Decadal Forecasts of Large Earthquakes along the Northern San Andreas Fault System, California: Increased Activity on Regional Creeping Faults Prior to Major and Great Events

The three largest earthquakes in northern California since 1849 were preceded by increased decadal activity for moderate-size shocks along surrounding nearby faults. Increased seismicity, double-difference precise locations of earthquakes since 1968, geodetic data and fault offsets for the 1906 great shock are used to re-examine the timing and locations of possible future large earthquakes. The physical mechanisms of regional faults like the Calaveras, Hayward and Sargent, which exhibit creep, differ from those of the northern San Andreas, which is currently locked and is not creeping. Much decadal forerunning activity occurred on creeping faults. Moderate-size earthquakes along those faults became more frequent as stresses in the region increased in the latter part of the cycle of stress restoration for major and great earthquakes along the San Andreas. They may be useful for decadal forecasts. Yearly to decadal forecasts, however, are based on only a few major to great events. Activity along closer faults like that in the two years prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta shock needs to be examined for possible yearly forerunning changes to large plate boundary earthquakes. Geodetic observations are needed to focus on identifying creeping faults close to the San Andreas. The distribution of moderate-size earthquakes increased significantly since 1990 along the Hayward fault but not adjacent to the San Andreas fault to the south of San Francisco compared to what took place in the decades prior to the three major historic earthquakes in the region. It is now clear from a re-examination of the 1989 mainshock that the increased level of moderate-size shocks in the one to two preceding decades occurred on nearby East Bay faults. Double-difference locations of small earthquakes provide structural information about faults in the region, especially their depths. The northern San Andreas fault is divided into several strongly coupled segments based on differences in seismicity.

Uniform Strike-Slip Rate along the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang Fault System and Its Implications for Active Tectonics in Southeastern Tibet

Recent studies on the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system suggest that the Late Quaternary strike-slip rate is approximately uniform along the entire length of the fault zone, about 15±2 mm/a. This approximately uniform strike slip rate strongly supports the clockwise rotation model of the southeastern Tibetan crust. By approximating the geometry of the arc-shaped Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system as a portion of a small circle on a spherical Earth, the 15±2 mm/a strike slip rate corresponds to clockwise rotation of the Southeastern Tibetan Block at the （5.2±0.7）×10^-7 deg/a angular velocity around the pole （21°N, 88°E） relative to the Northeast Tibetan Block. The approximately uniform strike slip rate along the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system also implies that the Longmeushan thrust zone is not active, or at least its activity has been very weak since the Late Quaternary. Moreover, the total offset along the Xiaushuihe-Xiaojiang fault system suggests that the lateral extrusion of the Southeastern Tibetan Block relative to Northeastern Tibetan Block is about 160 km and 200-240 km relative to the Tarim-North China block. This amount of lateral extrusion of the Tibetan crust should have accommodated about 13-24% convergence between India and Eurasia based on mass balance calculations. Assuming that the slip rate of 15±2 mm/a is constant throughout the entire history of the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system, 11±1.5 Ma is needed for the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system to attain the 160 km of total offset. This implies that left-slip faulting on the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system might start at 11±1.5 Ma.

Features of the fault system and its relationship with migration and accumulation of hydrocarbon in Liaodong Bay

The fault system of Liaodong Bay developed extensively under the control of the Tanlu Fault. The fault system can be grouped into strike-slip faults of grade Ⅰ, trunk faults of grade Ⅱand branch faults （induced faults） of grade Ⅲ respectively based on its developmental scale. The faults of grade Ⅰ and Ⅱwere deep, early and large while the faults of grade Ⅲwere shallow, late and small. The formation, evolution and distribution features played a significant role in controlling the migration of oil and gas in both horizontal and vertical directions. The fluid transfer in the fault system occurred in the process of faulting. The strike-slip and trunk faults moved actively forming predominant pathways for oil and gas migration. The branch faults, with weak activity, generally controlled the development of traps and were beneficial for the accumulation and preservation of oil and gas. The faults of grade Ⅰ and Ⅱ formed the major migration pathways for oil and gas, but their fault activity rates appeared to vary along their strikes. The zones with a relatively low fault activity rate might be favorable for oil and gas accumulation. When the activities of strike-slip, trunk, and branch faults came to a halt, the fault seal behavior had a vitally important effect on the accumulation of oil and gas. The controlling role of the fault over fluid distribution was further analyzed by calculating the fault activity quantitatively.

