Regional Financial Development and Regional Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Suzhou City, China

There are many defects in researches on the relationship of the regional financial development (FD) and economic growth of China, such as simply assuming the causality direction, not highlighting financial institution, using incomplete financial indicator, etc. This article, taking Suzhou City of Jiangsu Province, China as a case, builds a simple model to study the level of FD from three aspects of financial scale, structure and institution. Three original indicators of PRIVY (private investment/aggregate investment), DEPTH (aggregate loan/GDP) and FDIVG (FDI/GDP) are used to construct the FD economic indicator through Principal Component Analysis approach. Then we use Granger method to analyze the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou. Empirical test results show that the FD of Suzhou is the Granger reason of economic growth, while economic growth is not the reason for FD, because the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou is just in the ″supply-leading″ period. In terms of Suzhou experiences, the local government should strengthen the protection of private investment, improve the institutional environment, and establish the reasonable financial structure. So we can concluded that FD could play a great role in promoting economic growth at the economy takeoff stage.

Financial sector development and economic growth:evidence from Cameroon

For decades,African economies have embarked on financial sector reforms.However,the empirical implications of these reforms have been divergent.This paper investigates the impact of financial development on Economic growth using time series data in Cameroon.This investigation was carried out using three common indicators of financial development(broad money,deposit/GDP and domestic credit to private sector).Using the Auto Regressive Distributive Lag(ARDL)technique of estimation,it was discovered that there exist a short-run positive relationship between monetary mass(M2),government expenditure and economic growth,a short run negative relationship between bank deposits,private investment and economic growth equally exists.However in the long run,all indicators of financial development show a positive and significant impact on economic growth.This paper thus confirms the existence of a positive and long-term impact of all the indicators of financial development on economic growth through bound test.It is therefore proposed that the financial reforms in Cameroon should be pushed forward in order to boost the development of the financial sector thus an increase in its role on economic growth.

Exploring the moderating role of financial development in environmental Kuznets curve for South Africa:fresh evidence from the novel dynamic ARDL simulations approach

The extant literature has produced mixed evidence on the relationship between finan-cial development and ecological sustainability.This work addresses this conundrum by investigating financial development’s direct and indirect consequences on ecologi-cal quality utilizing the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)methodological approach.Our empirical analysis is based on the novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations approach for South Africa between 1960 and 2020.The results,which used five distinct financial development measures,demonstrate that financial develop-ment boosts ecological integrity and environmental sustainability over the long and short terms.In the instance of South Africa,we additionally confirm the validity of the EKC theory.More importantly,the outcomes of the indirect channels demonstrate that financial development increases energy usage’s role in causing pollution while attenuating the detrimental impacts of economic growth,trade openness,and foreign direct investment on ecological quality.Moreover,the presence of an inadequate financial system is a requirement for the basis of the pollution haven hypothesis(PHH),which we examine using trade openness and foreign direct investment variables.PHH for both of these variables disappears when financial development crosses specified thresholds.Finally,industrial value addition destroys ecological quality while tech-nological innovation enhances it.This research provides some crucial policy recom-mendations and fresh perspectives for South Africa as it develops national initiatives to support ecological sustainability and reach its net zero emissions goal.

Research on the Impact of Financial Development on TFP—— DEA-Malmquist Index and Hansen Threshold Model Based on Panel Data of Shandong Province, China

Shandong’s TFP growth is higher than Chinese average,but the growth rate has slowed in recent years,appearing the phenomenon that the growth momentum of Shandong’s TFP is insufficient.Using DEA-Malmquist Index to measure Shandong’s TFP growth rate,empirical research from the perspective of financial development finds that financial scale,efficiency of financial institutions,fiscal intervention,and scale of foreign capital utilization have significant nonlinear effects on the growth of TFP.Furtherly,through threshold analysis,the efficiency of financial institutions has a significant threshold effect on TFP growth.Financial scale and fiscal intervention are the main core variables that affect the growth of TFP under the threshold effect,and they have the same effect direction on TFP before and after the threshold value.However,the effect intensity of these two core variables on TFP is different.

