Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) Sys- tem were used to ana...Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China (1961 1990) as our validation data, and the period (1991–2100) was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system (PRECIS). Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.展开更多
The paper gives a brief description about the current main forest fire danger rating systems in the world, which in- clude forest fire danger rating system used in Canada, USA, Australia, and other countries. It show...The paper gives a brief description about the current main forest fire danger rating systems in the world, which in- clude forest fire danger rating system used in Canada, USA, Australia, and other countries. It shows the composition, structure and development of the main fire danger rating systems. The limitations of those systems are also discussed. Through a comparison of the three main forest fire danger rating systems the paper describes their differences on development, fuel complex descriptions, inputs and outputs, and their applications and finds that the technologies of the Canadian forest fire danger rating system can be adopted for China to develop a national forest fire danger rating system. Two steps are needed to develop our own national forest fire danger rating system. Firstly, we apply the CFFDRS directly. Then some studies should be done to calibrate the FDRS to local weather and fuel characteristics.展开更多
The average temperature of northeastern China is expected to increase 2.22 and 2.55℃ under two scenarios selected from the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), i.e., A2 and B2, during the 2040s (2041-2...The average temperature of northeastern China is expected to increase 2.22 and 2.55℃ under two scenarios selected from the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), i.e., A2 and B2, during the 2040s (2041-2050), which will have an impact on fire activities in those areas. We calculated the output of regional climate models, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) on a scale of 50 km × 50 km. Meteorological data and fire weather index were interpolated to a scale of 1 km × 1 km by using ANUSPLIN software. The results show that the model of Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) had the ability to provide good temperature and precipitation estimates of the study area in the baseline period, by simulation. In the 2040s the mean FWI values of the study area will increase during most of the fire seasons under both selected scenarios, compared with the baseline period. Under scenario B2 the peak fire season will appear in advance. The changes of FWI ratio (2×CO2/l ×CO2) show that the potential burned areas will increase 20% under scenario B2 and lightly increase under scenario A2 in 2040s. The days of high, very high and extreme fire danger classes will add 5 and 18 d under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively. It suggests adapting the climate change through improving fuel management and enhancing the fighting abilities.展开更多
Recent remote monitoring surveys of smoke produced by burning and forest fires using weather radar equipment showed excellent preliminary results, but their progress is hindered due to the high operating cost of radar...Recent remote monitoring surveys of smoke produced by burning and forest fires using weather radar equipment showed excellent preliminary results, but their progress is hindered due to the high operating cost of radar systems. The fire danger rating index is a good indicator of the event occurrence probability, what contributes to the monitoring areas and adds value to the alert degree information. The application of FMA fire danger index "Formula de Monte Alegre" for areas in radar coverage radius of the S-band weather radar operated by the Meteorological Research Institute, IPMet, S^fo Paulo State University, efficiently optimize the use of the radar equipment, significantly reduce operational costs, enable new research and promise results which have already reduced the average response time between ignition and detection for less than 5 minutes. It reduces more than 50% response time considered optimal for conventional detection systems. Thus, the "FMA" values act as a trigger (on-off) in the remote monitoring system of forest fires, optimizing its use at low cost, avoiding the possible stress of equipment and enabling the advance of research monitoring, detection of burnings and forest fires using weather radar.展开更多
Forest fire is one of the main natural hazards because of its fierce destructiveness. Various researches on fire real time monitoring, behavior simulation and loss assessment have been carried out in many countries. A...Forest fire is one of the main natural hazards because of its fierce destructiveness. Various researches on fire real time monitoring, behavior simulation and loss assessment have been carried out in many countries. As fire prevention is probably the most efficient means for protecting forests, suitable methods should be developed for estimating the fire danger. Fire danger is composed of ecological, human and climatic factors. Therefore, the systematic analysis of the factors including forest characteristics, meteorological status, topographic condition causing forest fire is made in this paper at first. The relationships between biophysical factors and fire danger are paid more attention to. Then the parameters derived from remote sensing data are used to estimate the fire danger variables, According to the analysis, not only PVI (Perpendicular Vegetation Index) can classify different vegetation but also crown density is captured with PVI. Vegetation moisture content has high correlation with the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (LE) to potential ecapotranspiration (LEp). SI (Structural Index), which is the combination of TM band 4 and 5 data, is a good indicator of forest age. Finally, a fire danger prediction model, in which relative importance of each fire factor is taken into account, is built based on GIS.展开更多
