Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina

Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South China and Indochina(INCSC)in recent decades.Given the areas with large gross domestic product(GDP)in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming,understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(RX5day)and the maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)is critical for adaptation planning in this region.Based on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP5-8.5)are investigated.Results indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region,while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global warming.The changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region,rather than the change of GDP.If only considering the effect of climate change on GDP,the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Guangdong,and Hainan in South China,as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in Indochina.Thus,timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these regions.Moreover,from the sub-regional average viewpoint,over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.

Eco-physiological mechanisms of Caragana korshinskii Kom. adaptation to extreme drought stress: Leaf abscission and maintaining stem chloroplast integrity

In order to study the eco-physiological mechanisms of C. korshinskii adaptation to extreme drought stress, we investigated the variations of water content in soil, leaves, and stems, the chlorophyll a and b and the carotenoid content in leaves and stems, as well as changes of chloroplast ultrastructure in 2-year-old C. korshinskii specimens during a progressive soil drought process （by ceasing watering until all leaves were shed） and a subsequent rehydmtion process. During the dehydration process, the chlorophyll a and b and carotenoid contents in the leaves decreased, as did the carotenoid content in the stems. During the 4-day rehydration process, the chlorophyll a and b and carotenoid contents in the leaves and stems increased and gradually returned to normal levels. During ongoing drought stress, chloroplasts in the leaves broke away from cell walls and appeared in the center of cells. Under severe drought stress, the mesophyll ultrastmcture and chloroplast configuration in leaves were irreversibly disturbed, as mani- fested by the inner and outer membranes being destroyed; the thylakoid system disintegrated, the starch grain disappeared, and parts of cell tissue were dismantled into debris. However, the mesophyll ultrasWacture and chloroplast configuration in the stems remained complete. This indicates that C. korshinskii utilizes leaf abscission to reduce the surface area to avoid damage from ex- treme drought stress, and maintains chloroplast integrity and a considerable amount of chlorophyll to enable a rapid recovery of photosynthesis under the rehydration process.

Characterizing extreme drought and wetness in Guangdong,China using global navigation satellite system and precipitation data

As global temperature rises,the frequency of extreme climate events,e.g.,severe droughts and floods,has increased significantly and caused severe damage over the past years.To this regard,precipitation efficiency,a crucial meteorological parameter,could provide valuable insights for a better understanding of the patterns and characteristics of these extreme events.In this study,taking Guangdong province as an exemplary region,we first obtained long-term and high-resolution historical records of precipitation efficiency by integrating the observations from a dense network of Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)stations with precipitation data,and then characterized the extreme drought and wetness through climate indices.We found a distinct seasonal trend in precipitation efficiency in Guangdong,with annual fluctuations ranging from 10 to 25%.Notably,precipitation efficiency is higher in proximity to the Pearl River Delta Plain and gradually decreases towards the east and west.The occurrence of anomalous peaks and valleys in precipitation efficiency generally corresponds to dry and wet conditions,respectively.A total of 9 extreme wet events and 6 dry events occurred from January 2007 to May 2022,with durations from 3 to 6 months.Our results also demonstrated that both wet and dry frequencies exhibit an increasing trend with the expansion of the time scale,and the frequency of extreme events near the Pearl River Delta Plain surpasses that of other regions.Furthermore,the propagation time from meteorological anomalies to agricultural and hydrological anomalies is about 3 months.The periodic characteristics of meteorological anomalies are identified as the primary driver for other anomalous periodic patterns.Our work unveils the long-term dynamic behavior of precipitation efficiency,as well as the characteristics of extreme drought and wetness events in the regions characterized by intricate land–atmosphere interactions.

