While the markets debate China’s latest round of economic growth,national regulators are focusing on an equally important factor in the economy—financial cycles.In its latest quarterly monetary policy implementation...While the markets debate China’s latest round of economic growth,national regulators are focusing on an equally important factor in the economy—financial cycles.In its latest quarterly monetary policy implementation report,the People’s Bank of China(PBOC),the nation’s central bank,devoted a special column to this concept,describing it as an"increasingly significant issue"that should be handled with macroprudential approaches to prevent展开更多
Based on the stylized facts of financial crises and systemic risk accumulation, this paper constructs a new financial imbalance index （FII） from the perspective of endogenous financial cycles and assesses its applic...Based on the stylized facts of financial crises and systemic risk accumulation, this paper constructs a new financial imbalance index （FII） from the perspective of endogenous financial cycles and assesses its application in China＇s macro-financial analysis. The results show that the FII is not only an effective index to detect financial imbalances in China＇s economic cycles, but is also more accurate than and plays more of a leading role than conventional indicators, such as the consumer price index, the financial conditions index and the purchasing managers indicator. Empirical analysis shows that the FII can be used as an effective indicator to measure systemic financial risk, and can provide policy-makers and market participants with useful information to make appropriate decisions.展开更多
文摘While the markets debate China’s latest round of economic growth,national regulators are focusing on an equally important factor in the economy—financial cycles.In its latest quarterly monetary policy implementation report,the People’s Bank of China(PBOC),the nation’s central bank,devoted a special column to this concept,describing it as an"increasingly significant issue"that should be handled with macroprudential approaches to prevent
基金financial support from the National Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12&ZD089)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71403277)
文摘Based on the stylized facts of financial crises and systemic risk accumulation, this paper constructs a new financial imbalance index （FII） from the perspective of endogenous financial cycles and assesses its application in China＇s macro-financial analysis. The results show that the FII is not only an effective index to detect financial imbalances in China＇s economic cycles, but is also more accurate than and plays more of a leading role than conventional indicators, such as the consumer price index, the financial conditions index and the purchasing managers indicator. Empirical analysis shows that the FII can be used as an effective indicator to measure systemic financial risk, and can provide policy-makers and market participants with useful information to make appropriate decisions.
