Spatial Variation and Trend of Extreme Precipitation in Africa during 1981-2019 and Its Projected Changes at the End of 21st Century

This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment of projected changes in precipitation extremes using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios at the long-term period (2081-2100) of the 21st century. Furthermore, the study investigates potential mechanisms influencing precipitation extremes by correlating extreme precipitation indices with oceanic system indices, specifically Ni?o 3.4 for El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The findings revealed distinct spatial distributions in mean trends of extreme precipitation indices, indicating a tendency toward decreased extreme precipitation in North Africa, Sahel region, Central Africa and the Western part of South Africa. Conversely, West Africa, East Africa and the Eastern part of South Africa exhibit an inclination toward increased extreme precipitation. The changes in precipitation extreme indices indicate a general rise in both the severity and occurrence of extreme precipitation events under all scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Notably, our analysis projects a decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) in the far-future. Additionally, correlation analysis highlights significant correlation between above or below threshold rainfall fluctuation in East Africa and South Africa with oceanic systems, particularly ENSO and the IOD. Central Africa abnormal precipitation variability is also linked to ENSO with a significant negative correlation. These insights contribute valuable information for understanding and projecting the dynamics of precipitation extreme in Africa, providing a foundation for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the region.

Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation on the Loess Plateau of China facing the precipitation process

The preceding and succeeding precipitation(PSP)often act together with extreme precipitation(EP),in turn,causing floods,which is an objective component that is often overlooked with regard to summer flood hazards in the arid region of Northwest China.In this study,event-based extreme precipitation(EEP)was defined as continuous precipitation that includes at least one day of EP.We analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of four EEP types(front EEP,late EEP,balanced EEP,and single day EEP)across the Loess Plateau(LP)based on data acquired from 87 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2019.Precipitation on the LP basically maintained a spatial pattern of"low in the northwest region and high in the southeast region",and EP over the last 10 a increased significantly.The cumulative precipitation percentage of single day EEP was 34%and was dominant for 60 a,while the cumulative precipitation percentage of front,late,and balanced EEP types associated with PSP accounted for 66%,which confirms to the connotation of EEP.The cumulative frequencies of front and late EEP types were 23%and 21%,respectively,while the cumulative frequency of balanced EEP had the lowest value at only 13%.Moreover,global warming could lead to more single day EEP across the LP,and continuous EEP could increase in the northwestern region and decrease in the eastern region in the future.The concept of process-oriented EP could facilitate further exploration of disaster-causing processes associated with different types of EP,and provide a theoretical basis for deriving precipitation disaster chains and construction of disaster cluster characteristics.

Summer Extreme Precipitation in the Key Region of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway

The Sichuan-Tibet Railway,mainly located in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,is affected by summertime extreme precipitation(SEP).Using daily rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data for the summers of 1979-2020,the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of SEP in the key region of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway(28°-33°N,90°-105°E,hereafter KR)are revealed,and the mechanism for SEP amount(SEPA)variation in the KR is investigated.The results show that SEPA in the KR contributes nearly 30%to the total summer precipitation.Regional differences are evident in SEP,justifying thresholds higher in the plateau-dominated central-western KR(CWKR)and lower in the basindominated eastern KR(EKR).In addition,SEP in the CWKR is less intense but more frequent than SEP in the EKR.During 1979-2020,the SEPA in the KR increased slightly while the SEPA in the CWKR increased significantly and peaked in the last decade.When anticyclonic circulation(AC)anomalies dominate the 500 hPa pattern over the Bay of Bengal and Mongolia,the southerly flow and cyclonic shear over the southeastern plateau will be strengthened,favoring more SEPA in the CWKR.When an AC anomaly dominates the 500 hPa pattern over the Bohai Sea,the low-level easterly wind over the basin will be strengthened,favoring more SEPA in the EKR.The strengthening of the ascent,water vapor convergence,and convective instability is conducive to more SEPA in the KR.Our results deepen the understanding of the characteristics and the physical mechanisms responsible for extreme precipitation in the KR.