Development characteristics of the fault system and its control on basin structure, Bodong Sag, East China

The Bodong Sag,located in the Bohai Sea,offshore China,is one of the most petroliferous basins in China.Based on three dimensional seismic reflection data and time slice data,we analyze the fault system of the Bodong area in detail,establish the fault structure pattern of different types and summarize the distribution of the fault system.It is concluded that the development characteristics of the Cenozoic fault system are in accordance with the dextral stress field of the Tanlu Fault,which displayed a brush structure with NNE strike-slip faults as its principal faults,NE-trending extensional faults as secondary faults and EW-trending faults as minor faults.Faults can be divided into （1） strike-slip type,（2） extensional type,（3） strike-slip extensional type and （4） extensional strike-slip type.The spatial structures of different faults have obvious differences because of the fault properties and activity intensity.The fault system at different stages shows tremendous differences because of the transition of the Tanlu Fault from sinistral strike-slip to dextral strike-slip,the transition between extension and strike-slip,and the transition from mantle upwelling to thermal subsidence.According to the controlling effect of faults on basin structure,the Cenozoic basin experienced four evolutionary stages,（a） transition stage from sinistral strike-slip to dextral strike-slip,（b） strike-slip extensional faulted stage,（c） extensional strike-slip faulted stage and （d） strike-slip depression stage.The identification of temporal and spatial differences of faults could be used as a significant guideline for oil and gas exploration in the Bodong area.

The First Quantitative Slip-Rate Estimated Along the Ashikule Fault at the Western Segment of the Altyn Tagh Fault System

As one of the longest strike-slip fault in Asia,the Altyn Tagh Fault（ATF）defines the northern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau and plays a significant role inaccommodating the deformation resulting from the IndiaAsia convergence.

Fault Systems and their Control of Deep Gas Accumulations in Xujiaweizi Area

A study of faults and their control of deep gas accumulations has been made on the basis of dividing fault systems in the Xujiaweizi area. The study indicates two sets of fault systems are developed vertically in the Xujiaweizi area, including a lower fault system and an upper fault system. Formed in the period of the Huoshiling Formation to Yingcheng Formation, the lower fault system consists of five fault systems including Xuxi strike-slip extensional fault system, NE-trending extensional fault system, near-EW-trending regulating fault system, Xuzhong strike-slip fault system and Xudong strike-slip fault system. Formed in the period of Qingshankou Formation to Yaojia Formation, the upper fault system was affected mainly by the boundary conditions of the lower fault system, and thus plenty of muiti-directionally distributed dense fault zones were formed in the T2 reflection horizon. The Xuxi fault controlled the formation and distribution of Shahezi coal-measure source rocks, and Xuzhong and Xndong faults controlled the formation and distribution of volcanic reservoirs of Y1 Member and Y3 Member, respectively. In the forming period of the upper fault system, the Xuzhong fault was of successive strong activities and directly connected gas source rock reservoirs and volcanic reservoirs, so it is a strongly-charged direct gas source fault. The volcanic reservoir development zones of good physical properties that may be found near the Xuzhong fault are the favorable target zones for the next exploration of deep gas accumulations in Xujiaweizi area.

