Is pass‑through of the exchange rate to restaurant and hotel prices asymmetric in the US?Role of monetary policy uncertainty

This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.

RMB Exchange Rate,Overseas Education,and High-Quality Economic Growth

China is transitioning its industrial structure from labor-and resource-intensive industries that previously contributed significantly to the country’s GDP growth to technology-intensive industries emphasizing a highly-skilled workforce and sustainability to achieve high-quality economic growth.This paper examines the impact of the RMB exchange rate on high-quality economic growth through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis and discusses the variable of overseas education to explore the mechanism of how the RMB exchange rate and overseas education jointly impact high-quality economic growth.The research sample includes the National Bureau of Statistics data on education from 1995 to 2015,the Bank for International Settlements(BIS)data on the RMB exchange rate,and the added value of China’s high-quality economic growth estimated based on the national economy data.An empirical analysis of theoretical expectations was conducted,finding that RMB appreciation could make a positive contribution to China’s high-quality economic growth;RMB exchange rate fluctuations would impact the relative cost of overseas education and overseas returnees could have a positive impact on domestic resource utilization efficiency and domestic capacity to make sci-tech innovations,thereby injecting vitality to high-quality economic growth.This study focuses on both the RMB exchange rate and the population studying abroad,providing additional observation dimensions to existing research.

Trend Analysis of Exchange Rate of the Ghana Cedi against the US Dollar Using Time Series

Exchange rate volatility or its stability is a key determinant of the state of a country’s economy. The Ghana cedi’s performance against the US dollar in recent times has been the worse in the past decade. This has resulted in high inflation, high cost of living and high cost of production in Ghana. Despite the recent economic recovery growth, the cedi continues to strife in high rate of exchange against the dollar. This study examines and models a trend, and makes predictions of future rates of the cedis against the US dollar. Methodology: The study used a 13-year data of exchange rates of Ghana cedi and the US dollar spanning from 2010 to mid-2023 from the Bank of Ghana’s economic data on exchange rates, Ghana Stock Exchange and the World Bank. The ARIMA and SARIMA models were used to model the trends and for forecasting, taking into the consideration the asymmetric and seasonal effect of the data. Results: The outputs show that, the Ghana cedi will continue to rise but steadily against the US dollar for the remaining months of 2023 except in December, and continue to decline afterwards through into 2024. Conclusion: The cedi continues to weaken in value and the strength of its purchasing power. A weaker currency depicts a “junk” economy which affects its foreign investment. As the US dollar continues to rise, the Government and policy makers must implement effective policies to stabilize its rise against the cedi. Export of commodities must increase in addition to import restrictions to balance trade deficit and to strengthen the Ghana Cedi.

An exchange rate determination model for central banks＇interventions in financial markets

We establish an exchange rate determination model for central banks' interventions in financial markets. The model shows that central banks can adjust exchange rate by several policy instruments and that different instruments may have different effects on exchange rate determination. It specifies potential policy instruments for central banks as well as their policy effects. Based on these effects, feasible matches of policy instruments in contingent intervention are put forth.

Analysis on the exchange rate of Australian dollar

Australian dollar （AUD） maintains a fluctuant increase for long period, but in recent two years, this currency represents an anomalistic change. In order to forecast the trend of AUD, this essay examines the exchange rate of AUD in then years from March of 2000 to March of 2010, and argues the factors which create these trend changes. By means of secondary research and graphs analysis, the relevant evidence and argument was selected into four terms below： relative raw materials prices changes, relative domestic price level and Import-Expert changes, relative interest rate changes, and other factors. The examples based on the theoretics, graphs, statistics and experts＇ opinions.

