Spatiotemporal variation of drought characteristics in the Huang- Huai-Hai Plain, China under the climate change scenario

Understanding the potential drought characteristics under climate change is essential to reduce vulnerability and establish adaptation strategies, especially in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain （3H Plain）, which is a major grain production area in China. In this paper, we investigated the variations in drought characteristics （drought event frequency, duration, severity, and intensity） for the past 50 years （1961-2010） and under future scenarios （2010-2099）, based on the observed meteorological data and the Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） 8.5 scenario, respectively. First, we compared the applicability of three climatic drought indices： the standardized precipitation index （SPI）, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index based on the Penman-Monteith equation （SPEI-PM） and the same index based on the Thornthwaite equation （SPEI-TH） to correlate the recorded agricultural drought areas. Then, we analyzed the drought characteristics using ＇run theory＇ for both historical and the future RCP 8.5 scenario based on the best performing index. Correlation analyses between drought indices and agricultural drought areas showed that SPEI-PM performed better than SPI and SPEI-TH in the 3H Plain. Based on the results of SPEI-PM, drought risks including duration, severity and intensity during 1961-2010 showed an decreasing trend. However, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is expected to rise in frequency, duration, severity, and intensity from 2010-2099, although drought components during the 2010-2039 are predicted to be milder compared with historical conditions. This study highlights that the estimations for atmospheric evaporative demand would create differences in the prediction of long-term drought trends by different drought indices. The results of this study can help inform researchers and local policy makers to establish drought management strategies.

Spatio-temporal variations in trends of vegetation and drought changes in relation to climate variability from 1982 to 2019 based on remote sensing data from East Asia

Studying the significant impacts on vegetation of drought due to global warming is crucial in order to understand its dynamics and interrelationships with temperature,rainfall,and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).These factors are linked to excesses drought frequency and severity on the regional scale,and their effect on vegetation remains an important topic for climate change study.East Asia is very sensitive and susceptible to climate change.In this study,we examined the effect of drought on the seasonal variations of vegetation in relation to climate variability and determined which growing seasons are most vulnerable to drought risk;and then explored the spatio-temporal evolution of the trend in drought changes in East Asia from 1982 to 2019.The data were studied using a series of several drought indexes,and the data were then classified using a heat map,box and whisker plot analysis,and principal component analysis.The various drought indexes from January to August improved rapidly,except for vegetation health index(VHI)and temperature condition index(TCI).While these indices were constant in September,they increased again in October,but in December,they showed a descending trend.The seasonal and monthly analysis of the drought indexes and the heat map confirmed that the East Asian region suffered from extreme droughts in 1984,1993,2007,and 2012among the study years.The distribution of the trend in drought changes indicated that more severe drought occurred in the northwestern region than in the southeastern area of East Asia.The drought tendency slope was used to describe the changes in drought events during 1982–2019 in the study region.The correlations among monthly precipitation anomaly percentage(NAP),NDVI,TCI,vegetation condition index(VCI),temperature vegetation drought index(TVDI),and VHI indicated considerably positive correlations,while considerably negative correlations were found among the three pairs of NDVI and VHI,TVDI and VHI,and NDVI and TCI.This ecological and climatic mechanism provides a good basis for the assessment of vegetation and drought-change variations within the East Asian region.This study is a step forward in monitoring the seasonal variation of vegetation and variations in drought dynamics within the East Asian region,which will serve and contribute to the better management of vegetation,disaster risk,and drought in the East Asian region.