Multiscale Combined Action and Disturbance Characteristics of Pre-summer Extreme Precipitation Events over South China

The dominant frequency modes of pre-summer extreme precipitation events(EPEs)over South China(SC)between1998 and 2018 were investigated.The 67 identified EPEs were all characterized by the 3-8-d(synoptic)frequency band.However,multiscale combined modes of the synoptic and three low-frequency bands[10-20-d(quasi-biweekly,QBW);15-40-d(quasi-monthly,QM);and 20-60-d(intraseasonal)]accounted for the majority(63%)of the EPEs,and the precipitation intensity on the peak wet day was larger than that of the single synoptic mode.It was found that EPEs form within strong southwesterly anomalous flows characterized by either lower-level cyclonic circulation over SC or a deep trough over eastern China.Bandpass-filtered disturbances revealed the direct precipitating systems and their life cycles.Synoptic-scale disturbances are dominated by mid-high latitude troughs,and the cyclonic anomalies originate from downstream of the Tibetan Plateau(TP).Given the warm and moist climate state,synoptic-scale northeasterly flows can even induce EPEs.At the QBW and QM scales,the disturbances originate from the tropical Pacific,downstream of the TP,or mid-high latitudes(QBW only).Each is characterized by cyclonic-anticyclonic wave trains and intense southwesterly flows between them within a region of large horizontal pressure gradient.The intraseasonal disturbances are confined to tropical regions and influence SC by marginal southwesterly flows.It is concluded that low-frequency disturbances provide favorable background conditions for EPEs over SC and synoptic-scale disturbances ultimately induce EPEs on the peak wet days.Both should be simultaneously considered for EPE predictions over SC.

Moisture Transport and Associated Background Circulation for the Regional Extreme Precipitation Events over South China in Recent 40 Years

Based on the hourly precipitation data at 176 observational stations over south China and the hourly ERA5reanalysis data during the 40-yr period of 1981-2020, we analyzed the universal characteristics of moisture transport and their associated background circulations for four types of regional extreme precipitation events(REPEs) over south China. Main findings are shown as follow.(i) The wind that transported moisture for the REPEs over south China featured a notable diurnal variation, which was consistent with the variations of the precipitation.(ii) Four types of REPEs could be determined, among which the southwest type(SWT) and the southeast type(SET) accounted for ~92%and ~5.7%, respectively, ranking the first and second, respectively.(iii) Trajectory analyses showed that the air particles of the SWT-REPEs had the largest specific humidity and experienced the most intense ascending motion, and therefore their precipitation was the strongest among the four types.(iv) South China was dominated by notable moisture flux convergence for the four types of REPEs, but their moisture transport was controlled by different flow paths.(v)Composite analyses indicated that the background circulation of the four types of REPEs showed different features,particularly for the intensity, location and coverage of a western Pacific subtropical high. For the SWT-REPEs, their moisture transport was mainly driven by a lower-tropospheric strong southwesterly wind band in the low-latitude regions. Air particles for this type of REPEs mainly passed over the Indochina Peninsula and South China Sea. For the SET-REPEs, their moisture transport was mainly steered by a strong low-tropospheric southeasterly wind northeast of a transversal trough. Air particles mainly passed over the South China Sea for this type of REPEs.

Climatic Indices’ Analysis on Extreme Precipitation for Tanzania Synoptic Stations

Like other countries in East Africa, Tanzania has been affected by extreme precipitation incidences both socially and economically. Determining the trend and variability features of extreme precipitation in the country is crucial. This study used data from 28 meteorological stations for 1981-2020 period to give an annual and seasonal analysis of the patterns of 10 ETCCDI’s extreme precipitation indices over the regions. At annual scale, the results showed that increasing trends had high frequency percentage than the decreasing ones, collecting about 76% in total. The decreasing trend was approximately 24%, and most of the stations with increasing percentage in trend are concentrated in Northern coast, Central, West, North-eastern highlands and Lake Victoria Basin. Most of the stations depicted negative trend are concentrated over Southern region. This highlights that extreme precipitation events have increased over the country for the period 1981-2020. At seasonal scale, during October to December (OND);the patterns of extreme precipitation climatic indices except R99p, showed positive significant increasing trend over Lake Victoria Basin and some Western parts of the country. In general, spatial patterns indicate decrease of precipitation over most parts of the country during OND. The seasonal average time series depicted non-significant positive trend during March to April (MAM) season, except for Consecutive Wet Days (CWD) which showed non-significant decreasing trend. Over the highest mountain in Africa, Kilimanjaro;the study has revealed significant decrease in Annual total-wet Precipitation (PRCPTOT), the number of heavy (very heavy) days of precipitation R10 mm (R20 mm) and Consecutive Wet Days (CWD) during MAM season. While the maximum one-day precipitation amount (RX1 day) was observed to decrease significantly over the Mountain during OND season. The result is very important in risk assessment and preparedness perspective in planning climate change mitigation and adaptations for different sectors like Tourism, Agriculture, Water and Energy.

Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Weather Process in Henan during July 17-22, 2021

To learn more about the unusually heavy rainfall in central China, this research uses the monthly climatic data, weather map information and US NCEP re-analysis data to analyze the atmospheric circulation, precipitation and weather situation of this extreme precipitation weather process in Henan during July 17-22, 2021. The results show that the precipitation process is affected by the joint action of the subtropical high, the continental high, the low vortex, the low-level jet, the typhoon “In-fa” and other multi-scale systems in the middle and low latitudes. This precipitation process was also affected by the topographic uplift and blocking of Taihang Mountain and Funiu Mountain.

The Spatial-Temporal Change of Extreme Precipitation in the Southwest Region of Zhejiang Province during 1953-2022

Based on the daily precipitation from 17 meteorological stations in the southwest of Zhejiang from 1953 to 2022, 11 extreme precipitation indices were calculated, and the temporal-spatial characteristic of extreme precipitation were analyzed. The results indicate that 1) Except for the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), all the other extreme precipitation indices had low values in the northeast of the study area and high value around Liuchun Lake;2) CDD had a decreasing trend in most part of study area, while the other indices were on the rise, especially at Suichang (SC) and Tonglu (TL) stations, the change was significant (p 0.05);3) The annual variation showed that CDD declined with the trend of 0.83 d/10a, however, all the other indices increased, especially after 2000, the increase was more obvious. In general, the extreme precipitation mount, the extreme precipitation days showed an increasing trend, drought was less likely to happen, and the possibility of heavy precipitation is less, however, at some individual station such as SC, heavy precipitation and storm is much more likely to occur.

Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Summer Extreme Precipitation in South China and Response of Tropical Ocean

In the study, the summer extreme precipitation in South China is divided into early rainy season (MJ) and late rainy season (JA). The percentile method (95%) is used to define the extreme precipitation threshold. Based on the international general definition method of extreme precipitation threshold: percentile method (95%), the extreme precipitation thresholds in flood season before and after South China are defined respectively. The total amount and frequency of extreme precipitation in flood season before and after 1979-2014 are calculated in this paper. The change trend of the two indicators is basically the same, and the two indicators have obvious interannual variation and an upward trend. According to the results of wavelet analysis of extreme precipitation frequency, the frequency of extreme precipitation in the first flood season mainly has a period of 3 - 5 years, while the frequency of extreme precipitation in the later flood season has a significant period of 6 - 8 years. The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation before and after the flood season shows that the extreme precipitation in the former flood season is mainly distributed in the central part of Guangdong, the northeast of Guangxi and the western part of Fujian, and the extreme precipitation in the latter flood season mainly occurs in the southern coastal area. The results show that there are different tropical SST regions affecting the extreme precipitation in South China. The former flood season is mainly the tropical Indian Ocean warm SST, and the latter flood season is mainly the tropical Pacific warm SST. The tropical Indian Ocean SST stimulates the anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea, which brings the southwest warm and humid air flow into South China, resulting in the increase of extreme precipitation in the first flood season of South China;the tropical Pacific SST stimulates the cyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea, which reduces the water vapor outflow caused by the seasonal northward jump of the subtropical high in South China, resulting in the increase of extreme precipitation in the later flood season of South China.

Characteristics and future projections of summer extreme precipitation in Sichuan Province, China

Based on the precipitation data observed by stations and data simulated by 23 CMIP5 models,the features and future changes of summer(Jun-JulAug)extreme precipitation events in Sichuan Province of China were analysed.We found that the total precipitation(RSum),extreme precipitation threshold(Threshold90),extreme precipitation(TR90),extreme precipitation percentage(TR90 pct)and extreme precipitation intensity(TR90 str)decreased from the southeast to the northwest in Sichuan Province,reflecting the differences between eastern Sichuan(ESC,basins)and western Sichuan(WSC,mountains).Compared with the observations,most of the CMIP5 models showed that there were wet biases in WSC and an unclear bias pattern in ESC for the RSum,Threshold90,TR90,and TR90 str.However,the extreme precipitation days(ND90)and TR90 pct values simulated by the models were generally overestimated and underestimated,respectively.Compared with the historical period,most models showed obvious increases in the TR90 and TR90 pct in the 21 century,while the characteristics of Rsum,ND90,and TR90 str were inconspicuous.Compared with the mid-21 st century,the extreme precipitation in the late-21 st century exhibited a certain degree of increase.Even during the same period,the results of RCP8.5 were higher than those of RCP4.5,especially for the ND90,TR90,and TR90 pct.

NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN CHINA UNDER A1B SCENARIO

The regional climate model(RegCM3), developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics and nested in one-way mode within the latest version of Community Climate System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, is used to conduct a set of experiments to examine its capability of climate simulation for the past 50 years and to explore possible changes in extreme precipitation(EP) in the next 100 years under the A1 B scenario. Compared with the observation from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation, RegCM3 reasonably reproduces the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and EP in eastern China. Based on the present-day analysis, this study examines the changes in monsoonal precipitation over eastern China in mid- and late-21st century relative to the reference period of 1970-1999. It is found that the precipitation will increase over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and decrease over coastal areas to its south, especially in late-21st century. The various indices reflecting extreme events showed that the EP will enhance 10%-15% over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and areas to its north, and weaken over the areas to its south. The summer monsoon will strengthen and shift northwards under SERS A1 B, bringing more water vapor and energy from the Indian Ocean and South China Sea for precipitation and eventually more precipitation over northern China.

Fidelity of the APHRODITE Dataset in Representing Extreme Precipitation over Central Asia

Using rain-gauge-observation daily precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network(V3.25)and the Chinese Surface Daily Climate Dataset(V3.0),this study investigates the fidelity of the AHPRODITE dataset in representing extreme precipitation,in terms of the extreme precipitation threshold value,occurrence number,probability of detection,and extremal dependence index during the cool(October to April)and warm(May to September)seasons in Central Asia during 1961–90.The distribution of extreme precipitation is characterized by large extreme precipitation threshold values and high occurrence numbers over the mountainous areas.The APHRODITE dataset is highly correlated with the gauge-observation precipitation data and can reproduce the spatial distributions of the extreme precipitation threshold value and total occurrence number.However,APHRODITE generally underestimates the extreme precipitation threshold values,while it overestimates the total numbers of extreme precipitation events,particularly over the mountainous areas.These biases can be attributed to the overestimation of light rainfall and the underestimation of heavy rainfall induced by the rainfall distribution–based interpolation.Such deficits are more evident for the warm season than the cool season,and thus the biases are more pronounced in the warm season than in the cool season.The probability of detection and extremal dependence index reveal that APHRODITE has a good capability of detecting extreme precipitation,particularly in the cool season.

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Summer Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Possible Causalities

In the past decades, with the increasing frequency of extreme weather and climate events, the world has suffered huge losses. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and China regional precipitation data provided by China Meteorological Administration, the extreme precipitation events in eastern China are defined by relative threshold method, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of summer extreme precipitation in eastern China from 1961 to 2016 are analyzed by empirical orthogonal function (EOF), and the reverse distribution of extreme precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and south China by Indian Ocean warm pool is revealed influence. The results show that the total amount and frequency of extreme precipitation in summer are concentrated in the Yangtze River Basin and south China. EOF1 decomposition of extreme precipitation reflects the interannual oscillation characteristics of reverse spatial distribution in the Yangtze River Basin and south China. The time series corresponding to EOF1 has significant interannual characteristics. The Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern is a circulation system that significantly affects the spatial-temporal pattern of extreme precipitation in southern China. When the PJ pattern is in the positive phase, the anticyclone controls the south China region, and restrains the convective activity, which results in the decrease of extreme precipitation. The anomalous southwest wind to the south of 30°N and the anomalous northerly wind to the north of 30°N converge in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Combining with the sufficient water vapor carried by the anomalous southwest airflow at the edge of anticyclone, it is more conducive to the formation of extreme precipitation. The east propagating Kelvin wave in the warm pool of the Indian Ocean is an important reason for the formation of the PJ pattern and finally the formation of extreme precipitation anomalies in China.

Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Events over Central Plateau of Iran

