Online Contribution Rate Based Fault Diagnosis for Nonlinear Industrial Pro cesses

在过去的十年，核主管部件分析(KPCA ) 在监视区域的数据驱动的过程相当流行地出现了。庞大的工作被做了显示出它的简洁，可行性，和有效性。然而，核诡计的介绍使直接为差错诊断采用传统的贡献阴谋不可能。在这份报纸，根据重游并且分析存在， KPCA 相关的诊断来临，新贡献率基于方法被建议它能清楚地解释有缺点的变量。而且，为联机非线性的诊断的一个计划被建立。最后，连续搅动的坦克反应堆(CSTR ) 上的案例研究基准被使用存取新方法论的有效性，在有传统的线性方法的比较也被包含的地方。

Late-Quaternary Slip Rate and Seismic Activity of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone in Southwest China

The Xianshuihe fault zone is a seismo-genetic fault zone of left-lateral slip in Southwest China. Since 1725, a total of 59 Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes have occurred along this fault zone, including 18 Ms 6.0–6.9 and eight Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquakes. The seismic risk of the Xianshuihe fault zone is a large and realistic threat to the western Sichuan economic corridor. Based on previous studies, we carried out field geological survey and remote sensing interpretation in the fault zone. In addition, geophysical surveys, trenching and age-dating were conducted in the key parts to better understand the geometry, spatial distribution and activity of the fault zone. We infer to divide the fault zone into two parts： the northwest part and the southeast part, with total eight segments. Their Late Quaternary slip rates vary in a range of 11.5 mm/a –（3±1） mm/a. The seismic activities of the Xianshuihe fault zone are frequent and strong, periodical, and reoccurred. Combining the spatial and temporal distribution of the historical earthquakes, the seismic hazard of the Xianshuihe fault zone has been predicted by using the relationship between magnitude and frequency of earthquakes caused by different fault segments. The prediction results show that the segment between Daofu and Qianning has a possibility of Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquakes, while the segment between Shimian and Luding is likely to have earthquakes of about Ms 7.0. It is suggested to establish a GPS or In SAR-based real-time monitoring network of surface displacement to cover the Xianshuihe fault zone, and an early warning system of earthquakes and post seismic geohazards to cover the major residential areas.

NHPP-based software reliability model considering testing effort and multivariate fault detection rate

In recent decades,many software reliability growth models（SRGMs） have been proposed for the engineers and testers in measuring the software reliability precisely.Most of them is established based on the non-homogeneous Poisson process（NHPP）,and it is proved that the prediction accuracy of such models could be improved by adding the describing of characterization of testing effort.However,some research work indicates that the fault detection rate（FDR） is another key factor affects final software quality.Most early NHPPbased models deal with the FDR as constant or piecewise function,which does not fit the different testing stages well.Thus,this paper first incorporates a multivariate function of FDR,which is bathtub-shaped,into the NHPP-based SRGMs considering testing effort in order to further improve performance.A new model framework is proposed,and a stepwise method is used to apply the framework with real data sets to find the optimal model.Experimental studies show that the obtained new model can provide better performance of fitting and prediction compared with other traditional SRGMs.

The slip rate and strong earthquake recurrence interval on the Qianning-Kangding segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone

The geometry of the Qianning-Kangding segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone is quite complex, and it is composed of four secondary-faults, i.e., the Yalahe fault, Selaha-Kangding fault, Zeduotang fault and Moxi fault. On this segment, three strong earthquakes with M(7.0 occurred in 1725, 1786 and 1955, respectively. Based on a study of fault landform and geochronology (14C and Thermoluminesense), this paper documents the average horizontal slip rates during the late-Quaternary on all the secondary-faults of the Qianning-Kangding segment as follows: Yalahe fault: (2.0(0.2) mm/a; Selaha-Kangding fault: (5.5(0.6) mm/a; Zeduotang fault: (3.6(0.3) mm/a; Moxi fault: (9.9(0.6) mm/a. The results from the investigation of surface ruptures of historical earthquakes, coseismic-slip and paleo-earthquakes show that the strong-earthquake recurrence intervals are thousands of years on the Yalahe fault, and 230 to 350 years on the Selaha-Kangding and Zeduotang faults. In the next one hundred years, the recurrence of a strong-earthquake on these faults appears impossible. However, the strong-earthquake recurrence interval on the Moxi fault is about 300 years. Up to now, it has been 214 years since the last earthquake (magnitude 7) occurred in 1786, therefore, this fault is now approaching the condition favorable for the next strong earthquake recurrence.

