Interaction between in situ stress states and tectonic faults:A comment

Understanding the in situ stress state is crucial in many engineering problems and earth science research.The present article presents new insights into the interaction mechanism between the stress state and faults.In situ stresses can be influenced by various factors,one of the most important being the existence of faults.A fault could significantly affect the value and direction of the stress components.Reorientation and magnitude changes in stresses exist adjacent to faults and stress jumps/discontinuities across the fault.By contrast,the change in the stress state may lead to the transformation of faulting type and potential fault reactivation.Qualitative fault reactivation assessment using characteristic parameters under the current stress environment provides a method to assess the slip tendency of faults.The correlation between in situ stresses and fault properties enhances the ability to predict the fault slip tendency via stress measurements,which can be used to further refine the assessment of the fault reactivation risk.In the future,stress measurements at greater depths and long-term continuous real-time stress monitoring near/on key parts of faults will be essential.In addition,much attention needs to be paid to distinguishing the genetic mechanisms of abnormal stress states and the type and scale of stress variations and exploring the mechanisms of pre-faulting anomaly and fault reactivation.

Effect of Poisson’s ratio on stress state in the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake fault

The Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake occurred on the Longmenshan fault which inclines at a dip angle exceeding 60 degrees. Since most thrust earthquakes occur on faults with dip angles of about 30 degrees, it is enigmatic why the Wenchuan earthquake occurred on such a steep fault. In this study we use a simple finite element model to investigate how the stress state in the fault changes with the variation of Poisson＇s ratio. The results show that, with the Poisson＇s ratio in the fault increasing, the magnitudes of the principal stresses increase and the maximum Shear stress decrease, and, especially, the angle between the maximum principal stress and the fault plane decreases, which will enhance the driving force to overcome the frictional resistance on the fault. The increase of Poisson＇s ratio in the fault may be an important factor to affect the occurrence of the fault earthquakes with large angles between maximum principal stress and fault plane.

Reexamining the Seismological Implications of the Present-day Stress State of the Yingxiu-Beichuan Fault after the Wenchuan Earthquake

The present-day stress state of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault after the Wenchuan earthquake was re-estimated using measured in-situ stress data obtained after the Wenchuan earthquake. The results reveal that the gradient coefficients of principal stresses versus depth decrease from south to north along the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault, revealing that the stress level decreases from south to north. The consistency between the present-day stress levels and surface ruptures generated during the earthquake indicates that the accumulated tectonic stress beneath the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault before the Wenchuan earthquake was relieved in form of surface ruptures. This resulted in the stress remaining high in the southern section of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault but relatively low in the northern section. Abnormal high pore pressure conditions and an extremely low frictional coefficient play important role in the interpretation of the stress field adjustment and seismic events observed after the Wenchuan earthquake along this fault, according to the estimation results using the Coulomb frictional-failure theory incorporating frictional coefficients ranging from 0.4 to 1.0. To accurately estimate the seismological hazard of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault by analyzing fault instability using the Coulomb frictional-failure theory, much attention should be focused on the pore pressure conditions and the evolution state of the frictional coefficient under the present-day stress state.

2022年四川芦山M_(S)6.1地震前应力状态研究

为研究2022年6月1日四川芦山M_(S)6.1地震的孕育和发生过程,采用CAP方法反演了2013年芦山M_(S)7.0主震及M_(S)≥5.0余震的震源机制解,并基于应力张量方差与b值时空分布特征,探讨了芦山M_(S)6.1地震的力学机制和震源区的应力状态。结果表明:2022年芦山M_(S)6.1地震震源机制表现出与2013年芦山M_(S)7.0主震和5级余震相似的逆冲型破裂特征,压应力轴方位与龙门山断裂带南段区域应力场一致。2013年芦山M_(S)7.0地震后震中及附近的应力张量方差和b值长期处于低值状态,2022年芦山M_(S)6.1地震前震中及附近出现了应力张量方差和b值的低值异常,表明芦山余震区处于较高的应力水平。分析认为:巴颜喀拉块体持续东向运动受到华南块体的阻挡,震中所在区域长期受挤压逆冲作用,从而使芦山余震区长期处于应力积累的状态,芦山M_(S)6.1地震也是在这种动力学背景下发生的。