Forest fires seriously threaten forestry resources and the life and property safety of people in mountainous areas of Lishui City. In this paper, a fire prevention concept with refined forecast and early warning of fo...Forest fires seriously threaten forestry resources and the life and property safety of people in mountainous areas of Lishui City. In this paper, a fire prevention concept with refined forecast and early warning of forest fire danger weather ratings in townships as the starting point, satellite real-time observation of fire spots, monitoring of the Internet of Things and other high-tech products as an implementation means, and strengthening forest fire prevention equipment and personnel in townships as a guarantee was established. The command system for rapid emergency response by cities, counties and townships should be improved. During the forest fire prevention period, fire sources should be strictly controlled, and the basic principles of forest fire fighting in townships should be implemented into the actual fire prevention and fire fighting work to eliminate forest fires in time at the initial stage and before the disaster.展开更多
In compartment fires (houses, buildings, underground, warehouse, etc.), smokes are a major dan- ger during firemen intervention. Most of the time, they are at high temperature (>800?C) and they flow everywhere thro...In compartment fires (houses, buildings, underground, warehouse, etc.), smokes are a major dan- ger during firemen intervention. Most of the time, they are at high temperature (>800?C) and they flow everywhere through many kinds of ducts, which leads to the propagation of the combustion by the creation other fires in places which may be far away from the initial fire. In this paper, we present a new approach of the problem, which allows to better follow the fire behavior and especially to detect the dangers that may appear and endanger firefighters. This approach consists in a mathematical analysis based on the comparison of moving averages centered in the past, calculated on the temperature recordings of the smokes. As a consequence, this method may allow to improve decision support in real time and therefore to improve the security and the efficiency of firefighters in their operations against that kind of fires.展开更多
Daxing’anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China. Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate chan...Daxing’anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China. Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate change for the region and provide a reference for applying adaptive measures for fire management. This study analyzed the changes in fire weather indices and the fire season under four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) for 2021-2050 using data from five global climate models together with observation data. The results showed that the analog data could project the average state of the climate for a given period but were not effective for simulating extreme weather conditions. Compared with the baseline period (1971-2000), the period 2021-2050 was predicted to have an increase in average temperature of 2.02-2.65 °C and in annual precipitation 25.4-40.3 mm, while the fire weather index (FWI) was predicted to increase by 6.2-11.2% and seasonal severity rating (SSR) by 5.5-17.2%. The DMC (Duff moisture code), ISI (initial spread index), BUI (build-up index), FWI and SSR were predicted to increase significantly under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Furthermore, days with high or higher fire danger rating were predicted to be prolonged by 3-6 days, with the change in the southern region being greater under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5.展开更多
A relatively perfect coalmine fire risk-evaluating and order-arranging model that includes sixteen influential factors was established according to the statistical information of the fully mechanized coalface ground o...A relatively perfect coalmine fire risk-evaluating and order-arranging model that includes sixteen influential factors was established according to the statistical information of the fully mechanized coalface ground on the uncertainty measure theory. Then the single-index measure function of sixteen influential factors and the calculation method of computing the index weight ground on entropy theory were respectively established. The value assignment of sixteen influential factors was carried out by the qualitative analysis and observational data, respectively, in succession. The sequence of fire danger class of four experimental coalfaces could be obtained by the computational aids of Matlab according to the confidence level criterion. Some conclusions that the fire danger class of the No.l, No.2 and No.3 coalface belongs to high criticality can be obtained. But the fire danger class of the No.4 coalface belongs to higher criticality. The fire danger class of the No.4 coalface is more than that of the No.2 coalface. The fire danger class of the No.2 coalface is more than that of the No.1 coalface. Finally, the fire danger class of the No.1 coalface is more than that of the No.3 coalface.展开更多
基金support by National Science and Technology Support Plan(2007BAC03A02)National Natural Science Foundation of China(30671695)
文摘Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China (1961 1990) as our validation data, and the period (1991–2100) was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system (PRECIS). Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.