Impacts of Extreme Droughts on Ecosystem Water Use Efficiency Diverge between Forest and Grassland

Ecosystem-scale water use efficiency (WUE),as a quantification of the coupling between carbon and water cycle,determines whether vegetation could survive under severe drought stress.Nevertheless,how extreme droughts affect ecosystem-scale WUE and its difference among regions and biomes are still poorly understood.In this study,using data-oriented gridded products of gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET),we assessed the ecosystem WUE change during extreme drought years over China,and further compared drought impacts on WUE between forest and grassland ecosystems.We found a spatial heterogeneity of WUE change in response to extreme droughts across regions.Particularly,grassland WUE was substantially reduced concurrent with suppressed photosynthesis,while most of forest exhibited slightly decreased or even increased WUE under extreme droughts.In addition,we demonstrated that drought characteristics and environmental conditions modulated drought impacts on WUE.Temperature anomalies during droughts and leaf area were found to be the predominant factors driving WUE change for both forest and grassland.With increasing occurrence of compound dry and hot extremes,our results,therefore,would be an insightful supplement to the current understanding of the influence of extreme events on terrestrial ecosystems.

Distributional and behavioral responses of the wintering Oriental Storks to drought in China’s largest freshwater lake

Extreme droughts are increasing in frequency and severity globally as a result of climate change.Developing understanding of species’responses to drought is crucial for their conservation,especially in regions experi-encing increased aridity.Although numerous studies have investigated birds’responses to drought,the emphasis has primarily been on landbirds.Drought can significantly alter the wetland environments that waterbirds inhabit,but the response of waterbirds to drought remains understudied.In this study,we surveyed the distri-bution and behavior of Oriental Storks(Ciconia boyciana)in Poyang Lake,which is the largest freshwater lake in China.Results indicate that drought-induced catchment areas at the lowest water level limited the total popu-lation size of Oriental Storks in the sub-lakes.Sub-lakes with large catchment areas at the lowest water level demonstrated a capacity to support a larger population of wintering Oriental Storks.Over time,Oriental Storks exhibited a gradual concentration in Changhu Lake,characterized by larger catchments,after resource depletion in sub-lakes with smaller catchments.Additionally,the duration of Oriental Storks’vigilance and moving be-haviors decreased significantly compared with that observed before the drought.After the drought,Oriental Storks increased their foraging efforts,as evidenced by increased presence in deeper water and reaching their heads and necks into deeper water to forage,higher search rates,but lower foraging rates.In accordance with area-restricted search theory,reductions in habitat quality resulting from drought,including extensive fish die-offs,forced Oriental Storks to increase their foraging efforts.Sustaining a specific water area in sub-lakes during droughts can preserve resource availability,which is crucial for the conservation of Oriental Storks.Imple-menting measures such as water level control and micro-modification of lake bottoms in sub-lakes might mitigate the impact of drought on the piscivorous Oriental Storks.

Extreme drought changes in Southwest China from 1960 to 2009

Based on the daily data of temperature and precipitation of 108 meteorological stations in Southwest China from 1960 to 2009, we calculate the monthly and yearly surface humid indexes, as well as the extreme drought frequency. According to the data, the temporal and spatial characteristics of the extreme drought frequency in inter-annual, inter-decadal, summer monsoon period and winter monsoon period are analyzed. The results are indicated as follows. （1） In general, the southwestern Sichuan Basin, southern Hengduan Mountains, southern coast of Guangxi and northern Guizhou are the areas where the extreme drought frequency has significantly increased in the past 50 years. As for the decadal change, from the 1960s to the 1980s the extreme drought frequency has presented a decreasing trend, while the 1990s is the wettest decade and the whole area is turning wet. In the 2000s, the extreme drought frequency rises quickly, but the regional differences reduce. （2） During summer monsoon period, the extreme drought frequency is growing, which generally occurs in the high mountains around the Sichuan Basin, most parts of Guangxi and ＂the broom-shaped mountains＂ in Yunnan. It is distinct that the altitude has impacts on the ex- treme drought frequency; during winter monsoon period, the area is relatively wet and the extreme drought frequency is decreasing. （3） During summer monsoon period, the abrupt change is observed in 2003, whereas the abrupt change during winter monsoon period is in 1989. The annual extreme drought frequency variation is a superposition of abrupt changes during summer monsoon and winter monsoon periods. The departure sequence vibration of annual extreme drought frequency is quasi-5 years and quasi-12 years.