Asymmetrical Change Characteristics of Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in Shangqiu in Recent 50 Years

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal and spatial variation characteristics of temperature in Shangqiu City during 1961-2010.[Method] Based on temperature data in eight meteorological stations of Shangqiu during 1961-2010,by using trend analysis method,the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of annual average temperature,annual average maximum and minimum temperatures,annual extreme maximum and minimum temperatures,daily range of annual average temperature in Shangqiu City were analyzed.M-K method was used to determine mutation year of temperature.[Result] The annual average temperature,annual average minimum temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature respectively rose at 0.122,0.255 and 0.488 ℃/10 a.The variation trend of annual average maximum temperature wasn’t obvious.The daily range of annual average temperature and annual extreme maximum temperature respectively declined at-0.217 and-0.292 ℃/10 a.Seen from spatial distribution,the increase amplitudes of annual average temperature,annual average minimum temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature were all large in the east and small in the west.The decrease amplitude of daily range of annual average temperature was large in the east and small in the west.The decrease amplitude of annual extreme maximum temperature was large in the west and small in the east.The annual average maximum temperature had trends of increase and decrease.The annual average temperature,annual average minimum temperature and daily range of annual average temperature all mutated in 1997.The annual average maximum temperature didn’t have obvious mutation point.The annual extreme maximum temperature mutated in 1973.The annual extreme minimum temperature respectively mutated in 1989 and 1999.[Conclusion] The research played important guidance significances in adjustment of agricultural production structure,regional climate planning,reasonably using climate resource and replying climate change in Shangqiu City.

Intermonthly Difference of Multi-attribute Characteristics of Rainstorm in China Based on Spatial-temporal Differentiation

Based on the daily precipitation data of 545 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2016, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days in different months of China were diagnosed from three aspects: climatic characteristics, variation trend and interannual variation. The results showed that:(1) Rainstorm rainfall and rainy days in different months of China from 1961 to 2016 had similar spatial characteristics in corresponding months. From January to July, the high-value areas of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days gradually expanded from southeast coast to northwest inland, but mainly distributed in the east area of Hu Huanyong Line. From August to December, it shrank from northwest to southeast coastal areas. Rainstorm rainfall and rainy days were less distributed in different months in the west area of Hu Huanyong Line;(2) From 1961 to 2016, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of rainstorm rainfall in different months in China were basically consistent with that of rainy days. May to August was the most significant month for the variation trend of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days in China. It mainly distributed in the southeast monsoon area, and was mainly increasing trend. The trend of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days in northwest China changed slightly in different months;(3) The interannual variability of rainstorm rainfall in different months in China from 1961 to 2016 was similar to that of rainy days. The fluctuation characteristics from April to October were larger in the northern region. The southern region fluctuated greatly from November to December in January to March. With the development of the month, the high-value areas with large daily fluctuations of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days gradually expanded from southeast to northwest, northeast and southwest, and the fluctuations in southeast tended to decrease, then shrank from northwest, northeast and southwest to southeast, with the increasing fluctuations in southeast. The study has certain reference significance for flood control and disaster reduction and water resources planning and utilization.

Advances in the Research of Yunnan’s Arid Climate and Extreme Drought

With the global climate change, the extreme drought was increasing. From 2009 autumn to 2010 spring, a hundred-year drought happened in Yunnan province, which caused great local economic losses and widespread attention. So many researches about Yunnan drought were studied. The climatic characteristics of the drought over Yunnan are studied by analyzing the spatial and temporal distribution of some meteorological factors such as precipitation, temperature and sunlight, etc. Some researchers studied the formation mechanism of the drought events in Yunnan. In this paper, by investigating lots of related documents, we had a summarization and commentary about the recent study achievements of Yunnan drought and tried to offer reference to the study on the Yunnan drought in the future.

Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Gale Days in China from 1961 to 2016

Based on data of hail days at 2 481 stations during 1961-2016,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and periodic variation of gale days in China and seven geographical regions were analyzed by using a variety of statistical methods. The results showed that: in time,the gale days in China and the seven geographical areas all showed a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2016. In the Tibet( Southeast China and Southwest China) region,the annual number of single-station gale days was the most( least),but the decrease ratio was the least( most). In the significance oscillation period,it was 14 years in the whole country,60 years in Northeastern China,Northern China and east part of Northwestern China,7,14 and 60 years in the west of Northwestern China,Southwestern China and Southeastern China,7 and 60 years in the Tibet region. The mutation of gale days generally occurred in 1991,1993,1989,1997,1986,1997,1992 and 1984 in the whole country,Northeastern China,Northern China,east part of Northwestern China,west part of Northwestern China,Tibet,Southwestern China and Southeastern China,but only the east of Northwestern China and Tibet region passed 0. 05 of significance test. In space,the annual average gale days showed the pattern of southeast low and northwest high in China from 1961 to 2016. The annual average gale days were more abundant in the central and western Tibet,the southern Qinghai,eastern Xinjiang,western Sichuan,northern Inner Mongolia and northern Gansu. These regions were dominated by positive anomaly in the 1970 s and the 1980 s,but negative in other decades. Annual gale days in most regions of China showed a decreasing trend during 1961-2016,and fluctuation presented high in east region and low in west region beside " Hu Huanyong line".

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of a Temperate-Glacier's Active-Layer Temperature and Its Responses to Climate Change: A Case Study of Baishui Glacier No. 1, Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Based on the historical documents and measured data from the active-layer temperature （ALT） at A, B and C locations （4 670, 4 720 and 4 770 m a.s.l.） on Baishui Glacier No. 1, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, this paper analyzed spatial-temporal characteristics of ALT and its relationship with air temperature, and revealed the response of the active layer ice temperature towards climate change in the monitoring period. The results showed that the influence of air temperature on the active-layer ice temperature had a hysteresis characteristic on the upper of ablation zone and the lag period in- creased gradually with the altitude elevating. The decrease amplitude of ALT in the accumulation pe- riod was far below its increase magnitude in the ablation period. At the same time, the mean glacier ice temperatures at 10 m depth （T10） in A, B and C profile were obviously higher than most of glaciers previously studied. Measured data also showed that the mean ALT increased by 0.24℃ in 0.5-8.5 m depth of the C profile during 28 years from July 11, 1982 to July 10, 2009.

Effects of temperature and precipitation on drought trends in Xinjiang, China

The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.

The climate change variations in the northern Greater Khingan Mountains during the past centuries

The Greater Khingan Mountains （Daxinganling） are China＇s important ecological protective screen and also the region most sensitive to climate changes. To gain an in-depth understanding and reveal the climate change characteristic in this high-latitude, cold and data-insufficient region is of great importance to maintaining ecological safety and corre- sponding to global climate changes. In this article, the annual average temperature, precipi- tation and sunshine duration series were firstly constructed using tree-ring data and the me- teorological observation data. Then, using the climate tendency rate method, moving-t-testing method, Yamamoto method and wavelet analysis method, we have investigated the climate changes in the region during the past 307 years. Results indicate that, since 1707, the annual average temperature increased significantly, the precipitation increased slightly and the sun- shine duration decreased, with the tendency rates of 0.06~C/10a, 0.79 mm/10a and -5.15 h/10a, respectively （P〈~0.01）. Since the 21 st century, the period with the greatest increase of the annual average temperature （also with the greatest increase of precipitation） corresponds to the period with greatest decrease of sunshine duration. Three sudden changes of the an- nual average temperature and sunshine duration occurred in this period while two sudden changes of precipitation occurred. The strong sudden-change years of precipitation and sunshine duration are basically consistent with the sudden-change years of annual average temperature, suggesting that in the mid-1860s, the climatic sudden change or transition really existed in this region. In the time domain, the climatic series of this region exhibit obvious local variation characteristics. The annual average temperature and sunshine duration exhibit the periodic variations of 25 years while the precipitation exhibits a periodic variation of 20 years. Based on these periodic characteristics, one can infer that in the period from 2013 to 2030, the temperature will be at a high-temperature stage, the precipitation will be at an abundant-precipitation stage and the sunshine duration will be at an less-sunshine stage. In terms of spatial distribution, the leading distribution type of the annual average temperature in this region shows integrity, i.e：, it is easily higher or lower in the whole region; and the second distribution type is more （or less） in the southwest parts and less （or more） in the northeast parts. Precipitation and sunshine duration exhibit complex spatial distribution and include four spatial distribution types. The present study can provide scientific basis for the security in- vestigation of homeland, ecological and water resources as well as economic development programming in China＇s northern borders.