Fast Rate Fault Detection Filter for Multirate Sampled-data Systems

This paper focuses on the fast rate fault detection filter (FDF) problem for a class of multirate sampled-data (MSD) systems. A lifting technique is used to convert such an MSD system into a linear time-invariant discrete-time one and an unknown input observer (UIO) is considered as FDF to generate residual. The design of FDF is formulated as an H∞ optimization problem and a solvable condition as well as an optimal solution are derived. The causality of the residual generator can be guaranteed so that the fast rate residual can be implemented via inverse lifting. A numerical example is included to demonstrate the feasibility of the obtained results.

Revisiting Late Quaternary Slip-rate along the Maqu Segment of the Eastern Kunlun Fault, Northeast Tibet

The Late Quaternary slip rate along the Maqu segment of the eastern Kunlun Fault was estimated using a combination of high-resolution remote sensing imagery interpretation, field observations and differential Global Positioning System（GPS） measurements of offset river terraces, and 14 C dating of snail shells collected from offset risers. The results show that the left-slip rate along the segment is 3–5 mm/a, and that the vertical slip rate is 0.3–0.5 mm/a. Both the horizontal and vertical slips on the segment remain consistent over a distance of ~100 km. It means that no slip gradient as previously suggested occurred along the Maqu segment, and which thus might behave as an independent seismogenic fault. Judging from multiple relationships among young terrace offsets, we infer that co-seismic surface rupture produced by a characteristic earthquake with a magnitude of Ms7.0–7.5 on the Maqu fault could generate a horizontal slip of 4.5–5 m and a vertical slip of 0.45–0.5 m, with a corresponding ratio（Dh/Dv） of about 9. Two surface rupture events must have occurred over the past 3300 years, the latest one possibly between 1485 cal BP and 1730 cal BP.

Geomorphic Evidence for and Rate of Sinistral Strike-slip Movement Along Northwest-trending Faults in Chaoshan Plain

Two sets of active faults,northwest-and northeast-trending faults,are developed in the Chao-shan Plain of East Guangdong.After detailed interpretation of aerophotos,we have found outthat there is the clear phenomenon of sinistral dislocation of drainage system on the Huang-gang-shui fault and part of Fengshun-Shantou fault.Field investigation confirmed that the geo-morphic bodies along the two faults have undergone displacement.Large-scale topographicmapping was made at three displaced sites and samples for age dating were collected from thegeomorphic booies.Calculation indicates that the average rate of sinistral strike-slip movementin the Holocene time amounts to 1.11±0.09～2.69±0.24mm/a along the Huanggangshuifault and 3.26±0.26mm/a along the Fengshun-Shantou fault.These two more active NW-trending faults extend into sea area,where they intersect the NE-trending strongly active Nius-han Island-Xiongdi Isle-Nanpeng Isles fault at a depth of 40～50m in water.The intersection isa location favorable

SLIP RATE AND RECURRENCE INTERVAL OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE OF QIANNING—KANGDING SEGMENT ON XIANSHUIHE FAULT

Located on the western of Sichuan, the east border of Tibet plateau, Xianshuihe fault is a significant strong earthquake zone. From Huiyuansi pull\|apart basin in Qianning, Xianshuihe fault can be divided two segments\|NW section and SE section: the construction of the former is single and a main fault; the construction of the latter is complex and composed by three parallel faults, its main fault is named as Selaha—Kangding fault, which distributes along Jinlongsi, Sehala, Mugecuo and Kangding. Yalahe fault, located at the NE direction of the main fault, and Zeduotang fault, located at the SW direction of the main fault, are all secondary faults, which are 9～13km away from the main fault. At the south of Kangding, the segment of Xianshuihe fault is a single main section, called as Moxi fault. On the basis of recent researching results, this paper mainly discusses the slip rate and recurrence interval of strong earthquake of the SE segment (Qianning—Kangding) on Xianshuihe.