Paleoseismological Analysis Along the Astara Fault System(Talesh Mountain, North Iran)

The Astara Fault System（AFS） is located in the northwest Alborz, east of Talesh Mountain（TM） and west of the South Caspian Basin（SCB）. The AFS is one of the basement rock faults in Iran that is heavily involved in seismotectonic activity of the Talesh region, and to which subsidence of the SCB is attributed. There is little information available concerning previous AFS seismic activities and its properties. In order to elucidate the seismic behavior and activities of the AFS, we conducted a research study on paleoseismology of the fault. Based on paleoseismic evidence, two scenarios could be taken into consideration, one of which has three and another has four seismic events with magnitudes Mw in the range of 6.7 to 7.2. Evidence of these seismic events is within sedimentary succession as they have occurred during the past 3 ka（this age is determined based on the deposition rate of the region）. Six carbon samples were taken for C^14 age determination tests, the results of which clearly demonstrated that the EvIV（scenario A） and EvⅢ（scenario B） had occurred before 27,444 cal BP, while other events occurred in the time period between 27,444 cal BP and 3 ka ago. If we consider the occurrence of three or four seismic events（based on the two scenarios） to be between 27,444 cal BP and 3 ka ago, the average recurrence interval is 7,119 ± 1,017, but evidence for these events has been removed. If we assume EvI to be the youngest event（in both scenarios）, the minimum elapsed time is therefore 3 ka.

Gas injection for enhanced oil recovery in two-dimensional geology-based physical model of Tahe fractured-vuggy carbonate reservoirs:karst fault system

Gas injection serves as a main enhanced oil recovery(EOR)method in fractured-vuggy carbonate reservoir,but its effect differs among single wells and multi-well groups because of the diverse fractured-vuggy configuration.Many researchers conducted experiments for the observation of fluid flow and the evaluation of production performance,while most of their physical models were fabricated based on the probability distribution of fractures and caves in the reservoir.In this study,a two-dimensional physical model of the karst fault system was designed and fabricated based on the geological model of TK748 well group in the seventh block of the Tahe Oilfield.The fluid flow and production performance of primary gas flooding were discussed.Gas-assisted gravity flooding was firstly introduced to take full use of gas-oil gravity difference,and its feasibility in the karst fault system was examined.Experimental results showed that primary gas flooding created more flow paths and achieved a remarkable increment of oil recovery compared to water flooding.Gas injection at a lower location was recommended to delay gas breakthrough.Gas-assisted gravity flooding achieved more stable gas-displacing-oil because oil production was at a lower location,and thus,the oil recovery was further enhanced.

Features and mechanism of neotectonic deformation of the Xishan fault system west of Urumqi

We have made careful field investigation and trench exploration to the Xishan fault system in west of Urumqi, and an integrated analysis in conjunction with data of deep seismic sounding. Our result suggests that under the SN-oriented compressive stress, the Xishan block moves steadily toward the Tianshan Mountains in south, resulting in southward thrust-slip and crustal shortening, particularly the southward thrust of the Xishan fault which serves as the main boundary in south. North of the Xishan fault are the Wangjiagou fault and Jiujiawan fault which are the secondary faults associated with the Xishan fault in generation. Both faults have slippage along horizons during the uplift of the Xishan block, and the Jiujiawan fault has also a component of normal faulting due to the influence of the Bogeda nappe structure. These two faults accommodate the fold deformation of the hanging wall of the Xishan fault, thus the Xishan fault-bounded swell is characterized by monocline. All secondary faults of the Xishan fault system constitute a common seismogenic structural system, so that their seismic hazards should be considered in an equal manner.

Regional Fault Systems of Qaidam Basin and Adjacent Orogenic Belts

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the regional fault systems o f Qaidam basin and adjacent orogenic belts. Field investigation and seismic interp retation indicate that five regional fault systems occurred in the Qaidam and ad jacent mountain belts, controlling the development and evolution of the Qaidam b asin. These fault systems are: (1)north Qaidam Qilian Mountain fault system; (2 ) south Qaidam East Kunlun Mountain fault system; (3)Altun strike slip fault s ystem; (4)Elashan strike slip fault system, and (5) Gansen Xiaochaidan fault s ystem. It is indicated that the fault systems controlled the orientation of the Qaidam basin, the formation and distribution of secondary faults within the basi n, the migration of depocenters and the distribution of hydrocarbon accumulation belt.