The Most Sensitive Exchange Rates for Tin Based on the Major Commodity Production Countries

This paper examines the most sensitive exchange rates for tin price based on China and Indonesia that these are the world’s first and second largest tin producers.The export data from these countries have shared over 75 per cent of global tin supply that relates significantly with the Indonesian exchange rate based on the Canonical Correlation Analysis(CCA).Furthermore,the future tin prices are forecasted using the weighted least squares(WLS)model.This model is selected since it takes into account the non-normally distribution and heteroscedasticity of the original data.Overall,this result suggests that the Indonesian exchange rate is superior in predicting the future tin price rather than the Chinese exchange rate while China is the largest tin producer in the world.This is caused that the Chinese exchange rate cannot appreciate to other currency baskets.

Influential factors on the exchange rate of dissolved inorganic nutrients at the sediment-water interface in Jiaozhou Bay, China

Incubation experiments are carried out to study the exchange rates of dissolved inorganic nutrients including silicate, phosphate, ammonium, nitrite, and nitrate (vSiO3-Si, vPO4-P, vNH4-N, vNO2-N and vNO3-N) at the sediment-water interface in the Jiaozhou Bay. Major factors influencing the exchange rates are discussed in detail, which include the dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations in porewater (Cpw), water and clay contents, and grain size of the sediments (CH2O, Cclay and GSsed). The results may provide insight into the dynamics of nutrient transport and the environmental capacity of nutrients in Jiaozhou Bay, and should be beneficial to solving the problems caused by excessive nutrient input this area.

Exchange Rate Risk, Political Environment and Chinese Outward FDI in Emerging Economies： A Panel Data Analysis

This study attempts to investigate the effect of financial and political risk on Chinese outward FDI activities in 56 emerging economies for a period from 2003 to 2013. Exchange rate is taken as a main indicator of financial risks and political risks are evaluated using ICRG （International Country Risk Guide） index. Generalized method of moments with panel data of Chinese outward FDI （foreign direct investment） in new emerging economies is used to find how Chinese finns intend to invest abroad with respect to exchange rate level, volatility, and expectation. The major findings show that RMB appreciation proved to have a positive effect on Chinese outward FDI in emerging economies. But Chinese OFDI （outward foreign direct investment） seems not to respond to exchange rate volatility. The expectation of RMB＇s appreciation has positive effect on Chinese OFDI in emerging economies. Results also show that more political risk leads to more Chinese OFDI in emerging economies.

Using fuzzy neural networks for RMB/USD real exchange rate forecasting

In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential, which guarantees not only the direction of weight correction, but also the needed precision for the BP algorithm. In applying genetic algorithms for optimal performance, this approach, in the forecasting of the RMB/USD real exchange rate from 1994 to 2000, obviously outperforms typical BP Neural Networks and exhibits a higher capacity in regard to nonlinear, time-variablility, and illegibility of the exchange rate.

Modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility in Bangladesh using GARCH models:a comparison based on normal and Student's t-error distribution

Background:Modeling exchange rate volatility has remained crucially important because of its diverse implications.This study aimed to address the issue of error distribution assumption in modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility between the Bangladeshi taka(BDT)and the US dollar($).Methods:Using daily exchange rates for 7 years(January 1,2008,to April 30,2015),this study attempted to model dynamics following generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic(GARCH),asymmetric power ARCH(APARCH),exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic(EGARCH),threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic(TGARCH),and integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic(IGARCH)processes under both normal and Student’s t-distribution assumptions for errors.Results and Conclusions:It was found that,in contrast with the normal distribution,the application of Student’s t-distribution for errors helped the models satisfy the diagnostic tests and show improved forecasting accuracy.With such error distribution for out-of-sample volatility forecasting,AR(2)–GARCH(1,1)is considered the best.