基于CMIP6的气候变化下汉江流域气象干旱特征研究

为明晰气候变化下汉江流域气象干旱的演变特征,选取CMIP6中10个气候模式,考虑每个气候模式历史情景与4种共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景,基于标准化降水蒸散指数分析了汉江流域气象干旱特征的变化规律。结果表明:未来汉江流域年降水量与潜在蒸散量最大差值逐渐增大,增长速率为0.92~2.40 mm/a,最小差值在不同SSPs情景下变化趋势不同,在SSP1-2.6和SSP3-7.0情景下逐渐缩小,而在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下持续增大;历史情景下流域干旱累计时长表现为东西短、中部长的特点,而未来流域中下游干旱累计时长减小,上游略有增大,且干旱在年内发生时间相对提前;未来低重现期干旱烈度不会发生明显变化,但极端干旱烈度将显著上升,100年一遇干旱烈度增长幅度为7.1%~25.6%。

安徽省极端降水演变规律及与气候因子遥相关研究

【目的】随着全球气候变暖,极端降水事件强度和频率呈显著增加趋势,强降水引起的洪涝灾害不仅对社会经济造成严重的损失,还对生态环境带来极大破坏。2020年安徽省遭受持续时间长和降雨量大的特强梅雨降水过程,造成安徽省受灾严重。【方法】利用气象站点观测降水数据和ERA5再分析数据,探究安徽省极端降水时空演变特征和典型小时尺度降水过程,分析其与气候因子的遥相关关系。【结果】结果显示:1960—2020年安徽省6月和7月平均PRCPTOT变化率为9.0 mm/10 a和8.0 mm/10 a。2020年梅雨期影响范围最大的四次降水事件,累计雨量超过100 mm的气象站数占比达34%以上。相比1998年和2016年,2020年安徽省6—7月平均PRCPTOT为900.56 mm,是1960年以来最大值,是1998年和2016年的1.9倍和1.5倍;降雨强度(25.37 mm/d)为2016年的1.2倍、1998年的1.1倍,是历史均值的1.4倍。【结论】研究结果表明:(1)安徽省主汛期极端降水显著增加,且主要中心位于长江以南。极端降水量、降水强度、降水日数均增加。2020年强降水主要分布在长江河谷和皖南山区,降水主要发生在夜间和清晨;安徽北部地区降水更加集中,主要出现在下午,在15:00达到最大值。(2)与1998年和2016年相比,2020年安徽省降水总量、中雨以上日数和连续降水期明显增加。在降水强度相同的情况下,2020年中雨和大雨日数发生次数多,且连续降水期更长,是2020年6—7月降水量高的最主要原因。(3)安徽省6—7月极端降水指数与PDO在滞后3个月尺度上正相关性最显著,而滞后6个月尺度上极端降水指数与气候因子的正相关性不显著,SOI在滞后1个月(6个月)尺度上与极端降水指数呈正(负)相关性显著。

