As a major agricultural province,Yunnan has always attached great importance to food production,and the proportion of the growing area of food crops to the growing area of total crops is more than one half in Yunnan P...As a major agricultural province,Yunnan has always attached great importance to food production,and the proportion of the growing area of food crops to the growing area of total crops is more than one half in Yunnan Province,but the grain production efficiency has been low in recent years.Therefore,under the guidance of stabilizing food production and adjusting structure proposed by Yunnan provincial government,we analyze the impact of the growing area of food crops on farmers' income,based on the recent trends of the growing area of food crops.Finally we put forth the following recommendations:developing the food production based on market; rationally making overall arrangement of planting structure; paying attention to the agricultural science and technology progress.展开更多
A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco...A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco-social benefit maximization, food security, employment stability and ecosystem balance）. In this study, an interval-probabilistic agricultural production structure optimization model （IPAPSOM） is formulated for tackling uncertainty presented as discrete intervals and/or probability distribution. The developed model improves upon the existing probabilistic programming and inexact optimization approaches. The IPAPSOM considers not only food security policy constraints, but also involves rural households’income increase and eco-environmental conversation, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in an agricultural production structure optimization system. Moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying （or risk of violating） system constraints under uncertainty. The model is applied to a real case of long-term agricultural production structure optimization in Dancheng County, which is located in Henan Province of Central China as one of the major grain producing areas. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system benefit conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify the desired agricultural production structure optimization strategy under uncertainty.展开更多
文摘As a major agricultural province,Yunnan has always attached great importance to food production,and the proportion of the growing area of food crops to the growing area of total crops is more than one half in Yunnan Province,but the grain production efficiency has been low in recent years.Therefore,under the guidance of stabilizing food production and adjusting structure proposed by Yunnan provincial government,we analyze the impact of the growing area of food crops on farmers' income,based on the recent trends of the growing area of food crops.Finally we put forth the following recommendations:developing the food production based on market; rationally making overall arrangement of planting structure; paying attention to the agricultural science and technology progress.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41130748, 41101162)the Key Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-EW-304)
文摘A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco-social benefit maximization, food security, employment stability and ecosystem balance）. In this study, an interval-probabilistic agricultural production structure optimization model （IPAPSOM） is formulated for tackling uncertainty presented as discrete intervals and/or probability distribution. The developed model improves upon the existing probabilistic programming and inexact optimization approaches. The IPAPSOM considers not only food security policy constraints, but also involves rural households’income increase and eco-environmental conversation, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in an agricultural production structure optimization system. Moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying （or risk of violating） system constraints under uncertainty. The model is applied to a real case of long-term agricultural production structure optimization in Dancheng County, which is located in Henan Province of Central China as one of the major grain producing areas. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system benefit conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify the desired agricultural production structure optimization strategy under uncertainty.
