Curve Fitting and Least Square Analysis to Extrapolate for the Case of COVID-19 Status in Ethiopia

On 30 January 2020 World Health Organization (WHO), declared the novel corona virus as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), COVID-19 virus as an epidemic transmitted virus. It was on 31 December 2019, the WHO China Country office was informed the cases of pneumonia unknown etiology detected in Wuhan city, Hubei Province of China. Just after WHO’s declaration, Ethiopia has taken different measures to protect from this public health emergency problem. The disease is human to human transmitted virus. It comes from outside of the country, so that it opens check points in different entrance of the country. However, in 13 March 2020 the first positive case was reported from Japanese man. The virus is continuing the transmission in the public progressively more. While this research has been working, within 90 days from the first case, the country reported 2506 positive cases, 35 deaths. The research has done after collecting the first 90 days of data in Ethiopian case. Daily report announced by Ethiopian MoH is based on the test. And hence, the reported data as positive cases with COVID-19 is not actual positive case data in the country. There for, this paper has contribution for planning and taking further measure on the viruses by demonstrating the next 90 days predictive data. I use best curve fitting analysis using python function of the module polyfit algorithm to predict the trend of COVID-19 cases in Ethiopia.

A NEW STABILIZED SUBGRID EDDY VISCOSITY METHOD BASED ON PRESSURE PROJECTION AND EXTRAPOLATED TRAPEZOIDAL RULE FOR THE TRANSIENT NAVIER-STOKES EQUATIONS

We consider a new subgrid eddy viscosity method based on pressure projection and extrapolated trapezoidal rule for the transient Navier-Stokes equations by using lowest equal-order pair of finite elements. The scheme stabilizes convection dominated problems and ameliorates the restrictive inf-sup compatibility stability. It has some attractive fea- tures including parameter free for the pressure stabilized term and calculations required for higher order derivatives. Moreover, it requires only the solutions of the linear system arising from an Oseen problem per time step and has second order temporal accuracy. The method achieves optimal accuracy with respect to solution regularity.

STRONGLY CONVERGENT INERTIAL FORWARD-BACKWARD-FORWARD ALGORITHM WITHOUT ON-LINE RULE FOR VARIATIONAL INEQUALITIES

This paper studies a strongly convergent inertial forward-backward-forward algorithm for the variational inequality problem in Hilbert spaces.In our convergence analysis,we do not assume the on-line rule of the inertial parameters and the iterates,which have been assumed by several authors whenever a strongly convergent algorithm with an inertial extrapolation step is proposed for a variational inequality problem.Consequently,our proof arguments are different from what is obtainable in the relevant literature.Finally,we give numerical tests to confirm the theoretical analysis and show that our proposed algorithm is superior to related ones in the literature.

OPTIMUM MODIFIED EXTRAPOLATED JACOBI METHOD FOR CONSISTENTLY ORDERED MATRICES

This paper is concerlled with the investigation of a twrvparametric linear stationary iterative method, called Modified Extrapolated Jacobi (MEJ) method, for solving linear systems Ax = b, where A is a nonsingular consistently ordered 2-cyclic matrix. We give sufficient and necessary conditions for strong convergence of the MEJ method and we determine the optimum extrapolation parameters and the optimum spectral radius of it, in the case where all the efornvalues of the block Jacobi iteration matrir associated with A are real. In the last section, we compare the MEJ with other known methods.

Ability of the radial basis function approach to extrapolate nuclear mass

The ability of the radial basis function(RBF)approach to extrapolate the masses of nuclei in neutron-rich and superheavy regions is investigated in combination with the Duflo-Zuker(DZ31),Hartree–Fock-Bogoliubov(HFB27),finite-range droplet model(FRDM12)and Weizsäcker-Skyrme(WS4)mass models.It is found that when the RBF approach is employed with a simple linear basis function,different mass models have different performances in extrapolating nuclear masses in the same region,and a single mass model may have different performances when it is used to extrapolate nuclear masses in different regions.The WS4 and FRDM12 models(two macroscopic–microscopic mass models),combined with the RBF approach,may perform better when extrapolating the nuclear mass in the neutron-rich and superheavy regions.

