Empirical analysis of carbon tariff's effect on the export structure of China's manufacturing industry and social welfare based on the GTAP model

In recent years,carbon emissions have gradually evolved from an environment issue into a political and economic one.Carbon tariff has brought about new trade barriers of developed countries,and in order to enhance the industrial competitiveness of developed countries,it will produce unfavorable impact on developing countries.Concentrated on the manufacturing industry,which is the most intensive high-carbon industry in China's export structure,this article studies the relationship between carbon tariff policy and industry structure of export trade and builds up a relation between climate change and international trade.First,by means of establishing a partial equilibrium model,it applies geometric analysis and mathematical analysis to compute the impact on China's manufacturing export trade and the consequences of the introduction of the US carbon tariff to China's manufacturing industry that has already imposed a domestic shipping carbon tax.Furthermore,with the application of the GTAP model,it estimates the overall economic and welfare effects on China's manufacturing industry if the US and Europe introduce carbon tariff by means of four ways,and then analyzes the influence on China's manufacturing industry export structure and social welfare as well.The result shows that the introduction of the US carbon import tariff lowers China's export price and export volume,and the implementation of a domestic carbon tax justifies a higher export price and a lower export volume for China.However,the degree of export reduction is smaller than that under the effect of the US carbon tariff.In the case of developed countries imposing carbon tariff on China's energy-intensive industries,such as chemical rubber products,oil and coal-processing industry and paper industry,whose export would be reduced,the negative impact on the paper industry is the severest,which will decrease the paper industry's export ranging from 1.79%to 6.05%,whereas the other industries' export will increase.Anyhow,it will promote China's manufacturing industry to adjust the export structure to a certain extent.In addition,it will lead to a decrease in China's welfare,with a decrease between $2,134 billion and $8,347 billion.Finally,this paper provides information on international coordination,export structure adjustment and green manufacturing adjustment as a reference for the development of China's manufacturing industry.

OPTIMIZING CHINA'S EXPORT STRUCTURE COMBINING GOAL PROGRAMMING AND NON-COMPETITIVE INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL

supported by the Taishan Scholar Construction Engineering by Shandong Government the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.61120106011 and 61203029

The Influences of Population Age Structure＇s Changes on the Export Commodity Structure

For a long time, China has large population, so the labor-intensive products become the comparative advantage.This paper analyzes the influences of population age structure＇s changes on the export commodity structure of our country and draws conclusions.

Mechanism of Structural Transformation of China＇s Technology Export

Extending Long＇s （2001） two-sector model into a three-sector model, this paper constructs a new framework for analysing the evolution mechanism of the structure of technology exports. The authors also have applied an adjusted Hausman model to measure the structure of exported technology at China＇s provincial level regions. Upon this foundation, approaching the subject from its domestic and international impact factors, this paper empirically tests the motives driving the structural transformation of China＇s technology export. The conclusions are： （1） the structure of China＇s technology export has improved significantly in recent years, but not as highly as measured by Rodrik （2006） et al. （2） The dynamic mechanism of the structure of China＇s technology export differs from that of the other developing countries. At national and regional levels, the mounting physical capital stock is the fundamental driving force, but with obvious decreasing marginal utility. （3） Excessive unskilled labor in the capital production sector in the central and western regions, and excessively low export prices in the eastern regions have caused negative effects of the skilled labor in the western region and unskilled labor in the eastern region on local structure of technology export.

China-Indian Silk Trade:Current Production and Future Prospects

As an important traditional labor-intensive industry of both India and China, the cocoon silk industry has long made great contributions to the ecological environment protection, rural economic development and the increase in export income of both countries. India is not only a very important cocoon silk trading partner, but an important production competitor of China. In recent years, there has been a large increase in the production and trade of the cocoon silk between China and India; however, China relies heavily on Indian market, which leads to a tendency of further deterioration in the silk trade environment between both countries. The present article makes an empirical study of the cocoon silk resources of the two countries and the scale, product mix and market structure of China-Indian silk trade from 2001 to 2007. Overall silk trading volumes from China to India and market concentration rate are on the increase because of the superiority of Chinese cocoon silk production over that of India. Owing to scattered market share and export that mainly focused on raw materials product, there has been a phenomenon of price reduction and quantity increase. India carries out fierce competition with China in the international market and even imposes antidumping sanction on Chinese silk, which are key factors restricting further increase between China-India trade. Based on the abovementioned facts, the authors aim to put forward suggestions for steadily developing the production and trade of China's silk.

Does Outward Foreign Direct Investment Facilitate China’s Export Upgrading?

This paper empirically investigates the impact of China’s outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)on its export sophistication.Using a provincial-level panel dataset and applying fixed effects and instrumental variable regression techniques,the study finds that,on average,OFDI has no significant impact on China s export sophistication.However,after the full sample is divided into different regions,the study finds that OFDI has a positive and significant impact on export sophistication in the developed coastal region,but no such impact is observed in the less developed inland regions.Further investigation using a panel threshold model reveals that only when GDP,per capita GDP,human capital,and the research and development intensity of a home economy reach a certain level can OFDI promote export sophistication.The findings suggest that accelerating economic development and increasing absorptive capacity can facilitate the contribution of OFDI to China’s export sophistication.

Development in China's Foreign Trade:2003-2012

China＇s foreign trade has entered a new stage, marked by some profound changes since 2003. After 5 years ＇consecutive high growth, China＇s foreign trade experienced a significant slowdown in growth following the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. The purpose of this article is to present a review of the development in China＇s foreign trade over the past l O years, and to explore important changes that have taken place during this period of time. A majorfinding of the presentpaper is that the traditional forces driving the high export growth in China, that is, low-cost labor, low-cost resources and low-cost money, have been disappearing. The policy implication is that over the next l O-15 years, the most important conditions for sustaining high export growth will be promoting the development and export of private enterprises in traditional heaw industries and high-technology industries, and relying on technological progress and high produc6vity to propel export expansion.