Forest use suitability:Towards decision-making-oriented sustainable management of forest ecosystem services

Management of forest lands considering multi-functional approaches is the basis to sustain or enhance the provi-sion of specific benefits,while minimizing negative impacts to the environment.Defining a desired management itinerary to a forest depends on a variety of factors,including the forest type,its ecological characteristics,and the social and economic needs of local communities.A strategic assessment of the forest use suitability(FUS)(namely productive,protective,conservation-oriented,social and multi-functional)at regional level,based on the provision of forest ecosystem services and trade-offs between FUS alternatives,can be used to develop management strategies that are tailored to the specific needs and conditions of the forest.The present study assesses the provision of multiple forest ecosystem services and employs a decision model to identify the FUS that sup-ports the most present and productive ecosystem services in each stand in Catalonia.For this purpose,we apply the latest version of the Ecosystem Management Decision Support(EMDS)system,a spatially oriented decision support system that provides accurate results for multi-criteria management.We evaluate 32 metrics and 12 as-sociated ecosystem services indicators to represent the spatial reality of the region.According to the results,the dominant primary use suitability is social,followed by protective and productive.Nevertheless,final assignment of uses is not straightforward and requires an exhaustive analysis of trade-offs between all alternative options,in many cases identifying flexible outcomes,and increasing the representativeness of multi-functional use.The assignment of forest use suitability aims to significantly improve the definition of the most adequate management strategy to be applied.

The concept of narrative evidence-based medicine and shared decision-making in traditional Chinese medical practice

For the explosive development of emerging diagnostic and therapeutic technologies brought by the advancement of precision medicine strategy, shared decision-making could improve the quality of clinical decision-making and promote the transformation of clinical research evidence in TCM. Paying attention to patients＇ narrative needs and strengthening medical humanistic concerns could improve clinical outcome and patient satisfaction. We described the origins and development of evidence-based medicine, narrative medicine and shared decision-making, and analyzed the existing problems in TCM clinical decision-making. Further, we put forward the model of shared decision-making between clinicians and patients under the guidance of narrative evidence-based medicine concepts and methods.

A decision framework for identifying models to estimate forest ecosystem services gains from restoration

Restoring degraded forests and agricultural lands has become a global conservation priority. A growing number of tools can quantify ecosystem service tradeoffs associated with forest restoration. This evolving ＂tools landscape＂ presents a dilemma： more tools are available, but selecting appropriate tools has become more challenging. We present a Restoration Ecosystem Service Tool Selector （RESTS） framework that describes key characteristics of 13 ecosystem service assessment tools. Analysts enter information about their decision context, services to be analyzed, and desired outputs. Tools are filtered and presented based on five evaluative criteria： scalability, cost, time requirements, handling of uncertainty, and applicability to benefit-cost analysis. RESTS uses a spreadsheet interface but a web-based interface is planned. Given the rapid evolution of ecosystem services science, RESTS provides an adaptable framework to guide forest restoration decision makers toward tools that can help quantify ecosystem services in support of restoration.

Model based decision support system for land use changes and socio-economic assessments

Hydrological models are often linked with other models in cognate sciences to understand the interactions among climate, earth, water, ecosystem, and human society. This paper presents the development and implementation of a decision support system（DSS） that links the outputs of hydrological models with real-time decision making on social-economic assessments and land use management. Discharge and glacier geometry changes were simulated with hydrological model, water availability in semiarid environments. Irrigation and ecological water were simulated by a new commercial software MIKE HYDRO. Groundwater was simulated by MODFLOW. All the outputs of theses hydrological models were taken as inputs into the DSS in three types of links： regression equations, stationary data inputs, or dynamic data inputs as the models running parallel in the simulation periods. The DSS integrates the hydrological data, geographic data, social and economic statistical data, and establishes the relationships with equations, conditional statements and fuzzy logics. The programming is realized in C＋＋. The DSS has four remarkable features：（1） editable land use maps to assist decision-making;（2） conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources;（3） interactions among water, earth, ecosystem, and humans; and（4） links with hydrological models. The overall goal of the DSS is to combine the outputs of scientific models, knowledge of experts, and perspectives of stakeholders, into a computer-based system, which allows sustainability impact assessment within regional planning; and to understand ecosystem services and integrate them into land and water management.