Extrapolated Smoothing Descent Algorithm for Constrained Nonconvex and Nonsmooth Composite Problems

In this paper,the authors propose a novel smoothing descent type algorithm with extrapolation for solving a class of constrained nonsmooth and nonconvex problems,where the nonconvex term is possibly nonsmooth.Their algorithm adopts the proximal gradient algorithm with extrapolation and a safe-guarding policy to minimize the smoothed objective function for better practical and theoretical performance.Moreover,the algorithm uses a easily checking rule to update the smoothing parameter to ensure that any accumulation point of the generated sequence is an(afne-scaled)Clarke stationary point of the original nonsmooth and nonconvex problem.Their experimental results indicate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

A Comparison Study of Synkinematic Illite Isolation,Quantitative X-ray Powder Diffraction,and K-Ar Dating for Direct Fault Gouge Analyses

K-Ar dating of synkinematic illite is increasingly recognized as a central method to constrain the timing of shallow crustal faulting.Methods of efficient sample preparation and quantitative identification of illite polytypes are critical to acquiring K-Ar isotope data for authigenic clays.In this respect,we compared the commonly used clay size separation method through centrifugation with vacuum filtration technology,showing that the former is prone to extract fractions with finer particle sizes under similar conditions,thus improving the error in the authigenic end-member age.Additionally,we demonstrated that the side-packed mounting method for X-ray diffraction analysis can significantly enhance the randomness in powder samples,thus improving the quantification accuracy compared with the front-packed and back-packed methods.The validity of our quantification method was confirmed by comparing Profex■modeling patterns with a suite of synthetic mixtures of known compositions,yielding an average analytical error of 3%.Dating results of these artificial mixtures and the reference materials indicated that a large range in percentages of detrital illite and a sufficient amount of age data will produce reliable results for ages of both extrapolated end-members.However,if the range is limited,the extrapolated age close to those of datasets is still reliable.

CEMA-LSTM:Enhancing Contextual Feature Correlation for Radar Extrapolation Using Fine-Grained Echo Datasets

Accurate precipitation nowcasting can provide great convenience to the public so they can conduct corresponding arrangements in advance to deal with the possible impact of upcoming heavy rain.Recent relevant research activities have shown their concerns on various deep learning models for radar echo extrapolation,where radar echo maps were used to predict their consequent moment,so as to recognize potential severe convective weather events.However,these approaches suffer from an inaccurate prediction of echo dynamics and unreliable depiction of echo aggregation or dissipation,due to the size limitation of convolution filter,lack of global feature,and less attention to features from previous states.To address the problems,this paper proposes a CEMA-LSTM recurrent unit,which is embedded with a Contextual Feature Correlation Enhancement Block(CEB)and a Multi-Attention Mechanism Block(MAB).The CEB enhances contextual feature correlation and supports its model to memorize significant features for near-future prediction;the MAB uses a position and channel attention mechanism to capture global features of radar echoes.Two practical radar echo datasets were used involving the FREM and CIKM 2017 datasets.Both quantification and visualization of comparative experimental results have demonstrated outperformance of the proposed CEMA-LSTMover recentmodels,e.g.,PhyDNet,MIM and PredRNN++,etc.In particular,compared with the second-rankedmodel,its average POD,FAR and CSI have been improved by 3.87%,1.65%and 1.79%,respectively on the FREM,and by 1.42%,5.60%and 3.16%,respectively on the CIKM 2017.