The Record-Breaking Extreme Drought in Yunnan Province, Southwest China during Spring-Early Summer of 2019 and Possible Causes

In spring and early summer of 2019, Yunnan Province experienced the most severe seasonal drought on record,with days of extreme drought area exceeding 10^5 km^2 far more than normal. Consistently, the precipitation in each month from February to June is over 30% less than normal, and about 50% less in the most severe drought period(April–June). The rainy season in Southwest China(SWC) started on the third pentad in June 2019, which is the second latest in history. The rainy season in Yunnan started on 24 June, which is the latest(29 days later than normal). On the contrary, the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) is abnormally early. The lag time between the start of the rainy season in SWC and the onset of the SCSSM in 2019 is 7 pentads, which is the largest since 1961, much longer than the climate mean(less than 1 pentad). The present study analyzes the possible reasons why the rainy season came extremely late and the drought disaster persisted and intensified after a much early SCSSM, at both seasonal and subseasonal timescales. The abnormally late onset of the rainy season and the second greatest potential evapotranspiration(PET) since 1981 are the direct reasons for the persistent drought. Statistical results show that the water vapor from southwest of Yunnan in April–June contributes more than that from the east at the seasonal scale. In April–June 2019, however, the southern branch trough(SBT) was abnormally weak, the large and strong anticyclonic wind anomaly prevailed over the Bay of the Bengal(BOB), and the meridional water vapor transport to Yunnan was weak. At the subseasonal scale, the weaker SBT lasted the longest, and the strong convection over the BOB came up late despite of an early onset of the SCSSM, which resulted in reduced low-level moisture convergence in Yunnan and development of drought prior to the SCSSM onset. From the onset of SCSSM to the start of rainy season in SWC, the SBT and meridional water vapor transport from the BOB were still weak, and the water vapor was mainly transported into the coastal area of South and Southeast China rather than Yunnan. After the start of the rainy season in SWC, the SBT was still weak. This led to less moisture transport in the westerlies to the west of Yunnan and the persistent extreme drought. Both the statistical results and case analysis indicate that the stronger Australian high in spring and early summer of 2019 was associated with the abnormally strong anticyclone over the BOB and the always weak SBT. In sum, the anomalous weakness of SBT played a critical role in the extreme drought occurrence and persistence in Yunnan of Southwest China in 2019.

Characteristics of Clustering Extreme Drought Events in China During 1961-2010

Based on the Multi-Scale Standardized Precipitation Index （MSPI）, extreme severe drought events in China during 1961-2010 were identified, and the seasonal, annual, and interdecadal variations of the cluster- ing extreme drought events were investigated by using the spatial point process theory. It is found that severe droughts present a trend of gradual increase as a result of the significant increase and clustering tendency of severe droughts in autumn. The periodicity analysis of the clustering extreme droughts in different seasons suggests that there is a remarkable interdecadal change in the occurrence of clustering extreme droughts in winter. Meanwhile, it is revealed that the clustering extreme drought events exhibit greatly different annual mean spatial distributions during 1961 2010, with scattered and concentrated clustering zones alternating on the decadal timescale. Furthermore, it is found that the decadal-mean spatial distributions of extreme drought events in summer are correlated out of phase with those of the rainy bands over China in the past 50 years, and a good decadal persistence exists between the autumn and winter extreme droughts, implying a salient feature of consecutive autunm-winter droughts in this 50-yr period. Compared with other regions of China, Southwest China bears the most prominent characteristic of clustering extreme droughts.