Machine Learning-based USD/PKR Exchange Rate Forecasting Using Sentiment Analysis of Twitter Data

This study proposes an approach based on machine learning to forecast currency exchange rates by applying sentiment analysis to messages on Twitter(called tweets).A dataset of the exchange rates between the United States Dollar(USD)and the Pakistani Rupee(PKR)was formed by collecting information from a forex website as well as a collection of tweets from the business community in Pakistan containing finance-related words.The dataset was collected in raw form,and was subjected to natural language processing by way of data preprocessing.Response variable labeling was then applied to the standardized dataset,where the response variables were divided into two classes:“1”indicated an increase in the exchange rate and“−1”indicated a decrease in it.To better represent the dataset,we used linear discriminant analysis and principal component analysis to visualize the data in three-dimensional vector space.Clusters that were obtained using a sampling approach were then used for data optimization.Five machine learning classifiers—the simple logistic classifier,the random forest,bagging,naïve Bayes,and the support vector machine—were applied to the optimized dataset.The results show that the simple logistic classifier yielded the highest accuracy of 82.14%for the USD and the PKR exchange rates forecasting.

Capital Account Openness,Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth:International Experiences and Implications

Based on the Barro classical growth model, this paper introduces capital account openness and exchange rate volatility to conduct an empirical analysis using the panel data of 182 countries(regions) during 1970-2013 to examine the combined effects of capital account openness and exchange rate risks on economic growth. Our findings are as follows:(1) Without considering exchange rate volatility, capital account openness is subject to a threshold effect, i.e. capital account openness significantly promotes the economic growth of middle-and high-income countries but exerts the opposite effect on low-income countries; and(2) after exchange rate volatility is taken into account, the growth effect of capital account openness is reduced and the greater the exchange rate volatility is, the smaller the marginal effect of capital account openness will be; sample-specific results also proved the existence of the threshold effect. This paper offers the following implications:(1) The effect of capital account openness can be better examined based on risk factors;(2) moderately controlling exchange rate volatility is conducive to acquiring greater benefits from capital account openness; and(3) the threshold effect of capital account openness cannot be overlooked.

The Influence of Bond Market Opening in Trade Field on RMB Internationalization Foreign Exchange Rate

In order to verify that the open bond market is the most direct choice to promote the internationalization of RMB,the empirical analysis method is used to analyze the impact of bond liberalization on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.Firstly,the data source processing method of empirical analysis is introduced.Then the dynamic panel data regression model and panel threshold model are built to verify the influence factors of RMB internationalization foreign exchange rate and the influence of debt market opening on RMB foreign exchange rate,respectively.The results show that the opening of the creditor's rights market has a significant positive promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate,and the development of the domestic creditor's rights market has a significant promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.The study has a certain role in promoting the status of China's currency in the international community.

Global Value Chain Participation and Firms'Responses to Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Greater participation in global value chains(GVCs)has highlighted the impact of exchange rate shocks on international trade.This paper examines how such participation influences firms'responses to exchange rate movements,focusing on the relationship between firms'pricing and value-added in exports.This study,using detailed Chinese firm-level data,demonstrates that firms with a high degree of GVC participation reacted to currency appreciation by lowering their export prices more substantially and reducing their export volumes less.This is mainly attributable to the"cost-hedging effect"within the marginal cost channel and the"pricing inhibition effect"within the markup channel.By categorizing export firms by trade models and product types,this study further demonstrates that processing trade firms at the low end of the value chain and those with low product differentiation were more inclined to absorb exchange rate shocks.This study adds to the existing theoretical framework and provides strong evidence for China in deepening GVC integration and supporting the development of high-quality export firms.

Numerical Computing for a Class of Free Multipoint Boundary Value Problem of O.D.E in the Intervention of Exchange Rate

In this paper by means of generalized shooting method and homotopy technique a numerical method was given for computing free multipoint boundary value problem proposed in the intervention of exchange rate by Cadenillas and Femaado Zapatero. A numerical example was given for illustrating the validity of this method.

