Virtualization of Real Estate Industry and Housing Bubbles --Empirical Evidence from China

In the last twenty years, China has experienced a rapid development in the real estate industry. The continuous rising house price causes many social and economic problems and draws a lot of attentions from academia, business world and government. Many researchers shed light on this problem from different angles, but till today, it hasn’t been fully resolved. In this paper, we try to examine the real estate bubble from a virtual economic perspective. We think that the virtual feature of real estate alters its economic role from a purely living and working place to a financing instrument. We use the newest monthly data of China real estate market from 2006 to 2018 and estimate the relationship between the housing bubble and real estate industry virtualization. We identify a significant positive association between house price index and the purchase price of land in real estate investment. This result suggests that virtual feature of real estate has deepen the bubble problem in the industry and its virtualization degree appears to be closely related to the virtual feature of land and its price proportion to real estate investment.

Benefit Evaluation of Real Estate Industry Based on SBM Model

According to the situation of real estate industry in different provinces and cities,the benefit is different,and the benefit of real estate industry in some regions is low.Based on the statistical data of real estate industry in various regions,this paper selects nine indicators,such as the number of enterprises,the average number of employees,the land purchase area(10000 square meters)in this year,to evaluate and analyze the benefit of real estate industry in 31 regions of China by using two-stage super efficiency model.The results show that the input-output of the real estate industry in 17 regions is effective,and the remaining 14 regions are DEA ineffective.The reasons for the inefficiency of the input-output are analyzed,and some suggestions to improve the efficiency are given.

Existing European Buildings and Cities： Economic Improvement and Evaluation of the Cost-Benefit Related to Lifecycle and Performance

In this study, the interdependency is presented between the characteristics of the buildings and the relative economic value, in order to plan economic policies and preconditions for improving the quality of the European buildings heritage through access, by an holistic approach, to the necessary f＇mancial resources. The economic value of a real estate asset is closely connected to the construction features and their performance over time （lifecycle）. Safer, more comfortable and productive buildings for inhabitants are at the same time more operationally efficient and economically convenient for the owners. Solidity characteristics and static resistance to earthquakes, eco-efficiency and other constructive qualities of the building will provide benefits in the long term, and they are directly related the LCC （life cycle cost） including specific construction and/or maintenance costs. Moreover, these characteristics have an impact on the ＂market value＂ and on the ＂mortgage lending value＂ of properties, as well as on the possibility of financing the purchase through access to more affordable mortgages, and to make really feasible conversions even in the absence of public financial resources. This study introduces a new approach for conversions involving whole buildings or city areas. This research identifies the economic sustainability of a project by combining principles and suitable methodologies, together with performance and other characteristics. These aspects constitute the essential prerequisite for obtaining mortgages from banks and/or financial resources from international investors.

Real Estate Evaluation in Germany

The real estate market is at risk to produce economic bubbles, which produce heavy financial losses while bursting. To flatten these bubbles, Germany tried since the 1960s a way of thorough analysis and high transparency of the real estate market as a public task. The experts from different professions in the local market effectively are included in a honorary form. The competition between the experts and also between the experts and the public institution is intentionally maintained.

Real Estate in Chongqing as a Pillar Industry: A Quantitative Analysis

The definition of pillar industry is stated and its indicators, including the proportion of added value in the GDP, the degree of industry correlation, the income elasticity of demand, and the growth rate of employment will be discussed. And then index weighing is determined based on the degree of importance. The result of the quantitative analysis of real estate industry in Chongqing suggests that its first three evaluating indicators live up to the index requirement of a pillar industry while its degree of industry correlation is not satisfactory. An overall evaluation indicates that the real estate industry in Chongqing meets the requirements of pillar industry.

非对称信息视角下中国区域金融风险的影响机制

本文基于委托代理理论,构建非对称信息视角下中国区域金融风险影响机制的分析框架,并采用TVP-SV-VAR模型探究不同地区区域内金融风险影响机制的异质性。研究表明,非对称信息下金融系统委托代理行为致使商业银行存在信贷配给,资金倾斜助长了地方债扩张和房地产泡沫累积,一旦债务违约及泡沫破裂造成大量银行不良资产积聚,将引发区域金融风险。异质性研究发现,经济发达地区中房地产泡沫是区域金融风险形成的主导因素;经济次发达地区中地方政府过度举债是引致区域金融风险的主要冲击;而经济欠发达地区的区域金融风险是地方政府过度举债与房地产泡沫共同作用所致。国家金融监督管理总局应严控商业银行信贷资金流向,并对地方债扩张和房地产泡沫等区域金融风险影响因素实行“属性+对策”的差异化监管,构建风险治理的区域协作平台,提高区域金融风险的防范处置能力。

美国是如何应对次贷危机的?