Boundary integral equations for dynamic rupture propagation on vertical complex fault system in half-space:Theory

The boundary integral equation method （BIEM） is now widely used in numerical studies on earthquake rupture dynamics, and is proved to be a powerful tool to deal with problems on complex fault system. However, since this method heavily lies on the specific forms of Green＇s function and only the Green＇s function in full-space has a closed analytic expression, it is usually limited to a full-space medium. In this study, as a first step to extend this method to an arbitrary complex fault system in half-space, the boundary integral equations （BIEs） for dynamic strike-slip on vertical complex fault system in half-space are derived based on exact Green＇s function for isotropic and homogeneous half-space. Effect of the geometry of the complex fault system are dealt with carefully. Final BIEs is composed of two parts： contribution from full-space, which has been thoroughly investigated by Aochi and his co-workers by using the Green＇s function for full-space, and that from free surface, which is studied in detail in this study.

Intercontinental response to variations in the Arabia-Eurasia Plate convergence,calcite e-twin evidence of the Kuhbanan Fault system,Central Iran

Variations in the plate convergence direction have generally reflected on the kinematics of the major fault zones developed in the intercontinental parts of the collision zones.The Kuhbanan Fault system is one of the most important intercontinental faults in the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone with a dextral strike slip mechanism.This fault system is composed of three fault strands including Kuhbanan,Bazargan,and Kerman Faults.Here we used calcite e-twin analysis of the vein samples developed in these fault zones to reconstruct deformation condition and the paleodifferential stress direction and magnitude at the Kuhbanan Fault system.Our results represent 190°C-200°C of the deformation temperature and related 5–6±1 km of deformation depth at the Kuhbanan Fault system.Calculated paleodifferential stress magnitude in the Kuhbanan Fault system using e-twin parameters ranges from 169-196 MPa similar to the inner parts of the orogenic systems.Comparing the data set of the Kuhbanan Fault system with previous studies at the Zagros orogen represents an increase of deformation depth and paleodifferential stress magnitudes from the foreland of the Zagros orogen to its hinterland and finally northward around the Kuhbanan Fault system in the central Iranian blocks.We have also proposed a shift of the stress direction from paleo NE to recent N directed by comparing paleostress direction deduced from the calcite e-twin and recent stress direction calculated from GPS and earthquake data analysis around the Kuhbanan Fault system.This kinematics change due to plate reorganization is in agreement with the observed regional variation in convergence direction all in the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone.

Interseismic deformation rate of the Haiyuan fault system based on the modified SBAS method

Radar interferograms are usually influenced by factors such as atmospheric artifacts,orbital errors,and terrain errors.It is difficult to reduce the influence by using the conventional small baseline subset(SBAS)method when determining the deformation rate.This study uses the adjustment model with systematic parameters to improve the conventional SBAS method and employs it to determine the interseismic deformation rate of the Haiyuan fault system,providing a data reference for exploring the locking depth,strain accumulation state,and potential seismic risk assessment of different segments of the Haiyuan fault system.The results are as follows:(1)the simulation experiment verifies the feasibility and robustness of the modified SBAS method.This method can effectively reduce the influence of residual signals such as atmospheric artifacts,orbital errors and terrain errors in the interferograms.The deformation rate map can be significantly improved;(2)the deformation rate field in the radar’s Line of Sight(LOS)direction shows that there are obvious differences between the north and south sides of Haiyuan fault system,which is consistent with the characteristics of the left-lateral strike-slip movement of the Haiyuan fault system.The deformation rate field and profiles reflect the complex trends among different segments of Haiyuan fault system in detail.(3)the deformation rate of the Jingtai pull-apart basin is higher than that of the surrounding areas,possibly indicating strong regional activity,which provides a reference for studying the seismic risk of the Jingtai pull-apart basin;and(4)the interseismic deformation rate and profiles across the fault show that the middle section of the Lao Hu Shan(LHS)segment and the western and middle sections of the Haiyuan segment are locked.

