Modeling Expected Failure Considering Repair Time and Degradation: A Rail System Case Study

The repeated failures of any equipment or systems are modeled as a renewal process. The management needs an assessment of the number of future failures to allocate the resources needed for fast repairs. Based on the idea of expectation by conditioning, special Volterra-type integral equations are derived for general types of repairs, considering the length of repair and reduced degradation of the idle object. In addition to minimal repair and failure replacement, partial repairs are also discussed when the repair results in reduction of the number of future failures or decreases the effective age of the object. Numerical integration-based algorithm and simulation study are performed to solve the resulting integral equation. Since the geometry degradation in different dimensions of a rail track and controlling and maintaining defects are of importance, a numerical example using the rail industry data is conducted. Expected number of failures of different failure type modes in rail track is calculated within a two-year interval. Results show that within a two-year period, anticipated occurrences of cross level failures, surface failures, and DPI failures are 2.4, 3.8, and 5.8, respectively.

Behavioral Decision-Making of Key Stakeholders in Public-Private Partnerships:A Hybrid Method and Benefit Distribution Study

Public-private partnerships(PPPs)have been used by governments around the world to procure and construct infrastructural amenities.It relies on private sector expertise and funding to achieve this lofty objective.However,given the uncertainties of project management,transparency,accountability,and expropriation,this phenomenon has gained tremendous attention in recent years due to the important role it plays in curbing infrastructural deficits globally.Interestingly,the reasonable benefit distribution scheme in a PPP project is related to the behavior decisionmaking of the government and social capital,aswell as the performance of the project.In this paper,the government and social capital which are the key stakeholders of PPP projects were selected as the research objects.Based on the fuzzy expected value model and game theory,a hybrid method was adopted in this research taking into account the different risk preferences of both public entities and private parties under the fuzzy demand environment.To alleviate the problem of insufficient utilization of social capital in a PPP project,this paper seeks to grasp the relationship that exists between the benefit distribution of stakeholders,their behavioral decision-making,and project performance,given that they impact the performance of both public entities and private parties,as well as assist in maximizing the overall utility of the project.Furthermore,four game models were constructed in this study,while the expected value and opportunity-constrained programming model for optimal decision-making were derived using alternate perspectives of both centralized decision-making and decentralized decision-making.Afterward,the optimal behavioral decision-making of public entities and private parties in four scenarios was discussed and thereafter compared,which led to an ensuing discussion on the benefit distribution system under centralized decision-making.Lastly,based on an example case,the influence of different confidence levels,price,and fuzzy uncertainties of PPP projects on the equilibrium strategy results of both parties were discussed,giving credence to the effectiveness of the hybrid method.The results indicate that adjusting different confidence levels yields different equilibriumpoints,and therefore signposts that social capital has a fair perception of opportunities,as well as identifies reciprocal preferences.Nevertheless,we find that an increase in the cost coefficient of the government and social capital does not inhibit the effort of both parties.Our results also indicate that a reasonable benefit distribution of PPP projects can assist them in realizing optimum Pareto improvements over time.The results provide us with very useful strategies and recommendations to improve the overall performance of PPP projects in China.

Experimental Evaluation of Trilateration-Based Outdoor Localizationwith LoRaWAN

Long Range Wide Area Network (LoRaWAN) in the Internet ofThings (IoT) domain has been the subject of interest for researchers. Thereis an increasing demand to localize these IoT devices using LoRaWAN dueto the quickly growing number of IoT devices. LoRaWAN is well suited tosupport localization applications in IoTs due to its low power consumptionand long range. Multiple approaches have been proposed to solve the localizationproblem using LoRaWAN. The Expected Signal Power (ESP) basedtrilateration algorithm has the significant potential for localization becauseESP can identify the signal’s energy below the noise floor with no additionalhardware requirements and ease of implementation. This research articleoffers the technical evaluation of the trilateration technique, its efficiency,and its limitations for the localization using LoRa ESP in a large outdoorpopulated campus environment. Additionally, experimental evaluations areconducted to determine the effects of frequency hopping, outlier removal, andincreasing the number of gateways on localization accuracy. Results obtainedfrom the experiment show the importance of calculating the path loss exponentfor every frequency to circumvent the high localization error because ofthe frequency hopping, thus improving the localization performance withoutthe need of using only a single frequency.

