Against the background of continued effects of financial crisis,fiscal risks management has become an important but tough issue for most countries in the world.Being a transitional country,China’s fiscal risks have t...Against the background of continued effects of financial crisis,fiscal risks management has become an important but tough issue for most countries in the world.Being a transitional country,China’s fiscal risks have their own characteristics.The evolution of fiscal risks is accompanied with China’s transitional reform and changes of governments’responsibility.The paper aims to track the changing pattern of fiscal risks from a historical respective and summarizes the evolution of fiscal risks management.Then it further analyzes the challenges of managing fiscal risks,and concludes it with recommendations.展开更多
Public finance is the foundation and pillar of state governance,and the core of state governance is public risk management.On one hand,public finance provides public services using public revenue and manages public ri...Public finance is the foundation and pillar of state governance,and the core of state governance is public risk management.On one hand,public finance provides public services using public revenue and manages public risk directly.On the other hand,public fiscal risk can serve as a policy instrument for public risk management.Public risk,public services,public revenue,and fiscal risk mutually reinforce and set each other off.Therefore,striking a balance between fiscal risk and public risk is of great importance.To minimize public risk under the constraint of fiscal risk is the fundamental basis of the assessment of public services.Even though the constraint of fiscal risk may vary with the requirement of minimizing public risk,there is a limit.Thus,improving the efficiency of the provision of public services,or in other words,raising the effectiveness of public risk management,may relieve the pressure of fiscal risk and obtain a more appropriate balance between public risk and fiscal risk.展开更多
Strong credit expansion in China after the recent global financial crisis has brought local government financial vehicles （LGFV） into the spotlight. Rapid growth of LGFV has triggered concern about local government ...Strong credit expansion in China after the recent global financial crisis has brought local government financial vehicles （LGFV） into the spotlight. Rapid growth of LGFV has triggered concern about local government indebtedness, banks＇ asset quality and, more broadly, China＇s medium-term financial stability and sovereign risk. This paper constructs a unique frm-level dataset to evaluate the country ＂s local government debt. We find an uneven distribution of LGFV, which are concentrated in the coastal areas, and a deterioration of their debt repaying ability from 2010 to 2012. We use principal component analysis （PCA ） along with multivariate discriminate analysis （MDA） to identify the credit risk of LGFV based on conventional financial variables as well as local governments ＇fiscal status. We also estimate the safe boundaries of debt bearing at the provincial government level. The estimations reveal more severe local government debt risks in the middle-western provinces and higher risks associated with LGFV at the municipal and county levels. Although it is very unlikely that there will be a national debt crisis in China, the high risk of LGFV should be noted and effectively controlled by improving the fiscal transparency of local governments and reforming the fiscal system.展开更多
文摘Against the background of continued effects of financial crisis,fiscal risks management has become an important but tough issue for most countries in the world.Being a transitional country,China’s fiscal risks have their own characteristics.The evolution of fiscal risks is accompanied with China’s transitional reform and changes of governments’responsibility.The paper aims to track the changing pattern of fiscal risks from a historical respective and summarizes the evolution of fiscal risks management.Then it further analyzes the challenges of managing fiscal risks,and concludes it with recommendations.
文摘Public finance is the foundation and pillar of state governance,and the core of state governance is public risk management.On one hand,public finance provides public services using public revenue and manages public risk directly.On the other hand,public fiscal risk can serve as a policy instrument for public risk management.Public risk,public services,public revenue,and fiscal risk mutually reinforce and set each other off.Therefore,striking a balance between fiscal risk and public risk is of great importance.To minimize public risk under the constraint of fiscal risk is the fundamental basis of the assessment of public services.Even though the constraint of fiscal risk may vary with the requirement of minimizing public risk,there is a limit.Thus,improving the efficiency of the provision of public services,or in other words,raising the effectiveness of public risk management,may relieve the pressure of fiscal risk and obtain a more appropriate balance between public risk and fiscal risk.
文摘Strong credit expansion in China after the recent global financial crisis has brought local government financial vehicles （LGFV） into the spotlight. Rapid growth of LGFV has triggered concern about local government indebtedness, banks＇ asset quality and, more broadly, China＇s medium-term financial stability and sovereign risk. This paper constructs a unique frm-level dataset to evaluate the country ＂s local government debt. We find an uneven distribution of LGFV, which are concentrated in the coastal areas, and a deterioration of their debt repaying ability from 2010 to 2012. We use principal component analysis （PCA ） along with multivariate discriminate analysis （MDA） to identify the credit risk of LGFV based on conventional financial variables as well as local governments ＇fiscal status. We also estimate the safe boundaries of debt bearing at the provincial government level. The estimations reveal more severe local government debt risks in the middle-western provinces and higher risks associated with LGFV at the municipal and county levels. Although it is very unlikely that there will be a national debt crisis in China, the high risk of LGFV should be noted and effectively controlled by improving the fiscal transparency of local governments and reforming the fiscal system.
