Wavelet Density Estimation and Statistical Evidences Role for a GARCH Model in the Weighted Distribution

We consider n observations from the GARCH-type model: Z = UY, where U and Y are independent random variables. We aim to estimate density function Y where Y have a weighted distribution. We determine a sharp upper bound of the associated mean integrated square error. We also make use of the measure of expected true evidence, so as to determine when model leads to a crisis and causes data to be lost.

GEOMORPHIC EVIDENCES FOR CENOZOIC UPLIFT IN THE EASTERN MARGIN OF QINGHAI—TIBET PLATEAU

The uplift history has been becoming the key for the geological science of Qinghai—Tibet plateau. The scholars abroad have reconstructed uplift history of the plateau by studying geological process of the inner globe, they considered that the altitude of the plateau got up to the maximum at 14Ma (M.Coleman et al, 1995; S.Turner et al, 1993)or the plateau got to the present elevation at about 8Ma (T.M.Harrison,1992). The Chinese geologists make use of substitutes of outer environmental elements to deduce that the uplift of Qinghai—Tibet plateau began from 3 4Ma(Li Jijun,1995). It is obvious that there are the different views and controversies about the plateau uplift history.

Element-Combinations from Evidences of Tectono-geochemistry of The Lekai Pb-Zn Deposit in Northwestern Guizhou, China

1 Introduction The Pb-Zn metallogenic area in Northwest Guizhou is located in the southwest margin of the Yangtze block,which is an important part of the Sichuan-Yunnan-Guizhou(SYG)Pb-Zn metallogenic province.So far,

New Evidences for the Adsorption of Methane over Oxide Surfaces

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Combination method of conflict evidences based on evidence similarity

Aiming at the problem that the traditional DempsterShafer(D-S) evidence theory cannot deal with conflicted evidences effectively and correctly, this paper points out that the key issue of this problem is to measure the degree of conflict between evidences correctly after analyzing various improved methods. The existing evidence conflict measure methods are analyzed, and a new evidence conflict measure method called evidence similarity measure based on the Tanimoto measure is proposed, while a new evidence combination method is proposed on the basis of evidence similarity measure. Firstly, the conflict degrees between evidences are obtained through the evidence similarity measure. Then the evidence sources are modified based on the credibility of different evidences and the weights of conflicted parts of evidences on different focal elements are determined. Finally, the fusion result is obtained by this method. Numerical examples show that the proposed method can effectively fuse evidences when evidences are consistent or highly conflicted, and it has a fast convergence speed, a high degree of accuracy and good adaptability.

Certainty factors of earthquake precursory anomaly evidences CF(E)

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Emerging role of exosomes in ulcerative colitis: Targeting NOD-like receptor family pyrin domain containing 3 inflammasome

Ulcerative colitis(UC)is a chronic recurrent inflammatory bowel disease.Despite ongoing advances in our understanding of UC,its pathogenesis is yet unelu-cidated,underscoring the urgent need for novel treatment strategies for patients with UC.Exosomes are nanoscale membrane particles that mediate intercellular communication by carrying various bioactive molecules,such as proteins,RNAs,DNA,and metabolites.The NOD-like receptor family pyrin domain containing 3(NLRP3)inflammasome is a cytosolic tripartite protein complex whose activation induces the maturation and secretion of proinflammatory cytokines interleukin-1β(IL-1β)and IL-18,triggering the inflammatory response to a pathogenic agent or injury.Growing evidence suggests that exosomes are new modulators of the NLRP3 inflammasome,with vital roles in the pathological process of UC.Here,recent evidence is reviewed on the role of exosomes and NLRP3 inflammasome in UC.First,the dual role of exosomes on NLRP3 inflammasome and the effect of NLRP3 inflammasome on exosome secretion are summarized.Finally,an outlook on the directions of exosome-NLRP3 inflammasome crosstalk research in the context of UC is proposed and areas of further research on this topic are high-lighted.

An Improved CREAM Model Based on DS Evidence Theory and DEMATEL

Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method(CREAM)is widely used in human reliability analysis(HRA).It defines nine common performance conditions(CPCs),which represent the factors thatmay affect human reliability and are used to modify the cognitive failure probability(CFP).However,the levels of CPCs are usually determined by domain experts,whichmay be subjective and uncertain.What’smore,the classicCREAMassumes that the CPCs are independent,which is unrealistic.Ignoring the dependence among CPCs will result in repeated calculations of the influence of the CPCs on CFP and lead to unreasonable reliability evaluation.To address the issue of uncertain information modeling and processing,this paper introduces evidence theory to evaluate the CPC levels in specific scenarios.To address the issue of dependence modeling,the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)method is used to process the dependence among CPCs and calculate the relative weights of each CPC,thus modifying the multiplier of the CPCs.The detailed process of the proposed method is illustrated in this paper and the CFP estimated by the proposed method is more reasonable.