2024年新疆乌什M_(S)7.1地震发震断层产状及其动力学探讨

大地震发生后,断层面产状快速确定对震后趋势判定具有重要参考价值。本文收集2024年新疆乌什M_(S)7.1地震序列的震源机制数据,对多家机构计算的该地震震源机制解进行中心解求解后,对震源机制的节面进行聚类分析,去掉噪声点的震源机制得到两簇结果,发现标准差较小的第二簇中心节面可能为发震断层面。然后,为进一步通过断层面与应力场关系验证可能的发震断层面,收集了该地区历史震源机制资料,反演得到乌什地震震源区的构造应力场,发现该地区受到NW—SE向的挤压应力和近垂直向的拉张应力;将应力场分别投影到两簇节面上,发现标准差较小的第二簇中心节面处于剪应力较大区域,并且正应力也有利于该中心节面破裂。综合其他资料分析,本研究推测2024年新疆乌什M_(S)7.1地震发震断层为NW向、低倾角断层,走向为244.62°,倾角为46.19°。

Tectonic Stress State Changes Before and After the Wenchuan M_s 8.0 Earthquake in the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

Crustal tectonic activities are essentially the consequences of the accumulation and release of in situ stress. Therefore, studying the stress state near active faults is important for understanding crustal dynamics and earthquake occurrences. In this paper, using in situ stress measurement results obtained by hydraulic fracturing in the vicinity of the Longmenshan fault zone before and after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake and finite element modeling, the variation of stress state before and after the Wenchuan M. 8.0 earthquake is investigated. The results show that the shear stress, which is proportional to the difference between principal stresses, increases with depth and distance from the active fault in the calm period or after the earthquakes, and tends to approach to the regional stress level outside the zone influenced by the fault. This distribution appears to gradually reverse with time and the change of fault properties such as frictional strength. With an increase in friction coefficient, low stress areas are reduced and areas with increased stress accumulation are more obvious near the fault. In sections of the fault with high frictional strengths, in situ stress clearly increases in the fault. Stress accumulates more rapidly in the fault zone relative to the surrounding areas, eventually leading to a stress field that peaks at the fault zone. Such a reversal in the stress field between the fault zone and surrounding areas in the magnitude of the stress field is a potential indicator for the occurrence of strong earthquakes.

2023年甘肃积石山M_(S)6.2地震对周围断层的应力影响及对余震的触发作用

2023年12月18日,甘肃省临夏州积石山县发生M_(S)6.2地震,震中位于拉脊山断裂带。为深度剖析本次地震对周围断层和后续地震的静态库仑破裂应力影响,文章基于地震破裂模型参数和弹性半空间模型,计算积石山M_(S)6.2地震在周围主要断层上不同深度产生的静态库仑破裂应力变化,并评估这些应力变化对未来地震危险性的影响。结果显示:本次地震使青海南山—循化南山断裂、拉脊山北缘断裂和拉脊山南缘断裂部分区域的库仑破裂应力显著增加,青海南山—循化南山断裂东段的库仑破裂应力增加远超出静态应力触发阈值,并达到了0.022 MPa,表现出较高地震危险性;其他断层也呈现出不同程度的库仑应力变化,拉脊山北缘断裂和拉脊山南缘断裂部分区域的应力卸载量达到了万帕,青海南山—循化南山断裂除东段外的其他分段和庄浪河断裂的应力卸载量达到了百帕。对不同震源深度下断层库仑破裂应力变化进行对比分析,发现深度变化对此次地震库仑破裂应力变化模式影响很大。文章还计算了本次地震在较大余震断层面上的库仑破裂应力,结果表明:甘肃积石山M_(S)6.2地震在后续三次M_(S)≥4地震的断层面上产生的库仑破裂应力分别为0.024 MPa、0.033 MPa和0.034 MPa,均超过触发阈值(0.01 MPa),表明M_(S)6.2地震对这三次地震具有明显的触发作用。文章可为该地区未来地震可能性与危险性的评估提供一定的参考。

Stress-Deformed State of Geological Environment and Prognosis of Antropogenic-Tectonic Earthquakes

The highest priorities of any civilized country are in providing interests of social safety.The anthropogenic influence on geological environment is becoming greater because of the human activities increase. That’s why anthropogenic-tectonic earthquake problem has become important recently.It appeared as a hypothesis in the 30 s and became much clearer in 60 s.The anthropogenic-tectonic earthquake epiceneters are located not far from the surface and,as a rule。

