<span style="font-family:Verdana;">According to Freud</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">,</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Happiness is defin...<span style="font-family:Verdana;">According to Freud</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">,</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Happiness is defined as the discharge of sexual drive (Orgasm)</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">;</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> obtaining happiness usually costs a lot of energy for women and even more for men, but what happens when that happiness is obtained without energy expenditure, when happiness is obtained with gain of energy or money. Exchange sex is defined as the exchange of sex for energy (in this case money), nevertheless</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">,</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> the classic normal relationships between men and women in society function in general as an exchange of sex for energy (money). So it could be argued that relationships between men and women in our society function on the basis of exchange sex. However, the intrapsychic conflict of individuals complicates and makes it difficult to achieve that happiness. We will also analyze the way to obtain Partial Happiness (get orgasms with people you are not in love with), Total Happiness (get orgasms from the people you are in love with), and a new concept The Supra-Happiness (get orgasms from many attractive people simultaneously</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">;</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> even if you are fall in love with these people or not). That happiness is only temporary, the original dissatisfaction and lack of the human psyche has to be filled and constantly satisfied with that temporary happiness.</span>展开更多
This study analyzes the impact of a newly emerging type of anti-money laundering regulation that obligates cryptocurrency exchanges to report suspicious transactions to financial authorities.We build a theoretical mod...This study analyzes the impact of a newly emerging type of anti-money laundering regulation that obligates cryptocurrency exchanges to report suspicious transactions to financial authorities.We build a theoretical model for the reporting decision structure of a private bank or cryptocurrency exchange and show that an inferior ability to detect money laundering(ML)increases the ratio of reported transactions to unreported transactions.If a representative money launderer makes an optimal portfolio choice,then this ratio increases further.Our findings suggest that cryptocurrency exchanges will exhibit more excessive reporting behavior under this regulation than private banks.We attribute this result to cryptocurrency exchanges’inferior ML detection abilities and their proximity to the underground economy.展开更多
This study investigates the impact of money supply on economic growth rate,inflation rate,exchange rate and real interest rate.We used a panel of 217 countries from 1960 to 2020 and four different models to address th...This study investigates the impact of money supply on economic growth rate,inflation rate,exchange rate and real interest rate.We used a panel of 217 countries from 1960 to 2020 and four different models to address these questions.The empirical results support the quantity theory of money.In addition,the study found evidence for a negative relationship between real interest rate and inflation and between money supply and real interest rate.Finally,our results show that lagged money growth rate is positively correlated with GDP growth rate but money growth rate is negatively correlated with GDP growth rate.展开更多
This paper examines the relationship between stock market(KSE-100), money market(M2 and 180 days T-bill rate), and foreign exchange market(ER: PKR/USD) in Pakistan by using monthly data covering the period from 2000:M...This paper examines the relationship between stock market(KSE-100), money market(M2 and 180 days T-bill rate), and foreign exchange market(ER: PKR/USD) in Pakistan by using monthly data covering the period from 2000:M1 to 2015:M12. The study investigates long-run equilibrium relationship between these three financial markets by employing Johansen and Juselius[1]cointegration tests. Long-run and short-run causality relationship between stock market and other macroeconomic variables is also established by employing vector error correction model(VECM) and pairwise granger causality tests. The results of multivariate cointegration test(trace test) indicate a one cointegrating vector, and the significant normalized cointegrating coefficients are evident of long run equilibrium relationship between all the selected variables. Negative and significant ECT(-1) for all variables during full sample period witness the presence of long-run causality connection among variables, while during the military regime and democratic regime, significant difference of long-run causal connections are identified across the regimes. Moreover, the results of granger causality test also indicate that there are significant variations in the causality relationship among variables across the regimes. Therefore, it is essential for forecasting, planning and policy making to consider the importance of political governance system while analyzing the historical cointegration among financial market and make the necessary adjustments accordingly.展开更多