Uniform Strike-Slip Rate along the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang Fault System and Its Implications for Active Tectonics in Southeastern Tibet

Recent studies on the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system suggest that the Late Quaternary strike-slip rate is approximately uniform along the entire length of the fault zone, about 15±2 mm/a. This approximately uniform strike slip rate strongly supports the clockwise rotation model of the southeastern Tibetan crust. By approximating the geometry of the arc-shaped Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system as a portion of a small circle on a spherical Earth, the 15±2 mm/a strike slip rate corresponds to clockwise rotation of the Southeastern Tibetan Block at the （5.2±0.7）×10^-7 deg/a angular velocity around the pole （21°N, 88°E） relative to the Northeast Tibetan Block. The approximately uniform strike slip rate along the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system also implies that the Longmeushan thrust zone is not active, or at least its activity has been very weak since the Late Quaternary. Moreover, the total offset along the Xiaushuihe-Xiaojiang fault system suggests that the lateral extrusion of the Southeastern Tibetan Block relative to Northeastern Tibetan Block is about 160 km and 200-240 km relative to the Tarim-North China block. This amount of lateral extrusion of the Tibetan crust should have accommodated about 13-24% convergence between India and Eurasia based on mass balance calculations. Assuming that the slip rate of 15±2 mm/a is constant throughout the entire history of the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system, 11±1.5 Ma is needed for the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system to attain the 160 km of total offset. This implies that left-slip faulting on the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system might start at 11±1.5 Ma.

Distribution of large-scale detachment faults on mid-ocean ridges in relation to spreading rates

Large-scale detachment faults on mid-ocean ridges （MORs） provide a window into the deeper earth. They have megamullion on their corrugated surfaces, with exposed lower crustal and upper mantle rocks, rela- tively high residual Bouguer gravity anomaly and P-wave velocity, and are commonly associated with ocean- ic core complex. According to 30 detachment faults identified on MORs, we found that their distances to the axis mostly range from 5 to 50 km, half-spreading rates range from 6.8 to 17 mm/a, and activity time ranges from recent to 3 Ma. Most of the detachment faults are developed on the slow spreading Mid-Atlantic Ridge （MAR） and ultra-slow spreading Southwest Indian Ridge （SWIRl, with the dominant half-spreading rates of 7-13 mm/a, especially 10-13 mm/a. Furthermore, they mostly occur at the inside corner of one segment end and result in an asymmetric seafloor spreading. The detachment faults on MORs are mainly controlled by the tectonism and influenced by the magmatism. Long-lived detachment faults tend to be formed where the ridge magma supply is at a moderate level, although the tectonism is a first-order controlling factor. At the slow spreading ridges, detachment faults tend to occur where local magma supply is relatively low, whilst at the ultra-slow spreading ridges, they normally occur where local magma supply is relatively high. These faults are accompanied by hydrothermal activities, with their relationships being useful in the study of hydrothermal polymetallic sulfides and their origin.

Slip Rate of Yema River–Daxue Mountain Fault since the Late Pleistocene and Its Implications on the Deformation of the Northeastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

The slip rate of Yema River-Daxue Mountain fault in the western segment of Qilian Mountains was determined by the dated offset of river risers or gullies. Results indicate that the left-lateral fault slip rate is 2.82± 0.20 mm/a at Dazangdele site, 2.00 ± 0.24 mm/a at Shibandun site, and 0.50± 0.36 and 2.80±0.33 mm/a at two sites in Zhazihu. The ideal average slip rate of the whole fault is 2.81 ± 0.32 mm/a. The lower slip rate confirms part of the displacement of Altyn Tagh fault was transformed into an uplifting of the strap mountains in the western segment of Qilian Mountains, whereas another part transformed into sinistral displacement of Haiyuan fault. This study illustrates that the slip of large strike-slip faults in the northeastern margin of the plateau transforms into crust thickening at the tip of the fault without large-scale propagation to the outer parts of the plateau.

Discussion on the Abnormally Low Active Fault Slip Rate of the M_S 8. 0 Wenchuan Earthquake

Based on the collection of active fault slip rate data of large intra-continental shallow thrust earthquakes occurring in the triangular seismic region of the East Asia continent,a preliminary analysis has been performed with results showing that the Wenchuan,Sichuan, China earthquake ( MS = 8.0) of May 12,2008 occurred on the Longmenshan Mountain active fault with an abnormally low slip rate.

