Causes of the exchange rate with the U.S. trade deficit

With debate that the U.S. trade deficit is due to overestimate exchange rate of RMB, the paper pointed out that exchange rate is not the main factor for the formation of balance of payments on trade. U.S. trade deficit is largely due to the current international monetary system, international division of labor and the trade structure determined by it, low savings rates and other factors.

Influential factors on the exchange rate of dissolved inorganic nutrients at the sediment-water interface in Jiaozhou Bay, China

Incubation experiments are carried out to study the exchange rates of dissolved inorganic nutrients including silicate, phosphate, ammonium, nitrite, and nitrate (vSiO3-Si, vPO4-P, vNH4-N, vNO2-N and vNO3-N) at the sediment-water interface in the Jiaozhou Bay. Major factors influencing the exchange rates are discussed in detail, which include the dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations in porewater (Cpw), water and clay contents, and grain size of the sediments (CH2O, Cclay and GSsed). The results may provide insight into the dynamics of nutrient transport and the environmental capacity of nutrients in Jiaozhou Bay, and should be beneficial to solving the problems caused by excessive nutrient input this area.

Machine Learning-based USD/PKR Exchange Rate Forecasting Using Sentiment Analysis of Twitter Data

This study proposes an approach based on machine learning to forecast currency exchange rates by applying sentiment analysis to messages on Twitter(called tweets).A dataset of the exchange rates between the United States Dollar(USD)and the Pakistani Rupee(PKR)was formed by collecting information from a forex website as well as a collection of tweets from the business community in Pakistan containing finance-related words.The dataset was collected in raw form,and was subjected to natural language processing by way of data preprocessing.Response variable labeling was then applied to the standardized dataset,where the response variables were divided into two classes:“1”indicated an increase in the exchange rate and“−1”indicated a decrease in it.To better represent the dataset,we used linear discriminant analysis and principal component analysis to visualize the data in three-dimensional vector space.Clusters that were obtained using a sampling approach were then used for data optimization.Five machine learning classifiers—the simple logistic classifier,the random forest,bagging,naïve Bayes,and the support vector machine—were applied to the optimized dataset.The results show that the simple logistic classifier yielded the highest accuracy of 82.14%for the USD and the PKR exchange rates forecasting.

Impacts of Exchange Rate Volatility and FDI on Technical Efficiency—A Case Study of Vietnamese Agricultural Sector

The objective of this research is to examine impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI on efficiency of the Vietnamese agricultural sector at the provincial level for the period 1998-2011. Due to the characteristic of high uncertainty in agricultural production, the chance-constrained programming model would be used to estimate efficiency of the agricultural production sector. In order to study impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI, we employ the two-stage model. In the first stage, we use the chance-constrained programming model to measure technical efficiency and ARIMA model to quantify exchange rate volatility. In the second stage, we use the fixed effect model to evaluate impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI on efficiency of agricultural production in poor and rich provinces. The estimated results show that fluctuation in exchange rate volatility would reduce efficiency in agricultural production but FDI has an insignificant impact on the efficient production in Vietnam agricultural sector.

The Influence of Bond Market Opening in Trade Field on RMB Internationalization Foreign Exchange Rate

In order to verify that the open bond market is the most direct choice to promote the internationalization of RMB,the empirical analysis method is used to analyze the impact of bond liberalization on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.Firstly,the data source processing method of empirical analysis is introduced.Then the dynamic panel data regression model and panel threshold model are built to verify the influence factors of RMB internationalization foreign exchange rate and the influence of debt market opening on RMB foreign exchange rate,respectively.The results show that the opening of the creditor's rights market has a significant positive promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate,and the development of the domestic creditor's rights market has a significant promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.The study has a certain role in promoting the status of China's currency in the international community.

Discussion of Exchange Rate Fluctcation Using IS-LM Model

This paper analyses the essential cause of exchange market fluctuation by using IS－LM model: excessive investment causes goods overstocking in goods market, which brings about supply exceeding demand:financial market loses equilibrium as well, resulting imbalance of money demand and money supply, which causes interest rate to drop. This Paper gives the relationship between interest rate and exchange rate: as a result of interest rate dropping, exchange rate is in great turbulence,whose fluctuation range relates to some coefficients.

Influence of magnetic field sweep rate on the hysteresis loops of Ni0.8Fe0.2/Fe0.5Mn0.5 exchange bias bilayer

The influence of the magnetic field sweep rate on the hysteresis loops of exchange bias Ni0.8Fe0.2/Fe0.5Mn0.5 bilayers has been investigated with a vibrating sample magnetometer. It was found that the sweep rate of 13.6 kA/4πms is high enough to bring about obvious changes in the hysteresis loops of the exchange bias bilayer. High sweep rate in the magnetization reversal stage enlarges the coercivity of the sample, while high sweep rate in the saturation state reduces the coercivity. The above phenomena were attributed to magnetic viscosity in the ferromagnetic layer enhanced by the interface exchange interaction and domain magnetization reversals assisted by thermal fluctuation in the antiferromagnetic layer respectively.