2020年新疆伽师M_(S)5.4、M_(S)6.4两次中强地震发震构造探讨

2020年1月,新疆伽师连续发生M_(S)5.4、M_(S)6.4两次中强地震,震中分别位于天山南麓和塔里木盆地交界的推覆构造前缘。基于地震精定位和震源机制解揭示褶皱和逆冲带的深部几何结构对于理解这两次中强震发生机理具有重要的作用。本文利用18个区域固定地震台站资料,对2009年1月1日至2021年7月31日期间的地震展开重定位研究,并对伽师M_(S)5.4前震、M_(S)6.4主震以及7次4级以上余震开展震源机制求解,进一步反演得到震源区构造应力场。地震定位结果显示,整个地震序列呈NNW和EW2个优势方向分布,前震序列和余震序列在时空分布上存在明显差异,前震序列主要沿着NNW向展布,而余震主要在近EW向的奥兹格尔他乌断裂上展布,并表现出双层分布特征;震源机制反演结果表明,2020年1月18日伽师M_(S)5.4前震为一次走滑型地震事件,而伽师M_(S)S6.4主震和7次余震均为逆冲型事件;另外,应力场反演显示主震震源区为近NS向挤压特征,与该区域地表应力状态基本一致。结合上述结果以及周边地质构造背景,我们认为M_(S)5.4前震和M_(S)6.4主震的发震构造不同:1月18日M_(S)5.4前震发震构造为NNW向具有走滑性质略向W倾的隐伏断层,为“类转换断层”;而M_(S)6.4主震的发震构造为柯坪塔格推覆体中的EW向隐伏推覆盲逆断层,且触发了不同深度的发震断层面。M_(S)5.4前震和M_(S)6.4主震发震断层面走向和倾角的差异,反映了天山地区近NS向不均匀的构造挤压作用。。

凝胶孔对水化硅酸钙(C-S-H)力学性能影响的分子动力学模拟

本研究首先利用分子动力学分析了不同尺寸凝胶孔对水化硅酸钙(C-S-H)弹性力学参数的影响,然后模拟了不同受力状态下的受力变形性能,比较并分析了应力应变关系的特征参数变化。结果表明:C-S-H的体积模量、剪切模量和杨氏模量均随凝胶孔尺寸的增大而减小。凝胶孔会降低CS-H拉伸、压缩和剪切时的力学性能和变形性能,但不同受力状态下的影响程度不同。凝胶孔对抗拉强度的影响程度最大,对抗压和抗剪强度的影响程度较小且基本相同;对拉伸变形性能的影响程度最大,对压缩变形性能的影响程度最小。

Fault detection for nonlinear networked control systems based on fuzzy observer

Security and reliability must be focused on control sys- tems firstly, and fault detection and diagnosis （FDD） is the main theory and technology. Now, there are many positive results in FDD for linear networked control systems （LNCSs）, but nonlinear networked control systems （NNCSs） are less involved. Based on the T-S fuzzy-modeling theory, NNCSs are modeled and network random time-delays are changed into the unknown bounded uncertain part without changing its structure. Then a fuzzy state observer is designed and an observer-based fault detection approach for an NNCS is presented. The main results are given and the relative theories are proved in detail. Finally, some simulation results are given and demonstrate the proposed method is effective.

2020年1月19日伽师M_(S)6.4地震静态库仑应力触发及对周边断层影响研究

针对2005年以来南天山西段8次M_(S)≥5.0地震,计算静态库仑应力和主要断层的加卸载效应,结合余震空间展布,分析应力触发及对周边主要断层的影响,结果表明:2008年乌恰M_(S)6.9地震与2016年阿克陶M_(S)6.7地震的发生,对伽师M_(S)6.4地震的发生起到延缓作用;伽师M_(S)6.4地震震中NNE方向、SSW方向和NWW方向处于库仑应力加载区,随着应力持续积累,上述区域未来一段时间地震危险性增强;柯坪断裂绝大部分区域、迈丹—沙依拉姆断裂中段、喀拉铁克断裂西南段发生地震危险性较大。

Failure time variation derived from R–S relation: the role of the static stress perturbation

