Future impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in northeastern China

Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China （1961 1990） as our validation data, and the period （1991–2100） was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system （PRECIS）. Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.

Comparisons and Assessment of Forest Fire Danger Systems

The paper gives a brief description about the current main forest fire danger rating systems in the world, which in- clude forest fire danger rating system used in Canada, USA, Australia, and other countries. It shows the composition, structure and development of the main fire danger rating systems. The limitations of those systems are also discussed. Through a comparison of the three main forest fire danger rating systems the paper describes their differences on development, fuel complex descriptions, inputs and outputs, and their applications and finds that the technologies of the Canadian forest fire danger rating system can be adopted for China to develop a national forest fire danger rating system. Two steps are needed to develop our own national forest fire danger rating system. Firstly, we apply the CFFDRS directly. Then some studies should be done to calibrate the FDRS to local weather and fuel characteristics.

Forest fire danger ratings in the 2040s for northeastern China

The average temperature of northeastern China is expected to increase 2.22 and 2.55℃ under two scenarios selected from the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）, i.e., A2 and B2, during the 2040s （2041-2050）, which will have an impact on fire activities in those areas. We calculated the output of regional climate models, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） on a scale of 50 km × 50 km. Meteorological data and fire weather index were interpolated to a scale of 1 km × 1 km by using ANUSPLIN software. The results show that the model of Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies （PRECIS） had the ability to provide good temperature and precipitation estimates of the study area in the baseline period, by simulation. In the 2040s the mean FWI values of the study area will increase during most of the fire seasons under both selected scenarios, compared with the baseline period. Under scenario B2 the peak fire season will appear in advance. The changes of FWI ratio （2×CO2/l ×CO2） show that the potential burned areas will increase 20% under scenario B2 and lightly increase under scenario A2 in 2040s. The days of high, very high and extreme fire danger classes will add 5 and 18 d under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively. It suggests adapting the climate change through improving fuel management and enhancing the fighting abilities.

The Fire Danger Rating Index ＂FMA＂ as Control of Remote Sensoring System

Recent remote monitoring surveys of smoke produced by burning and forest fires using weather radar equipment showed excellent preliminary results, but their progress is hindered due to the high operating cost of radar systems. The fire danger rating index is a good indicator of the event occurrence probability, what contributes to the monitoring areas and adds value to the alert degree information. The application of FMA fire danger index ＂Formula de Monte Alegre＂ for areas in radar coverage radius of the S-band weather radar operated by the Meteorological Research Institute, IPMet, S^fo Paulo State University, efficiently optimize the use of the radar equipment, significantly reduce operational costs, enable new research and promise results which have already reduced the average response time between ignition and detection for less than 5 minutes. It reduces more than 50% response time considered optimal for conventional detection systems. Thus, the ＂FMA＂ values act as a trigger （on-off） in the remote monitoring system of forest fires, optimizing its use at low cost, avoiding the possible stress of equipment and enabling the advance of research monitoring, detection of burnings and forest fires using weather radar.

STUDY ON FOREST FIRE DANGER MODEL WITH REMOTE SENSING BASED ON GIS

Forest fire is one of the main natural hazards because of its fierce destructiveness. Various researches on fire real time monitoring, behavior simulation and loss assessment have been carried out in many countries. As fire prevention is probably the most efficient means for protecting forests, suitable methods should be developed for estimating the fire danger. Fire danger is composed of ecological, human and climatic factors. Therefore, the systematic analysis of the factors including forest characteristics, meteorological status, topographic condition causing forest fire is made in this paper at first. The relationships between biophysical factors and fire danger are paid more attention to. Then the parameters derived from remote sensing data are used to estimate the fire danger variables, According to the analysis, not only PVI (Perpendicular Vegetation Index) can classify different vegetation but also crown density is captured with PVI. Vegetation moisture content has high correlation with the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (LE) to potential ecapotranspiration (LEp). SI (Structural Index), which is the combination of TM band 4 and 5 data, is a good indicator of forest age. Finally, a fire danger prediction model, in which relative importance of each fire factor is taken into account, is built based on GIS.

Preliminary Study on Forest Fire Prevention and Extinguishing in Townships in the Southern Mountainous Areas of Zhejiang Province:A Case Study of Lishui

Forest fires seriously threaten forestry resources and the life and property safety of people in mountainous areas of Lishui City. In this paper, a fire prevention concept with refined forecast and early warning of forest fire danger weather ratings in townships as the starting point, satellite real-time observation of fire spots, monitoring of the Internet of Things and other high-tech products as an implementation means, and strengthening forest fire prevention equipment and personnel in townships as a guarantee was established. The command system for rapid emergency response by cities, counties and townships should be improved. During the forest fire prevention period, fire sources should be strictly controlled, and the basic principles of forest fire fighting in townships should be implemented into the actual fire prevention and fire fighting work to eliminate forest fires in time at the initial stage and before the disaster.

