Approach and potential of replacing oil and natural gas with coal in China

China’s fossil energy is characterized by an abundance of coal and a relative lack of oil and natural gas.Developing a strategy in which coal can replace oil and natural gas is,therefore,a necessary and practical approach to easing the excessive external dependence on oil and natural gas.Based on the perspective of energy security,this paper proposes a technical framework for defining the substitution of oil and natural gas with coal in China.In this framework,three substitution classifications and 11 industrialized technical routes are reviewed.Then,three scenarios(namely,the cautious scenario,baseline scenario,and positive scenario)are developed to estimate the potential of this strategy for 2020 and 2030.The results indicate that oil and natural gas replaced by coal will reach 67 to 81 Mt and 8.7 to 14.3 Gm^3 in 2020 and reach 93 to 138 Mt and 32.3 to 47.3 Gm^3 in 2030,respectively.By implementing this strategy,China’s external dependence on oil,natural gas,and primary energy is expected to be curbed at approximately 70%,40%,and 20%by 2030,respectively.This paper also demonstrates how coal,as a substitute for oil and natural gas,can contribute to carbon and pollution reduction and economic cost savings.It suggests a new direction for the development of the global coal industry and provides a crucial reference for energy transformation in China and other countries with similar energy situations.

Analysis and countermeasures of natural gas development in China

Natural gas has become a transitional bridge from fossil to green and clean energy worldwide.The importance of natural gas utilization in energy structure optimization and green development is no exception for China.However,the supply of China’s natural gas limits the country’s demand with three factors.(1)China’s natural gas resource is relatively rich,but its quality is poor with deep burial depth.Therefore,the annual plateau yield of natural gas cannot be high,with an estimated value of approximately 260-270 x 109 m3.(2)The demand for natural gas in China’s economic development is growing rapidly.The peak demand is estimated to be approximately 550-650 x 109 m3 per year or even higher.The import volume of natural gas will soon exceed that of domestic self-produced gas.(3)Natural gas is a necessity closely related to livelihood.Particularly,a shortage in natural gas supply affects social stability.Therefore,its external dependency should be under 50%and not exceed 60%.In this study,the future situation of China's natural gas is forecasted,and relevant countermeasures and suggestions are proposed in accordance with research on China’s natural gas resource potential,production trend,supplydemand link,and gas supply safety factors.