Potential Impact for Issuing Libra in Financial Systems and Policy Implications

Cryptocurrency,which is a type of digital currency that uses cryptography for security and anti-counterfeiting measures,has become a hot topic in the financial market.Since cryptocurrency is new,and in the financial sector,new is stimulating.The features of cryptocurrency such as high process speed,strictly digital nature and low transaction costs that are not present in traditional financial systems.Considerably,cryptocurrency will inevitably lead to exciting new business models,financial opportunities,and online business strategies.In this paper we will analysis the characteristics of Libra,and put forward corresponding Libra’s impact on sovereign currency,financial regulation and commercial banks.

Construction and harmonious development of urban-rural com-paring fi nancial systems based on comparative advantages theory

There exist diferences between urban-rural financial systems,Generally,the development of unban financial industry has absolute advanages compared with rural financial industry.According to the Matthew Effect,the financial resources will flow into cities for higher benefit ,so rural areas are unable to obtain absolute advantages However,relative advantage theory of the comparative advantage theory of the comparative advantage theory provides an lmportant way to observe res[ectove advamtage of both city and country.Therefore,there are comparative advantages for the development of financial industry in both urban and rural areas.The respective comparative advantages of urban-rural financial systems will supply greater efficiency than that in current dual puttern condition.Closely connected with China＇s financial development and reform and the fact of recreation of urban-rural financial system,this paper tries to explain the comparative advantage of the urban-rural financial systems.The anaalysis of the comparative advantage between urban and rural finance is the clue for the bonndary between urban-rural financial systems.This paper analyzes the current situration of urban-rural financial system.Then it proposes some views and suggestions on how to develop and maintain these two systemw as well as how to promote their coordinative development.

The Formation Mechanism of Systemic Financial Risk under External Shocks

By incorporating both the fire sales contagion mechanism and the bankruptcy contagion mechanism into a bank network model,this paper examines how risks are generated under dynamic shocks.In particular,this paper constructs systemic risk indicators suitable for analyzing multiple rounds of contagion under different shocks(time dimension)and from institutions and assets(spatial dimension).Indicators that measure the indirect relevance between institutions and between assets are also innovatively built.It is found that due to deleveraging or bankruptcy among a large number of banks,the systemic risk exhibits an upward trend marked by intermittent jumps under varying intensities of shocks.Risks are generated mainly through the fire sales contagion mechanism of deleveraging under small shocks,and through the bankruptcy contagion mechanism under large shocks.In terms of influencing factors,a stronger indirect relevance,a lower leverage skewness and a higher leverage level in the banking system lead to higher risks.In particular,the influence of leverage skewness on systemic risk is stronger than that of leverage level.

China＇s Achilles Heel： The Banking System

China＇s robust economy is bringing unprecedented growth and prosperity to the country. However, there is ample evidence to suggest that weaknesses in the banking system and the slow progress in reforming those weaknesses may cause disruption to continued economic growth. Bad loan portfolios as well as inadequate capital ratios point to the lack of proper governance and credit cultures at many banks. Unless these issues are quickly and properly addressed, the economic engine that drives the country will be at risk.

Global Systemic Financial Risk Spillovers and Their External Shocks

The shock of the global financial crisis sparked widespread concern across the world about systemic financial risk and led to the reexamination of regulatory mechanisms.The traditional principle of“too big to fail”underwent a transformation into the new idea of“too interconnected to fail.”We used Directed Acyclic Graph(DAG)technology and network topology analysis to examine the dynamic evolution of global systemic financial risk and the risk trends in global financial markets from the perspective of network connectivity.Our findings show that financial markets in the Chinese Mainland are net receivers of risk spillovers and that systemic financial risk has a clear cross-market contagion effect due to a global volatility spillover scale of 64 percent.To maintain the stability and security of China’s financial markets,consideration should be given to the regulatory precept of“too interconnected to fail”in establishing macro-prudential risk prevention mechanisms.

MODELING AND FORECASTING OF STOCK MARKETS UNDER A SYSTEM ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK

This paper adopts the concept of dynamic feedback systems to model the behavior of financial markets, or more specifically, the stock market from a dynamic system point of view. Based on a feedback adaptation scheme, the authors model the movement of a stock market index within a framework that is composed of an internal dynamic model and an adaptive filter. The output-error model is adopted as the internal model whereas the adaptive filter is a time-varying state space model with instrumental variables. Its input-output behavior, and internal as well as external forces are then identified. Special attention has also been paid to the recent financial crisis by examining the movement of Dow Jones Industrial Average （DJIA） as an example to illustrate the advantage of the proposed framework. Supported by time-varying causality tests, five influential factors from economic and sentiment aspects are introduced as the input of this framework. Testing results show that the proposed framework has a much better prediction performance than the existing methods, especially in complicated economic situations. An application of this framework is also presented with focuses on forecasting the turning periods of the market trend. Realizing that a market trend is about to change when the external force begins to exhibit clear patterns in its frequency responses, the authors develop a set of rules to recognize this kind of clear patterns. These rules work well for stock indexes from US, China and Singapore.