Danger Detection during Fight against Compartment-Fire Using Moving Averages in Temperature Recordings

In compartment fires (houses, buildings, underground, warehouse, etc.), smokes are a major dan- ger during firemen intervention. Most of the time, they are at high temperature (>800?C) and they flow everywhere through many kinds of ducts, which leads to the propagation of the combustion by the creation other fires in places which may be far away from the initial fire. In this paper, we present a new approach of the problem, which allows to better follow the fire behavior and especially to detect the dangers that may appear and endanger firefighters. This approach consists in a mathematical analysis based on the comparison of moving averages centered in the past, calculated on the temperature recordings of the smokes. As a consequence, this method may allow to improve decision support in real time and therefore to improve the security and the efficiency of firefighters in their operations against that kind of fires.

The impact of climate change on fire risk in Daxing'anling,China

Daxing’anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China. Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate change for the region and provide a reference for applying adaptive measures for fire management. This study analyzed the changes in fire weather indices and the fire season under four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) for 2021-2050 using data from five global climate models together with observation data. The results showed that the analog data could project the average state of the climate for a given period but were not effective for simulating extreme weather conditions. Compared with the baseline period (1971-2000), the period 2021-2050 was predicted to have an increase in average temperature of 2.02-2.65 °C and in annual precipitation 25.4-40.3 mm, while the fire weather index (FWI) was predicted to increase by 6.2-11.2% and seasonal severity rating (SSR) by 5.5-17.2%. The DMC (Duff moisture code), ISI (initial spread index), BUI (build-up index), FWI and SSR were predicted to increase significantly under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Furthermore, days with high or higher fire danger rating were predicted to be prolonged by 3-6 days, with the change in the southern region being greater under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5.

Fire risk evaluation research on fully mechanized coalface based on the uncertainty measure theory

A relatively perfect coalmine fire risk-evaluating and order-arranging model that includes sixteen influential factors was established according to the statistical information of the fully mechanized coalface ground on the uncertainty measure theory. Then the single-index measure function of sixteen influential factors and the calculation method of computing the index weight ground on entropy theory were respectively established. The value assignment of sixteen influential factors was carried out by the qualitative analysis and observational data, respectively, in succession. The sequence of fire danger class of four experimental coalfaces could be obtained by the computational aids of Matlab according to the confidence level criterion. Some conclusions that the fire danger class of the No.l, No.2 and No.3 coalface belongs to high criticality can be obtained. But the fire danger class of the No.4 coalface belongs to higher criticality. The fire danger class of the No.4 coalface is more than that of the No.2 coalface. The fire danger class of the No.2 coalface is more than that of the No.1 coalface. Finally, the fire danger class of the No.1 coalface is more than that of the No.3 coalface.

危化品火灾主要特点及灭火救援措施

本文对危化品火灾的主要特点及灭火救援措施进行了深入研究。首先,文章分析了危化品火灾的四个主要特点,包括燃烧剧烈、蔓延迅速、毒性强和爆炸风险高。然后,阐述了危化品火灾中产生危害物的机理,包括燃烧产物、分解产物和化学反应产物。接着,文章详细介绍了危化品火灾的灭火救援措施,包括火灾扑救、人员疏散与救援以及火场监测与评估。最后,通过一个具体的硝酸火灾案例分析,展示了灭火救援措施在实际应用中的效果。

电动自行车消防安全隐患分析及火灾防控策略

近年来电动自行车火灾事故频发,造成大量人员伤亡和财产损失,社会影响较大。对电动自行车消防安全隐患进行全面分析,结合工作实际,提出从电动自行车全链条管控、法规标准建设、设施建设和管理、消防宣传教育等方面着手,全力做好电动自行车火灾防控工作。

消防领域危险作业罪司法适用的合规机制及构建路径

《中华人民共和国刑法》增设了危险作业罪,有助于利用刑罚的威慑力提升消防行政执法的力度。基于消防工作的高度专业性和社会聚焦度,结合当前危险作业罪适用的现状和问题,研究将合规机制引入危险作业罪司法适用的必要性,以此畅通行刑双向衔接的渠道,将“刑罚势能”转化为“整改动能”,最大限度实现消防安全治理效果,并从合规义务的规范体系、合规评估的程序设计以及合规管理的组织机构3个方面阐述构建合规机制的路径。

川南经济区森林火险气象预报技术研究

根据川南经济区(泸州市、内江市、宜宾市、自贡市)20个国家气象站1990~2022年逐日气象数据、1990~2022年森林火灾资料,通过计算林火分类条件概率,完善20个国家站12个气象要素单因子贡献度数学模型的参数调整,最终构建出适用于川南经济区的森林火险气象等级预报模型。经验证,模型计算得到的火灾发生时森林火险气象等级均在3级以上,表明森林火灾风险高,与川南经济区林火的出现较为吻合,适用于川南经济区森林火险气象等级实际预报中。