This paper describes the results of an analysis of extreme rainfall events in the central plateau of Iran. To study the extreme events, daily records of eighteen stations’ rainfalls in the region for different initial dates up to 2005 gathered from the bureau of meteorology. Then, the extreme rainfall threshold was calculated for each individual station using the statistical index of Gamble type I. Lastly, 22 mm was determined as the extreme rainfall value for the entire stations, and eventually 17 out of 169 extreme precipitation events were extracted in accordance with three factors including a) days with precipitation in not less than 50% of the stations, b) maximum rainfall is 22 mm or more in at least one of the stations, and c) mean precipitation of the basin is more than 3 mm. In the next step to analyze the synoptic features, the relevant meteorological data i.e. relative vorticity, geopotential height, sea level pressure, u and v wind components, relative humidity, vertical velocity, and precipitable water content at multiple levels of the atmosphere were examined from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset. The synoptic findings indicate that two patterns of deep trough and high ridge of the eastern Mediterranean were responsible for making the heavy precipitation events over the central plateau of Iran. The most and severest rainfall events occurred via deep tough pattern, which covered 76% of days with extreme precipitations during the examined period. Furthermore, the results suggest that the main moisture resources, which identified by HYSPLIT model’s outputs and moisture convergence/divergence zones for the rainy systems in the first pattern (deep trough) including Persian Gulf, Oman Sea, Indian Ocean, and Red Sea, while for the second pattern (high ridge) Persian Gulf and Red Sea play a significant role in feeding the storms in the central regions of Iran. Moreover, the southward movement of Polar Vortex is also considered as those important factors to produce extreme precipitation events over the central plateau of Iran. In general, the HYSPLIT trajectories model’s outputs confirmed the observed synoptic features in particular for the systems’ moisture feeding discussed in the patterns.

COMPLEX NETWORK OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN EAST ASIA

In order to study the spatial structure and dynamical mechanism of extreme precipitation in East Asia, a corresponding climate network is constructed by employing the method of event synchronization. It is found that the area of East Asian summer extreme precipitation can be separated into two regions: one with high area-weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation mostly during the active phase of the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM),and another one with low area-weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation during both the active and the retreating phase of the EASM. Besides, a new way for the prediction of extreme precipitation is also developed by constructing a directed climate networks. The simulation accuracy in East Asia is 58% with a 0-day lead, and the prediction accuracy is 21% and average 12% with a 1-day and an n-day(2≤n≤10) lead, respectively. Compared to the normal EASM year, the prediction accuracy is low in weak years and high in strong years, which is relevant to the differences of correlations and extreme precipitation rates in different EASM situations. Recognizing and indentifying these effects is good for understanding and predicting extreme precipitation in East Asia.

Variation characteristics of extreme precipitation from 1955 to 2015 in Shijiazhuang City,Hebei Province

In order to give guidelines for the execution of countermeasures in response to extreme precipitation events.the tempo-spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitationare are analyzed by 11 extreme precipitation indexes during the past 60 years(1955-2015)in Shijiazhuang City.The results showed that the extreme precipitation of Shijiazhuang City generally showed a downward trend in the past 60 years,and the wet day precipitation(PRCPTOT)exhibited the most obvious downward trend.There were significant spatial differences in the trend of extreme precipitation indexes.According to the spatial superposition of the historical trend of extreme precipitation index and Hurst index,the extreme precipitation intensity indexes in most areas of Shijiazhuang city will continue to decline in the future,and the extreme precipitation intensity indexes in some central areas will continue to rise.

Impact of Extreme Precipitation Intensity on Tea Production in the North-East of Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a flood prone country where precipitation amount is irregular but sometimes extreme. Among the climatic parameters, precipitation is assumed as one of the vital indicators of ongoing climate change scenarios and is equally important for tea production. In this study, 7 and 9 tea estates of Sylhet and Sreemangal were selected to analyze tea production in relation to extreme precipitation intensity. Precipitation patterns namely 90th, 95th and 99th percentile were analyzed to find out the contribution of extreme precipitation and tea production. To attain the objectives, 3 hourly, daily, monthly, and total precipitation data from 1971 to 2014 were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department and Bangladesh Agricultural Development Board. Tea production data were collected from Bangladesh Tea Board, Sylhet. To find out extreme level of precipitation 90th, 95th, 99th percentile precipitation days were identified and analyzed. The analyses show that 1974, 1976, 1977, 1993, 1988, 1990, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2004 were extreme precipitation years. The average precipitation of Sylhet was higher in 2000 than in 1992 and 2014. In Sreemangal, extreme precipitation was higher in 2014 than in 1992 and 2000. For both the regions, tea production was higher in 2000 and lower in 1992 and 2014. The result shows that more extreme precipitation was responsible for higher amount of tea production. The results suggest that extreme precipitation intensity was one of the responsible factors for higher amount of tea production in Sylhet and Sreemangal.