A Risk-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Approach to Evaluating Transboundary Water Development—The Case of Lower Mekong River Basin

The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) covers the lower part of the Mekong river basin, including Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Due to numerous pressures from high population growth and intensive hydropower development, the LMB has been facing significant challenges concerning its biodiversity and ecosystem. In 2017, Mekong River Commission (MRC), an intergovernmental organisation founded in 1995 among LMB countries, established the Council Study, which analysed the impacts of water development scenarios concerning the environmental, socioeconomic aspects of the LMB. This paper explores the nature of risks to the LMB water development and subsequently evaluates LMB’s water development scenarios described in the Council Study by using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. MCDA method has been widely applied in the field of water resource management in order to assist the decision-making process by systematically evaluating a certain number of alternatives against well-selected criteria through a preference rating scheme. By implementing a risk-based comprehensive assessment of the LMB transboundary water, this study provides insights into the impacts of the increasing risks to the ecosystem and human beings on the water development of the basin over time, which assists to change the awareness and the perspective toward humans’ risks and transboundary river ecosystem of decision-makers. This paper provides valuable recommendations for MRC to improve their policy concerning benefit-sharing scheme, water planning and risk mitigation strategies.

Empirical study on the evidence-based medicine in court of China

Evidence-based medicine(EBM)is recognized as one of the highest-quality scientific approaches in the medical community around the globe.It calls for doctors to use the best available scientific evidence in clinical decision-making.This paper used an empirical study on 44 EBM related judicial cases in China,the result shows the EBM is commonly used as a supplement to the expert opinion in actual judicial review,it is deemed to illuminate the causation in the case fact rather than as the standards of care,which has the similar characteristics as"documentary evidence",and over the years the Chinese judicial practice formed a"three-stage"judicial review rule on EBM:(1)the first stage is whether the evidence itself can meet the standards of EBM;(2)the second stage is when determining the evidence presented by parties is sufficient to meet the legal standards of EBM,and whether it can be applied in a court case would depend upon comprehensive consideration of adaptability and maturity of EBM;(3)the third stage is whether to treat EBM as the only basis in causation analysis.

从模型到应用:基于生态系统服务权衡的乡村生态修复规划工具研究

在全球范围内的气候变化背景下,具有多种功能和服务价值的乡村生态空间成为当下国际生态规划研究与合作的关注热点之一。为实现乡村生态空间的精准管理与规划,中德双方围绕联合课题“生态系统服务概念在德国鲁尔与中国大都市区韧性发展模式下的绿色基础设施规划应用”进行了深入探索。在土地利用与土地覆盖类型的基础上,进一步识别了生物群落类型,并基于调节、供给、文化三大生态系统服务类型,选取了评估生态系统服务供需权衡的指标和对应权重,构建了乡村生态空间规划场景下的生态系统服务价值评测模型。以上海市水库村为例,运用该课题的评测模型,初步评估了典型乡村生态规划场景下的生态系统服务价值。最后,从应用尺度、研究范围以及操作流程三个方面总结了该评测模型的优化方向。

生态产品价值核算研究进展与应用展望

生态产品价值核算是生态产品价值实现机制构建的重要技术支撑,对推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型具有重要意义。文章系统梳理了生态产品概念的发展历程、生态产品价值核算理论基础与核算内容,以及国内外关于功能价格法、当量因子法、能值评估法的研究进展及其应用示例,并从完善生态产品价值核算理论体系、完善生态产品价值核算技术手段、推动价值核算结果应用三个层面提出未来研究展望。