淮河流域暖季极端高温干旱复合事件的演变特征及其与气候和植被的关系

使用淮河流域1981年至2020年的149个气象站点的气温和相对湿度数据,分析了流域暖季极端高温干旱复合事件(Compound Drought and Heat Events,CDHEs)的时空演变特征,并通过趋势分析和相关分析法探讨了CDHEs与气候和植被的关系。结果表明:(1)CDHEs的发生日数在年代际尺度上呈现明显的增加趋势,并且范围扩大,频发区逐渐向淮河流域中西部移动;(2)在年际尺度上,CDHEs随时间序列呈显著的波动上升趋势,空间分布上以西北部为中心向四周递减。连续CDHEs事件呈年际变化,最大2至4天的连续事件存在波动,2019年达到高峰,并且在流域内零散或成片出现;(3)在月际尺度上,CDHEs的发生日数在6月最多,其次是5月、7月、9月和8月。淮河流域入汛前的旱情和入汛后的旱涝急转都容易导致CDHEs发生,而且随着月际变化向南移动;(4)CDHEs对水热条件和大气环流具有特别的敏感性。在850hPa反气旋和500hPa显著高压异常的控制下,高温、低湿、高蒸发和降水少的气候背景有利于淮河地区CDHEs的形成,尤其是在淮河中西部地区。因此,CDHEs的发生与气候变化密切相关;(5)CDHEs与植被生长也存在显著关系。CDHEs与GPP呈显著的负相关,而与NDVI呈显著的正相关,显著地区的土地类型以耕地和城乡、工矿、居民用地为主。GPP和NDVI的不同步可能是因为多种因素的非线性相互作用,而不仅仅是单一因素的影响。此外,对于GPP和NDVI来说,土壤含水量至关重要。总之,本文对淮河流域CDHEs的时空分布特征进行了深入研究,并探讨了其与气候和植被的关系。研究结果可以为该地区的气象灾害防御和生态环境保护提供科学依据和参考。

中国旱涝急转事件时空变化特征

【目的】旱涝急转事件造成的社会经济和生态环境影响严重,是我国发生频繁且广泛的一种复合型事件。明确我国旱涝急转事件发生的时空变化特征,可为地区制定防灾减灾措施提供科学依据。【方法】基于1961—2021年气象观测数据,使用Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散发,然后计算逐日的标准化降水蒸散指数(daily-SPEI),分流域对中国旱涝急转事件的频次、影响范围和趋势的变化特征进行分析。【结果】结果显示:(1)时间趋势上,1961—2021年中国受旱涝急转事件影响的范围以0.6%/10a的趋势增加,且平均每年有19.8%的范围发生旱涝急转事件。(2)空间分布上,旱涝急转事件主要分布在淮河流域、黄河流域、长江流域和松花江流域,事件发生频次在30次以上地区分别占流域总面积的63.1%、20.7%、15.0%、14.6%,事件频次最高达到53次。(3)中国旱涝急转事件存在明显的季节差异,主要发生在夏季事件发生频次在5次以上的空间范围占中国总面积的一半以上;其次是春季和秋季,事件发生频次在5次以上的空间范围占比均不足15%;冬季发生最少,事件发生频次在5次以下。【结论】结果表明:中国旱涝急转事件的影响范围整体呈增加趋势,中国中东部和东北部是旱涝急转事件发生频繁地区。研究结果可为旱涝急转事件的监测与应对提供科学基础。

1980—2022年青海地区气候变化时空分布特征及对农牧业生产的影响

为探究青海高原地区气候变化规律及对农牧业生产的影响,本研究基于1980—2022年青海境内39个气象站的气温、降水资料及门源农业气象站所观测的青稞产量,采用线性趋势分析法、Pearson相关系数法等方法,研究分析青海地区气温、降水时空分布的规律及对农牧业生产的影响。研究表明,在过去43 a间,青海平均气温以0.47℃/(10a)的速率呈现上升趋势,20世纪80—90年代气温偏低,1998年是气温回升的转折点;气温在空间上分布不均匀,整体表现为东部最高、西南和西北次高、中部和东南部最低的空间分布格局;气温增幅与海拔高度有关,海拔越高,升温速率相对较大,反之则愈小。降水量主体呈现增加的趋势,变化趋势为11.5 mm/(10a),降水量年际波动较大,增加和减少交替出现,但无明显的规律性;20世纪80年代增幅较小,90年代增幅为负值,21世纪10年代降水量出现较大回升趋势;降水量在空间上表现出分布不均匀的特点,总体表现出从东南向西北逐级减少的分布格局;另外,在农牧业生产中,水热条件是不可缺少的因子,特别是在农作物生长季,水热条件相辅相成,缺一不可,增温增湿的气候变化,对农牧业生产利大于弊。