Socio-Economic Inequality and Economic Growth: Measurements for Central and Eastern Europe

The objective of this work is the study of social and economic inequality in the space of Central and Eastern Europe and its impact on economic growth. Our study includes a three-stage methodology:(1) application of a clustering method based on neural network (Self Organising Maps), to the series of panel data in order to divide countries into clusters, corresponding to the degree of economic and social inequality;(2) computing a composed index of economic and social inequality, using Principal Component Analysis and an extension of the method provided by OECD for computing composite indicators;(3) constructing an econometric model to establish the impact of social and economic inequality on economic growth and a VAR model to determine the causality between main determinants to growth and inequality as well as the response to shocks to the dynamics of the variables. The 24 Eastern and Central European countries have been grouped in five clusters, according to 11 attributes. In the results obtained, the third cluster comprises countries with the most equitable income distribution: Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Slovak Republic, Slovenia. To the opposite side is the fifth cluster with the deepest inequality, including only one country, namely Georgia. The second and third steps of our methodology, were applied only for the extreme clusters namely, the clusters with the highest (C5) and lowest (C3) inequality respectively.

The Effects of Financial Structure on Urban-Rural Income Gap Viewed through Economic Growth and Urbanization

From the perspective of economic growth and urbanization,this paper proposes several hypotheses on how financial structure affects urban-rural income gap combining with the stylized facts of Chinese economy,and then uses a panel data of 29 provinces over 1996-2015 to conduct empirical analysis.Theoretical analysis shows that owing to the distinct availability of urban and rural residents for financial services,financial structure has a distinct impact on their income disparity.Meanwhile,through the function of credit allocation,financial structure plays important roles in the processes of economic growth and urbanization,and then has indirect effects.The results indicate that increasing the ratio of direct financing has a direct impact on shrinking the urban-rural income gap,and has an indirect impact through economic growth and urbanization.More importantly,the intermediary effect of urbanization is stronger than that of economic growth.Therefore,releasing the controls on financial markets helps shrink the urban-rural income gap in China.

The threshold effect of the urban-rural income disparity on real economic growth in China

鉴于我国的城乡二元结构，本文使用泰尔指数度量和刻画我国的城乡收入差距及其变化特征。同时，本文设定了非线性阈值协整模型，以揭示我国改革开放以来城乡收入差距与实际经济增长的长期非线性关系。结果表明，长期非线性闽值关系在泰尔指数为0．100（阈值）处发生机制转移：1978—1991年，我国城乡收入差距对实际增长的长期效应为正；1992—1999年，收入差距对实际增长的效应由正向负平滑转换；1999年后，我国城乡收入差距对实际经济增长产生阻滞作用，且负效应呈逐年增加趋势。

我国宏观收入分配结构测算及对经济增长的影响研究——基于新中国成立以来长序列数据的实证

本文利用资金流量表、住户收支调查、财政收支等数据,采用拟合法对1952年以来我国宏观收入分配结构进行系统测算,深入分析新中国成立至今我国宏观收入分配结构的发展变化,并以住户部门收入份额和劳动者报酬占比为主要指标,对比分析我国宏观收入分配结构与发达经济体的差异。基于数据测算和分析,进一步使用1953—2022年的时间序列数据构建多元线性回归模型和滚动回归模型,实证检验收入分配相关指标对消费及经济增长的影响。研究结果显示,第一,新中国成立以来我国住户部门收入份额总体呈现波动下降态势,2008年国际金融危机之后逐步有所回升,住户部门收入份额平均高于劳动者报酬占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重20个百分点左右。第二,与美国、欧洲、日本等经济体进行同期对比显示,我国住户部门收入份额低约20个百分点,从相似发展阶段对比看也低10个百分点左右;住户部门收入份额差距大于我国劳动者报酬占比与发达经济体的差距,表明我国住户部门收入份额偏低与再分配的调节作用不足有关。第三,实证研究显示,投资、消费和出口都是我国经济增长的重要动力;提高住户部门收入份额对消费的促进作用大于对资本形成的抑制作用,有助于带动经济增长,但从其作用效果的发展变化看,提高住户部门收入份额对消费的提振作用有边际递减趋势。

