Exploration risk evaluation using object-based modeling,an example from the Tertiary fractured play,western Qaidam Basin of China

Geological risk evaluation reveals the uncertainty of converting an anticipated resource potential in an identified exploration target into an economic petroleum accumulation prior to drilling. Providing consistent and unbiased estimates of geological risk for all exploration targets in an area of interest is essential in risk evaluation. This paper discusses the potential use of an object-based stochastic procedure for geological risk evaluation at the play level. The object-based model of Super SD, as a data integration tool, can integrate geological information of petroleum system elements that control occurrences of petroleum pools with the spatial correlation characteristics of the discoveries in a play. Other information, such as the estimated total play potential and size characteristics, from conventional resource assessments can be also incorporated into the model as geological constraints. The uncertainty associated with the data and domain knowledge in the predicted pool locations is expressed as a probability map, representing the geological exploration risk of the play. By incorporating all available inibrmation and checking the consistency of models with geological constraints, the object-based model improves predictions of petroleum occurrences, thus enhancing the associated risk evaluation. The proposed method was applied to the fractured petroleum play of the western Qaidam Basin in northwestern China in order to illustrate the use of the object-based method for risk evaluation.

Geological characteristics and exploration breakthroughs of coal rock gas in Carboniferous Benxi Formation,Ordos Basin,NW China

To explore the geological characteristics and exploration potential of the Carboniferous Benxi Formation coal rock gas in the Ordos Basin,this paper presents a systematic research on the coal rock distribution,coal rock reservoirs,coal rock quality,and coal rock gas features,resources and enrichment.Coal rock gas is a high-quality resource distinct from coalbed methane,and it has unique features in terms of burial depth,gas source,reservoir,gas content,and carbon isotopic composition.The Benxi Formation coal rocks cover an area of 16×104km^(2),with thicknesses ranging from 2 m to 25 m,primarily consisting of bright and semi-bright coals with primitive structures and low volatile and ash contents,indicating a good coal quality.The medium-to-high rank coal rocks have the total organic carbon(TOC)content ranging from 33.49%to 86.11%,averaging75.16%.They have a high degree of thermal evolution(Roof 1.2%-2.8%),and a high gas-generating capacity.They also have high stable carbon isotopic values(δ13C1of-37.6‰to-16‰;δ13C2of-21.7‰to-14.3‰).Deep coal rocks develop matrix pores such as gas bubble pores,organic pores,and inorganic mineral pores,which,together with cleats and fractures,form good reservoir spaces.The coal rock reservoirs exhibit the porosity of 0.54%-10.67%(averaging 5.42%)and the permeability of(0.001-14.600)×10^(-3)μm^(2)(averaging 2.32×10^(-3)μm^(2)).Vertically,there are five types of coal rock gas accumulation and dissipation combinations,among which the coal rock-mudstone gas accumulation combination and the coal rock-limestone gas accumulation combination are the most important,with good sealing conditions and high peak values of total hydrocarbon in gas logging.A model of coal rock gas accumulation has been constructed,which includes widespread distribution of medium-to-high rank coal rocks continually generating gas,matrix pores and cleats/fractures in coal rocks acting as large-scale reservoir spaces,tight cap rocks providing sealing,source-reservoir integration,and five types of efficient enrichment patterns(lateral pinchout complex,lenses,low-amplitude structures,nose-like structures,and lithologically self-sealing).According to the geological characteristics of coal rock gas,the Benxi Formation is divided into 8 plays,and the estimated coal rock gas resources with a buried depth of more than 2000 m are more than 12.33×10^(12)m^(3).The above understandings guide the deployment of risk exploration.Two wells drilled accordingly obtained an industrial gas flow,driving the further deployment of exploratory and appraisal wells.Substantial breakthroughs have been achieved,with the possible reserves over a trillion cubic meters and the proved reserves over a hundred billion cubic meters,which is of great significance for the reserves increase and efficient development of natural gas in China.

Risk Management and Operation Strategies of Chinese Overseas Risk Exploration Projects

Currently,the investment of oil and gas industry is still facing an unfavorable environment,in which,instable factors,such as financial crisis,terrorist,religious conflicts and rigorous environmental regulations,keep mucking up the business all around the world.Meanwhile,China’s rapid energy consumption growth boosted by a booming economy has put the country to rely heavily on exported oil.It is therefore extremely urgent to expand and diversify petroleum supply channel in consideration of the country’s energy security.As the world’s economy has been slowly recovering from the slump and

Some Suggested Future Directions ofQuantitative Resource Assessments

Future quantitative assessments will be expected to estimate quantities, values, and locations of undiscovered mineral resources in a form that conveys both economic viability and uncertainty associated with the resources. Historically, declining metal prices point to the need for larger deposits over time. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the greatest opportunity for reducing uncertainty in assessments lies in lowering uncertainty associated with tonnage estimates. Of all errors possible in assessments, these affecting tonnage estimates are by far the most important. Selecting the correct deposit model is the most important way of controlling errors because of the dominance of tonnage-deposit models are the best known predictors of tonnage. Much of the surface is covered with apparently barren rocks and sediments in many large regions. Because many exposed mineral deposits are believed to have been found, a prime concern is the presence of possible mineralized rock under cover. Assessments of areas with resources under cover must rely on extrapolation from surrounding areas, new geologic maps of rocks under cover, or analogy with other well-explored areas that can be considered training tracts. Cover has a profound effect on uncertainty and on methods and procedures of assessments because geology is seldom known and geophysical methods typically have attenuated responses. Many earlier assessment methods were based on relationships of geochemical and geophysical variables to deposits learned from deposits exposed on the surface-these will need to be relearned based on covered deposits. Mineral-deposit models are important in quantitative resource assessments for two reasons: (1) grades and tonnages of most deposit types are significantly different, and (2) deposit types are present in different geologic settings that can be identified from geologic maps. Mineral-deposit models are the keystone in combining the diverse geoscience information on geology, mineral occurrences, geophysics, and geochemistry used in resource assessments and mineral exploration. Grade and tonnage models and development of quantitative descriptive, economic, and deposit density models will help reduce the uncertainty of these new assessments.

The exploration of the correlation between the risk of obesity and the promoter methylation of PRDM16 gene

Objective To explore the association between the Cp G methylation level of positive regulatory domain containing 16(PRDM16)gene promoter and obesity or body mass index(BMI).Methods A total of 116 patients(91female adults and 25 male adults)with abdominal operation in a municipal hospital of Henan province were enrolled in this study and they were divided into