Sparse Reconstructive Evidential Clustering for Multi-View Data

Although many multi-view clustering(MVC) algorithms with acceptable performances have been presented, to the best of our knowledge, nearly all of them need to be fed with the correct number of clusters. In addition, these existing algorithms create only the hard and fuzzy partitions for multi-view objects,which are often located in highly-overlapping areas of multi-view feature space. The adoption of hard and fuzzy partition ignores the ambiguity and uncertainty in the assignment of objects, likely leading to performance degradation. To address these issues, we propose a novel sparse reconstructive multi-view evidential clustering algorithm(SRMVEC). Based on a sparse reconstructive procedure, SRMVEC learns a shared affinity matrix across views, and maps multi-view objects to a 2-dimensional humanreadable chart by calculating 2 newly defined mathematical metrics for each object. From this chart, users can detect the number of clusters and select several objects existing in the dataset as cluster centers. Then, SRMVEC derives a credal partition under the framework of evidence theory, improving the fault tolerance of clustering. Ablation studies show the benefits of adopting the sparse reconstructive procedure and evidence theory. Besides,SRMVEC delivers effectiveness on benchmark datasets by outperforming some state-of-the-art methods.

Glacial debris flow susceptibility mapping based on combined models in the Parlung Tsangpo Basin,China

Machine learning(ML)-based prediction models for mapping hazard(e.g.,landslide and debris flow)susceptibility have been widely developed in recent research.However,in some specific areas,ML models have limited application because of the uncertainties in identifying negative samples.The Parlung Tsangpo Basin exemplifies a region prone to recurrent glacial debris flows(GDFs)and is characterized by a prominent landform featuring deep gullies.Considering the limitations of the ML model,we developed and compared two combined statistical models(FA-WE and FA-IC)based on factor analysis(FA),weight of evidence(WE),and the information content(IC)method.The final GDF susceptibility maps were generated by selecting 8 most important static factors and considering the influence of precipitation.The results show that the FA-IC model has the best performance.The areas with a very high susceptibility to GDFs are primarily located in the narrow valley section upstream,on both sides of the valley in the middle and downstream of the Parlung Tsangpo River,and in the narrow valley section of each tributary.These areas encompass 86 gullies and are characterized as"narrow and steep".

An Evidence-Based CoCoSo Framework with Double Hierarchy Linguistic Data for Viable Selection of Hydrogen Storage Methods

Hydrogen is the new age alternative energy source to combat energy demand and climate change.Storage of hydrogen is vital for a nation’s growth.Works of literature provide different methods for storing the produced hydrogen,and the rational selection of a viable method is crucial for promoting sustainability and green practices.Typically,hydrogen storage is associated with diverse sustainable and circular economy(SCE)criteria.As a result,the authors consider the situation a multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)problem.Studies infer that previous models for hydrogen storage method(HSM)selection(i)do not consider preferences in the natural language form;(ii)weights of experts are not methodically determined;(iii)hesitation of experts during criteria weight assessment is not effectively explored;and(iv)three-stage solution of a suitable selection of HSM is unexplored.Driven by these gaps,in this paper,authors put forward a new integrated framework,which considers double hierarchy linguistic information for rating,criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation(CRITIC)for expert weight calculation,evidence-based Bayesian method for criteria weight estimation,and combined compromise solution(CoCoSo)for ranking HSMs.The applicability of the developed framework is testified by using a case example of HSM selection in India.Sensitivity and comparative analysis reveal the merits and limitations of the developed framework.