Background:This paper examines the role of monetary and fiscal factors in interest rate variations in Sri Lanka under its deregulated regime of interest rates.In addition the paper also examines the role of monetary f...Background:This paper examines the role of monetary and fiscal factors in interest rate variations in Sri Lanka under its deregulated regime of interest rates.In addition the paper also examines the role of monetary factors in the variation of interest rates,using a quarterly dataset for the post-global recession period,when the exchange rate is determined by market forces.Results:Empirical analysis uses a dataset of nominal interest rates,money growth,income growth,changes in nominal exchange rate,and budget deficit.From the methodological point of view the paper involves vector autoregression model and Wald tests of Granger causality,followed by impulse response analysis while stationarity and the order of integration of the selected variables are confirmed involving the augmented Dickey-Fuller and the Phillips-Perron unit-root tests.Results:The paper confirms that both monetary and fiscal factors have significant effects on the variations of interest rates.Money growth triggers an increase in interest rates,which supports the Fisher equation view,while income growth has a negative impact.Budget deficit causes a rise in interest rates,but the role of the exchange rate is found to be almost insignificant,probably due to including exchange rate series that cover both the pegged and market-based regimes of exchange rates.The second part of the analysis,using a quarterly dataset for the post-global recession period,further establishes the positive impact of M2 money growth and income growth on interest rates.In this case,exchange rate depreciation causes an increase in interest rates.Conclusions:The significant role of monetary and fiscal factors in interest rate variations implies it would be possible to manage interest rates through a judiciary management of monetary and fiscal policies.展开更多
In January FDI in China increased by 109.78% year-on-year to US＄11.2 billion.Such a rocketing growth rate has been appearing since November 2007.What is the real sign? Some people are confident that as an emerg-ing e...In January FDI in China increased by 109.78% year-on-year to US＄11.2 billion.Such a rocketing growth rate has been appearing since November 2007.What is the real sign? Some people are confident that as an emerg-ing economy,China is interesting more investors.Other economists think FDI is becoming a legal channel for hot money to flow into China because the money holder expects the exchanging rate of RMB with respect展开更多
The high and rising house prices in China are not adequately accounted for the traditional explanations emphasizing demand-driven or cost-push factors. Reeent published studies claim that gender imbalance increases co...The high and rising house prices in China are not adequately accounted for the traditional explanations emphasizing demand-driven or cost-push factors. Reeent published studies claim that gender imbalance increases competition among men in the marriage market, which has pushed Chinese, especially parents with a son, to buy houses as a signal of relative status in the marriage market,＂ this marriage competition then causes high demand for houses and eventually leads to rising house prices in China. Empirical results in this paper, however, provide little support for this hypothesis and we find that a rise in the sex ratios for most age cohorts accounts for very small percentage variations in house price movements in China during 1998-2009. Further investigation suggests that excess demand driven by high monetary growth was a significant cause of the rising house prices in China during 1998-2009. Therefore, the impact of gender imbalance on house prices shouM not be exaggerated and monetary dynamics remains an important leading indicator for house price movements in China.展开更多
Because the U.S. Federal Reserve＇s monetary policy is at the center of the world dollar standard, it has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except during international crises, the Fed focuse...Because the U.S. Federal Reserve＇s monetary policy is at the center of the world dollar standard, it has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except during international crises, the Fed focuses on domestic American economic indicators and generally ignores collateral damage from its monetary policies on the rest of the world. Currently, ultra-low interest rates on short-term dollar assets ignite waves of hot money into Emerging Markets （EM） with convertible currencies. When each EM central bank intervenes to prevent its individual currency from appreciating, collectively they lose monetary control, inflate, and cause an upsurge in primary commodity prices internationally. These bubbles burst when some accident at the center, such as a banking crisis, causes a return of the hot money to the United States （and to other industrial countries） as commercial banks stop lending to foreign exchange speculators. World prices of primary products then collapse. African countries with exchange controls and less convertible currencies are not so attractive to currency speculators. Thus, they are less vulnerable than EM to the ebb and flow of hot money. However, Afi-ican countries are more vulnerable to cycles in primary commodity prices because food is a greater proportion of their consumption, and--being less industrialized--they are of their commodity exports. Supply-side more vulnerable to fluctuations in prices shocks, such as a crop failure anywhere in the world, can affect the price of an individual commodity. But joint fluctuations in the prices of all primary products--minerals, energy, cereals, and so on--reflect monetary conditions in the world economy as determined by the ebb and flow of hot money from the United States, and increasingly from other industrial countries with near-zero interest rates.展开更多
In 2015 and 2016,China’s capital and foreign exchange(Forex)markets experienced several fluctuations.The plunge in stocks and Forex caused such panic that the upper and middle class had an anxious impulse to transfer...In 2015 and 2016,China’s capital and foreign exchange(Forex)markets experienced several fluctuations.The plunge in stocks and Forex caused such panic that the upper and middle class had an anxious impulse to transfer money out of China.This resulted in China’s foreign exchange reserve dropping from its peak of more than USD4 trillion to USD3 trillion.More than 90%of economic and financial experts reportedly asserted that the exchange rate of RMB against the USD would fall to 7:1 in 2016.展开更多