决策者期望下虚拟孵化生态系统的群体最优利益分配模型

基于生态系统的群体决策者对其孵化项目所获得的收益预期(分为乐观和悲观两类),构建了决策者期望下虚拟孵化生态系统的群体最优利益分配模型,并给出了考虑群体加入意愿的最优利益分配约束条件。最后,通过洪泰智能制造案例分析了群体最优利益分配对其乐观(和悲观)期望值的敏感性。结果表明:在某群体持乐观期望情形下,其最优利益分配为孵化项目所得总利益的线性增函数,为联盟所有成员乐观期望值总和的线性减函数;在边际贡献相同情况下,群体最优利益分配从大到小依次为孵化器、高校或科研机构、创投机构和中介机构。结论不但弥补了“互联网+”下虚拟孵化器的模型分析理论,而且对虚拟孵化器的创新决策具有现实指导意义。

Making Evidence-based Decisions in the Clinical Practice of Integrative Medicine

In 1948, the first clinical paper adopting the protocol of randomized and controlled design was published in British Medical Journal by Bradford Hill,a noted British biostatistician, who introduced rigorous theory of mathematical statistics into clinical design the first time and successfully evaluated the therapeutic effect of streptomycin on tuberculosis.

Ontological Foundation of Ecosystem Services and the Human Dimension of Agroecosystems

The purpose of this contribution is to lay down a preparatory groundwork for an ontology of ecosystem services in the setting of agroecosystems viewed as social-ecological systems. This ontology aims at defining a set of representational primitives with which to model agroecosystems, through the prism of ecosystem service flows to and from agriculture. It helps delineate between biophysical structures, processes, functions, and ecosystem services. On the human side of agroecosystems, the ontology includes a conceptualization of the behaviors that govern the management of ecosystem services at different levels. It strengthens the existing analytic basis of multidisciplinary research on ecosystem services in agroecosystems by prompting modelers to stick to a homogeneous dynamic-system decomposition of the target agroecosystem. Most importantly, it provides the conceptual link between biophysical research on ecosystem services and equally important considerations on cognitive and social aspects involved in agricultural and landscape-level decisions that aim at implementing agroecological principles.

Necessary Conditions and Situational Variables of Payments for Ecosystem Services

Clarifying the necessary conditions for the emergence of payments for ecosystem services (PES) and the situational variables that affect PES is the basis for their interpretation, prediction, and selection. This article proposes an analytical framework for the emergence of PES and argues that the key to determining whether PES can occur and whether a selected PES program is appropriate is to evaluate the net gain. When payers anticipate that a PES program will provide a satisfactory number of ES and a net gain over the opportunity cost and will cover all costs, it is assumed that the program will be implemented. When it is difficult to accurately evaluate the net gain of PES, the situational variables that affect the costs and benefits need to be examined. The group characteristics, ES characteristics, spatial and temporal contacts between the suppliers and demanders, correlation with private goods and additionality are important situational variables that affect the emergence and choice of PES.

我国生态产品价值核算的研究进展、问题与展望

生态产品价值核算是践行“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念的关键路径,是促进生态产品价值实现的重要基础性工作.近年来,相关学者和科研机构围绕生态产品价值核算的基础理论、技术方法与成果应用开展了大量研究,生态产品价值核算逐渐成为生态经济学研究的热点和难点.为系统梳理我国生态产品价值核算的研究进展,识别核算过程中存在的问题与不足,本文采用文献分析与系统归纳的方法,总结了生态产品价值核算的发展历程,解读了国家对相关工作的部署安排与地方实践进展,识别了生态产品价值核算在核算范围与技术方法等方面存在的问题.本研究将生态产品价值核算发展历程划分为科学探索、实践推进和深化铺开3个阶段;发现了我国在当前研究中普遍将生态产品价值等同于生态系统生产总值(GEP)和生态系统服务价值的现象;明确了生态产品价值在当前无法被精确核算且核算结果不具有实际经济意义的现状.针对生态产品价值核算科目与范围不一致、实物量评估方法不确定性大以及价值量定价机制主观性强等问题,研究指出,生态产品价值核算的发展是一个长期和近期相结合的过程,应当像GDP一样核算GEP,下一步地方推进工作建议从完善基础理论框架、建立统计核算技术、形成地方业务能力和推进核算成果应用等方面持续发力,为建立健全生态产品价值实现机制提供理论和技术支撑.