Differences and similarities in radial growth of Betula species to climate change

Betula platyphylla and Betula costata are important species in mixed broadleaved-Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis)forests.However,the specific ways in which their growth is affected by warm temperatures and drought remain unclear.To address this issue,60 and 62 tree-ring cores of B.platyphylla and B.costata were collected in Yichun,China.Using dendrochronological methods,the response and adaptation of these species to climate change were examined.A“hysteresis effect”was found in the rings of both species,linked to May–September moisture conditions of the previous year.Radial growth of B.costata was positively correlated with the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the precipitation from September to October of the previous year,and the relative humidity in October of the previous year.Growth of B.costata is primarily restricted by moisture conditions from September to October.In contrast,B.platyphylla growth is mainly limited by minimum temperatures in May–June of both the previous and current years.After droughts,B.platyphylla had a faster recovery rate compared to B.costata.In the context of rising temperatures since 1980,the correlation between B.platyphylla growth and monthly SPEI became positive and strengthened over time,while the growth of B.costata showed no conspicuous change.Our findings suggest that the growth of B.platyphylla is already affected by warming temperatures,whereas B.costata may become limited if warming continues or intensifies.Climate change could disrupt the succession of these species,possibly accelerating the succession of pioneer species.The results of this research are of great significance for understanding how the growth changes of birch species under warming and drying conditions,and contribute to understanding the structural adaptation of mixed broadleaved-Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis)forests under climate change.

Baseflow Separation and Its Response to Meteorological Drought in a Temperate Water-limited Basin,North China

Baseflow,a component of the total streamflow,plays a key role in maintaining aquatic habitats,particularly during extreme drought events.This study investigated baseflow response to a prolonged and extreme meteorological drought event in the Baiyangdian Basin(BYD basin),a temperate water-limited basin in North China.Applying a precipitation series,piecewise regression was used to determine this extreme meteorological drought event,while the Automatic Baseflow Identification Technique(ABIT)was used to estimate a recession parameter(α),which was used to isolate baseflow from total streamflow.Results showed that:1)annual precipitation exhibited significant decreasing trends(P<0.05)with an average change of–1.81 mm/yr^(2).The precipitation deficit revealed that the start and end date of the extreme meteorological drought event was from August 1996 to May 2011,respectively,persisting for a total of 178 months(roughly 15 yr);2)hydrological drought(including streamflow and baseflow)lagged behind meteorological drought while predictably persisting longer than extreme meteorological drought(i.e.,precipitation);and 3)baseflow decreased dramatically under meteorological drought at both seasonal and annual scales,resulting in significantly decreasing trends during drought periods.Findings from this study confirmed that hydrological events caused by extreme meteorological drought can alter the magnitude and duration of baseflow and total streamflow,which will have an inevitable influence on aquatic ecosystems.

A Comparative Analysis of Primary and Extreme Characteristics of Dry or Wet Status between Asia and North America

In this study, the Palmer Drought Severity Index （PDSI） was used to analyze the average and extreme dry/wet states of Asia and North America from 1953 to 2003. The results indicate that the two continents underwent drying trends during this period. Compared with North America, Asia showed more severe drought trends. However, more significant and regular seasonal variation for drought was found in North America. The driest regions in Asia were located in the northern region of China, Mongolia, and eastern mid-Siberian plateau. Most regions in central North America were relatively wetter than other regions. The northern and southwestern regions of North America, as well as the Atlantic and Pacific coastal areas, experienced the most drought during this period. A sharp increase of the drought area and the number of extreme drought events took place from 1997 to 2003 in both Asia and North America. Severe drought events were more likely to occur during the summer on both continents. Asia had the most extreme drought events during July, but North America reached its highest drought frequency from June to September. In Asia, a persistent increasing trend of extreme drought emerged throughout the studied period. However, a more complex evolution of drought emerged in North America： a decreasing trend appeared before the mid-1960s and an increasing trend appeared after the late 1970s. A relatively steady dry/wet status was observed between the mid-1960s and the late 1970s. The role of exceptional, extreme drought events with respect to the La Nin？a event was considered during 1997–2003.