Fuzzy-Bayes Decision Making with Reserved Judgement

This paper discusses a method for identifying states in a multistage Decision Making Problem in which an Indifferent Event is either predetermined or can be automatically derived after the fact. First, when they are pre-set, the amount of possible information about Indifferent Event tends to be large. Therefore, since the decision is risk tolerant, the Max-Product method of Tanaka et al. is used to calculate the expected utility possibility. Next, in the case of automatic derivation after the fact, the amount of information on the possibility of Indifferent Event is relatively small, so the expected utility possibility is derived using Zadeh’s Fuzzy Event Possibility Measure. Here, it is assumed that the setting of the utility function is independent of the information on the occurrence of the Indifferent Event and is identified by the decision maker by lot drawing using the certainty equivalence method. As a concrete example, we focus on the pass/fail decision of a recommendation test, which is a two choice question in the No-Data Problem, and illustrate the multistage state identification method. .

Breeding Biology of Isolated Captive Dalmatian Pelicans (Pelecanus crispus) at the Shanghai Zoo, China

The breeding biology of a captive, isolated population of Dalmatian Pelicans (Pelecanus crispus) at theShanghaiZoo,China, was studied from 2007 to 2019. The breeding age of the Dalmatian Pelicans was estimated at three to four years old, and they started breeding in late October or early November. The clutch size varied between one and two eggs per nest, and the eggs were 83.2 ±4.8 mmin length, 55.6 ±2.9 mmin breadth and 136.1 ±21.5 gin weight. The fertility fluctuated slightly, with an average rate of 38.7% ± 9.7%, but remained consistently low. The survival rate of chicks fluctuated substantially from 0% to 100%, with an average survival rate of 68.6% ± 27.6%. The averaged values of observed heterozygosity, expected heterozygosity and polymorphism information content were 0.468, 0.465 and 0.446, respectively. It indicated that the population had a low heterozygosity and genetic diversity. There was a significant change in the breeding index compared to that recorded 40 years ago, which indicates that inbreeding depression has occurred in this small, isolated, captive population of Dalmatian Pelicans. These results can be used to improve management of Dalmatian Pelicans in captivity.

Understanding Expected Utility for Decision Making

In this paper,we present a brief version of de Finetti-Ramsey’s subjective probability theory and provide a rigorous yet intuitively plausible explanation of expected utility using elementary mathematics.In a final section,we take up the case of some“Paradoxes in Expected Utility Theory”and try to reconcile them with the help of subjective probabilities.

Study on Polymorphisms in the Blood Protein of Tibetan Mastiff

[ Objective] The aim was to study the protein polymorphism in the blood of Tibetan Mastiff, and provide some theoretical basis for resource protection and reasonable development and utilization of Tibetan Mastiff varieties. [ Method] A total of 103 blood samples were taken from four populations of Hequ Tibetan Mastiff, Qinhai Tibetan Mastiff, Tibetan Spaniel and native dogs of Qinghai. Seven blood protein Iocus（Tf, Po, Sα2, Hb, AIb, Pr and Amy）were investigated by using vertical polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis with discontinuous buffer system. Then the genetic variation during different populations was analyzed. [ Result] Genetic variations were observed in Tf, Sα2 and Po in four populations, others were not polymorphic. There were three alleles at the locus of Tf and Po, two alleles at the loci of Sα2. Effective number of alleles and Nei＇s average expected heterozygosity were 1. 532 4 and 0.230 3 relatively, all higher in Tibetan Mastiff than other populations. [ Conclusion] Protein locus in blood of Tibetan Mastiff existed in genetic variation.

资产相关结构对投资组合风险测度的影响分析

文章从分析金融资产收益率的统计特征入手,以GARCH模型为基础,用非对称幂分布描述组合资产中各金融资产收益率的边缘分布函数,在多种Copula函数情形下计算组合资产的风险值VaR及ES。结果表明:基于由多元Clayton Copula和多元Gumbel Copula组成的混合Copula函数较好地刻画了多只股票的相关结构,而且ES比VaR能够较准确地估计组合资产的尾部风险。

A Geometric Process Repair Model for the Repairable System Consisting of One Component

This paper considers the optimal replacement problem of a repairable system consisting of one component and a single repairman, assume that the system after repair is not 'as good as new', by using the geometric process, we consider a placement policy T based on the age of the system. The problem is to determine the optimal replacement policy T * such that the long_run expected benefit per unit time is maximized. Also, the explicit expression of the long_run expected benefit per unit time can be found. In some conditions, the existence and uniqueness of the optimal policy T * can be proved, finally, we prove that the policy T * is better than the policy T * in .