Preliminary study of gravimetric anomalies in the Magallanes-Fagnano fault system,South America

The main objective of this research is to recognize several geological structures associated with the shear zones of the MFFS（Magallanes-Fagnano fault system） by the analysis and interpretation of gravimetric anomalies. Besides, to compare the gravimetrical response of the cortical blocks that integrate the region under study, which is related to the different morphotectonic domains recognized in the region. This research was developed employing data obtained from World Gravity 1.0, which includes earth and satellite gravity data derived from the EGM2008 model. The study and interpretation of the MFFS from the analysis and processing of the gravimetric data, allowed appreciation of a noticeable correlation with the most superficial cortical structure.

The Dihedral Angle and Intersection Processes of a Conjugate Strike-Slip Fault System in the Tarim Basin, NW China

Recent studies, focused on dihedral angles and intersection processes, have increased understandings of conjugate fault mechanisms. We present new 3-D seismic data and microstructural core analysis in a case study of a large conjugate strike-slip fault system from the intracratonic Tarim Basin, NW China. Within our study area, ＂X＂ type NE and NW trending faults occur within Cambrian- Ordovician carbonates. The dihedral angles of these conjugate faults have narrow ranges, 19~ to 62~ in the Cambrian and 26~ to 51~ in the Ordovician, and their modes are 42~ and 44~ respectively. These data are significantly different from the ~60~ predicted by the Coulomb fracture criterion. It is concluded that： （1） The dihedral angles of the conjugate faults were not controlled by confining pressure, which was low and associated with shallow burial; （2） As dihedral angles were not controlled by pressure they can be used to determine the shortening direction during faulting; （3） Sequential slip may have played an important role in forming conjugate fault intersections; （4） The conjugate fault system of the Tarim basin initiated as rhombic joints; these subsequently developed into sequentially active ＂X＂ type conjugate faults; followed by preferential development of the NW-trending faults; then reactivation of the NE trending faults. This intact rhombic conjugate fault system presents new insights into mechanisms of dihedral angle development, with particular relevance to intracratonic basins.

Late Quaternary Slip-rates and Slip Partitioning on the Southeastern Xianshuihe Fault System, Eastern Tibetan Plateau

Quantitative analysis of the kinematics of the active faults distributed around the QinghaiTibetan Plateau is critical to understand current tectonic processes of the plateau. Chronological analysis, based on the comparison among regional climate and geomorphology, digital photogrammetry, offset landforms, and the tectonics were adopted in this study on the Xianshuihe fault in the eastern Tibetan plateau. Two or more offset-age data were obtained for each segment of the Xianshuihe and theYunongxi faults. The offset landforms, including river terrace, alluvial fan and glacial moraine, provide constraints for the late Quaternary slip rate of the Xianshuihe fault. The left-lateral strike slip rate of the Xianshuihe fault decreases from 17 mm/a on the northwest segment to 9.3 mm/a on the southeast segment. Regarding the Xianshuihe fault zone and its adjacent blocks as a regional tectonic system, vector analysis was used to quantitatively analyze the longitudinal kinematical transformation and transversal slip partitioning on the fault zone in terms of the kinematical parameters of the main faults within the zone. The results show that there is a distributed vertical uplift at a rate of 6.1 mm/yr caused by shortening across the Gongga Mountains region. Based on these results, we established a model of the slip partitioning for the southeastern segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone.

