Impact of geopolitical risk,GDP,inflation,interest rate,and trade openness on foreign direct investment:Evidence from five Southeast Asian countries

Historically,geopolitical risk(GPR)has posed significant challenges to international economic,social,and political frameworks.This study investigated how internal GPR in the selected five Southeast Asian countries(Indonesia,South Korea,Malaysia,the Philippines,and Thailand)influences foreign direct investment(FDI)during 1996-2019.The stationarity of the data was assessed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF)unit root test,which shows that the data became stationary after the first difference.The Kao,Pedroni,and Westerlund cointegration tests were employed to examine long-term cointegration among the selected variables(FDI,GPR index(GPRI),gross domestic product(GDP),inflation,interest rate,and trade openness(TOP)).The results indicated that these variables have a long-term cointegration.Consequently,regression analysis using the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)regression,fixed effect,random effect,Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation,and system generalized moment method(GMM)revealed that GPRI and TOP negatively impacted FDI in the selected five Southeast Asian countries.At the same time,GDP,inflation,and interest rate positively influenced FDI in these countries.Because FDI is crucial to shaping a country’s macroeconomic structure,this study recommends that governments and central banks of the selected five Southeast Asian countries should implement policies and strategies to encourage foreign investments.

Exchange Rate Risk, Political Environment and Chinese Outward FDI in Emerging Economies： A Panel Data Analysis

This study attempts to investigate the effect of financial and political risk on Chinese outward FDI activities in 56 emerging economies for a period from 2003 to 2013. Exchange rate is taken as a main indicator of financial risks and political risks are evaluated using ICRG （International Country Risk Guide） index. Generalized method of moments with panel data of Chinese outward FDI （foreign direct investment） in new emerging economies is used to find how Chinese finns intend to invest abroad with respect to exchange rate level, volatility, and expectation. The major findings show that RMB appreciation proved to have a positive effect on Chinese outward FDI in emerging economies. But Chinese OFDI （outward foreign direct investment） seems not to respond to exchange rate volatility. The expectation of RMB＇s appreciation has positive effect on Chinese OFDI in emerging economies. Results also show that more political risk leads to more Chinese OFDI in emerging economies.

Study on models for control of interest rate risks

Analyses different interest rate risks, presents a new model for assessment of interest rates and thereby establishes the framework for control of interest

Organ at Risk Doses during High Dose Rate Intracavitary Brachytherapy for Cervical Cancer: A Dosimetric Study

Background: Treatment of Cervical cancer includes a combination of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) with intracavitary brachytherapy (ICBT). ICBT helps to boost radiation dose to primary disease. Organs like rectum, bladder, sigmoid and small bowel lie close to the cervix region and these organs receive dose from EBRT as well as ICBT and we want to know the dose to these organ at risk (OAR). Materials & Methods: Dosimetric details of 174 ICBT applications done in 58 patients were retrospectively analysed. All patients received EBRT dose of 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions. All patients had ICBT, three sessions with 7 Gy prescribed to point A. Dosimetric data including dose to right and left point A and dose to OARs were recorded from Oncentra Planning System. Results: Mean dose to point A on right side was 6.89 Gy and left side was 6.91 Gy. Mean D2cc dose to rectum, bladder, sigmoid and small bowel was 3.5 Gy, 5.25 Gy, 4.75 Gy and 4.2 Gy respectively. Mean EQD2 dose combining EBRT and ICBT in point A was 78.7 Gy on right side and 79 Gy on left side. Mean EQD2 doses to D2cc of rectum, bladder, sigmoid and small bowel was 62 Gy, 74.4 Gy, 70.5 Gy and 66.5 Gy respectively. Conclusion: From the results of this dosimetric study it is evident that OARs like rectum, sigmoid, bladder & bowel are receiving only acceptable doses of radiation using point A prescribed CT based ICBT planning. Hence with regards to OAR doses, CT based ICBT planning with dose prescribed to point A is a feasible option.