Extrapolation of upwelling irradiance just beneath the ocean surface from the in-water radiometric profile measurements

Accurate measurements of upwelling irradiance just beneath the ocean surface,E_(u)(λ,0^(-)),can be used to calculate ocean optical parameters,and further develop retrieval algorithms for remotely sensing water component concentrations.Due to the effects of sea surface waves,perturbation from instrument platform(ship),and instrument self-shading,E_(u)(λ,0^(-))is often difficult to be accurately measured.This study presents a procedure for extrapolating the E_(u)(λ,0^(-))from the in-water radiometric profile measurements.Using the optical profile data from 13 bands(ranging from 381 to 779 nm)measured by 45 casts in the Ligurian Sea during 2003–2009,the E_(u)(λ,0^(-))was extrapolated from in-water upwelling irradiance measurements between the initial shallow depth,Z_(0),and an optimal bottom depth,Z_(1),by three linear models(linear,2-degree polynomial,and exponential)and two nonlinear models(LOESS and spline).The accumulated errors of extrapolated E_(u)(λ,0^(-))at each wavelength for the five models were calculated.It was found that the optimal Z_(1) depth for the linear and exponential models was at the depth of80%of E_(u)(λ,Z_(0)),50%of E_(u)(λ,Z_(0))for the 2-degree polynomial model,40%of E_(u)(λ,Z_(0))for the LOESS model,and 15%of E_(u)(λ,Z_(0))for the spline model.The extrapolated E_(u)(λ,0^(-))derived from the five models was in good agreement with the calculated true E_(u)(λ,0^(-)).In all bands,the 2-degree polynomial model achieved the highest accuracy,followed by the LOESS model.In the short band of 381–559 nm,the linear and exponential models had the third-best performance,and the spline model performed worst within this range.For the red band of 619–779 nm,the accuracies of the exponential and spline models had the third highest performance,and the linear model produced lowest accuracy.Hence,the 2-degree polynomial model was an optimal procedure for extrapolation of E_(u)(λ,0^(-))from the in-water radiometric profile measurements.

Extrapolation over temporal knowledge graph via hyperbolic embedding

Predicting potential facts in the future,Temporal Knowledge Graph(TKG)extrapolation remains challenging because of the deep dependence between the temporal association and semantic patterns of facts.Intuitively,facts(events)that happened at different timestamps have different influences on future events,which can be attributed to a hierarchy among not only facts but also relevant entities.Therefore,it is crucial to pay more attention to important entities and events when forecasting the future.However,most existing methods focus on reasoning over temporally evolving facts or mining evolutional patterns from known facts,which may be affected by the diversity and variability of the evolution,and they might fail to attach importance to facts that matter.Hyperbolic geometry was proved to be effective in capturing hierarchical patterns among data,which is considered to be a solution for modelling hierarchical relations among facts.To this end,we propose ReTIN,a novel model integrating real-time influence of historical facts for TKG reasoning based on hyperbolic geometry,which provides low-dimensional embeddings to capture latent hierarchical structures and other rich semantic patterns of the existing TKG.Considering both real-time and global features of TKG boosts the adaptation of ReTIN to the ever-changing dynamics and inherent constraints.Extensive experiments on benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of ReTIN over various baselines.The ablation study further supports the value of exploiting temporal information.

Improved Weather Radar Echo Extrapolation Through Wind Speed Data Fusion Using a New Spatiotemporal Neural Network Model

Weather radar echo extrapolation plays a crucial role in weather forecasting.However,traditional weather radar echo extrapolation methods are not very accurate and do not make full use of historical data.Deep learning algorithms based on Recurrent Neural Networks also have the problem of accumulating errors.Moreover,it is difficult to obtain higher accuracy by relying on a single historical radar echo observation.Therefore,in this study,we constructed the Fusion GRU module,which leverages a cascade structure to effectively combine radar echo data and mean wind data.We also designed the Top Connection so that the model can capture the global spatial relationship to construct constraints on the predictions.Based on the Jiangsu Province dataset,we compared some models.The results show that our proposed model,Cascade Fusion Spatiotemporal Network(CFSN),improved the critical success index(CSI)by 10.7%over the baseline at the threshold of 30 dBZ.Ablation experiments further validated the effectiveness of our model.Similarly,the CSI of the complete CFSN was 0.004 higher than the suboptimal solution without the cross-attention module at the threshold of 30 dBZ.