基金Supported by the Beijing Fund of Natural Science (Grant No. 6042025),China NKBRSF Project (Grant No. 2001CB409600) and the fund of Forest Protection Laboratory,State Forestry Administration
文摘The paper gives a brief description about the current main forest fire danger rating systems in the world, which in- clude forest fire danger rating system used in Canada, USA, Australia, and other countries. It shows the composition, structure and development of the main fire danger rating systems. The limitations of those systems are also discussed. Through a comparison of the three main forest fire danger rating systems the paper describes their differences on development, fuel complex descriptions, inputs and outputs, and their applications and finds that the technologies of the Canadian forest fire danger rating system can be adopted for China to develop a national forest fire danger rating system. Two steps are needed to develop our own national forest fire danger rating system. Firstly, we apply the CFFDRS directly. Then some studies should be done to calibrate the FDRS to local weather and fuel characteristics.
基金supported by the Open Project Program of the State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,University of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. HZ2010-KF10)the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2007BAC03A02)
文摘The average temperature of northeastern China is expected to increase 2.22 and 2.55℃ under two scenarios selected from the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), i.e., A2 and B2, during the 2040s (2041-2050), which will have an impact on fire activities in those areas. We calculated the output of regional climate models, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) on a scale of 50 km × 50 km. Meteorological data and fire weather index were interpolated to a scale of 1 km × 1 km by using ANUSPLIN software. The results show that the model of Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) had the ability to provide good temperature and precipitation estimates of the study area in the baseline period, by simulation. In the 2040s the mean FWI values of the study area will increase during most of the fire seasons under both selected scenarios, compared with the baseline period. Under scenario B2 the peak fire season will appear in advance. The changes of FWI ratio (2×CO2/l ×CO2) show that the potential burned areas will increase 20% under scenario B2 and lightly increase under scenario A2 in 2040s. The days of high, very high and extreme fire danger classes will add 5 and 18 d under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively. It suggests adapting the climate change through improving fuel management and enhancing the fighting abilities.
文摘Recent remote monitoring surveys of smoke produced by burning and forest fires using weather radar equipment showed excellent preliminary results, but their progress is hindered due to the high operating cost of radar systems. The fire danger rating index is a good indicator of the event occurrence probability, what contributes to the monitoring areas and adds value to the alert degree information. The application of FMA fire danger index "Formula de Monte Alegre" for areas in radar coverage radius of the S-band weather radar operated by the Meteorological Research Institute, IPMet, S^fo Paulo State University, efficiently optimize the use of the radar equipment, significantly reduce operational costs, enable new research and promise results which have already reduced the average response time between ignition and detection for less than 5 minutes. It reduces more than 50% response time considered optimal for conventional detection systems. Thus, the "FMA" values act as a trigger (on-off) in the remote monitoring system of forest fires, optimizing its use at low cost, avoiding the possible stress of equipment and enabling the advance of research monitoring, detection of burnings and forest fires using weather radar.
文摘Forest fire is one of the main natural hazards because of its fierce destructiveness. Various researches on fire real time monitoring, behavior simulation and loss assessment have been carried out in many countries. As fire prevention is probably the most efficient means for protecting forests, suitable methods should be developed for estimating the fire danger. Fire danger is composed of ecological, human and climatic factors. Therefore, the systematic analysis of the factors including forest characteristics, meteorological status, topographic condition causing forest fire is made in this paper at first. The relationships between biophysical factors and fire danger are paid more attention to. Then the parameters derived from remote sensing data are used to estimate the fire danger variables, According to the analysis, not only PVI (Perpendicular Vegetation Index) can classify different vegetation but also crown density is captured with PVI. Vegetation moisture content has high correlation with the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (LE) to potential ecapotranspiration (LEp). SI (Structural Index), which is the combination of TM band 4 and 5 data, is a good indicator of forest age. Finally, a fire danger prediction model, in which relative importance of each fire factor is taken into account, is built based on GIS.