On the Distribution of Duration of First Negative Surplus for a Discrete Time Risk Model with Random Interest Rate

In this paper, we examine further annuity-due risk model presented by Cai （Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, 16（2002）, 309-324）. We consider the computation for the distribution of duration of first negative surplus and the algorithm is shown for calculating probability that ruin occurs and the duration of first negative surplus takes any nonnegative integers values. Numerical illustration for the main result is given.

The Strategies for Market Risk Management in International Shipping

International shipping market is a risky market associated with a variety of risks which shipping companies have to cope with. International shipping has been seriously hit by the financial crisis in 2008. Since then, this industry has experienced market downturn for a long period which was considered to be the longest period of depression in the history. This paper mainly focuses on the key market risks in international shipping including cyclical fluctuation risk, cost risk, freight rate volatility risk, and competition risk. It analyses the source of these market risks, and identifies some strategies to cope with these market risks. In the meantime, Maersk and China Ocean Shipping Group （COSCO）, the world leading international shipping companies, are taken as two cases. Their strategies in market risk management are analyzed, which enable the reader to learn from their success and failure. Based on the international experience in market risk management in shipping industry as well as the real practice of Maersk and COSCO, this paper provides useful guidance for shipping companies to reduce market risks, overcome market downturn, and improve competitiveness.

Managing Interest Rate Risk： An Evaluation of Indian Banks

Interest rate risk represents one of the key forms of financial risk faced by banks. It has given rise to an extensive body of research, .mainly focused on the estimation of sensitivity of bank stock returns to changes in interest rates. However, the analysis of the sources of bank interest rate risk has received much less attention in the literature. It is essential that banks have to monitor, maintain, and manage their assets and liabilities portfolios in a systematic manner taking into account the various risks involved in these areas. Balance sheet risk of a bank can be categorized into two major types of significant risks, which are liquidity risk and interest rate risk （IRR）. IRR is the risk to earning of capital arising from movement of interest rates. The need to manage IRR in Indian banks arises from movement of interest rates. The areas not much considered in the earlier research work are to manage IRR which influences critically the overall profitability of banks. The study was taken with an objective of analyzing the determinants of IRR and examining the strategy to manage such exposures testing the banks long run sustainability. The study had chosen 45 banks and collected secondary data for the financial year 2007 to 2012 to do the analysis of IRR management. The findings of the study were to suggest the ways to minimize the IRR and control its effect on the banks profit. The other findings were to test impact of IRR on the sustainability of the bank.

Exchange Rate Risk of China's Foreign Exchange Reserve Assets--An Empirical Study Based on GARCH-VaR Model

As the core economic variable in the process of the integration of world economy,the change of the exchange rate has an important impact on the import and export,foreign exchange reserves,interest rates,capital flows and other macro and microeconomic factors.This paper first analyzes the status quo of RMB exchange rate risk and the advanced experience of exchange rate management of other countries.Then,the empirical method is used to analyze the characteristics of RMB exchange rate fluctuation based on the day-frequency data of USD/RMB,GBP/RMB,EUR/RMB and JPY/RMB from December 2011 to December 2016.This paper also respectively uses the GARCH,TARCH,EGARCH and PARCH model to fit four representative foreign currencies against RMB,and selects the optimal model to calculate VaR value.Finally,validity of the data is verified through the Chi-square distribution test.The empirical results show that the four sequences are non-normal and first-order monotonic sequences.Besides,there is a significantly high-order ARCH effect,and the GARCH family model has a better fitting effect.JPY/RMB is with lower exchange rate risk,while the fluctuation of EUR/RMB is significantly greater than other currencies.According to the international situation of financial market,the status quo of RMB exchange rate and the conclusion of empirical research,this paper puts forward that the marketization and internationalization of RMB exchange rate should be based on improving the financial system and environment.It is also suggested that the government should properly intervene in the foreign exchange market and make good use of the risk measurement model and commercial banks should further develop the financial derivatives to hedge the foreign exchange risk.

Analysis on Formation Causes of Interest Rate Risks of Commercial Banks in China

Economy globalization inevitably requires financial globalization. The interest rate （IR） is decided by the market, which will bring about IR risks to commercial banks （CBs）. This paper discusses the inevitability of fulfilling market IR in China and what IR risks Chinese CBs have to burden. It also analyzes the formation causes of IR risks from the exterior and the interior aspects.