System Reliability Analysis Method Based on T-S FTA and HE-BN

For high-reliability systems in military,aerospace,and railway fields,the challenges of reliability analysis lie in dealing with unclear failure mechanisms,complex fault relationships,lack of fault data,and uncertainty of fault states.To overcome these problems,this paper proposes a reliability analysismethod based on T-S fault tree analysis(T-S FTA)and Hyper-ellipsoidal Bayesian network(HE-BN).The method describes the connection between the various systemfault events by T-S fuzzy gates and translates them into a Bayesian network(BN)model.Combining the advantages of T-S fault tree modeling with the advantages of Bayesian network computation,a reliability modeling method is proposed that can fully reflect the fault characteristics of complex systems.Experts describe the degree of failure of the event in the form of interval numbers.The knowledge and experience of experts are fused with the D-S evidence theory to obtain the initial failure probability interval of the BN root node.Then,the Hyper-ellipsoidal model(HM)constrains the initial failure probability interval and constructs a HE-BN for the system.A reliability analysismethod is proposed to solve the problem of insufficient failure data and uncertainty in the degree of failure.The failure probability of the system is further calculated and the key components that affect the system’s reliability are identified.The proposedmethod accounts for the uncertainty and incompleteness of the failure data in complex multi-state systems and establishes an easily computable reliability model that fully reflects the characteristics of complex faults and accurately identifies system weaknesses.The feasibility and accuracy of the method are further verified by conducting case studies.

Using clinical cases to guide healthcare

Evidence-based practice(EBP)has been the gold standard in healthcare for nearly three centuries and aims to assist physicians in providing the safest and most effective healthcare for their patients.The well-established hierarchy of evidence lists systematic reviews and meta-analyses at the top however these methodologies are not always appropriate or possible and in these instances case-control studies,case series and case reports are utilised to support EBP.Case-control studies allow simultaneous study of multiple risk factors and can be performed rapidly and relatively cheaply.A recent example was during the Coronavirus pandemic where case-control studies were used to assess the efficacy of personal protective equipment for healthcare workers.Case series and case reports also play a role in EBP and are particularly useful to study rare diseases such as inflammatory bowel disease in transgender and gender non-conforming individuals.They are also vital in generating and disseminating early signals and encouraging further research.Whilst these methodologies have weaknesses,particularly with regards to bias and loss of patient confidentiality for rare pathologies,they have an important part to play in EBP and when appropriately utilised can significantly impact upon clinical practice.

Real-World Evidence in Localized Pancreatic: Coping with Uncertainty in Unselected Populations

Background: Localized pancreatic cancer, including resectable (R), borderline resectable (BR) and locally advanced unresectable disease (LAU), is considered in clinical guidelines for diverse treatment options based on clinical trials in selected populations. Hence, exploring with real world evidence (RWE) clinicians’ preferences for treatment options and their results seems pertinent. Methods: In a set of consecutive patients with localized pancreatic cancer assisted in a third level hospital from January 2013 to December 2022, medical records, symptoms, diagnostic process, distribution between subtypes, and treatment plans, with safety and efficacy results, were assessed. Results: A total of 152 patients with localized disease were included (43.4% R, 21.0% BR, 33.6% LAU). The population characteristics exemplified differences between daily practice and clinical trials. Tumor location and symptoms were as expected. Treatment plan was conditioned by PS or comorbidities in 23.0% of patients. In patients with R disease, surgery followed by different adjuvant chemotherapy (CT) regimes was the antineoplastic treatment of choice (64.8%) with efficacy results (OS 37.5 months;95% CI 18.4 - 56.7), in the range of contemporary standards. The common use of neoadjuvant CT for BR disease (94.4%), with surgery in 50% of them, and its results (OS 30.8 months;95% CI 10.5 - 51.2) reflected current controversies of treatment recommendations and evolution in this scenario. Paliative CT with or without radiotherapy was the standard specific treatment in LAU disease (95.1%) with survival results (PFS: 10.8 months;95% CI 8.8 - 12.7. OS: 20.3 months;95% CI 13.5 - 27.2) that justify the distinct character and the specific study of this entity. Conclusion: RWE for localized pancreatic cancer aroused from the analysis of this population confirms the distinct nature of patients assisted in daily practice, as well as mirrors the complexity of decision making in clinical assumptions in which achieving stronger evidence should be paramount.

The Practice and Exploration of Applying EBM to Bilingual Teaching of Medical Genetics at OSBCM

In the process of teaching medical genetics of undergraduate clinical medicine, the practice and exploration of applying EBM to the bilingual teaching of OSBCM medical genetics are carried out. Using CBL and PBL as the carrier can make up for the shortcomings of a single teaching mode, synthesize the advantages of multiple teaching modes. It starts from integrating the basic theoretical knowledge of medicine and clinical practice knowledge, improving students’ bilingual level of medical genetics, cultivating students’ literature retrieval ability, and promoting early clinical, multi-clinical and repeated clinical consciousness for medical students. Therefore, it is more conducive to cultivate students’ ability to learn independently, accurately analyze and solve problems, improve medical students’ clinical thinking ability and scientific research awareness, improve medical students’ ability of international communication, and lay a solid foundation for improving medical students’ future post competence, innovative spirit and lifelong learning ability.