川西理塘-义敦断裂措普湖段第四纪晚期滑动速率与古地震序列

理塘-义敦断裂是川滇菱形块体内部一条延伸约130 km的全新世活动的左旋走滑断裂带,是川西理塘地区地震活动的重要控震构造,目前其北段的措普湖段研究程度相对较低。将理塘-义敦断裂措普湖段作为研究对象,运用野外勘察、高精度测绘、探槽与14C测年等方法对措普湖段进行滑动速率和古地震探究。开挖的2处探槽位于冬欧山坡麓处,通过识别探槽内断裂与地层的切割关系、地层沉积特征、断层运动性质等标志;共识别出4次古地震事件:事件Ⅰ发生于BC 3382±60 a之前;事件Ⅱ发生于BC 3382±60 a~BC 1094±51 a之间;事件Ⅲ与事件Ⅳ均发生于AD 1330±44 a之后。可以推断理塘-义敦断裂措普湖段具有大概率的古地震复发间隔为2.4 ka左右,不排除有小概率复发间隔0.4±0.3 ka的可能。理塘-义敦断裂措普湖段古地震事件与大毛垭坝段和理塘段古地震事件之间存在差异,但是不同分段断裂的地震活动性在全新世以来均表现出持续增强趋势。根据测绘断错地貌和末次冰期冰碛垄推算出晚更新世以来措普湖段平均滑动速率为4.15±0.5 mm/a,与理塘-义敦断裂第四纪晚期不同分支滑动速率处于同一量级水平。文章完善了理塘-义敦断裂的构造特征全貌和古地震、滑动速率等信息,有助于更好地理解该断裂及该地区地震活动史和构造变形模式,为今后地震的中长期预测提供更多的数据,同时也有助于川藏铁路沿线相关工程的地震风险评估。

Activity Features and Slip Rate of the Lingwu Fault in Late Quaternary

The I ingwu fault is in the eastern boundary of the southern section of Yinchuan graben. It hasa close relation to seismicity in the Lingwu-Wuzhong region.Few researches have been done.In this Paper,on the basis of tee data obtained from field investigation,the activity features inLate Quaternary have been discussed.The vertical displacement and its slip rate have been alsoestimated.The fault is 48km in length,being divided into 3 segments according to geologicaland topographical characteristics.The last rupture along its northern and middle segments wasoccurred in late of Late Pleistocene or early Holocene while that along the southern segmentwas occurred in midle Holocene.The vertical slip rate is estimated as 0.23～025mm/a sinceabout 66ka B.P.based on the vertical displacements of terracesⅠ,Ⅱ and Ⅲ and their ages.

Paleoseismological Study of the Late Quaternary Slip-rate along the South Barkol Basin Fault and Its Tectonic Implications,Eastern Tian Shan,Xinjiang

The easternmost Tian Shan lies in eastern Xinjiang, Central Asia. The South Barkol basin fault（SBF） in the northern part of the easternmost Tian Shan is a major tectonic structure in this orogenic region. The late Quaternary activity, paleoseismology, and deformation characteristics of the fault provide important clues for understanding the tectonic process of the eastern Tian Shan orogen and implementing seismic mitigation. Through interpretation of high-resolution satellite images, unmanned aerial vehicle measurements, and detailed geological and geomorphic investigations, we suggest that the fault exhibits clear left-lateral slip along its western segment. Paleoseismic trenches dug near Xiongkuer reveal evidence of six large paleoearthquakes. The four latest paleoearthquakes were dated： the oldest event occurred at 4663 BC–3839 BC. Data on the horizontal offsets along the probable 1842 Barkol earthquake coseismic rupture suggest clear multiple relationships between cumulative offsets and possible ~4 m of coseismic left-lateral slip per event. From the cumulative offsets and 14 C sample ages, we suggest an average Holocene left-lateral slip rate of 2.4–2.8 mm/a on the SBF, accounting for ~80% of lateral deformation within the entire eastern Tian Shan fault system. This result is comparable with the shortening rate of 2–4 mm/a in the whole eastern Tian Shan, indicating an equal role of strike-slip tectonics and compressional tectonics in this orogen, and that the SBF may accommodate substantial lateral tectonic deformation.