Late Cretaceous Transpressional Fault System: A Case Study of the Yishu Fault Belt, Shandong Province, Eastern China

On the basis of field observations of the structures of three profiles from the Linshu region, deformation characteristics and the tectonic background of the Yishu fault belt in the Late Cretaceous–Early Cenozoic have been discussed in detail.Three structural profiles, whose deformations consist mainly of earlier transpressional faults and later normal faults, were developed for the Mengtuan Formation of the Lower Cretaceous Dasheng Group.Typical positive flower structures, duplex structures, and break-through faults were found in these profiles.On the basis of analyses of the structural deformation and previous geochronological studies, it was concluded that the earlier transpressional faults of the profiles were triggered by the sinistral transpression of the Yishu fault belt in the Late Cretaceous–Early Paleogene, and that the later normal faults, formed during the Late Paleogene–Neogene extension, truncated the earlier transpressional faults.With consideration of the tectonic evolution of the Tan-Lu fault belt and the different drift directions of the Pacific plate since the Cretaceous, we suggest that the major tectonic events of the Late Cretaceous–Neogene in eastern China were mainly controlled by the subduction of the Pacific plate.

A New Growth Model of Fault Attributes in a Strike-Slip Fault System in the Tarim Basin

Fault attributes generally display a consistent power–law-scaling relationship.Based on new 3 D seismic data,however,we found some exceptional fault attribute relationships of lengths(L)–throw(T)(vertical component of displacement),overlap zone length(Lo)–width(Wo)from a strike-slip fault system of the Ordovician carbonates in the Tarim Basin.The L–T relationship shows two linear segments with breakup at^40 km in fault length.This presents an exceptional throw increase in the second stage,which is attributed to a localization of vertical displacement and deformation in overlapping zones other than the different fault scales in a mature fault zone.The Lo–Wo relationship in the overlapping zones shows multiply stepped-shape patterns,suggesting multiple fault differential growth and periodic increase in fault size.Therefore,we propose a new alternative growth model of fault attributes in strike-slip fault zones,in which the overlapping zones accumulated localized displacement and deformation in the intracratonic strike-slip fault zone.

Seismic Activity and Fractal Geometry of Kareh Bas Fault System in Zagros, South of Iran

Kareh Bas is one the transverse fault systems in Zagros fold-thrust belt. Kareh Bas Transcurrent Fault System with a total length of 200 Km is situated about 80 Km east of the Borazjan segment (a part of Kazerun fault zone) and 40 Km west of Shiraz. It is a nearly N-S trending right-lateral linked strike-slip fault system, and several anticlinal axes have been displaced by it. Strike separation (109 Km) of Mountain Front Fault/Flexure (MFF) of Zagros is the most important function of Kareh Bas Transcurrent Fault System. According to fractal analysis (Box-counting method) on space image maps (1:50,000) prepared from Spot data, fault related surface ruptures have non-linear patterns and fault segments have nearly plane form fractal dimensions;specially at north and south terminations. It means that, the north and south terminations of Kareh Bas Transcurrent Fault System are active (earthquake fault segments) and latter case is more active, because it is coinciding on Zagros mountain front faults (MFF).

Geometric Analysis of Davaran Fault System, Central Iran

One of the main faults of the Central Iran is Davaran Fault system which holds right-lateral strike slip with a pressure component. Contemporary activities of this fault signify the continuity of stresses up to now. Davaran fault system has extended parallel to Davaran Mountains. Most of the drainage networks of this region are located on trend of faults. The faults of this region are classified to 5 groups. These groups include conjugated faults of Riedel and Anti-Riedel (R, R'), normal faults (T), faults parallel with the major fault (Y) and faults approximately parallel with the main fault (P). T Faults are normal faults with tension mechanism. By calculation of sinuosity (Smf) of northeast and southwest mountain fronts of the region and ratio of valley floor width of the rivers flowing in the region to their wall height (Vf), it is specified that this region is active in terms of uplift and tectonics. The rivers have deep valley. Tectonic activity in northeast front is more active than southwest mountain front.