Testing for Nonlinearity in Five Emerging Markets' Exchange Rates

Unlike the Brock,Dechert,and Scheinkman(BDS)test,the Surrogate Data method is not only able to provide a nonlinearity test for exchange rates,but also distinguish whether the nonlinear features come from the economic system itself.Our analysis gives some evidence on the presence of nonlinear dependency of five emerging markets' exchange rates by using BDS test.Furthermore,we present evidence in existence of intrinsic and deterministic nonlinearity in the five exchange rates using the Surrogate Data method,comparing the original data and surrogate data and rejecting the null hypothesis in confidence coefficient 95%.The results provide the basis for the analyses of the chaotic properties of exchange rate time series and their future nonlinear forecasting.

Recent Experience of the Effects of Intervention on Exchange Rates

Recently, foreign exchange rates have been highly volatile all over the world. This article reports on an empirical examination of the effectiveness of foreign exchange market intervention in Tokyo foreign exchange market. In Japan, intervention in the foreign exchange market has occurred frequently and largely. In 2010, exchange rates fluctuated greatly, and the Japanese yen appreciated greatly against other foreign currencies. The Bank of Japan （BOJ） conducted an intervention in the foreign exchange market and bought massive USD to weaken the yen. They are expected to prevent too much appreciation of the yen, to promote export, and expansion of the economy. Recent foreign exchange market intervention in Tokyo has been effective in preventing the Japanese yen from appreciating against other currencies. Also, unsterilization has had a positive effect on depreciation of the yen. Moreover, news announcements by the Bank of Japan （BOJ） has led to depreciation of the yen. Effective announcements would increase the effects on markets. Sterilization in intervention and market communication are both taken into account in this article. The BOJ＇s news announcements seem to convey to markets adequately and communication between the bank and markets functions well. Moreover, the past exchange rate （i.e., the signaling effect） also is important to the movement of exchange rates. On the other hand, portfolio channel is not found

Theory of Capital,Investment and Exchange Rate:A New Developmentalist Equation

The article deals with the relationship between the decision to invest and the exchange rate. The literature relates investment at interest rate. An increase in the interest rate would reduce the investment expenditure. Jorgenson’s equation uses the flexible accelerator model, taxation, and the cost of capital to explain and predict the amount of investment in machinery and equipment. The relationship between the exchange rate and the investment appears in the literature as a direct relation. An appreciated exchange rate allows the importation of cheaper machinery and equipment and increases productive investments. This paper proposes a modified equation in which the appreciated exchange rate inhibits productive investments by reducing the expectation of profit, either because the domestic market becomes more competitive or because exports decrease. It still incorporates in the model of Jorgenson the idea that the unit cost of labor is the relevant variable to explain the choice of investing, assuming a function of production of fixed coefficients.

TRANSFORM THE MECHANISM OF RENMINBI’S EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM IN CONFORMITY WITH THE DEMAND OF MARKET ECONOMY——The academic report delivered at the Annual Meeting of NNCIFS on October 1993

Exchange rate functions under systems of centrallyplanned economy and market economy are quite different,and the mechanism to determine such exchange rate is alsodifferent. To adopt a socialist market economic system inChina, the exchange rate mechanism of Renminbi must bethoroughly transformed. To accomplish this goal, I believethere are three problems that must be solved: first,

Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices?

With the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range,the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase.This study uses both auto regressive distributed lag(ARDL)and nonlinear ARDL(NARDL)approaches to explore the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices on China’s stock prices.Our findings show that without considering the critical variable of global commodity prices,there is no cointegration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China’s stock prices,and the coefficient of the RMB exchange rate is not statistically significant.However,when we introduce global commodity prices into the NARDL model,the result shows that the RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on China’s stock prices,that there indeed exists a long-run cointegration relationship among the RMB exchange rate,global commodity prices,and stock prices in the NARDL model,and that global commodity price changes have an asymmetric effect on China’s stock prices in the long run.Specifically,China’s stock prices are more sensitive to increases than decreases in global commodity prices.Thus,increases in global commodity prices cause China’s stock prices to decline sharply.In contrast,the same magnitude of decline in global commodity prices induces a smaller increase in China’s stock prices.