Effects of sulfur dioxide on growth， gas exchange rate and leaf sulfur content of massion pine seedlings

The effects of sulfur dioxide(SO_2) on the dry weight growth gas exchange rate and leaf sulfur content of massion pine(Pinus massoniana Lamb. )were investigated. The results obtained in this study show that the dry weight growth and net photosynthetic rate of masson pine seedlings are reduced by exposure to SO_2 at ≥100 ppb. From these results,one of the main causes in the dieback of masson pine forest reported in Chongqing,China may be relatively high concentrations of atmospheric SO_2 in the relevant area.

Numerical Computing for a Class of Free Multipoint Boundary Value Problem of O.D.E in the Intervention of Exchange Rate

In this paper by means of generalized shooting method and homotopy technique a numerical method was given for computing free multipoint boundary value problem proposed in the intervention of exchange rate by Cadenillas and Femaado Zapatero. A numerical example was given for illustrating the validity of this method.

Subprime Mortgage Crisis and the Exchange Rate Channel: Evidence from Six Countries of the Zone Euro-Med

This article proposes to assess the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the exchange rate channel in 6 countries of the Euro-Med zone. To do this, our analysis is based on three evaluation methods that allow us to conclude that the exchange rate channel is better evaluated by the non-linear approach of the countries studied. Thus, the depreciation of the exchange rate adopted by the countries of the Med zone did worse macroeconomic stability and economic convergence.

Is pass‑through of the exchange rate to restaurant and hotel prices asymmetric in the US?Role of monetary policy uncertainty

This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.

Exchange Rate Market Sentiment Analysis of Major Global Currencies

The paper deals with the analysis of market sentiments in exchange rates which are of great interest to trading individuals and institutional investors. For example, an institutional investor or a trading individual makes better investments and minimizes losses when equipped with an understanding of market sentiments in weekly or monthly exchange returns. In the approach suggested here, a typical market sentiment is defined on the basis of the certain function of the mean and the standard error of the logarithm of the ratio of successive daily exchange rates. Based on this surmise, the market sentiments are classified into various states, whereby states are defined according to the perceptions of the market player. A multinomial probability model is built to capture the uncertainties in market sentiments. Two asymptotically distribution-free tests, namely the chi-square and the likelihood ratio test of goodness of fit for the hypothesis of the symmetry in market sentiments are suggested. Two different measures of market sentiments are proposed. The approach advocated here will be of interest to researchers, exchange rate traders and financial analysts. As an application of the proposed line of approach, we analyze weekly market sentiments that govern exchange rates of the major global currencies—EUR, GBP, SDR, YEN, ZAR, USD, data from 2001-2012. Some interesting conclusions are revealed based on the data analysis.

Recent Experience of the Effects of Intervention on Exchange Rates

Recently, foreign exchange rates have been highly volatile all over the world. This article reports on an empirical examination of the effectiveness of foreign exchange market intervention in Tokyo foreign exchange market. In Japan, intervention in the foreign exchange market has occurred frequently and largely. In 2010, exchange rates fluctuated greatly, and the Japanese yen appreciated greatly against other foreign currencies. The Bank of Japan （BOJ） conducted an intervention in the foreign exchange market and bought massive USD to weaken the yen. They are expected to prevent too much appreciation of the yen, to promote export, and expansion of the economy. Recent foreign exchange market intervention in Tokyo has been effective in preventing the Japanese yen from appreciating against other currencies. Also, unsterilization has had a positive effect on depreciation of the yen. Moreover, news announcements by the Bank of Japan （BOJ） has led to depreciation of the yen. Effective announcements would increase the effects on markets. Sterilization in intervention and market communication are both taken into account in this article. The BOJ＇s news announcements seem to convey to markets adequately and communication between the bank and markets functions well. Moreover, the past exchange rate （i.e., the signaling effect） also is important to the movement of exchange rates. On the other hand, portfolio channel is not found

Theory of Capital,Investment and Exchange Rate:A New Developmentalist Equation

The article deals with the relationship between the decision to invest and the exchange rate. The literature relates investment at interest rate. An increase in the interest rate would reduce the investment expenditure. Jorgenson’s equation uses the flexible accelerator model, taxation, and the cost of capital to explain and predict the amount of investment in machinery and equipment. The relationship between the exchange rate and the investment appears in the literature as a direct relation. An appreciated exchange rate allows the importation of cheaper machinery and equipment and increases productive investments. This paper proposes a modified equation in which the appreciated exchange rate inhibits productive investments by reducing the expectation of profit, either because the domestic market becomes more competitive or because exports decrease. It still incorporates in the model of Jorgenson the idea that the unit cost of labor is the relevant variable to explain the choice of investing, assuming a function of production of fixed coefficients.

