A method to predict near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active faults is proposed. First, macro-source parameters characterizing the entire source area, i.e., global source parameters, includi...A method to predict near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active faults is proposed. First, macro-source parameters characterizing the entire source area, i.e., global source parameters, including fault length, fault width, rupture area, average slip on the fault plane, etc., are estimated by seismogeology survey, seismicity and seismic scaling laws. Second, slip distributions characterizing heterogeneity or roughness on the fault plane, i.e., local source parameters, are reproduced/evaluated by the hybrid slip model. Finally, the finite fault source model, developed from both the global and local source parameters, is combined with the stochastically synthetic technique of ground motion using the dynamic comer frequency based on seismology. The proposed method is applied to simulate the acceleration time histories on three base-rock stations during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Comparisons between the predicted and recorded acceleration time histories show that the method is feasible and practicable.展开更多
The occurrence of the historical and machine Earthquakes, near to the North Tabriz Fault in NW Iran is an evidence for the seismic activity of this fault, which records a historical earthquake with a magnitude more th...The occurrence of the historical and machine Earthquakes, near to the North Tabriz Fault in NW Iran is an evidence for the seismic activity of this fault, which records a historical earthquake with a magnitude more than 7. Using the existing experimental relations, seismicity, and the fault geometry, a Mw 7.7 earthquake scenario was defined. The stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency shows good agreement with common attenuation patterns. The shake map illustrates that Baghmisheh, Roshtieh, Ellahieh, Valiamr, and Eram region on Tabriz are at high hazard areas, and the maximum acceleration is located at the north direction with the same azimuth similar to fault strike.展开更多
将齿轮箱温度划分为正常、温升异常和温度异常3种场景,并利用所构建的卷积神经网络(Conventional neural network,CNN)结合双向长短期记忆(Bidirectional long short term memory,BiLSTM)网络模型对场景进行判别。在此基础上,采用分位...将齿轮箱温度划分为正常、温升异常和温度异常3种场景,并利用所构建的卷积神经网络(Conventional neural network,CNN)结合双向长短期记忆(Bidirectional long short term memory,BiLSTM)网络模型对场景进行判别。在此基础上,采用分位数回归(Quantile regression,QR)结合门控循环单元(Gate recurrent unit,GRU)方法,分别预测不同温度场景下的油温及轴承点预测及温度区间,并根据GRU温度异常诊断模型对2种预测温度进行诊断。算例分析结果表明,用该方法能准确预测各状态下齿轮箱温度,且预测区间可靠,可实现齿轮箱温度异常的高效诊断。依托某风场实测数据对所提方案进行验证,验证结果表明所提方法有效且性能优越。展开更多
Ujsing deterministic methods in combination with probabilistic methods,the authors havestudied in detail the seismogeological background,seismogfnic faults and their abilities ingenerating earthquakes,the temporal and...Ujsing deterministic methods in combination with probabilistic methods,the authors havestudied in detail the seismogeological background,seismogfnic faults and their abilities ingenerating earthquakes,the temporal and spatial distribution features of seismicity;predicted the seismicity tendency in future 50 years;and studied the expected magnitude andexpected distance of destructive earthquakes that may attack Zigong City.On such a basis,2scenario earthquakes have been determined for Zigong City.The results would be helphl forthe lecal government and authorities to work out a great earthquake emergency pre-plan andto estaplish the great earthquake fast-response system.展开更多
基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation UnderGrant No. 2005037650 Heilongjiang Province PostdoctoralScience Foundation China EarthquakeAdministration’s Tenth"Five Year Plans" Project
文摘A method to predict near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active faults is proposed. First, macro-source parameters characterizing the entire source area, i.e., global source parameters, including fault length, fault width, rupture area, average slip on the fault plane, etc., are estimated by seismogeology survey, seismicity and seismic scaling laws. Second, slip distributions characterizing heterogeneity or roughness on the fault plane, i.e., local source parameters, are reproduced/evaluated by the hybrid slip model. Finally, the finite fault source model, developed from both the global and local source parameters, is combined with the stochastically synthetic technique of ground motion using the dynamic comer frequency based on seismology. The proposed method is applied to simulate the acceleration time histories on three base-rock stations during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Comparisons between the predicted and recorded acceleration time histories show that the method is feasible and practicable.
文摘The occurrence of the historical and machine Earthquakes, near to the North Tabriz Fault in NW Iran is an evidence for the seismic activity of this fault, which records a historical earthquake with a magnitude more than 7. Using the existing experimental relations, seismicity, and the fault geometry, a Mw 7.7 earthquake scenario was defined. The stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency shows good agreement with common attenuation patterns. The shake map illustrates that Baghmisheh, Roshtieh, Ellahieh, Valiamr, and Eram region on Tabriz are at high hazard areas, and the maximum acceleration is located at the north direction with the same azimuth similar to fault strike.
文摘将齿轮箱温度划分为正常、温升异常和温度异常3种场景,并利用所构建的卷积神经网络(Conventional neural network,CNN)结合双向长短期记忆(Bidirectional long short term memory,BiLSTM)网络模型对场景进行判别。在此基础上,采用分位数回归(Quantile regression,QR)结合门控循环单元(Gate recurrent unit,GRU)方法,分别预测不同温度场景下的油温及轴承点预测及温度区间,并根据GRU温度异常诊断模型对2种预测温度进行诊断。算例分析结果表明,用该方法能准确预测各状态下齿轮箱温度,且预测区间可靠,可实现齿轮箱温度异常的高效诊断。依托某风场实测数据对所提方案进行验证,验证结果表明所提方法有效且性能优越。
基金This project was sponsored by China Seismological Bureau(95-06-02-04-02)
文摘Ujsing deterministic methods in combination with probabilistic methods,the authors havestudied in detail the seismogeological background,seismogfnic faults and their abilities ingenerating earthquakes,the temporal and spatial distribution features of seismicity;predicted the seismicity tendency in future 50 years;and studied the expected magnitude andexpected distance of destructive earthquakes that may attack Zigong City.On such a basis,2scenario earthquakes have been determined for Zigong City.The results would be helphl forthe lecal government and authorities to work out a great earthquake emergency pre-plan andto estaplish the great earthquake fast-response system.