The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the center of the world dollar standard has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except in moments of international crises, the Fed focuses inw...The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the center of the world dollar standard has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except in moments of international crises, the Fed focuses inward on domestic American economic indicators and generally ignores collateral damage from its monetary policies in the rest of the world. But this makes the U.S. economy less stable. Currently, ultra-low interest rates on dollar assets ignite waves of hot money into emerging markets by carry traders that generate bubbles in international primary commodity prices and other assets. These bubbles burst when some accident at the center, such as a banking crisis, causes a reflux of the hot money. Ironically, these near-zero interest rates hold back investment in the American economy itself.展开更多
文摘<span style="font-family:Verdana;">According to Freud</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">,</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Happiness is defined as the discharge of sexual drive (Orgasm)</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">;</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> obtaining happiness usually costs a lot of energy for women and even more for men, but what happens when that happiness is obtained without energy expenditure, when happiness is obtained with gain of energy or money. Exchange sex is defined as the exchange of sex for energy (in this case money), nevertheless</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">,</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> the classic normal relationships between men and women in society function in general as an exchange of sex for energy (money). So it could be argued that relationships between men and women in our society function on the basis of exchange sex. However, the intrapsychic conflict of individuals complicates and makes it difficult to achieve that happiness. We will also analyze the way to obtain Partial Happiness (get orgasms with people you are not in love with), Total Happiness (get orgasms from the people you are in love with), and a new concept The Supra-Happiness (get orgasms from many attractive people simultaneously</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">;</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> even if you are fall in love with these people or not). That happiness is only temporary, the original dissatisfaction and lack of the human psyche has to be filled and constantly satisfied with that temporary happiness.</span>
文摘This study analyzes the impact of a newly emerging type of anti-money laundering regulation that obligates cryptocurrency exchanges to report suspicious transactions to financial authorities.We build a theoretical model for the reporting decision structure of a private bank or cryptocurrency exchange and show that an inferior ability to detect money laundering(ML)increases the ratio of reported transactions to unreported transactions.If a representative money launderer makes an optimal portfolio choice,then this ratio increases further.Our findings suggest that cryptocurrency exchanges will exhibit more excessive reporting behavior under this regulation than private banks.We attribute this result to cryptocurrency exchanges’inferior ML detection abilities and their proximity to the underground economy.
文摘This study investigates the impact of money supply on economic growth rate,inflation rate,exchange rate and real interest rate.We used a panel of 217 countries from 1960 to 2020 and four different models to address these questions.The empirical results support the quantity theory of money.In addition,the study found evidence for a negative relationship between real interest rate and inflation and between money supply and real interest rate.Finally,our results show that lagged money growth rate is positively correlated with GDP growth rate but money growth rate is negatively correlated with GDP growth rate.
基金Supported by TWAS under the CAS-TWAS President Fellowship ProgramSukkur IBA
文摘This paper examines the relationship between stock market(KSE-100), money market(M2 and 180 days T-bill rate), and foreign exchange market(ER: PKR/USD) in Pakistan by using monthly data covering the period from 2000:M1 to 2015:M12. The study investigates long-run equilibrium relationship between these three financial markets by employing Johansen and Juselius[1]cointegration tests. Long-run and short-run causality relationship between stock market and other macroeconomic variables is also established by employing vector error correction model(VECM) and pairwise granger causality tests. The results of multivariate cointegration test(trace test) indicate a one cointegrating vector, and the significant normalized cointegrating coefficients are evident of long run equilibrium relationship between all the selected variables. Negative and significant ECT(-1) for all variables during full sample period witness the presence of long-run causality connection among variables, while during the military regime and democratic regime, significant difference of long-run causal connections are identified across the regimes. Moreover, the results of granger causality test also indicate that there are significant variations in the causality relationship among variables across the regimes. Therefore, it is essential for forecasting, planning and policy making to consider the importance of political governance system while analyzing the historical cointegration among financial market and make the necessary adjustments accordingly.