In general, earthquake cycle related to earthquake faulting could include four major processes which could be described by （1） fault locking, （2） self-acceleration or nucleation （possible foreshocks）, （3） coseismic slip, and （4） post-stress relaxation and afterslip. A sudden static stress change/perturbation in the surrounding crust can advance/ delay the fault instability or failure time and modify earth- quake rates. Based on a simple one-dimensional spring-sli- der block model with the combination of rate-and-state- dependent friction relation, in this study, we have approxi- mately derived the simple analytical solutions of clock advance/delay of fault failures caused by a sudden static Coulomb stress change applied in the different temporal evolution periods during an earthquake faulting. The results have been used in the physics-based explanation of delayed characteristic earthquake in Parkfield region, California, in which the next characteristic earthquake of M 6.0 after 1966 occurred in 2004 instead of around 1988 according to its characteristic return period of 22 years. At the same time, the analytical solutions also indicate that the time advance/ delay in Coulomb stress change derived by the dislocation model has a certain limitation and fundamental flaw. Fur- thermore, we discussed the essential difference between rate- and state-variable constitutive （R-S） model and Coulomb stress model used commonly in current earthquake triggering study, and demonstrated that, in fact, the Coulomb stress model could be involved in the R-S model. The results, we have obtained in this study, could be used in the development of time-dependent fault interaction model and the probability calculation related to the time-dependent and renewal earthquake prediction model.

2022年9月5日四川泸定M_(S)6.8地震震区剪切波分裂特征

1引言据中国地震台网测定,北京时间2022年9月5日12时52分在四川省甘孜州泸定县发生了M_(S)6.8强震,地震发生在鲜水河断裂南东段端部。全长约350km的NW-SE向鲜水河断裂西北起于甘孜州,向东南经炉霍、道孚、康定、泸定至石棉附近,它不仅是青藏高原物质SE向挤出的东北边界断裂带,也是分隔巴颜喀拉块体与川滇块体的重要构造分界线。

多期构造应力控制走滑断控储层发育机理与差异性研究——以塔里木盆地顺北地区为例

塔里木盆地顺北油气田发育典型走滑断控缝洞型储层。区别于受原始沉积相带控制的基质孔洞、受岩溶改造的洞穴等储集类型,走滑断控缝洞型储层的形成主要受断裂活动期构造应力导致的破裂作用控制。为研究走滑断裂多期活动背景下构造应力控制的断控储层发育机理与分布规律,综合应用野外、岩心、测录井、地震及钻井动态等资料,开展不同走滑断裂、同一走滑断裂沿走向不同部位、垂向不同层系断控储层发育特征表征,并结合应力场数值模拟手段开展多期构造应力恢复,预测断控储层发育的主要时期与分布规律。结果表明,走滑断裂活动期不同分段内部应力状态差异显著,其中拉分段内部以张应力为主,主要派生张性裂缝;压隆段内部以挤压应力为主,派生裂缝类型多样。顺北地区勘探目的层奥陶系一间房组顶面断控裂缝主要在加里东中期Ⅲ幕及加里东晚期—海西早期发育,海西中—晚期及之后裂缝基本不发育,且滑移距大的顺北18号断裂带较顺北1号断裂带派生裂缝开度、密度更高。走滑断控储层具有“簇状”结构特征,断裂活动期不同分段内部应力状态控制储层结构差异,拉分段“空腔”多,以“双簇”结构为主,核带规模大,压隆段核带结构多,以“多簇”结构为主,分割性强;走滑断裂活动期应力强度控制储集空间类型与规模,小型断裂储集空间以裂缝为主,大型断裂带发育核带结构,断控储层规模与断裂活动强度呈正相关关系;断控裂缝发育主要受断裂早期活动控制,晚期由于地层埋深增大,岩石不易破裂,新派生裂缝发育较少。