SV-t模型和t-Copula函数下开放式基金组合的风险分析

以泰达宏利成长等四支开放式基金为例,建立投资组合风险分析的Copula-SV-t模型,用SV-t模型和t-Copula函数描述单支基金的厚尾分布以及不同基金间的相关关系,并用VaR和ES方法度量不同权重下基金组合的风险。实证表明:Copula-SV-t模型在开放式基金组合长期风险分析及权重配置方面具有一定的应用价值;在相同权重下,与单支基金SV-t模型下加权平均后的VaR和ES相比其风险值较低,说明使用该模型更符合组合投资风险分散化的原则和目的。

基于Copula-SV-t模型的开放式基金投资组合优化

现代投资组合理论要求投资者研究不同金融资产间非线性非正态的分布特征和相关关系,进而优化相应的资产组合。结合SV-t模型和Copula函数,对单支开放式基金收益率分布的厚尾特征和不同基金间非线性的相关关系进行描述,并用ES方法度量不同权重下基金组合间的风险。实证表明:t-Copula函数下的模型更能反映出组合间的尾部相关性,此时最优组合下ES较正态Copula函数下的结果要小,说明t-Copula函数下的Copula-SV-t模型在实际中更具应用价值。

SV-t模型下人民币汇率VaR和ES的动态度量与分析

人民币汇率的风险度量是汇率风险管理的关键环节。本文首先用SV-t模型对人民币对美元、日元及欧元汇率收益的波动率进行分析,在此基础上分别运用VaR和ES方法对其风险进行动态的度量与分析比较。结果表明:SV-t模型能够刻画出人民币汇率收益率序列的波动特征;人民币对美元的VaR基本反映出其最大可能的损失;人民币对日元及欧元的Va R则低估了实际的风险水平,相应的ES虽保守却比较准确地估计出尾部风险。文章最后也对中国汇率市场的风险管理及风险监管提出了一些政策建议。

Optimal consumption-leisure, portfolio and retirement selection based on α-maxmin expected CES utility with ambiguity

This article studies optimal consumption-leisure, portfolio and retirement selection of an infinitely lived investor whose preference is formulated by a-maxmin expected CES utility which is to differentiate ambiguity and ambiguity attitude. Adopting the recursive multiple- priors utility and the technique of backward stochastic differential equations （BSDEs）, we transform the （^-maxmin expected CES utility into a classical expected CES utility under a new probability measure related to the degree of an investor＇s uncertainty. Our model investi- gates the optimal consumption-leisure-work selection, the optimal portfolio selection, and the optimal stopping problem. In this model, the investor is able to adjust her supply of labor flex- ibly above a certain minimum work-hour along with a retirement option. The problem can be analytically solved by using a variational inequality. And the optimal retirement time is given as the first time when her wealth exceeds a certain critical level. The optimal consumption-leisure and portfolio strategies before and after retirement are provided in closed forms. Finally, the distinctions of optimal consumption-leisure, portfolio and critical wealth level under ambiguity from those with no vagueness are discussed.

Statistical analysis of generalized exponential distribution under progressive censoring with binomial removals

The estimation of generalized exponential distribution based on progressive censoring with binomial removals is presented, where the number of units removed at each failure time follows a binomial distribution. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters and their confidence intervals are derived. The expected time required to complete the life test under this censoring scheme is investigated. Finally, the numerical examples are given to illustrate some theoretical results by means of Monte-Carlo simulation.

A comparison between benthic gillnet and bottom trawl for assessing fish assemblages in a shallow eutrophic lake near the Changjiang River estuary

Two fishing methods including gillnetting and trawling to estimate attributes of fish assemblage were compared in Dianshan Lake from August 2009 to July 2010. Species composition dif fered significantly between the gears, with four significant contributors in gillnet catches and one in trawl catches. Trawling collected more proportions of benthic species by number and biomass than gillnetting. Size distribution was significantly influenced by fishing technique; gillnetting captured relatively less small-sized fishes and trawling captured less large-sized individuals. Trawling produced species richness closer to the one expected than gillnetting. On the whole, trawl catch was a quadratic polynomial function of gillnet catch and a significantly negative correlation was found between them, both of which varied as dif ferent polynomial functions of temperature. However, trawl and gillnet catches were significantly correlated only in one of five month groups. It is concluded that single-gear-based surveys can be misleading in assessments of attributes of fish assemblages, bottom trawling is a more ef fective gear for assessing fish diversity than benthic gillnetting, and using gillnet catches as an indicator of fish density depends on fishing season in the lake.