金融集聚对区域经济增长的影响研究——以中国31个省市为例

在新发展要求下,打造新型区域金融发展中心,有助于促进国内国际双循环、整合金融资源以及优化资源配置,进而助力于经济增长。文章基于2010—2021年我国省际面板数据,利用各省市的金融集聚水平,探索金融集聚对区域经济增长的影响。研究发现金融集聚水平提高会对一个地区的经济增长起正向显著效应。最后,文章基于实证分析的结论,对金融集聚的提升和地区经济的增长提出政策建议。未来我们应加快完善现代金融体系建设、持续优化区域经济结构与布局、不断发挥市场一体化发展优势,助力城市经济效率提升,为建设经济强国提供有力支撑。

包容性增长:技术进步推动共同富裕的条件机制——来自全球宏观面板数据的证据

现代信息通信技术(ICTs)发展是科技革命和产业进步的重要表征,对经济社会发展的作用日益突出。基于1990-2019年158个国家和地区的全球面板数据,探索ICTs和国家减贫的影响机理,进而从包容性视角出发分析ICTs发展对推动社会共同富裕的作用机制,研究发现:ICTs发展显著降低一国的绝对贫困和相对多维贫困,且减贫的边际效应具有U型特征。同时,ICTs对国家减贫的边际贡献在不同区域呈现差异化特征,并随时间推移而逐渐递减。ICTs借助促进经济增长和改善收入分配两条路径影响国家贫困治理,说明在兼顾效率和公平、实现包容性发展的基础上,ICTs进步最终有助于促进不同国家的共同富裕。

中国式现代化征程中再兴土地财政能实现共同富裕吗

共同富裕是社会主义的本质要求,而要实现共同富裕伟大目标必须缩小城乡居民收入差距。基于2004—2019年285个地级城市面板数据,运用SGMM模型,对地级城市在中国式现代化征程中继续推行土地财政模式能否实现城乡居民共同富裕的问题进行探索。结果显示:土地财政对城乡居民收入差距的影响呈现出“倒U型”路径,而对城市内部居民收入差距的影响为“正U型”,表明再推行土地财政模式可能继续拉大城市居民收入差距;土地财政拉大了农村居民收入差距,地级城市土地出让金额占城市预算收入的比重每提高1%,农村居民收入差距可能增加1.3%。机制检验结果显示,土地财政通过地级城市经济总量的快速扩张拉大居民收入差距。建议地级城市通过控制土地财政规模以防止城乡居民收入差距的再扩大,并逐步探索创新与改革土地财政模式,加快完善中国式经济发展中的利益分配与共享机制,有序实现城乡居民共同富裕。

数字经济赋能共同富裕的多维机理及其演化特征

新时代的共同富裕依托于数字经济的发展。文章构建了测度指标体系,并利用动态效应模型、门槛效应模型、中介效应模型等计量分析工具,从多个维度对数字经济赋能共同富裕的经济机理进行分析。研究结果显示,数字经济对于推进共同富裕战略目标存在正向、动态的边际作用,数字经济发展带来的收入增长效应起到了显著的中介效应,但当下数字经济的发展对“富裕”的贡献要大于对“共同”的贡献,滞后的收入分配制度是限制数字经济发挥全部驱动效应的重要原因。