Modeling,Simulation,and Risk Analysis of Battery Energy Storage Systems in New Energy Grid Integration Scenarios

Energy storage batteries can smooth the volatility of renewable energy sources.The operating conditions during power grid integration of renewable energy can affect the performance and failure risk of battery energy storage system(BESS).However,the current modeling of grid-connected BESS is overly simplistic,typically only considering state of charge(SOC)and power constraints.Detailed lithium(Li)-ion battery cell models are computationally intensive and impractical for real-time applications and may not be suitable for power grid operating conditions.Additionally,there is a lack of real-time batteries risk assessment frameworks.To address these issues,in this study,we establish a thermal-electric-performance(TEP)coupling model based on a multitime scale BESS model,incorporating the electrical and thermal characteristics of Li-ion batteries along with their performance degradation to achieve detailed simulation of grid-connected BESS.Additionally,considering the operating characteristics of energy storage batteries and electrical and thermal abuse factors,we developed a battery pack operational riskmodel,which takes into account SOCand charge-discharge rate(Cr),using amodified failure rate to represent the BESS risk.By integrating detailed simulation of energy storage with predictive failure risk analysis,we obtained a detailed model for BESS risk analysis.This model offers a multi-time scale integrated simulation that spans month-level energy storage simulation times,day-level performance degradation,minutescale failure rate,and second-level BESS characteristics.It offers a critical tool for the study of BESS.Finally,the performance and risk of energy storage batteries under three scenarios—microgrid energy storage,wind power smoothing,and power grid failure response—are simulated,achieving a real-time state-dependent operational risk analysis of the BESS.

Readmission rate and early complications in patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty:A retrospective study

BACKGROUND Total knee arthroplasty(TKA)can improve pain,quality of life,and functional outcomes.Although uncommon,postoperative complications are extremely consequential and thus must be carefully tracked and communicated to patients to assist their decision-making before surgery.Identification of the risk factors for complications and readmissions after TKA,taking into account common causes,temporal trends,and risk variables that can be changed or left unmodified,will benefit this process.AIM To assess readmission rates,early complications and their causes after TKA at 30 days and 90 days post-surgery.METHODS This was a prospective and retrospective study of 633 patients who underwent TKA at our hospital between January 1,2017,and February 28,2022.Of the 633 patients,28 were not contactable,leaving 609 who met the inclusion criteria.Both inpatient and outpatient hospital records were retrieved,and observations were noted in the data collection forms.RESULTS Following TKA,the 30-day and 90-day readmission rates were determined to be 1.1%(n=7)and 1.8%(n=11),respectively.The unplanned visit rate at 30 days following TKA was 2.6%(n=16)and at 90 days was 4.6%(n=28).At 90 days,the unplanned readmission rate was 1.4%(n=9).Reasons for readmissions included medical(27.2%,n=3)and surgical(72.7%,n=8).Unplanned readmissions and visits within 90 days of follow-up did not substantially differ by age group(P=0.922),body mass index(BMI)(P=0.633),unilateral vs bilateral TKA(P=0.696),or patient comorbidity status(30-day P=0.171 and 90-day P=0.813).Reoperation rates after TKA were 0.66%(n=4)at 30 days and 1.15%(n=8)at 90 days.The average length of stay was 6.53 days.CONCLUSION In this study,there was a low readmission rate following TKA.There was no significant correlation between readmission rate and patient factors such as age,BMI,and co-morbidity status.