Extension of Paraconsistent Many-Valued Similarity Method to Group Decision

The Paraconsistent Many-Valued Similarity (PMVS) method for multi-attribute decision making will be incomplete as a decision model if it is not extended to the realm of group decision-making. Therefore, in this article, our primary objective is to show how the paraconsistent many-valued similarity method can be used to solve group decision-making problems involving choice making or ranking of a finite set of decision alternatives. Moreover, since weights are very important parameters in multi-attribute decision-making, we have introduced the Borda rule to calculate the weights of experts and that of every criterion under consideration. To demonstrate how the proposed method works, a numerical example on energy sources of an economy from the points of view of a group of experts is investigated. Further, we compare the results of this new approach with that of fuzzy TOPSIS group decision-making method to illustrate the robustness and effectiveness of the former.

An ECR-PCR rule for fusion of evidences defined on a non-exclusive framework of discernment

In the research of uncertain information processing,Dempster-Shafer Theory(DST)provides a framework for dealing with uncertain information,where evidence is defined on a Frame of Discernment(FOD)consisting of mutually exclusive elements.However,the requirement of exclusiveness on FOD sometimes is not satisfied,as shown in Dezert-Smarandache Theory(DSm T),a derivative of DST.In DSm T,the non-exclusiveness is expressed by propositions’intersection and the fusion of evidence is realized through a Proportional Conflict Redistribution(PCR)rule.In order to handle non-exclusive FODs,a new framework called D Number Theory(DNT)has been proposed recently,which quantifies the non-exclusive degree between propositions different from DSm T.In previous studies,an Exclusive Conflict Redistribution(ECR)rule has been designed in DNT to implement the fusion of evidence defined on a non-exclusive FOD,but there are some deficiencies in the ECR rule.In this paper,a new rule called ECR-PCR rule is proposed by combining the ECR and PCR rules to better implement the fusion of evidence defined on a nonexclusive FOD.Within the proposed rule,the definition of conflict utilizes the idea of ECR’s exclusive conflict,and the disposal of conflict is following the idea of PCR’s proportional redistribution.Properties of the ECR-PCR rule are presented.The effectiveness of the proposed new rule is verified through numerical examples and applications,in comparison with other fusion methods.

Deceptive Forensics and the“Generalized”Negation of the Evidences

Deceptive interrogation,undercover investigation,special information,and covert spying may be used as deceptive evidentiary acts.By Article 52 of the Criminal Procedure Law,these methods must undergo the examination of the admissibility of evidence in the trial stage.How interpretate obtaining evidence by deception such judicial postmortem review should include the necessity of investigation and the legality of investigation.The sources of information examined should not only be limited to the defendanfs confession and prosecution files but also include the evidence of personal testimony,intelligence sources,and material evidence sources,especially the appropriate presentation of investigation files.In a case,the necessity,possibility,and possibility of distortion of the means of obtaining evidence determine whether the specific evidence has the legality of evidence.Documents must be able to truthfully reflect the implementation process of specific evidence in the case.

Timing of biliary decompression for acute cholangitis

Severe acute cholangitis(AC)exacerbates the risk of death because of the rapid progression of the disease.The optimal timing of biliary decompression(BD)as a necessary intervention in patients with severe AC is controversial.A recently report titled“Timing of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in the treatment of acute cholangitis of different severity”in the World Journal of Gastroenterology that the optimal time of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography for treating patients with severe AC is≤48 but not≤24 h,providing clinical evidence for selecting the optimal time for implementation of BD.Here,we discuss the controversy over the optimal timing of BD for AC based on guidelines and clinical evidence,and consider that more high-level clinical researches are urgent needed to benefit the management of patients with different severity of AC.

A novel adaptive temporal-spatial information fusion model based on Dempster-Shafer evidence theory

In the field of target recognition based on the temporal-spatial information fusion,evidence the-ory has received extensive attention.To achieve accurate and efficient target recognition by the evi-dence theory,an adaptive temporal-spatial information fusion model is proposed.Firstly,an adaptive evaluation correction mechanism is constructed by the evidence distance and Deng entropy,which realizes the credibility discrimination and adaptive correction of the spatial evidence.Secondly,the credibility decay operator is introduced to obtain the dynamic credibility of temporal evidence.Finally,the sequential combination of temporal-spatial evidences is achieved by Shafer’s discount criterion and Dempster’s combination rule.The simulation results show that the proposed method not only considers the dynamic and sequential characteristics of the temporal-spatial evidences com-bination,but also has a strong conflict information processing capability,which provides a new refer-ence for the field of temporal-spatial information fusion.