Estimating Sums of Convergent Series via Rational Polynomials

Sums of convergent series for any desired number of terms, which may be infinite, are estimated very accurately by establishing definite rational polynomials. For infinite number of terms the sum infinite is obtained by taking the asymptotic limit of the rational polynomial. A rational function with second-degree polynomials both in the numerator and denominator is found to produce excellent results. Sums of series with different characteristics such as alternating signs are considered for testing the performance of the proposed approach.

A New Extrapolation Economy Cascadic Multigrid Method for Image Restoration Problems

In this paper, a new extrapolation economy cascadic multigrid method is proposed to solve the image restoration model. The new method combines the new extrapolation formula and quadratic interpolation to design a nonlinear prolongation operator, which provides more accurate initial values for the fine grid level. An edge preserving denoising operator is constructed to remove noise and preserve image edges. The local smoothing operator reduces the influence of staircase effect. The experiment results show that the new method not only improves the computational efficiency but also ensures good recovery quality.

基于Extrapolation Tikhonov正则化算法的重力数据三维约束反演

通过研究重力数据三维反演解的病态性,利用基于拉格朗日插值方法的Extrapolation Tikhonov正则化方法来解决反演中解的不唯一性和不稳定性问题,该方法最大限度的减少了因正则化参数的引入而在反演结果中介入的误差,同时详细讨论了基于三种选择原则的正则化双参数的具体选择方法,模型试算结果表明,与原Tikhonov方法相比,该方法提高了反演的拟合精度.其次,为了消除核函数随深度增加而快速衰减对反演结果的影响,本文改进了前人的重力数据三维反演深度加权函数,改进后的加权函数与原函数相比能更好的识别异常体底部密度分布特征,对于埋深较深的异常体具有较好的识别效果,更好的解决了由近地面趋肤效应作用引起的密度分布不均的问题.同时,利用上下限约束函数限制每一个立方体的密度差范围,并应用于多组人工合成模型.结果表明:该反演方法能准确地获得正演模型的预设参数范围和位置.

利用Extrapolation Tikhonov正则化算法进行重力梯度三维密度反演（英文）

本文利用Extrapolation Tikhonov正则化算法处理重力梯度数据三维密度反演的线性不适定问题。与Tikhonov正则化方法相比,Extrapolation Tikhonov正则化方法减小了因正则化参数的引入而带来的反演结果误差,提高了预测数据与观测数据之间的拟合精度。同时为了消除位场数据反演时位置函数快速衰减对反演结果的影响,本文提出了基于重力梯度全张量特征向量法的深度加权函数,模型试验证明了该深度加权函数能有效识别异常体密度分布特征。对澳大利亚Kauring地区实测重力梯度数据进行反演,并和已有研究成果对比分析。结果表明该反演方法能够较好的获取地下异常体的密度分布信息。

基于Power Extrapolation和Adaptive Method的网页评估新算法

Google的PageRank算法通过对超链接结构的分析,有效地提高了搜索结果的排序质量。PowerExtrapolation算法通过特征值直接求解马尔可夫超链接矩阵的主特征向量,但该算法的迭代次数与参数d的选择密切相关,而参数d的确定目前无明显规律可寻。另一方面,AdaptiveMethod通过将马尔可夫超链接矩阵稀疏化以达到节省迭代时间的目的。文章在PowerExtrapolation算法的基础上引入AdaptiveMethod,实验结果初步证明了新算法可以减少迭代运算的时间。

A new full discrete stabilized viscosity method for transient Navier-Stokes equations

A new full discrete stabilized viscosity method for the transient Navier-Stokes equations with the high Reynolds number （small viscosity coefficient） is proposed based on the pressure projection and the extrapolated trapezoidal rule. The transient Navier-Stokes equations are fully discretized by the continuous equal-order finite elements in space and the reduced Crank-Nicolson scheme in time. The new stabilized method is stable and has many attractive properties. First, the system is stable for the equal-order combination of discrete continuous velocity and pressure spaces because of adding a pres- sure projection term. Second, the artifical viscosity parameter is added to the viscosity coefficient as a stability factor, so the system is antidiffusive. Finally, the method requires only the solution to a linear system at every time step. Stability and convergence of the method is proved. The error estimation results show that the method has a second-order accuracy, and the constant in the estimation is independent of the viscosity coefficient. The numerical results are given, which demonstrate the advantages of the method presented.

