paper is to come up with factors in loan loss provisioning practices on commercial banks that reflect on collectability of defaulted loans. The need for this research is due to failures in the loan loss provisioning practices which resulted in loan loss provisions （LLP） not reflecting on collectability of the defaulted loans. As a consequence, the banks do not capture their loss expectations and do not continuously reassess their loss expectations as the conditions affecting their borrowers may change. Henceforth, in their financial reporting, the banks do not represent relevantly and faithfully their true underlying credit risks conditions. When the banks do not represent relevantly and faithfully their true underlying risk conditions, they contradict the objectives of useful financial reporting. The results showed that among explanatory variables, bad debt recoveries as a factor in loan loss provisioning practices that reflect on collectability of defaulted loans was rejected. Bad debt recoveries was a biased variable and inconsistent estimator. In context of perceived credit risks as the basis to make credit judgments, an estimate of bad debt recoveries had not fulfilled the criteria. On the other hand, non-performing loans （NPL） as a factor in loan loss provisioning practices was not rejected.

似然函数视角下小企业信用风险最优评价指标体系的建立

合理评价小企业的信用风险,有利于改善小企业融资难的现状,促进金融发展和增加就业。评价小企业信用风险的前提是建立一套合理的信用风险评价指标体系。这涉及到两个科学问题:一是在众多信用评价指标中,如何遴选出可用于信用评价、即具有违约判别能力的指标。二是指标的不同组合方式可以构成不同的指标体系,n个指标可以构成2n-1种指标体系,如何遴选出一个最优的信用风险评价指标体系。本文提出了通过对数似然函数值衡量指标及指标体系违约判别能力这一新的标准,以对数似然函数值最大为目标函数,构建0-1整数规划,通过遗传算法求解出违约鉴别能力最大的小企业信用风险最优评价指标体系。以28个城市的贷款小企业为对象,建立了一套涵盖了“营业利润率”、“小企业授信情况”、“恩格尔系数”、“抵押品的清偿能力”等17个指标的最优信用风险评价指标体系。

Non-performing loans(NPLs),liquidity creation,and moral hazard:Case of Chinese banks

This study analyzes the impact of non-performing loans(NPLs)on bank liquidity creation to investigate the existence of moral hazard problem in Chinese banks.It uses data from 197 listed and unlisted Chinese banks,spanning the period 2005 to 2014.Total liquidity creation by Chinese banks is declining,and NPLs ratio has started to increase following a continuous decline between 2005 and 2012.Using one-step system GMM estimation,fixed and random effect model,and pool data analysis,we find that liquidity creation by Chinese banks does not depend on NPLs ratio,i.e.,we did not find the evidence of moral hazard problem in Chinese banks.We repeated the analysis for small and large banks and the results of these sub-samples reinforced our findings for the aggregate sample.

Do Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Vary with the Income Levels of Countries?

This paper explores the macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans(NPL) in 19 Asian countries(low to high income economies) using the Generalized Method of Moments estimation approach based on the economic data for the period between 1998 and 2015. The categorization of the economies is based on the average gross national income per capita as set by the World Bank.Specifically, the paper aims to evaluate if the determinants of NPL vary with the income levels of the countries. The results indicate that the NPL is strongly influenced by the inflation rate. The effect is,however, negative in the high-income and the middle-income countries and positive in the low-income countries. The GDP per capita has a dynamic negative relationship with the NPL in the high-income and the low-income countries. The remittance has a significant positive association in the high-income and a significant negative association in the low-income countries. Similarly, the unemployment rate has a positive effect on NPL in the middle-income and the low-income countries. With the rise in the official exchange rate, the NPL level increases in the low-income countries. The overall estimation results suggest that the NPL in Asian banking system depend on some key macroeconomic variables,such as unemployment rate, inflation rate, official exchange rate, remittance received and gross domestic product per capita, and these associations vary with the income level of the countries. Therefore,economic level of a country should be carefully considered while formulating credit policy to minimize credit risks in the banking system.