Causes and Predictability of the 2021 Spring Southwestern China Severe Drought

In the spring of 2021,southwestern China(SWC)experienced extreme drought,accompanied by the highest seasonal-mean temperature record since 1961.This drought event occurred in the decaying phase of a La Niña event with negative geopotential height anomalies over the Philippine Sea,which is distinct from the historical perspective.Historically,spring drought over SWC is often linked to El Niño and strong western North Pacific subtropical high.Here,we show that the extreme drought in the spring of 2021 may be mainly driven by the atmospheric internal variability and amplified by the warming trend.Specifically,the evaporation increase due to the high temperature accounts for about 30%of drought severity,with the contributions of its linear trend portion being nearly 20%and the interannual variability portion being about 10%.Since the sea surface temperature forcing from the tropical central and eastern Pacific played a minor role in the occurrence of drought,it is a challenge for a climate model to capture the 2021 SWC drought beyond one-month lead times.

Extreme characteristics and causes of the drought event in the whole Yangtze River Basin in the midsummer of 2022

Due to their huge socio-economic impacts and complex formation causes,extreme and continuous drought events have become the focus and nodus of research in recent years.In the midsummer(July-August)of 2022,a severe drought event occurred in the whole Yangtze River Basin(YRB),China.During that period,the precipitation in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the YRB dropped over 40%less than the 1961-2021 climatic mean,which had never happened previously.Furthermore,the temperature was the highest during 1961-2022.The record-breaking magnitude of less rainfall and high temperature directly led to the continuous development of this extreme drought event.An atmospheric moisture budget analysis revealed that the YRB midsummer rainfall anomaly was dominated by the anomalous powerful vertical moisture advection,which was derived from the strongest descending motion over the whole YRB in the 2022 midsummer during 1981-2022.The western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)during the midsummer remained stronger,more westward and lasted longer than the climatic mean.As a result,the whole YRB was controlled by a positive geopotential height centre.Further evidence revealed that the anomalous subtropical zonal flow played a crucial role in inducing the extreme descent over the YRB.Moreover,the anomalous upper-tropospheric easterly flow over the YRB in 2022 is the strongest during 1981-2022,modulating the generation of the unprecedented descent anomaly over the YRB.The likelihood that an integrated connection of severe drought in East Asia and flood in West Asia and northwestern South Asia would increase when the extremely strong easterly anomalies in the upper troposphere emerged and induced descending adiabatic flow on the eastern sides of the Tibetan Plateau.The results of this study can provide scientific insights into the predictability of extreme drought events and provide ways to improve predictions.

Features of the Extremely Severe Drought in the East of Southwest China and Anomalies of Atmospheric Circulation in Summer 2006

The spatial-temporal features of the extremely severe drought and the anomalous atmospheric circulation in summer 2006 are analyzed based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,the characteristic circulation indices given by the National Climate Center of China,and the daily precipitation data of 20 stations in the east of Southwest China（ESC） from 1959 to 2006.The results show that the rainless period started from early June and ended in early September 2006 with a total of more than 80 days,and the rainfall was especially scarce from around 25 July to 5 September 2006.Precipitation for each month was less than normal,and analysis of the precipitation indices shows that the summer precipitation in 2006 was the least since 1959.The extremely severe drought in the ESC in summer 2006 was closely related to the persistent anomalies of the atmospheric circulation in the same period,i.e.,anomalies of mid-high latitude atmospheric circulation,western Pacific subtropical high（WPSH）,westerlies,South Asian high,lower-level flow,water vapor transport,vertical motion,and so on.Droughts usually occur when the WPSH lies anomalously northward and westward,or anomalously weak and eastward.The extreme drought in summer 2006 was caused by the former.When the WPSH turned stronger and shifted to the north and west of its normal position,and the South Asian high was also strong and lay eastward,downdrafts prevailed over the ESC and suppressed the water vapor transfer toward this area.At the same time,the disposition of the westerlies and the mid-high latitude circulation disfavored the southward invasion of cold air,which jointly resulted in the extremely severe drought in the ESC in summer 2006.The weak heating over the Tibetan Plateau and vigorous convective activities over the Philippine area were likely responsible for the strong WPSH and its northwestward shift in summer 2006.