Analysis of the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY Exchange Rates Using Multifractal Analysis and Extreme Value Theory

We performed a multifractal analysis using wavelet transform to detect the changes in the fractality of the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY exchange rates, and predicted their extreme values using extreme value theory. After the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY became multifractal, then the USD/JPY became monofractal and stable, and yen depreciation was observed. However, the EUR/JPY became multifractal and unstable, and a strong yen depreciation was observed. The coherence between the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY was strong between 1995 and 2000. After the 2007-2008 financial crisis, the USD/JPY became monofractal and stable, and yen appreciation was observed. However, the EUR/JPY became multifractal and unstable, and strong yen appreciation was observed. Various diagnostic plots for assessing the accuracy of the GP model fitted to USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are shown, and all the diagnostic plots support the fitted GP model. The shape parameters of USD/JPY and EUR/JPY were close to zero, therefore the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY did not have finite upper limits. We predicted the maximum return level for the return periods of 10, 20, 50, 100, 350, and 500 years and their respective 95% confidence intervals (CI). As a result, the 10-year and 100-year return levels for USD/JPY were estimated to be 149.6 and 164.8, with 95% CI [143.2, 156.0] and [149.4, 180.1], respectively.

Advances in Studies of the Middle and Upper Atmosphere and Their Coupling with the Lower Atmosphere

Recent advances in studies of the middle and upper atmosphere and their coupling with the lower atmosphere in China are briefly reviewed. This review emphasizes four aspects: (1) Development of instrumentation for middle and upper atmosphere observation; (2) Analyses and observation of middle and upper atmosphere; (3) Theoretical and modeling studies of planetary wave and gravity wave activities in the middle atmosphere and their relation to lower atmospheric processes; (4) Study on the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere.

Mass exchange between stratosphere and trotosphere over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings

Using NCEP dataset we calculate the exchange of mass across the thermal tropopause by the Wei’s method from 1978 to 1997 over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings. We also calculate the annual variation of aerosol and ozone of 100 hPa level with the monthly SAGE dataset from July 1988 to December 1993. Results indicate that (i) the mass from troposphere to stratosphere is magistral station in summer over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings. The air transport reaches the summit in midsummer with two large value centers, which lie in the north of Bengal Bay and southeastern Tibetan Plateau, respectively. A large value center, which lies over the Tibetan Plateau, is smaller than that aforementioned. In winter, the mass transport is from stratosphere to troposphere, and reaches the minimum in January. (ii) As far as the 19-year mean cross-tropopause mass exchange from June to September is concerned, the net mass transport is 14.84×l018 kg from troposphere to stratosphere. So the area from the