TRANSFORM THE MECHANISM OF RENMINBI’S EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM IN CONFORMITY WITH THE DEMAND OF MARKET ECONOMY——The academic report delivered at the Annual Meeting of NNCIFS on October 1993

Exchange rate functions under systems of centrallyplanned economy and market economy are quite different,and the mechanism to determine such exchange rate is alsodifferent. To adopt a socialist market economic system inChina, the exchange rate mechanism of Renminbi must bethoroughly transformed. To accomplish this goal, I believethere are three problems that must be solved: first,

To Accomplish the Unaccomplished Reform： Lessons and Options of RMB Exchange Rate Reform

The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the "crawl-like arrangement" to a floating regime.However,after a three-day experiment,the PBoC abandoned the original goal of the reform.Since then,the central bank has implemented a new exchange rate-setting mechanism.Under this mechanism,the central parity of the renminbi(RMB) against the US dollar is decided by the arithmetic average of the RMB exchange rate that keeps the index of a currency basket unchanged over the past 24 hours and the previous day's closing price of USD/CNY.Due to the introduction of the index of a currency basket,additional uncertainty has been introduced into the determination of the RMB exchange rate,because of the uncertainty of the dollar index(USDX).As a result,to a certain extent,the one-way bet on the RMB expectations is weakened.However,the current exchange rate formation mechanism cannot reverse the trend of devaluation of the RMB,nor can it eliminate depreciation expectations.Meanwhile,it hinders the effectiveness of central bank's independent monetary policy based on the domestic economic fundamentals.And also,the "two-way float" created by the new price-setting mechanism is artificial and has led to significant losses of foreign exchange reserve.The paper explains how the new price-setting mechanism works,and identifies the important features of the mechanism and its pros and cons.The paper argues that despite some advantages,the new exchange rate regime as a soft peg regime is not sustainable and the PBoC should stop foreign exchange market intervention as soon as possible.We hope that the PBoC can learn the lessons from the failure of the "August 11 reform" and accomplish the unaccomplished reform in an urgent manner.

Analysis on the exchange rate of Australian dollar

Australian dollar （AUD） maintains a fluctuant increase for long period, but in recent two years, this currency represents an anomalistic change. In order to forecast the trend of AUD, this essay examines the exchange rate of AUD in then years from March of 2000 to March of 2010, and argues the factors which create these trend changes. By means of secondary research and graphs analysis, the relevant evidence and argument was selected into four terms below： relative raw materials prices changes, relative domestic price level and Import-Expert changes, relative interest rate changes, and other factors. The examples based on the theoretics, graphs, statistics and experts＇ opinions.

Introduction of the Linked Exchange Rate System in Hong Kong

This paper examines the exchange rate regime that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority adopts-the linked exchange rate system or the currency board system. The paper will make a brief introduction of the system, including its history of development and its operation process.

Monetary Model of Exchange Rate Determination： Evidence From the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland

Using a monetary model of exchange rate determination that suggests a strong link between the nominal exchange rate and a set of monetary fundamentals, exchange rate dynamics for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland is studied. As the cointegration relationship among exchange rate, output, and the monetary fundamentals （money supply and interest rate） is found, vector autoregressions （VAR）/vector error-correction （VEC） and two-stage least squares （2SLS） error-correction models are used in this context, since both approaches allow estimating short-run correlations between exchange rates and fundamentals while taking into account the existent long-run exchange rate constraints. Based on the quarterly data for the period of 1998-2012, it is found that for all countries, an increase in the money supply, domestic output slowdown, or stronger growth abroad are factors behind a nominal exchange rate depreciation, just as predicted by the monetary model of exchange rate. However, the effects of domestic-foreign interest rate differential are quite heterogeneous, being in line with theoretical predictions of a standard monetary model for Poland only. According to the decomposition of variance, money supply and interest rates account for 30%-46% of the exchange rate variation in the Czech Republic, from 10% to 14% in Hungary, and from 23% to 42% in Poland.

A Study of Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Import-Export Trade Relations before and after Exchange Reform

Exchange rate, as a link between international markets, integrates the economies of all countries. In today's economic globalization, exchange rate plays an important role. It is one of the most effective ways to regulate the international economy, and also one of the most direct means. In this paper, based on the definition, classification and role of exchange rate, the impacts of RMB exchange rate on China's export trade after the "exchange rate reform" were studied, and the measures that China should take to deal with the impact of the continuous appreciation of RMB on imports and exports under the current environment were proposed. This paper hopes to further expand China's foreign trade.