基于生态系统服务簇分析的城市生态空间碳汇能力综合提升

[目的]城市生态空间兼具多种生态系统服务与多元生态价值。评估生态系统服务、识别生态系统服务簇有助于揭示不同服务的空间分布格局,为武汉生态空间建设提供可行性参考,制定差异化碳汇能力提升策略,以助力武汉市生态文明建设,为实现“双碳”目标提供科学依据和实践路径。[方法]以武汉市为例,选取与城市生态空间自然基底相关的碳储量、生境质量、水源涵养、水质净化、土壤保持5类模块,运用ArcGIS软件和InVEST模型分别进行生态系统服务评估和空间制图,使用自组织特征映射(self-organizing feature mapping,SOM)聚类模型识别生态系统服务簇,并着重考虑碳汇与4类生态系统服务的组合关系。[结果]根据生态系统服务簇的分布区域与组合模式,识别出生态均衡簇、生态保育簇、游憩水源簇、水土保育簇、人居环境簇、生态脆弱簇6类,再根据碳汇发育程度划分为碳汇保育区、碳汇潜力区、碳汇稀缺区3类分区。[结论]基于碳汇能力提升重新审视生态系统服务簇,为分类、分区提升碳汇能力提供了一种新的思路和方法,对优化城市生态空间布局具有重要意义,更有助于绿色低碳发展,推动“双碳”目标实现。

基于微分博弈的电商平台与商家合作模式研究

在数字经济的背景下,电商行业的快速发展对社会进步起到重要推动作用。为了研究电商平台和商家之间的合作模式,同时考虑商品商誉以及时间连续性,本文构建了由电商平台和多个商家组成的微分博弈模型;运用哈密尔顿-雅可比-贝尔曼方程,分别讨论分散式决策模型、集中式决策模型以及Stackelberg主从博弈模型下的电商平台和商家关于努力程度、商品定价等最优决策。通过对三种决策模型下参与者的努力程度、商品商誉以及系统整体收益的分析对比和数值实验,可以发现:在集中式的完全合作模式下,电商平台和商家的努力程度最高,商品商誉以及系统整体收益最高;而在Stackelberg主从博弈模型下,电商平台分担商家部分成本,平台与商家之间的合作与竞争并存,因此商品商誉和系统整体收益较分散式决策模型有所增加。因此得出结论:相比于各方独自谋利的分散式决策模型,电商平台与商家进行部分或者深度合作,可为双方带来更高收益,有利于整个电商生态系统的长远发展。

GEE支持下的1988—2022年淮北市土地利用变化及其对生态系统服务价值的影响

淮北矿区是全国重要的煤炭生产基地之一,其在安徽省经济发展中占据重要地位,分析该区域土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值(ESV)的影响具有重要意义。本文以淮北市为研究区,基于谷歌地球引擎云平台和分类决策树算法,对研究区内1988—2022年的Landsat影像进行分类,得到7个时期的土地利用分类数据,进而分析该市土地利用变化情况及其对ESV的影响。研究结果表明:(1)1988—2022年淮北市建设用地面积不断扩张至初始的8倍,而林地和草地面积则不断递减,主要转为建设用地和耕地,且水体面积在波动中不断增加,主要与采煤沉陷有关;(2)林地和草地退缩以及建设用地扩张导致了研究区ESV总值不断减少,已减少50%,影响了ESV的空间分布;(3)ESV对耕地较敏感,且其他土地利用系数敏感性均小于1,说明在研究以耕地为主的淮北市时,应当对ESV当量因子进行针对性改进。本文结果为推进淮北矿区可持续发展和高效合理配置土地资源提供了技术支持和科学依据。