Risk factors for recurrence of common bile duct stones after surgical treatment and effect of ursodeoxycholic acid intervention

BACKGROUND Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP)is an accurate diagnostic method for choledocholithiasis and treatment option for stone removal.Additionally,ursodeoxycholic acid(UDCA)can dissolve cholesterol stones and prevent their development and reappearance by lowering the cholesterol concen-tration in bile.Despite these treatment options,there are still patients who experience stone recurrence.The clinical data of 100 patients with choledochal stones who were hospitalized at the Yixing People’s Hospital and underwent ERCP for successful stone extraction between June 2020 and December 2022 were retrospectively collected.According to the post-ERCP treatment plan,100 patients were classified into UDCA(n=47)and control(n=53)groups.We aimed to assess the clinical efficacy and rate of relapse in the two patient populations.We then collected information(basic demographic data,clinical characteristics,and serum biochemical indicators)and determined the factors contributing to relapse using logistic regression analysis.Our secondary goal was to determine the effects of UDCA on liver function after ERCP.Compared to the control group,the UDCA group demonstrated a higher clinical effectiveness rate of 92.45%vs 78.72%(P<0.05).No significant differences were observed in liver function indices,including total bilirubin,direct bilirubin,gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase,alanine aminotransferase,alkaline phosphatase,and aspartate aminotransferase,between the two groups before treatment.After treatment,all liver function indices were significantly reduced.Comparing the control vs UDCA groups,the UDCA group exhibited significantly lower levels of all indices(55.39±6.53 vs 77.31±8.52,32.10±4.62 vs 45.39±5.69,142.32±14.21 vs 189.63±16.87,112.52±14.25 vs 149.36±15.36,122.61±16.00 vs 171.33±22.09,96.98±10.44 vs 121.35±11.57,respectively,all P<0.05).The stone recurrence rate was lower in the UDCA group(13.21%)in contrast with the control group(44.68%).Periampullary diverticula(OR:6.00,95%CI:1.69-21.30),maximum stone diameter(OR:1.69,95%CI:1.01-2.85),stone quantity>3(OR:4.23,95%CI:1.17-15.26),and positive bile culture(OR:7.61,95%CI:2.07-27.91)were independent factors that influenced the relapse of common bile duct stones after ERCP(P<0.05).Furthermore,postoperative UDCA was identified as a preventive factor(OR:0.07;95%CI:0.08-0.09).CONCLUSION The intervention effect of UDCA after ERCP for common bile duct stones is adequate,providing new research directions and references for the prevention and treatment of stone recurrence.

Risk factors and strategy for surgical incision infection in department of abdominal surgery

Objective To study the risk factors of surgical wound infection among the patients in department of abodominal surgery. Methods The factors on surgical wound infection were investigated by retrospective study. The diagnosis standard was based on Diagnosis Standard of Hospital Infection published by Ministry of Health.

Analysis of the Incidence and Risk Factors of Postoperative Infection in Patients with Class I Incisions Based on Literature Research

Objective To investigate the risk factors and variations in postoperative infection rates among different Class I surgical incisions,and to identify potential evaluation indicators that can impact the preoperative use of antimicrobial prophylaxis in Class I incisions.Methods Literature review was employed to establish inclusion and exclusion criteria,resulting in the initial examination of 4098 articles.Then,3149 articles were screened out,and after thorough reading of full texts,55 articles were studied carefully.Results and Conclusion Findings revealed that the incidence rate of surgical site infection(SSI)in Class I incisions ranged from 0.52%to 2.34%,with main risk factors including operation duration,underlying diseases,preoperative infections,antibiotic usage,length of hospital stay,and intraoperative bleeding.Risks of SSI varied significantly across different types of Class I incision surgeries.The key influencing factors in neurosurgery included emergency procedures,(nationalnosocomial-infection-surveillance)NNIS score,age,and postoperative drainage tubes.In orthopedics,surgery type was closely associated with infection risk.In addition,emergency surgeries,special surgery types,and low serum albumin levels were considered as risk factors for the increase of postoperative infections,but age showed little correlation.Although prophylactic use of antibiotics in thyroid,breast,and inguinal hernia surgeries was not recommended,research suggested that they should be considered based on varying surgical levels.Patient’s preoperative condition had to be thoroughly assessed to prevent postoperative infections.In clinical practice,combining the high-risk factors of postoperative infection in different Class I incisions,we should consider the evaluation indicators of preventive use of antibiotics before different surgeries,and decide the rational use of antibacterial drugs for Class I incisions.