“次贷危机”后美国政府出台了一系列措施,比较成功地化解了危机。他山之石,可以攻玉,美国应对“次贷危机”的举措为我国应对当下的房地产问题提供了有价值的借鉴。本文在简要介绍危机产生的原因、过程和经济后果的基础上,着重介绍和评述美国应对房地产危机的关键举措,包括问题资产救助计划、金融救援计划、非常规货币政策、直接救助金融机构、金融监管体系改革。以期能从中获得经验教训,服务于监管部门的政策制定,更好地防范与化解中国面临的房地产风险。

日本房地产泡沫对我国房地产业发展的镜鉴

2021年以来我国的房地产市场供求关系已经出现根本变化,房地产市场的交易量和价格均出现明显回落。如何应对房地产市场的风险是当前我国宏观经济面临的重大挑战。环顾全球经济发展历史,日本应对房地产泡沫风险的经验和教训最值得我们借鉴。日本政府应对措施存在重大失误,耽误了政策救助的最佳时机,叠加经济基本面和人口的长期走弱,造成了私人部门长期的资产“负债表型衰退”,导致日本在房地产危机后经济长期低迷。我们要认真吸取日本的教训,尽量避免出现房地产市场泡沫破裂而导致的系统性风险,提前采取有力措施,防范化解房地产企业流动性风险等。要增强经济的自主性,减少对外部经济的依赖;要持续优化经济结构,推动产业转型升级,降低对房地产业的依赖,推动符合未来时代需求的高科技等产业发展。

无人机倾斜摄影测量技术在房地一体测绘中的应用

房屋一体测量通常采用GPS-RTK、全站仪的实地测量方法,本文分析了无人机倾斜摄影的工作原理与应用优点,提出将该技术应用到房地一体项目中,以实际应用为例,研究无人机倾斜摄影测量在房地一体测量中的技术流程,并对获取的数据成果精度进行详细分析验证。结果表明,该方法成图精度能够满足房地一体大比例尺矢量测图的精度要求,与传统测量方式相比,可减少投入,提高效率。

基于DEA的房地产资源投资效率研究

本研究运用数据包络分析法(DEA)对我国房地产业投资效率进行评价分析。研究发现,我国仅8个地区的房地产投资综合效率有效;9个地区规模效率有效,多数地区规模效率值大于0.9,表明我国房地产规模状态良好;纯技术效率有效地区12个,但差异较大,其值在0.557-0.925间波动,各地区技术差异明显;规模收益状态呈现出较大差异。

基于大数据的房地产评价与监测预警平台建设

房地产行业的稳定运行对国民经济发展意义重大,而利用数字化、智能化手段赋能强化政府对房地产市场的监管及调控工作具有广泛应用价值。本文依托丰富的房地产时空数据资源及数据仓库、GIS、云计算等技术,设计并实现了基于大数据体系的房地产动态评价与监测预警平台,建设了覆盖“房地产项目用地—房地产项目开发—物业小区”全链条的房地产市场信息化监测模式,为房地产市场监管、调控工作提供了有效、便捷、精准的技术手段,助力政府引导房地产市场健康平稳发展。

无人机倾斜摄影技术的不动产测量应用与探讨

针对传统不动产测量外业工期长、工作效率低、成本高的问题,本文基于无人机倾斜摄影测量技术开展了不动产测量技术研究。以广西某地农村房地一体不动产权籍调查项目为例,将无人机倾斜摄影测量技术应用到不动产权籍调查工作中,采用传统测量方法实地采集检核数据,并与无人机倾斜摄影测量获取的不动产测量成果进行外符合精度分析。结果表明,采用无人机倾斜摄影测量技术获取的不动产测量成果完全满足《广西农村“房地一体”不动产权籍调查技术细则(试行)》一级精度要求,显著提高了不动产权属调查工作效率,为农村房地一体不动产权籍调查项目顺利实施提供了技术支撑,也为从事不动产测绘作业人员提供了有益的技术参考。

基于无人机倾斜摄影技术的农村不动产测绘研究

将基于倾斜摄影测量技术建成的三维模型场景用于不动产登记业务工作中,能将复杂的不动产信息借助三维模型进行准确、真实表达。利用ContextCapture软件进行三维模型构建,以广西某自然村落为例构建模型,在三维模型的基础上进行房产数据采集,同时采用传统测量方式采集控制点数据,进行精度对比分析。结果表明,无人机倾斜摄影测量技术可以满足1∶500不动产测绘精度要求。