地震亚失稳过程中前兆异常演化的综合解释——以2014年鲁甸6.5级地震为例

文中以2014年鲁甸6.5级地震为例,在亚失稳实验及理论指导下,基于震前地震活动及地球物理观测资料并结合地震成核数值模拟结果,综合分析前兆异常时空演化与亚失稳过程的关系,首次提供了一个可明确佐证亚失稳阶段震源区成核、震源区附近协同化过程持续加剧的典型震例和观测事实。研究结果显示,依据大区域强震活动及流动重力观测,可判定鲁甸地震前研究区已处于高应力状态。在高应力背景判定的基础上,依据地震活动及地球物理观测前兆异常,可粗略判定鲁甸地震亚失稳过程可能起始于震前7、8个月,最突出的现象或判定指标是由震中附近小地震活跃所表征的断层应力状态由积累为主向释放为主的转变,以及由定点地球物理观测异常数量显著增加所表征的断层运动协同化现象,从地震成核的角度与成核后期核心弱化区扩张过程有关。之后至主震发生,还有2个时间节点需要关注:一是震前4、5个月,定点地球物理观测异常空间分布范围自震中附近向外围的明显扩展,显示断层变形的加速协同化;二是震前2个月之后,震中附近小地震活动开始减弱、微震活动及定点地球物理异常出现向震中的迁移收缩,与地震成核过程核心弱化区扩展之后的收缩过程相关联。

T-S模糊重要度分析方法研究

针对故障树分析中部件失效概率、故障状态和系统故障机理的不确定性问题,用模糊子集来表示部件的失效可能性,用模糊数来描述部件和系统的故障状态,用T-S模糊模型来描述部件之间的联系,在T-S模糊故障树分析算法基础上,提出两种T-S模糊重要度:拓展传统二态系统模糊重要度的重心法,综合部件所有故障状态的失效可能性对系统重要程度的影响,定义多态系统T-S模糊重要度,并由算例对比得出,传统模糊重要度可看作是T-S模糊重要度的一个特例,T-S模糊重要度更为一般化;在仅已知部件故障状态的情况下,提出T-S状态重要度的概念及其计算方法。对某导航系统进行重要度分析,验证了算法的有效性。

基于T-S模糊故障树和贝叶斯网络的多态液压系统可靠性分析

为解决T-S模糊故障树分析方法在液压系统可靠性分析过程中运算复杂和只能单向推理的问题,提出一种基于T-S模糊故障树与贝叶斯网络的多态系统可靠性分析方法。根据给出的T-S模糊故障树向贝叶斯网络转化的方法确定贝叶斯网络的模型结构与条件概率表,利用贝叶斯网络的推理算法计算顶事件发生概率、事件后验概率以及底事件重要度。该方法既能进行计算系统可靠性指标及重要度的前向推理,又能进行故障诊断的反向推理,而且计算公式简单。最后通过900t提梁机液压驱动系统工程实例验证了算法的可行性与有效性。

汶川M_S8.0地震对龙门山断裂带附近地应力环境影响初探——以北川、江油地区为例

为探讨汶川MS8.0地震对龙门山断裂带现今地应力环境的影响,2009年10—12月,在龙门山断裂带的北川、江油地区开展了3个200m深度钻孔水压致裂地应力测量,获得了汶川MS8.0地震发生1年多以后断裂带附近地壳浅表层地应力环境.根据研究区内的原地应力测量结果及汶川MS8.0地震引起的断层错动等资料,运用线弹性有限元数值模拟方法,计算得到了由断层错动位移所产生的附加应力,并推算了ZK02和ZK03位置震前应力分布特征.通过对比分析,揭示了断裂带附近地应力场的变化规律,探讨了汶川MS8.0地震对龙门山断裂带附近地应力环境的影响.

基于T-S模糊故障树的多态系统性能可靠性

T-S模糊故障树是由一系列具有IF-THEN规则的T-S逻辑门构成的故障树,可以解决复杂系统可靠性分析中故障多态、故障机理不明确、底事件失效率难以精确得知的问题。目前该方法主要分析系统中的功能故障问题。实际中,复杂多态系统内部很多故障常常会造成性能降级,出现多性能状态,进而系统在不同的故障状态下具有不同的性能可靠性。通过对T-S模糊故障树所表示的系统赋予性能变量及故障多态下的不同性能值,利用统计学中的期望思想,提出一种分析系统故障多态下的性能可靠性方法,以及已知某一底事件或中间事件在故障状态下分析系统性能可靠性的方法。通过对目前大型飞机上常用的航空电子交互式以太网(Avionics full duplex switched ethernet,AFDX)进行分析建树,利用该方法求解系统在多故障状态下的性能可靠性,进行了实例分析。