金融行业发展对经济增长的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

基于金融发展服务于经济增长视角,构建两个VAR模型,选择1978年到2022年的GDP、M2、社会融资规模、股票成交额、债券成交额、期货成交额以及保险公司保费的时间面板数据分别实证分析了金融及其行业发展与经济增长的影响。主要分析了各指标与经济增长指标的Granger因果关系、Johansen协整关系以及脉冲响应函数等情况。通过分析发现,金融发展是经济增长的Granger原因,金融各行业发展均不是经济增长的Granger原因;经济发展受自身影响同时,金融及其行业发展变化对其也产生不小影响,债券成交额、M2、保险公司保费等影响较大。基于分析结论,提出了监管货币流通、畅通融通渠道、加强股票市场调整和监管、扩大保险业务范围、严厉整顿债券和期货市场等5条建议。

数字普惠金融能促进包容性增长吗?

包容性增长是经济发展追求的主要目标,是实现共同富裕的重要战略举措。数字普惠金融能否利用科技创新优势促进包容性增长,对中国社会更平衡、更充分发展至关重要。基于熵权法构建了中国30个省份的包容性增长总指数及经济可持续增长、收入分配和机会公平分指数,分析了中国不同地区的包容性增长现状,并从北京大学数字普惠金融指数和覆盖广度、使用深度、数字支持服务程度角度研究了数字普惠金融对包容性增长的影响。研究发现:中国包容性增长水平呈现“东—中—西”依次递减趋势,东部地区水平高、增速慢,中西部地区水平低但增速快,各地区包容性增长之间虽存在较大差异,但这一差异随着时间的变化而呈现缩小趋势。数字普惠金融对包容性增长有明显的正向影响,数字普惠金融能有效促进中国收入分配和机会公平。相比于东部地区,中西部地区数字普惠金融对包容性增长促进作用更为明显;在东部地区数字普惠金融主要是通过提高创新水平来促进包容性增长,在中西部地区主要通过提高创新水平和提高人力资本来促进包容性增长。研究有助于正确把握中国包容性增长的内在变化规律,科学认识数字普惠金融对包容性增长的影响机制和传导路径,对制定高质量的国家发展战略,促进经济高质量发展具有一定的理论参考价值。

经济增长、收入差距与共同富裕

中国经济高质量发展过程中,合理控制收入差距,减少并最终消灭贫困,迈向共同富裕,是实现中国式现代化的重要战略目标。本文研究经济增长对收入差距和农村居民收入水平的影响,运用“分位数-分位数”回归方法,探讨经济增长处于何种状态才能够促进经济稳定发展,同时收入差距不被过度拉大。研究发现:经济增长可能会拉大群体收入差距、城乡收入差距及行业收入差距,而对区域收入差距的扩大作用较小;相比经济出现萧条或过度繁荣,处于潜在水平的经济增长可以最大限度降低收入差距扩大;经济增长能够提高农村中低收入群体收入水平,减少贫困并扩大中等收入群体,推动共同富裕。经济增长虽在一定程度上扩大了收入差距,但在减少贫困方面取得了显著成效,为实现共同富裕作出了重要贡献。最后,文章建议实施跨周期与逆周期政策相结合,在确保经济稳定增长、平衡经济增长与收入差距之间关系的基础上促进共同富裕。

理解中国消费问题:典型事实、影响因素及政策建议

在当前需求动力转变和经济结构转型的背景下,充分释放消费潜力对于加快构建新发展格局和大力提振市场信心具有重要现实意义。国内方面,消费已经成为中国经济增长第一拉动力,反映出中国经济由投资拉动型逐渐转向为内需拉动型的发展模式;国际方面,中国最终消费率长期处于G20国家中的较低水平,表明未来提高消费率存在巨大空间。中国消费既受到经济增长、收入分配、人口因素、就业的影响,也受到宏观政策体系的直接和间接影响。为全面释放消费潜力,应采取如下措施:其一,要把保障就业放在宏观政策优先位置;其二,要完善社会保障体系,持续保障和改善民生;其三,要推动全国统一大市场建设,优化消费环境;其四,要积极发展与规范平台经济,提升消费品质。