2024房地产开发企业综合实力测评研究分析

本文通过客观分析房地产开发企业在企业规模、风险管理、盈利能力、成长潜力、运营绩效、创新能力、产品品质、社会责任八大方面的表现,全面衡量企业的综合实力,形成了2024房地产开发企业综合实力测评成果。从测评结果看,2023年我国房地产市场仍处于下行、探底调整期。在坚持“房住不炒”调控主基调前提下,房地产政策逐渐向支持产业发展转变。房企大多数指标均值持续下降,但降幅有所收窄。

2024房地产上市公司测评研究分析

本报告通过客观分析房地产上市公司在资本市场、运营规模、偿债能力、盈利能力、成长能力、经营效率、创新能力、社会责任八个方面的表现,全面衡量上市房企的综合实力,形成了2024房地产上市公司测评研究成果。2023年,我国房地产市场延续深度调整,各地政府供需两端支持性政策持续加码,致力于推动房地产市场企稳复苏和平稳健康运行。2023年,上市房企大多数财务指标均值持续下降,市值全线缩水,15家房企从A股和港股退市。

基于GIS技术的房地产区位价值评价分析研究

地理空间位置能够对房地产区位价值产生较大影响,对地理空间位置的优劣及其对房地产区位价值影响程度进行综合分析,以GIS技术为基础,分别对地理空间位置的商业服务繁华程度、城市交通通达度、周边生活设施完善程度、景点景观以及环境质量进行分析评价,利用GIS技术多类型海量数据处理及空间分析能力,将各类评价因子对区域房地产区位价值的影响进行可视化呈现,并进行量化分析,形成房地产区位价值分析成果,直观展示研究区房地产区位价值空间分布,为城市建设规划设计以及购房消费者提供较为可靠的房地产区位价值数据支撑,对城市房地产资源的开发具有较强的指导意义。

基于熵值法的财务绩效研究——以A公司为例

改革开放后,城市化的快速发展使农村居民大量涌入城市,城市房屋需求增多,同时中国进入大基建时代,房地产行业确立为国家经济的支柱产业,在国内发挥了不可替代的作用。在此背景下房地产行业成为社会关注的重点,变为经济研究的热门领域。为了评估A公司的财务绩效,文章采用熵值法作为比较其他财务绩效评价方法的手段,从四大能力方面分析研究了目标企业的财务绩效,发现问题并提出改进措施。

第三方评估在精装修质量管理中的应用探讨

旨在探讨在房地产住宅精装修施工阶段,第三方评估在项目质量管理中的重要性和必要性,以补充房企内部质量管理职能的不足。依托多年的装修项目管理实践经验,结合具体的精装修工程案例,并通过对房企内部质量管理职能部门的检查评估和第三方评估两者的优劣势对比,对第三方评估在精装修施工阶段的应用进行了深入分析。研究结果表明,第三方评估能够为精装修项目提供独立、客观、科学和全面的评估,有助于提高精装修项目质量以及防范精装交付风险,但同时也存在着一定的局限性,需要结合装修项目的实际特点和装修行业的发展情况进行相应的完善。研究结果表明,第三方评估在精装修施工阶段的应用对于加强装修项目质量管理具有重要作用,且第三方评估作为工程行业共享型的数据库,有望成为推动装修行业数字化、标准化进程的强有力引擎。

Evaluation Research on Property Tax System in China

The reform of tax sharing system has made achievements from 1994 to now, but it also causes the lack of main tax category in local-tax system. Meanwhile, the disadvantage of property tax system in China exacerbates the dilemma of local finance, which can＇ t play the role of regulating real estate market. As the main content of real-estate tax reform, house property tax reform has been widely concerned and discussed since 2003. The paper analyzes the characteristics and disadvantages of the existing real-estate tax in China and the real-estate tax reform in Shanghai and Chongqing. The analysis indicates that the perfect real-estate tax has been established in China, but it is in the exploration stage.

房地产泡沫时空动态演变分析——以宁夏回族自治区为例

在研究宁夏回族自治区房地产经济发展特点的基础上,选取房价增长率/实际GDP增长率、房价收入比、房地产开发投资/固定资产投资率(%)、房屋空置率(%)、房地产投资额增长率/GDP增长率、房地产贷款增长率/金融机构贷款增长率共6个预警指标建立了宁夏房地产泡沫预警模型,随后利用功效系数法对2008-2020年宁夏房地产泡沫进行时空动态演变分析,预警结果表明宁夏房地产泡沫总体处于不断波动的阶段,并有向好发展的趋势,各地级市泡沫水平与地理区位密切相关。据此相应的提出消除泡沫、规避风险的宁夏房地产行业发展新方向、新角度、新层次,不断加强推行房地产行业“去库存”政策,重点监测关注“房屋空置率”指标,以此推进宁夏房地产行业健康有序发展。