Central Asian Economies(CAEs)have diverse exchange rate policies.They have recorded higher volatility in the foreign exchange market since inception.High volatility of the transition era has drifted these economies to...Central Asian Economies(CAEs)have diverse exchange rate policies.They have recorded higher volatility in the foreign exchange market since inception.High volatility of the transition era has drifted these economies towards partial dollarization.Monetary authorities in CAEs,(already have a challenge of maintaining monetary policy autonomy)have a gigantic task of price stability and stopping the spread of dollarization.This study is directed towards assessing the drivers and the determinants of foreign exchange market pressure in CAEs.The results,based on panel data analysis and the System GMM model,have provided useful insights about the exchange market pressure determinants particularly USD,Euro,Ruble,and Renminbi.The results show that China and Russia exchange market pressure has a negative effect on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.While the dollar index shows a positive impact on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.Overall,the findings imply that China and Russia currency appreciation results in a trade deficit across CAEs.The policy implication suggests that the floating exchange rate regime(inflation targeting regime)is not in favor of CAEs,and they must use managed-float to reduce their trade deficits.展开更多
The present paper uses the model-dependent and the modeL independent approach to measure the RMB exchange market pressure （EMP） and the central bank＇s intervention using monthly data from January 1999 to June 2008....The present paper uses the model-dependent and the modeL independent approach to measure the RMB exchange market pressure （EMP） and the central bank＇s intervention using monthly data from January 1999 to June 2008. It is determined that the RMB has been under great appreciation pressure over the past decade. However, the pressure has been weakening since 2005. The two approaches provide significantly different results in terms of the estimated RMB EMP indices and the estimated central bank＇s interventions. The differences may lead to different predietions of potential currency crises. According to the estimation of the RMB EMP, and based on the model-independent approach, the paper shows that China has been under threat of an appreciation currency crisis since 2008. Therefore, China should adopt a moreflexible exchange rate regime to prevent a potential crisis.展开更多
In the present paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, the currency basket, the floating band and the foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime ...In the present paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, the currency basket, the floating band and the foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime in 2005. We find the following stylized facts： the value of the RAIB became stable after the reform; the weight of the US dollar remained high in the basket, while other currencies remained statistically significant; and the floating band gradually increased to lO percent during 2005-2008, and then greatly narrowed from the late summer of 2008 under the assumption of a yearly resetting interval. We find that the foreign exchange market pressure increased from 2005 to 2008. A possible reason is that the weight of the US dollar in the basket was slightly lower than the share of the US dollar in total transactions on the Chinese foreign exchange market. Therefore, it is reasonable for China to adopt a dollar peg exchange rate regime.展开更多
文摘Central Asian Economies(CAEs)have diverse exchange rate policies.They have recorded higher volatility in the foreign exchange market since inception.High volatility of the transition era has drifted these economies towards partial dollarization.Monetary authorities in CAEs,(already have a challenge of maintaining monetary policy autonomy)have a gigantic task of price stability and stopping the spread of dollarization.This study is directed towards assessing the drivers and the determinants of foreign exchange market pressure in CAEs.The results,based on panel data analysis and the System GMM model,have provided useful insights about the exchange market pressure determinants particularly USD,Euro,Ruble,and Renminbi.The results show that China and Russia exchange market pressure has a negative effect on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.While the dollar index shows a positive impact on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.Overall,the findings imply that China and Russia currency appreciation results in a trade deficit across CAEs.The policy implication suggests that the floating exchange rate regime(inflation targeting regime)is not in favor of CAEs,and they must use managed-float to reduce their trade deficits.
文摘The present paper uses the model-dependent and the modeL independent approach to measure the RMB exchange market pressure （EMP） and the central bank＇s intervention using monthly data from January 1999 to June 2008. It is determined that the RMB has been under great appreciation pressure over the past decade. However, the pressure has been weakening since 2005. The two approaches provide significantly different results in terms of the estimated RMB EMP indices and the estimated central bank＇s interventions. The differences may lead to different predietions of potential currency crises. According to the estimation of the RMB EMP, and based on the model-independent approach, the paper shows that China has been under threat of an appreciation currency crisis since 2008. Therefore, China should adopt a moreflexible exchange rate regime to prevent a potential crisis.
文摘In the present paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, the currency basket, the floating band and the foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime in 2005. We find the following stylized facts： the value of the RAIB became stable after the reform; the weight of the US dollar remained high in the basket, while other currencies remained statistically significant; and the floating band gradually increased to lO percent during 2005-2008, and then greatly narrowed from the late summer of 2008 under the assumption of a yearly resetting interval. We find that the foreign exchange market pressure increased from 2005 to 2008. A possible reason is that the weight of the US dollar in the basket was slightly lower than the share of the US dollar in total transactions on the Chinese foreign exchange market. Therefore, it is reasonable for China to adopt a dollar peg exchange rate regime.