Cardiac autonomic neuropathy: Risk factors, diagnosis and treatment

Cardiac autonomic neuropathy(CAN)is a serious complication of diabetes mellitus(DM)that is strongly associated with approximately five-fold increased risk of cardiovascular mortality.CAN manifests in a spectrum of things,ranging from resting tachycardia and fixed heart rate(HR)to development of"silent"myocardial infarction.Clinical correlates or risk markers for CAN are age,DM duration,glycemic control,hypertension,and dyslipidemia(DLP),development of other microvascular complications.Established risk factors for CAN are poor glycemic control in type 1 DM and a combination of hypertension,DLP,obesity,and unsatisfactory glycemic control in type 2DM.Symptomatic manifestations of CAN include sinus tachycardia,exercise intolerance,orthostatic hypotension(OH),abnormal blood pressure(BP)regulation,dizziness,presyncope and syncope,intraoperative cardiovascular instability,asymptomatic myocardial ischemia and infarction.Methods of CAN assessment in clinical practice include assessment of symptoms and signs,cardiovascular reflex tests based on HR and BP,short-term electrocardiography(ECG),QT interval prolongation,HR variability(24 h,classic24 h Holter ECG),ambulatory BP monitoring,HR turbulence,baroreflex sensitivity,muscle sympathetic nerve activity,catecholamine assessment and cardiovascular sympathetic tests,heart sympathetic imaging.Although it is common complication,the significance of CAN has not been fully appreciated and there are no unified treatment algorithms for today.Treatment is based on early diagnosis,life style changes,optimization of glycemic control and management of cardiovascular risk factors.Pathogenetic treatment of CAN includes:Balanced diet and physical activity;optimization of glycemic control;treatment of DLP;antioxidants,first of allα-lipoic acid(ALA),aldose reductase inhibitors,acetylL-carnitine;vitamins,first of all fat-soluble vitamin B1;correction of vascular endothelial dysfunction;prevention and treatment of thrombosis;in severe cases-treatment of OH.The promising methods include prescription of prostacyclin analogues,thromboxane A2 blockers and drugs that contribute into strengthening and/or normalization of Na^+,K^+-ATPase(phosphodiesterase inhibitor),ALA,dihomo-γ-linolenic acid(DGLA),ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids(ω-3 PUFAs),and the simultaneous prescription of ALA,ω-3 PUFAs and DGLA,but the future investigations are needed.Development of OH is associated with severe or advanced CAN and prescription of nonpharmacological and pharmacological,in the foreground midodrine and fludrocortisone acetate,treatment methods are necessary.

Factors related to lymph node metastasis and surgical strategy used to treat early gastric carcinoma

AIM:The prognosis of early gastric carcinoma (EGC) is generally excellent after surgery. The presence or absence of lymph node metastasis in EGC is an important prognostic factor. The survival and recurrence rates of node-negative EGC are much better than those of node-positive EGC. This study examined the factors related to lymph node metastasis in EGC to determine the appropriate treatment for EGC.METHODS: We investigated 748 patients with EGC who underwent surgery between January 1985 and December 1999 at the Division of Gastroenterologic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Chonnam National University Hospital. Several clinicopathologic factors were investigated to analyze their relationship to lymph node metastasis: age, sex, tumor location, tumor size, gross type, histologic type, depth of invasion, extent of lymph node dissection, type of operation,and DNA ploidy.RESULTS:Lymph node metastases were found in 75 patients (10.0%). Univariate analysis showed that male sex, tumor size larger than 2.0cm, submucosal invasion of tumor, histologic differentiation, and DNA ploidy pattern were risk factors for regional lymph node metastasis in EGC patients. However, a multivariate analysis showed that three risk factors were associated with lymph node metastasis:large tumor size, undifferentiated histologic type and submucosal invasion. No statistical relationship was found for age, sex, tumor location, gross type, or DNA ploidy in multivariate analysis. The 5-year survival rate was 94.2% for those without lymph node metastasis and 87.3% for those with lymph node metastasis, and the difference was significant (P<0.05).CONCLUSION: In patients with EGC, the survival rate of patients with positive lymph nodes is significantly worse than that of patients with no lymph node metastasis. Therefore,a standard D2 lymphadenectomy should be performed in patients at high risk of lymph node metastasis: large tumor size, undifferentiated histologic type and submucosal invasion.