基于随机森林的硬盘故障率预测研究

为了避免硬盘出现故障而造成大量数据丢失,文章提出一种基于随机森林的方法对硬盘的故障进行预测,降低其丢失数据的风险。首先,在数据预处理方面,对所采用的数据做特征映射预处理;其次,通过对决策树进行构建及选取等,构建随机森林预测模型,根据所选取的特征属性预测硬盘故障率所在的区间,并且特征属性的变化能反映出硬盘故障率的变化趋势;最后,对构建的随机森林模型参数进行调优,选取不同的n_estimators参数值进行测试和优化。实验结果表明,与XGBoost(Extreme Gradient Boosting)、LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory)等方法相比,本文方法的F1值(F-Measure)分别提高了0.93%和1.84%,并且对随机森林预测模型的参数值进行不同取值测试,最终准确率达到98.18%,比默认值提高了1.23%,证明该方法能更精确地预测硬盘故障率,反映出硬盘故障率基于特征属性的变化趋势。

泸定M S6.8地震震前变形特征及鲜水河断裂南东段地震活动性

针对鲜水河断裂带南东段的历史地震活动性和近10 a该断裂带上发生的中小震群展布特征,利用GNSS观测数据给出2022年泸定M S6.8地震震源区及周边区域的速度场、应变率场,识别此次地震震前的变形特征。GNSS速度场显示,鲜水河断裂带南东段走滑速率约为10 mm/a,区域整体运动为ES向,与断裂构造运动具有一致性;应变率场结果显示,发震断裂仍存在较强的剪切应变积累,汶川特大地震后随着应变能不断释放,龙门山断裂带的卸载作用间接影响鲜水河断裂带的南东段,该断裂长期处于应变积累高值的过渡区,现今仍具有较高的断层闭锁状态,该地区的地震活动趋势和地震危险性值得进一步关注和研究。

基于GNSS的西秦岭北缘断裂带现今活动特征研究

基于1999~2007年、2009~2013年、2013~2017年和2017~2021年共4期GNSS地壳运动速度场构建GNSS速度剖面,分析西秦岭北缘断裂带各次级断裂现今地壳差异运动特征,并进一步建立负位错模型反演获取各次级断裂现今闭锁程度与滑动亏损速率。结果表明:1)西秦岭北缘断裂带现今整体呈现出以左旋走滑为主、兼逆冲挤压的活动特征。2)1999~2007年,锅麻滩段和天水-宝鸡段整体处于强闭锁状态,漳县段和鸳凤段仅部分区段闭锁且闭锁程度较低,闭锁深度也较浅;2009~2013年,西秦岭北缘断裂带中段闭锁程度有所减弱,鸳凤段东部与天水-宝鸡段东部由较强闭锁转变为蠕滑状态,锅麻滩段和天水-宝鸡段中西部依然呈强闭锁状态;2013~2017年,西秦岭北缘断裂带整体处于较强闭锁状态,仅天水-宝鸡段东部呈蠕滑状态;2017~2021年,锅麻滩段中西部、漳县段、鸳凤段东部和天水-宝鸡段中部处于较强闭锁状态,鸳凤段中西部与天水-宝鸡段西部则呈蠕滑状态。3)各次级断裂滑动亏损速率整体分布特征与断裂闭锁程度基本一致。西秦岭北缘断裂带锅麻滩段和天水-宝鸡段中部现今处于较强闭锁状态,具有较强的应变能累积背景。

A Software Reliability Model for OSS Including Various Fault Data Based on Proportional Hazard-Rate Model

The software reliability model is the stochastic model to measure the software reliability quantitatively. A Hazard-Rate Model is the well-known one as the typical software reliability model. We propose Hazard-Rate Models Considering Fault Severity Levels (CFSL) for Open Source Software (OSS). The purpose of this research is to make the Hazard-Rate Model considering CFSL adapt to baseline hazard function and 2 kinds of faults data in Bug Tracking System (BTS), i.e., we use the covariate vectors in Cox proportional Hazard-Rate Model. Also, we show the numerical examples by evaluating the performance of our proposed model. As the result, we compare the performance of our model with the Hazard-Rate Model CFSL.

一种适用于深远海全直流风电汇集网络的保护方法

随着海上风电向深远海发展,全直流型风电场由于不存在过电压问题等优点逐渐受到重视。针对全直流海上风电场的汇集线路继电保护问题,首先分析了直流汇集网络在不同故障类型及不同故障位置下的故障特征,计算对应故障情况下的故障电流,并与仿真值进行对比验证。根据故障特征提出一种利用汇集侧暂态电流变化率的单端量故障选线方案,利用区内外故障的故障暂态电流变化率极性和幅值差异,可在换流器过流闭锁前快速识别故障类型、故障线路及极性。通过在母线处设置附加选线流程,使线路末端高阻接地故障时也能准确选线。在PSCAD/EMTDC平台中搭建了全直流海上风电场模型,进行多种故障场景下的仿真分析,验证了所提故障选线方法的有效性。