建筑消防工程隐患成因及安全整改方案设计

本文全面分析了建筑消防工程建设中的隐患成因,包括工程设计、材料选择、施工质量控制及日常维护等方面,并提出了针对性的安全整改方案。这些方案包括优化工程设计管理、完善材料验收制度、加强质量控制及日常管理、引进新型消防产品以及提升从业人员的安全管理能力等。通过对这些方案的实施,旨在提高建筑消防工程的安全性,减少火灾隐患,保障人们的生命财产安全。

包装危险货物装卸码头消防及安全技术要求

目前的码头相关规范重点聚焦液体散装危险货物码头,缺少适用包装危险货物装卸码头的技术标准。为明晰包装危险货物码头消防及安全技术要点,采用规范梳理法、逻辑推理法、经验总结法,对包装危险货物装卸码头涉及的船型、火灾危险性定性、安全距离、平面布置、工艺设备配置、消防设计和安全设施设计要点进行分析,提出包装危险货物装卸码头设计时消防及安全技术要点。

超高层给排水消防设计与计算延展分析

对超高层建筑给排水、消防设计与计算中发现的、存在的重难点问题及容易忽视的设计要点问题进行了深入探究,以深圳市某超高层建筑设计实例为依据,并对其进行了部分延展及归纳总结。提供了给水系统中对不同位置功能的生活水箱容积、不同位置功能的管段和加压设备流量取值计算的方法;对排水系统中尤其是雨水系统设计过程中遇到的设置于室内的雨水收集池带来的内涝隐患进行了详细的分析且提供了相应的解决办法,并列出了雨水计算中容易出现的计算盲点及如何提高建筑品质的排水管防渗漏、防爆管的处理措施;最后针对消防水系统的安全,对自动灭火系统的水量计算、消防用电负荷的设计建议提出了相应的处理方式,同时提出了超过高层消防设计中容易忽视的设计问题并介绍了物联网消防系统的功能和优势,对类似超高层建筑设计及相关给排水系统计算提供了重要参考价值。

浅述氧化性固体的储存火灾危险性类别

为了给有关人员对氧化性固体火灾危险性类别的准确判断提供必要的依据,分析了氧化性固体包装类别与其储存火灾危险性类别的关系。依据联合国有关危险货物运输的文件资料、GB 12268—2012《危险货物品名表》《危险化学品分类信息表》和欧洲化学品管理局官方网站数据库,对GB 50160—2008(2018年版)《石油化工企业设计防火标准》解释条文表3中所列举的氧化性固体包装类别进行比较,并对氧化性固体的火灾危险性类别判定的合理性进行辨析,建议对火灾危险性类别判定不合理之处进行重新评估并修改相关规范。

锦丘煤矿工作面自然火灾治理技术

为解决锦丘煤矿井下煤层快速氧化问题,联合使用排除法+钻孔探测迅速锁定危险区域,针对各氧化原因提出相应的治理措施并现场应用,最后建立井下火灾检测系统和灭火系统,并对重点区域提出火灾防治方案。结果表明:针对12306工作面采空区因积水浸媒体导致煤岩快速氧化,采用喷洒阻化剂+注浆的治理方案在第13天降至最低值,而后CO浓度保持在0.0015%~0.0043%区间内;针对12307工作面采空区留设支撑煤柱压裂氧化放热的情况,采用围煤柱浇筑厚30 cm的混凝土墙,并注浆+氮气堕化空区的治理方案,发现采空区CO浓度震荡式下降后对封闭墙加固,最终在第12天降至最低值,CO浓度保持在0.0017%~0.0041%的区间内。

地下商场火灾危险性及消防监督管理研究

对地下商场火灾的危险性及消防监督管理措施进行研究,从人员疏散、有害气体、火灾扑救等方面分析商场火灾的危险性,从安全疏散、排烟审查、建筑耐火等探讨实现消防监督管理,保障消防监督措施得到有效运用的途径和方法。

基于LSTM-AE-OCSVM的带式输送机火灾监测隐患识别技术

针对传统带式输送机火灾隐患识别方法的漏报率和误报率高的问题,通过挖掘带式输送机火灾监测中多元时间序列(MTS)数据,提出了一种长短时记忆-自编码的一类支持向量机神经网络(LSTM-AE-OCSVM)火灾隐患识别算法。首先,改进自动编码器(AE)将隐藏层中的神经元替换为LSTM神经元;然后,提取带式输送机火灾无异常监测数据的时序特征并重构输入数据;其次,改进LSTM-AE将重构值与实际值的差值序列经OCSVM训练得到包含无隐患异常样本的超平面;最后,通过计算测试集与超平面距离函数值来划分隐患异常。仿真结果表明,实验中所提出的改进方法与传统的LSTM和OCSVM等隐患异常检测方法相比准确率更高,达到了90.1%。该方法在识别矿井带式输送机火灾隐患上具有重要的应用价值。