重力数据3D密度成像中EXTR方法的各参数变化对反演结果的影响(英文)

Tikhonov正则化(TR)方法在重磁数据处理中发挥了重要的作用,本文在研究如何利用Tikhonov正则化方法方法解决重力数据3D反演的同时,深入讨论了可进一步提高拟合误差的Extrapolation Tikhonov正则化方法(EXTR)的原理,并就其参数选择方法及各参数对拟合误差、迭代次数及反演结果的影响进行研究。常密度及变密度组合模型试算结果表明,与TR方法相比,EXTR方法不仅可以达到解释人员设定的先验拟合误差水平,在计算时间及迭代次数相应增加的前提下有更高的拟合精度;同时其反演结果也更加紧致,进一步改善了TR反演结果的发散性;并且其反演数据范围更贴近预设模型参数范围,模型特征与预设模型密度分布吻合较好。

A Composite Approach of Radar Echo Extrapolation Based on TREC Vectors in Combination with Model-Predicted Winds

Extending the lead time of precipitation nowcasts is vital to improvements in heavy rainfall warning, flood mitigation, and water resource management. Because the TREC vector （tracking radar echo by correlation） represents only the instantaneous trend of precipitation echo motion, the approach using derived echo motion vectors to extrapolate radar reflectivity as a rainfall forecast is not satisfactory if the lead time is beyond 30 minutes. For longer lead times, the effect of ambient winds on echo movement should be considered. In this paper, an extrapolation algorithm that extends forecast lead times up to 3 hours was developed to blend TREC vectors with model-predicted winds. The TREC vectors were derived from radar reflectivity patterns in 3 km height CAPPI （constant altitude plan position indicator） mosaics through a cross-correlation technique. The background steering winds were provided by predictions of the rapid update assimilation model CHAF （cycle of hourly assimilation and forecast）. A similarity index was designed to determine the vertical level at which model winds were applied in the extrapolation process, which occurs via a comparison between model winds and radar vectors. Based on a summer rainfall case study, it is found that the new algorithm provides a better forecast.

Application of Multi-Scale Tracking Radar Echoes Scheme in Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting

A new radar echo tracking algorithm known as multi-scale tracking radar echoes by cross-correlation （MTREC） was developed in this study to analyze movements of radar echoes at different spatial scales. Movement of radar echoes, particularly associated with convective storms, exhibits different characteristics at various spatial scales as a result of complex interactions among meteorological systems leading to the formation of convective storms. For the null echo region, the usual correlation technique produces zero or a very small magnitude of motion vectors. To mitigate these constraints, MTREC uses the tracking radar echoes by correlation （TREC） technique with a large ＂box＂ to determine the systematic movement driven by steering wind, and MTREC applies the TREC technique with a small ＂box＂ to estimate small-scale internal motion vectors. Eventually, the MTREC vectors are obtained by synthesizing the systematic motion and the small-scale internal motion. Performance of the MTREC technique was compared with TREC technique using case studies： the Khanun typhoon on 11 September 2005 observed by Wenzhou radar and a squall-line system on 23 June 2011 detected by Beijing radar. The results demonstrate that more spatially smoothed and continuous vector fields can be generated by the MTREC technique, which leads to improvements in tracking the entire radar reflectivity pattern. The new multi-scMe tracking scheme was applied to study its impact on the performance of quantitative precipitation nowcasting. The location and intensity of heavy precipitation at a 1-h lead time was more consistent with quantitative precipitation estimates using radar and rain gauges.