文摘Background:This paper examines the role of monetary and fiscal factors in interest rate variations in Sri Lanka under its deregulated regime of interest rates.In addition the paper also examines the role of monetary factors in the variation of interest rates,using a quarterly dataset for the post-global recession period,when the exchange rate is determined by market forces.Results:Empirical analysis uses a dataset of nominal interest rates,money growth,income growth,changes in nominal exchange rate,and budget deficit.From the methodological point of view the paper involves vector autoregression model and Wald tests of Granger causality,followed by impulse response analysis while stationarity and the order of integration of the selected variables are confirmed involving the augmented Dickey-Fuller and the Phillips-Perron unit-root tests.Results:The paper confirms that both monetary and fiscal factors have significant effects on the variations of interest rates.Money growth triggers an increase in interest rates,which supports the Fisher equation view,while income growth has a negative impact.Budget deficit causes a rise in interest rates,but the role of the exchange rate is found to be almost insignificant,probably due to including exchange rate series that cover both the pegged and market-based regimes of exchange rates.The second part of the analysis,using a quarterly dataset for the post-global recession period,further establishes the positive impact of M2 money growth and income growth on interest rates.In this case,exchange rate depreciation causes an increase in interest rates.Conclusions:The significant role of monetary and fiscal factors in interest rate variations implies it would be possible to manage interest rates through a judiciary management of monetary and fiscal policies.
文摘In January FDI in China increased by 109.78% year-on-year to US＄11.2 billion.Such a rocketing growth rate has been appearing since November 2007.What is the real sign? Some people are confident that as an emerg-ing economy,China is interesting more investors.Other economists think FDI is becoming a legal channel for hot money to flow into China because the money holder expects the exchanging rate of RMB with respect
基金supported by the Ministry of Education of China(No.12JJD790039)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universitiesthe Research Funds of Renmin University of China
文摘The high and rising house prices in China are not adequately accounted for the traditional explanations emphasizing demand-driven or cost-push factors. Reeent published studies claim that gender imbalance increases competition among men in the marriage market, which has pushed Chinese, especially parents with a son, to buy houses as a signal of relative status in the marriage market,＂ this marriage competition then causes high demand for houses and eventually leads to rising house prices in China. Empirical results in this paper, however, provide little support for this hypothesis and we find that a rise in the sex ratios for most age cohorts accounts for very small percentage variations in house price movements in China during 1998-2009. Further investigation suggests that excess demand driven by high monetary growth was a significant cause of the rising house prices in China during 1998-2009. Therefore, the impact of gender imbalance on house prices shouM not be exaggerated and monetary dynamics remains an important leading indicator for house price movements in China.
文摘Because the U.S. Federal Reserve＇s monetary policy is at the center of the world dollar standard, it has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except during international crises, the Fed focuses on domestic American economic indicators and generally ignores collateral damage from its monetary policies on the rest of the world. Currently, ultra-low interest rates on short-term dollar assets ignite waves of hot money into Emerging Markets （EM） with convertible currencies. When each EM central bank intervenes to prevent its individual currency from appreciating, collectively they lose monetary control, inflate, and cause an upsurge in primary commodity prices internationally. These bubbles burst when some accident at the center, such as a banking crisis, causes a return of the hot money to the United States （and to other industrial countries） as commercial banks stop lending to foreign exchange speculators. World prices of primary products then collapse. African countries with exchange controls and less convertible currencies are not so attractive to currency speculators. Thus, they are less vulnerable than EM to the ebb and flow of hot money. However, Afi-ican countries are more vulnerable to cycles in primary commodity prices because food is a greater proportion of their consumption, and--being less industrialized--they are of their commodity exports. Supply-side more vulnerable to fluctuations in prices shocks, such as a crop failure anywhere in the world, can affect the price of an individual commodity. But joint fluctuations in the prices of all primary products--minerals, energy, cereals, and so on--reflect monetary conditions in the world economy as determined by the ebb and flow of hot money from the United States, and increasingly from other industrial countries with near-zero interest rates.
文摘In 2015 and 2016,China’s capital and foreign exchange(Forex)markets experienced several fluctuations.The plunge in stocks and Forex caused such panic that the upper and middle class had an anxious impulse to transfer money out of China.This resulted in China’s foreign exchange reserve dropping from its peak of more than USD4 trillion to USD3 trillion.More than 90%of economic and financial experts reportedly asserted that the exchange rate of RMB against the USD would fall to 7:1 in 2016.
文摘The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the center of the world dollar standard has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except in moments of international crises, the Fed focuses inward on domestic American economic indicators and generally ignores collateral damage from its monetary policies in the rest of the world. But this makes the U.S. economy less stable. Currently, ultra-low interest rates on dollar assets ignite waves of hot money into emerging markets by carry traders that generate bubbles in international primary commodity prices and other assets. These bubbles burst when some accident at the center, such as a banking crisis, causes a reflux of the hot money. Ironically, these near-zero interest rates hold back investment in the American economy itself.