近30年中国玉米气候生产潜力时空变化特征

气候变化背景下中国玉米气候生产潜力变化趋势及其空间差异值得关注。在1981年-2010年日气象数据、玉米生育期数据和土壤数据基础上,该文采用GIS技术和AEZ模型结合的方法,模拟了30a平均中国玉米生产潜力和中国玉米生产潜力变化趋势。研究得出:近30a中国春玉米气候生产潜力变化趋势为每5a变化-887～1689kg/hm2,空间差异明显,东北地区西部、黄淮海平原北部和黄土高原部分地区气候生产潜力呈降低趋势,黄淮海地区南部和南方绝大部分地区呈增加趋势。中国夏玉米气候生产潜力变化趋势为每5a变化-589～1768kg/hm2,除黄淮海平原北部呈降低趋势外,其他地区夏玉米气候生产潜力呈增加趋势。中国春玉米、夏玉米气候生产潜力呈下降趋势地区玉米光温生产潜力在近30a显著增加,气候干旱化是主要影响因素。该研究可为中国玉米生产宏观决策提供支持。

基于SPEI指数的华北冬麦区干旱时空分布特征分析

气候变化的背景下,华北地区干旱化趋势不断加剧。利用华北冬麦区45个气象站1961—2010逐月温度与降水数据,选取标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)作为区域干旱指数进行华北冬麦区近50年干旱时空特征分析。研究表明:(1)近50年来华北地区平均温度明显上升,研究区整体呈现干旱化加剧趋势。华北地区平均SPEI指数对于典型干旱年份的表征准确,与历史资料相符合。(2)华北不同区域之间增温率不同,导致干旱化趋势存在差异。通过对典型站点的分析,发现增温率越大的区域干旱化趋势越严重。(3)不同等级干旱发生的站次比能够较好地反映不同年型干旱的发生特点。对SPEI指数矩阵的EOF分析结果显示出华北地区典型的干旱时空分布特征,第一模态呈现全区旱涝变化一致型的分布形式,高值区包括山东西部、河南北部、河北南部地区,表明这些地区对干旱的反应最为敏感。时间系数序列未显示出明显的变化趋势;第二模态呈现南北相反的分布型,河北及山东的大部分地区空间系数均为正值,而河南大部分地区为负值。时间系数序列整体呈下降趋势,表明研究区北部干旱化趋势加剧,南部干旱化有所缓解;第三模态呈现东西相反的分布形式,这种分布特征的变化趋势不明显。

变化环境下渭河流域水文干旱演变特征剖析

环境变化影响区域水资源的可持续开发利用,导致水文过程出现非平稳特征,需发展非平稳水文干旱评估方法。选取渭河流域为研究区,依据流域内2个水文站、62个雨量站和24个气象站1961—2013年数据,基于可变下渗容量模型定量分离气候变化和人类活动对径流衰减的贡献;采用标准化径流指数(Standardized Runoff Index,SRI)剖析水文干旱时空演变特征;提出多种SRI参数化方案,对比评定各方案表征非平稳干旱的合理性以及环境变化对干旱演变的影响作用。结果表明:自1991年以来渭河流域年径流量呈显著衰减趋势,人类活动是径流演变的主要因素,对咸阳和华县站径流量变化的贡献率分别为-66.7%和-71.0%;时变参数方案计算的干旱指数能合理重建历史水文干旱序列;人类活动是渭河流域1991年以来短历时水文干旱发生的主导因素,气候变化主要影响长历时旱涝的演变趋势。