基金Supported by the Science and Technology Project of Jingning County(2022C7).
文摘Forest fires seriously threaten forestry resources and the life and property safety of people in mountainous areas of Lishui City. In this paper, a fire prevention concept with refined forecast and early warning of forest fire danger weather ratings in townships as the starting point, satellite real-time observation of fire spots, monitoring of the Internet of Things and other high-tech products as an implementation means, and strengthening forest fire prevention equipment and personnel in townships as a guarantee was established. The command system for rapid emergency response by cities, counties and townships should be improved. During the forest fire prevention period, fire sources should be strictly controlled, and the basic principles of forest fire fighting in townships should be implemented into the actual fire prevention and fire fighting work to eliminate forest fires in time at the initial stage and before the disaster.
文摘In compartment fires (houses, buildings, underground, warehouse, etc.), smokes are a major dan- ger during firemen intervention. Most of the time, they are at high temperature (>800?C) and they flow everywhere through many kinds of ducts, which leads to the propagation of the combustion by the creation other fires in places which may be far away from the initial fire. In this paper, we present a new approach of the problem, which allows to better follow the fire behavior and especially to detect the dangers that may appear and endanger firefighters. This approach consists in a mathematical analysis based on the comparison of moving averages centered in the past, calculated on the temperature recordings of the smokes. As a consequence, this method may allow to improve decision support in real time and therefore to improve the security and the efficiency of firefighters in their operations against that kind of fires.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31270695)the National Science and Technology Support Plan(2012BAC19B02)
文摘Daxing’anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China. Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate change for the region and provide a reference for applying adaptive measures for fire management. This study analyzed the changes in fire weather indices and the fire season under four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) for 2021-2050 using data from five global climate models together with observation data. The results showed that the analog data could project the average state of the climate for a given period but were not effective for simulating extreme weather conditions. Compared with the baseline period (1971-2000), the period 2021-2050 was predicted to have an increase in average temperature of 2.02-2.65 °C and in annual precipitation 25.4-40.3 mm, while the fire weather index (FWI) was predicted to increase by 6.2-11.2% and seasonal severity rating (SSR) by 5.5-17.2%. The DMC (Duff moisture code), ISI (initial spread index), BUI (build-up index), FWI and SSR were predicted to increase significantly under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Furthermore, days with high or higher fire danger rating were predicted to be prolonged by 3-6 days, with the change in the southern region being greater under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5.
基金Supported by the National Foundation of China(50974055)the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University(IRT0618)Henan Province Basic and Leading-edge Technology Research Program(082300463205)
文摘A relatively perfect coalmine fire risk-evaluating and order-arranging model that includes sixteen influential factors was established according to the statistical information of the fully mechanized coalface ground on the uncertainty measure theory. Then the single-index measure function of sixteen influential factors and the calculation method of computing the index weight ground on entropy theory were respectively established. The value assignment of sixteen influential factors was carried out by the qualitative analysis and observational data, respectively, in succession. The sequence of fire danger class of four experimental coalfaces could be obtained by the computational aids of Matlab according to the confidence level criterion. Some conclusions that the fire danger class of the No.l, No.2 and No.3 coalface belongs to high criticality can be obtained. But the fire danger class of the No.4 coalface belongs to higher criticality. The fire danger class of the No.4 coalface is more than that of the No.2 coalface. The fire danger class of the No.2 coalface is more than that of the No.1 coalface. Finally, the fire danger class of the No.1 coalface is more than that of the No.3 coalface.