Summer extreme precipitation patterns and synoptic-scale circulation precursors over the Tibetan Plateau

In the context of global warming,the extreme summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has changed significantly.In this study,the summer(June–August)extreme precipitation on the TP was classified into three spatial types by applying the K-means clustering method to the Third Pole Region long time-series high-resolution(1/30°)precipitation dataset(TPHi Pr,1979–2020).The characteristics of the circulation anomalies and precursors corresponding to the extreme precipitation on the TP in summer during 1979–2020 were investigated.The results showed that the summer extreme precipitation of the TP can be categorized into northwestern(NW),southeastern(SE),and southern Himalayan(HS)types based on extreme precipitation thresholds.The NW and SE types are mainly influenced by anomalous signals in the mid-to-high latitude regions upstream of them,whereas the HS type is controlled by the localized subtropical anomalous circulation.On the 8th day before the onset of the NW type,an anomalous cyclone was observed in the western Atlantic Ocean(60°W,50°N),which triggered the west-to-east quasi-latitudinal propagation of Rossby waves.On the onset day of the NW type,the upper troposphere showed positive-negative-positive geopotential height anomalies along the latitudinal 40°N from the Caspian Sea,the western part of Xinjiang,to the northeastern TP.Moisture entered from the Arabian Sea along the southeastern edge of the anomalous cyclone on the southwestern TP and converged in the northwestern TP.Compared to the NW type,the precursors of the SE type appeared at higher latitudes and were more intense.On the 8th day before the onset of the SE type,an anomalous cyclone occurred near Greenland(60°W,70°N)and excited Rossby waves propagating southeastward.On the onset day of the SE type,the upper troposphere showed negative-positive-negative geopotential height anomalies across Eurasia from the Ural Mountains and the Iranian Plateau to the northern TP in the northwest-southeast direction and entered the southeastern TP from the Bay of Bengal along the southeastern edge of the anomalous cyclone in the southern TP.On the 6th day before the onset of the HS type,the anomalously high pressure in the middle and lower layers of the low-latitude region extended westward,and a significant anticyclonic anomalous circulation occurred on the southern TP on the onset day of the HS type,enabling the delivery of moisture from the Bay of Bengal to the southern foothills of the Himalayas.Additionally,an anomalous cyclone perched in the northeastern TP at a geopotential height of 200 h Pa strengthened westerly winds in the southern TP and contributed to the maintenance of the anticyclonic system on the southern TP.

Population amount risk assessment of extreme precipitation-induced landslides based on integrated machine learning model and scenario simulation

In this study,the future landslide population amount risk(LPAR)is assessed based on integrated machine learning models(MLMs)and scenario simulation techniques in Shuicheng County,China.Firstly,multiple MLMs were selected and hyperparameters were optimized,and the generated 11 models were crossintegrated to select the best model to calculate landslide susceptibility;by calculating precipitation for different extreme precipitation recurrence periods and combining the susceptibility results to assess the landslide hazard.Using the town as the basic unit,the exposure and vulnerability of the future landslide population under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)scenarios in each town were assessed,and then combined with the hazard to estimate the LPAR in 2050.The results showed that the integrated model with the optimized random forest model as the combination strategy had the best comprehensive performance in susceptibility assessment.The distribution of hazard classes is similar to susceptibility,and with an increase in precipitation,the low-hazard area and high-hazard decrease and shift to medium-hazard and very high-hazard classes.The high-risk areas for future landslide populations in Shuicheng County are mainly concentrated in the three southwestern towns with high vulnerability,whereas the northern towns of Baohua and Qinglin are at the lowest risk class.The LPAR increased with the intensity of extreme precipitation.The LPAR differs significantly among the SSPs scenarios,with the lowest in the“fossil-fueled development(SSP5)”scenario and the highest in the“regional rivalry(SSP3)”scenario.In summary,the landslide susceptibility model based on integrated machine learning proposed in this study has a high predictive capability.The results of future LPAR assessment can provide theoretical guidance for relevant departments to cope with future socioeconomic development challenges and make corresponding disaster prevention and mitigation plans to prevent landslide risks from a developmental perspective.

Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs

Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes.The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Global Climate Models(GCMs).The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,student's t-test,and probability density function approach.Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed,including wet days(RR1mm),heavy precipitation days(RR10mm),very heavy precipitation days(RR20mm),severe precipitation days(RR50mm),consecutive wet days(CWD),consecutive dry days(CDD),maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5day),and simple daily intensity index(SDII).The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21^(st) century(i.e.,near future(NF;2021-2060)and far future(FF;2061-2100))under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21^(st) century(2061-2100).Moreover,from the results of multimodel ensemble means(MMEMs),extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm,RR10mm,RR20mm,CWD,and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part.The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent(intense)occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD.The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding,soil erosion,water resource management,food security,and agriculture development.