未来气候情景下我国北方地区干旱时空变化趋势

干旱是我国北方地区最为突出的环境问题。根据WCRP耦合模式输出的未来气候变化逐月资料,基于降水-蒸发力标准化干旱指数(SPEI),分析了IPCC SRES A1B、A2和B1三种情景下,2011-2050年我国北方地区干旱状况的时空变化趋势。结果表明:中国北方地区未来40 a呈现干旱化倾向,其中轻度和中度季节性干旱发生频率降低,重度和极端季节性干旱发生频率增加,增温引起的地表蒸发增加是极端干旱频发的主要原因。A1B、B1和A2情景下,2040s整个北方地区极端干旱频率增加、强度增强、影响范围明显扩大。极端干旱的增加可能给农业生产带来风险,采取有效应对措施,将有利于区域农业的可持续发展。

气候变化对中国农业旱灾损失率的影响及其南北区域差异性

在全球变暖背景下,干旱灾害对中国农业生产的影响日益严重,然而由于旱灾损失的复杂性及其显著的区域差异,至今对中国农业旱灾损失规律及其影响机制的认识十分有限。文中利用1961年以来中国农业干旱灾害的灾情资料和常规气象资料,系统分析了近50年来中国农业干旱灾害不同受灾强度分布比率和综合损失率等指标的变化趋势及其在北方和南方的区域差异,研究了20世纪90年代的气温突变对农业旱灾损失率的影响特征,探讨了农业旱灾综合损失率对气温和降水等气候要素变化的依赖关系及其在气候空间的分布特征。结果发现,在气候变化背景下,近50年来中国农业旱灾综合损失率平均每10 a约增加0.5%,风险明显增大。而且,北方综合损失率每10 a约增加0.6%,高出南方1倍,风险增大的速度明显比南方快;北方农业旱灾几乎在很宽松的气温条件下就可以发生,而南方更多发生在气温较高的年份。并且,在气温突变后,变化趋势明显加剧,全中国综合损失率约增加了0.9%,风险明显增高;而且北方综合损失率的增值高达1.8%,是南方的4倍还多,气候突变对北方农业旱灾风险的影响明显比南方更凸出。综合损失率在北方对降水变化的响应要更敏感,而在南方对气温变化的响应更敏感。同时,关键影响期降水对综合损失率的影响比全年降水影响更显著;北方的关键影响期作用比南方更凸出。这些新的科学认识对中国农业旱灾防御具有重要意义。

5种CMIP5模拟降水数据在中国的适用性评估

受气候变化影响,水资源短缺现象严重,自然灾害频发。对未来水资源状况进行有效的预测和评估,可为水资源合理配置工作提供理论及决策参考。全球气候模式是大尺度模拟预测未来降水的主要手段,但模式数据的模拟质量及其在不同研究区适用性需要进行系统评估。研究以1971—2000年2 474个气象站点监测降水数据为基准,对5种CMIP5模式模拟降水数据(0.5°×0.5°分辨率)进行系统性评估,分析CMIP5模式模拟降水数据在中国区的适用性。对比分析了1971—2000年间5种CMIP5模式模拟降水数据与中国地面监测降水数据所反映的中国降水趋势变化的时间和空间特征,对CMIP5模式模拟月降水数据进行经验校正,在数据相关性、误差和趋势一致性3个角度,采用相关系数(r),偏差均值(DAVE),相对绝对误差(ERA)和均方根误差(ERMS)4个指标和Seasonal Kendall(SK)趋势检验方法,从时间变化和空间分布特征两个角度,对校正后的CMIP5模式模拟降水数据在中国区域的数据质量进行系统评估。5种CMIP5模式模拟中国区年降水高于监测数据均超过20%,通过经验校正,在保证年降水不发生变化的情况下,使模拟降水数据与监测数据在逐月的相关性大大提高,误差大大降低。对5种模式模拟数据的综合评价显示,最适合模拟中国区降水的模式是HadGEM2-ES模式。对模式数据的系统性评估,为研究合理选择、校正和使用CMIP5数据集提供理论和技术参考。