Risk Analysis and Assessment of Overtopping Concerning Sea Dikes in the Case of Storm Surge

Risk analysis and assessment relating coastal structures has been one of the hot topics in the area of coastal protection recently. In this paper, from three aspects of joint return period of multiple loads, dike failure rate and dike continuous risk prevention respectively, three new risk analysis methods concerning overtopping of sea dikes are developed. It is worth noting that the factors of storm surge which leads to overtopping are also considered in the three methods. In order to verify and estimate the effectiveness and reliability of the newly developed methods, quantified mutual information is adopted. By means of case testing, it can be found that different prior variables might be selected dividedly, according to the requirement of special engineering application or the dominance of loads. Based on the selection of prior variables, the correlating risk analysis method can be successfully applied to practical engineering.

Human Health Risk Assessment Model of Organic Pollution in Groundwater:Shijiazhuang Industrial Zone

In this study, a risk-based management model is developed and applied to an industrial zone. The models proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency and Han Bing have been improved by adding a residual ratio of volatile organic compounds （VOC） after boiling and deleting the related parameters in half-life. Using this improved model, an integrated process was used to assess human health risk level in the study area. Compared with water quality analysis, the results highlight the importance of applying an integrated approach for decision making on risk levels and water protection. The results of this study demonstrated that： （1） Compared with these permissible level standards in China （GB 3838-2002） and National Primary Drinking Water Regulations of the United States, the residents＇ daily life had not been affected by the groundwater in this area （except for relative bad water quality of HB3-4 and HB3-6）; （2） The typical detected organic contaminants of all groundwater samples were chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethene, and the pollution sources were mainly industrial sources by preliminary investigations; （3） As for groundwater, the non-carcinogenic risk values of all samples do not exceed the permissible level of 1.0 and the carcinogenic risk values are relatively lower than the permissible level of 1.00E-06 to 1.00E-04; （4） Drinking water pathway of trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene mainly contribute to increasing the health risk of residents＇ in study areas; （5） In terms of non-carcinogenic risk and carcinogenic risk, the health risk order for drinking water pathway and dermal contact pathway was： drinking water pathway 〉 dermal contact pathway.

Comparing rockfall hazard and risk assessment procedures along roads for different planning purposes

Hazard and risk assessment procedures of different types of rockfall were analyzed to compare their outcomes when they are applied to the same case study.Although numerous methodologies are available in literature,rockfall hazard and risk analyses are often limited to standard estimations,affected by a margin of uncertainty,especially when relevant engineering projects are about to be realized.Based on the design purpose,different types of approaches can be chosen among the qualitative and quantitative ones available in literature,which allow different levels of analysis.One of the main criticisms related to rockfall events is the risk affecting linear structures,such as road or railways,due both to their strategic relevance for trade and communications and to the great entity of the exposed value(traffic units)traveling along them.In this perspective,a comparison between the qualitative method known as Evolving Rockfall Hazard Assessment(EHRA),the semi-quantitative modified Rockfall Hazard Rating System(RHRS)and the quantitative Rockfall Risk Management(RoMa)approach is herein commented according to a practical application to a case study.It is the case of the rockfall threat along slopes crossed by a strategic road connecting two of the most known spots of eastern Sicily(Italy),at the Taormina tourist complex.Data were retrieved from both recent literature and technical surveys on field.Achieved results highlight how the approaches are affected by a different level of detail and uncertainty,arising also by some necessary assumption that must be taken into account,especially when mitigation measures or territory planning have to be designed.Achieved results can be also taken into account for similar studies worldwide,in order to choose the most suitable procedure based on the design purpose.This is indeed crucial in the perspective of the optimization of time and economic resources in the territorial planning practice.

Risk factors associated with missed colorectal flat adenoma: A multicenter retrospective tandem colonoscopy study

AIM: To determine the miss rate for colorectal flat adenomas during colonoscopy and the risk factors.