Is the crop insurance program effective in China? Evidence from farmers analysis in five provinces

This paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the Chinese crop insurance program in terms of farmers＇ utility and welfare. A simulation model based on the power utility function was first developed to evaluate the effectiveness of crop insurance. Then, the Monte Carlo approach was used to generate the datasets of area, price, yield, cost, and income based on the characteristics of representative farmers, which were clustered and calibrated using the farm-level data of 574 individual farmers from five Chinese provinces. Finally, the effectiveness of Chinese crop insurance was evaluated by comparing the certainty equivalence（CE） of farmers＇ utility/welfare under alternative crop insurance scenarios. Government subsidy is a necessary premise for implementing the crop insurance program. The government should subsidize more than 50% of the crop insurance premium to motivate more farmers to participate in the program. The findings also show that the current crop insurance program in China has increased the farmers＇ welfare but still need to be improved to achieve the Pareto improvement and to make full use of the financial fund of the government. This paper is believed to not only extend academic research but also has significant implications for policymakers, especially in the context of rapid development of Chinese crop insurance with much issues such as rate, subsidy and coverage level needed to be improved.

LINEAR SEARCH FOR A BROWNIAN TARGET MOTION

A target is assumed to move according to a Brownian motion on the real line. The searcher starts from the origin and moves in the two directions from the starting point. The object is to detect the target. The purpose of this paper is to find the conditions under which the expected value of the first meeting time of the searcher and the target is finite, and to show the existence of a search plan which made this expected value minimum.

Performance-based seismic financial risk assessment of reinforced concrete frame structures

Engineering facilities subjected to natural hazards(such as winds and earthquakes) will result in risk when any designed system(i.e.capacity) will not be able to meet the performance required(i.e.demand).Risk might be expressed either as a likelihood of damage or potential financial loss.Engineers tend to make use of the former(i.e.damage).Nevertheless,other non-technical stakeholders cannot get useful information from damage.However,if financial risk is expressed on the basis of probable monetary loss,it will be easily understood by all.Therefore,it is necessary to develop methodologies which communicate the system capacity and demand to financial risk,Incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) was applied in a performance-based earthquake engineering context to do hazard analysis,structural analysis,damage analysis and loss analysis of a reinforced concrete(RC) frame structure.And the financial implications of risk were expressed by expected annual loss(EAL).The quantitative risk analysis proposed is applicable to any engineering facilities and any natural hazards.It is shown that the results from the IDA can be used to assess the overall financial risk exposure to earthquake hazard for a given constructed facility.The computational IDA-EAL method will enable engineers to take into account the long-term financial implications in addition to the construction cost.Consequently,it will help stakeholders make decisions.

Expected magnitude and distance of potential source area and the estimating method

Magnitude and distance of major potential source are needed in order to determine duration time of artificial ground motion and to determine the type of response spectrum (near field or far field) when using the seismic intensity zonation map. The magnitude probabilistic distribution function of seismic belt and the magnitude and space joint distribution function for given intensity of the site in a potential Source are provided. Then the basicformula of calculating expected magnitude and expected distance are developed. Several examples for calculating expected magnitude and expected distance in northern China are discussed. These results show that expected magnitude and expected distance are related not only to geometry of potential source and magnitude but also to the intensity of the site with certain exceeding probability.

Global Financial Crisis and Accounting Rules： The Implications of the New Exposure Draft （ED） Financial Instruments： Expected Credit Losses on the Evaluation of Banking Company Loans

During the financial crisis, the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans and other financial instruments was identified as a weakness in existing incurred loss model of impairment stated by International Accounting Standards （IAS） 39, because it is believed that this delay might generate pro-cyclical effects. In response to the recommendations of G20, Financial Crisis Advisory Group （FCAG）, and other international bodies, the International Accounting Standards Board （IASB） has undertaken, since 2009, as a part of the project to replace IAS 39, a project （partially shared with Financial Accounting Standards Board （FASB）） aimed at introducing an expected loss model of impairment. Within the scope of this subset project, the IASB has previously issued two exposure documents proposing models to account for expected credit losses： an exposure draft （ED） Financial Instrument： Amortized Cost and Impairment, published in November 2009, and a supplementary document （SD） Financial Instrument： Impairment, published jointly with the FASB in January 2011. However, neither of the two proposals received strong support from interested parties. Recently, the IASB, after the FASB＇s decision to withdraw from the joint project and to develop a separate expected credit loss model based on a single measurement approach consisting in the sole recognition of lifetime expected credit losses, published a third proposal--Ahe so-called expected credit losses model （ED/2013/3 Financial Instruments： Expected Credit Losses）.