欧洲投资银行贷款项目河南珍稀优质用材林可持续经营项目绩效评价分析

介绍了欧洲投资银行贷款河南珍稀优质用材林可持续经营项目的实施情况,绩效评价的开展情况,从相关性、效率、效果和可持续性4个方面进行了分析评价,指出了项目实施过程中存在的问题,提出了实施类似项目的工作建议。

广西世界银行贷款结核病控制项目中期评估结果分析

目的评估世行贷款项目在广西结核病控制规划中的作用,为广西结核病防治提供建设性的意见。方法按照卫生部世行贷款结核病控制项目中期评估的统一要求,各级项目执行单位完成表格填写和自查自评工作,自治区级对资料进行收集、复核以及汇总,调查表全部录入计算机进行分析。结果广西2004年DOTS策略覆盖率达到100%;2004年和2005年发现的传染性肺结核病人超过项目目标的要求,传染性肺结核病人治愈率均超过85%。50个贫困县新涂阳肺结核病人登记率逐年增加,从2003年的10.4/10万上升到2005年的32.25/10万;2003年贫困县新涂阳肺结核病人治愈率76.7%,2004年达到了88.6%,2005年达到92.1%。结论通过实施世行贷款结核病控制项目,实现广西结核病控制规划中期目标,初步建立可持续发展机制,但仍需进一步加强结核病控制工作。

基于DEA交叉模型的中国银行业效率研究

商业银行效率是从投入和产出角度对银行综合经营能力的测度,对银行效率造成影响的因素是多方面的。利用2008—2014年国内35家商业银行的经营数据构建面板样本,分别测出国有、股份制和城商行的交叉评价效率,并通过分析各类因素对交叉效率的影响,得出以下结论:盈利能力对国有银行效率的影响最为显著,影响股份制商业银行效率的主要因素是盈利能力、人力资源配置能力和风险管理能力,影响城市商业银行效率的主要因素为人力资源配置能力、盈利能力和贷款能力。因此,国有银行应优化资产结构,加强内部管理,主动实施差异化战略;股份制商业银行应进一步扩大市场份额,完善激励机制,不断增强风险管理能力;城市商业银行应依靠自身相对优势获取竞争地位。

基于层次分析方法的助学贷款风险评价

针对我国商业银行助学贷款的风险问题,应用层次分析方法,通过对我国商业银行助学贷款风险评价指标权重的计算,得出商业银行助学贷款风险权重由大到小的排序为信用风险、政策风险、管理风险和环境风险.最后提出了规避商业银行助学贷款风险的对策.

抓住机遇 促进实验室建设

从实验室建设的实际出发 ,介绍了抓住合校、世界银行贷款、实验室评估、学位评估等良好机遇 ,促进实验室建设的一些具体做法和体会 ,并对如何抓住机遇 ,谋求发展作了探讨。

建设项目经济评价问题探讨

建设项目经济评价是项目前期工作的重要内容,评价过程中涉及到的利息资本化或费用化、经济评价指标所得税前或所得税后选择、增值税(进项税额)抵扣与固定资产关系等内容会给经济评价工作者造成一定的困惑,进而对经济评价的合理性和准确性造成一定的影响。为此,文章从指标概念、原理分析和计算过程等方面对上述几个问题进行分析,为理解相关指标和进行建设项目经济评价提供借鉴。

乡村振兴背景下林权抵押贷款风险识别、评价及防控

林权抵押贷款是金融支持乡村振兴、扶持农村经济发展、实现广大农民脱贫致富的重要金融创新。首先,从林权抵押贷款相关主体的角度识别了林权抵押贷款的抵押物风险、信用违约风险、业务管理风险、法律和政策风险,并据此构建了涵盖5项一级指标与11项二级指标的林权抵押贷款风险评价指标体系;然后,对辽宁省进行实地调研并采用因子分析方法评价了辽宁省14个地级市的林权抵押贷款风险水平;最后,从健全林权价值评估体系、健全林权流转市场、规范信贷操作流程、构建抵押贷款担保体系以及建立抵押物收储机构这5个方面提出了防控林权抵押贷款风险的对策建议。这有助于识别、评价及防控我国林权抵押贷款的金融风险,充分发挥金融创新对乡村振兴的支持作用。

组合评价方法在银行信用风险评价中的应用

针对贷款客户评价选择问题,在对已有研究方法分析的基础上,提出了以熵权与偏好顺序结构评估法相结合的排序方法。以借贷人的财务状况、借贷人的管理水平、借贷人的行业地位、借贷人资产的变现性和借贷人历史信用状况为评价准则,利用信息熵来确定评价准则的权重,用偏好顺序评价法确定贷款客户的贷款顺序,并进行了灵敏度分析。最后通过算例证明了该方法的有效性。

网络个人信贷大数据风险控制

风险控制是网络个人信贷中的关键点,但网络个人信贷存在额度小和规模经营的特征,使得传统风险控制手段难于实施。大数据技术为网络个人信贷风险控制提供了有效的解决方案。本文描绘了网络个人信贷大数据风险控制的基本流程,介绍了各个主要环节中大数据技术的应用,强调了全面风险控制的理念。