生态系统服务制图研究进展

生态系统服务是生态学研究的前沿方向之一,生态系统服务制图是将生态系统服务的评估结果纳入到生态环境保护规划与管理决策制定与实施过程中的重要组成部分。生态系统服务制图是根据决策需求,选择合适的制图评价方法,对特定时空尺度上生态系统服务的空间分布以及在各种自然-社会因素共同影响下生态系统服务的情景变化进行量化描述的过程。它最终为决策参与者提供研究区域生态系统服务时空变化特征具体的、可视的量化描述,辅助决策者权衡利弊,最终制定出符合区域生态环境与人类社会共同可持续发展的最优决策。综述了生态系统服务制图的内涵及其在辅助决策过程中的重要作用;介绍了生态系统服务的重点研究内容(生态系统服务的提供、需求及权衡协同关系制图)及研究方法;并对目前研究中所存在的问题进行了深入的探讨,归纳了生态系统服务的制图评价流程及未来重点的研究方向。

生态系统服务消费模式、计量及其管理框架构建

当前,人类社会对生态系统服务的需求和消费日益增加,由此引发了生态系统服务的变化。然而,生态系统服务的消费机制仍然是一个空白的研究领域。本文以生态系统服务-消费-管理的互动关系为主线,从理论基础和实践应用的角度,对生态系统服务消费的概念理论、基本范式、度量体系和管理框架进行了探讨,将与人类消费关系密切的生态系统的供给功能分为生产功能和承载功能,将生态系统服务消费定义为人类生产和生活对生态系统服务的消耗、利用和占用,生态服务消费区分成直接消费和间接消费两种基本模式,强调生态系统服务直接与间接产品界定和消费者确定在生态系统服务消费研究中的重要性,初步给出了两种生态服务消费的不同计量方法。研究提出生态系统服务消费的函数表达式为:Ec=Edc[f(Xa,Xhz,Xgen,Xedu,Xbev,Xcmr,Xinc,…,Xn)]+Eidc。生态系统服务消费研究将为政府在生态系统服务的投资、贸易、补贴、税收等方面的决策,提供科学依据。

生态系统服务模型应用的研究

生态系统服务不仅是地球生命系统的支撑,同时也给人类提供了食物、医药、生产原料、文化等多种服务。随着城市扩张以及人口增加导致的生态系统破坏,人们逐渐认识到生态系统服务的重要性,对生态系统服务评估的模型和方法的需求也日渐增加。文章介绍了一种基于生态生产函数和经济评估方法的模型:In VEST(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs),In VEST模型是生态系统服务的定量评估模型,它基于不同土地利用情景对生态系统服务进行评估,权衡发展与保护之间的关系,提供最优的决策支持。该文通过对In VEST模型在国际上的典型应用案例分析,对In VEST模型的功能、结构、优点以及局限性等方面进行深入讨论,最终分析了该模型本身未来的发展方向,研究了In VEST模型应用于中国现状的城市生态规划的可能性。

生态系统管理的多目标体系和方法

20世纪90年代以来,人们开始采用“生态系统管理”这种基于生态系统原理的综合方法管理自然资源和生态环境,促进人类与自然的和谐发展。然而,生态系统自身的复杂性、动态性及不确定性特点使得“生态系统管理”难以形成明确的定义和方法体系,系统的多重尺度和目标也增加了管理的难度。近20年兴起的系统工程主要针对大规模复杂系统进行研究,实现系统的总体优化。多目标决策和决策支持系统是系统工程的常用技术方法,生态系统管理是“基于目标”的管理模式。本文概述了生态系统管理的概念和要素,从构建管理体系的角度着重阐述了生态系统管理目标体系的结构、构建过程及目标间的相互关系,针对生态系统的复杂特性探讨了多目标决策方法和决策支持系统在生态系统管理中的应用,以期能够对形成具有普遍意义和实际操作性的生态系统管理方法体系起到借鉴作用。