Production Chain Length and PPI-CPI Divergence:Analysis Based on the Global Input-output Price Model

Productivity and international energy price shocks are reflected in PPI and CPI via industrial chains.China’s in-depth participation into the global value chains has increasingly lengthened its industrial production chains.The question is how the changing length of production chains will affect CPI and PPI,as well as CPI-PPI correlation?By constructing a global input-output price model,this paper offers a theoretical discussion on the impact of production chain length on the CPI-PPI divergence.Our findings suggest that the price shock of international bulk commodities has a greater impact on China’s PPI than that on CPI.The effects on both China’s PPI and CPI estimated by using the single-country input-output model are higher than the results estimated with the global input-output model.However,the difference between CPI and PPI variations estimated with the global input-output model is greater than the result estimated with the single-country input-output model,which supports the view that the lengthening of production chains,especially international production chains,leads to a divergence between CPI and PPI.Empirical results based on cross-national panel data also suggest that the lengthening of production chains has reduced the CPI-PPI correlation for countries,i.e.the lengthening of production chains has increased the PPI-CPI divergence.That is to say,policymakers should target not just CPI in maintaining price stability,but instead focus on the stability of both PPI and CPI.Efforts can be made to proactively adjust the price index system,and formulate the industrial chain price index.

Brent vs.West Texas Intermediate in the US petro derivatives price formation

In this paper,we apply the spatial panel model to explore the relationship between the dynamic of two types of crude oil prices(WTI and Brent crude oil)and their refined products over time.Considering the turbulent months of 2011,when Cushing Oklahoma had reached capacity and the crude oil export ban removal in 2015 as breakpoints,we apply this method both in the full sample and the three resultant regimes.First,results suggest our results show that both WTI and Brent display very similar behaviour with the refined products.Second,when attending to each regime,results derived from the first and third regimes are quite similar to the full sample results.Therefore,during the second regime,Brent crude oil became the benchmark in the petrol market,and it influenced the distillate products.Furthermore,our model can let us determine the price-setters and price-followers in the price formation mechanism through refined products.These results possess important considerations to policymakers and the market participants and the price formation.

The Spillover Effect between Futures and Spot Price of Agricultural Products:A Case Study of Soybean Products of China

Taking soybean products as an example and using the daily price data of 2007-2015,this paper established the error correction model and BEKK-GARCH model,and made an empirical study on the spillover effect of futures and spot price of agricultural products of China. According to this study,there were mean spillover effect and two-way volatility spillover effect in futures and spot price of soybean,soybean oil,and soybean meal; soybean futures prices significantly guided the spot price; in the price linkage between the types,the price relationship between the soybean meal and soybean was closer than between the soybean oil and soybean.

Empirical Study on the Impact of Rural Labor Force Flow on the Price of Agricultural Products——A Method Based on VEC Model

Based on the research introduction of domestic and foreign scholars,dynamic equilibrium between the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural product is analyzed by VEC model,according to the data of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products in the years 1990-2007.Chows breakpoint test is used to measure the stage characteristics of the impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product.Result shows that there is a long-term and stationary relationship between the flow quantity of rural labor force and the price of agricultural product.Rural labor force flow,as an exogenous force,affects the agricultural production,and further influences the price fluctuation of agricultural products.Impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product is from weak to strong,then grows gradually weaker,and reaches its peak value at the year 1998.With the development of rural society and economy and the market process,rural labor force flow endogenously affects the price of agricultural product,which has periodic characteristics.In order to achieve a dual stabilization of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products,the following countermeasures are put forward:vigorously developing vocational education,increasing the support for agricultural production,and making active employment measures.

International Comparison,Regional Characteristics and Regulatory Management of Structural Rise in the Prices of Chinese Industrial and Agricultural Products

China's price fluctuations increasingly exhibit significant structural characteristics,and since 2003,there have been several rounds of significant structural price rise.The degree of structural rise in the prices of industrial and agricultural products in China is not only higher than in the general developed countries and developing countries,but also more prominent than in other transition economies.And the structural rise in the prices of Chinese industrial and agricultural products exhibits significant economic zone differences:the structural fluctuations are the greatest in the central and western regions,significantly higher than in the eastern regions as well as the national average.From the perspective of causes of structural rise in the prices of Chinese industrial and agricultural products,the government must aim to coordinate the industrial and agricultural investments and bridge the gap in the industrial and agricultural technologies and supply capacity.

The Price Model of Aquatic Products Based on Predictive Control Theory

This paper discusses a disequilibrium cobweb model of price of aquatic products, and applies predictive control theory, so that the system operates stably, and the deviation between supply and demand of aquatic products smoothly tracks the pre-given target. It defines the supply and demand change model, and researches the impact of parameter selection in this model on dynamic state and robustness of the system. I conduct simulation by Matlab software, to get the response curve of this model. The results show that in the early period of commodities coming into the market, affected by lack of market information and many other factors, the price fluctuates greatly in a short time. The market will gradually achieve balance between supply and demand over time, and the price fluctuations in the neighbouring two periods are broadly consistent. The increase in model parameter can decrease overshoot, to promote the stability of system, but the slower the dynamic response, the longer the deviation between supply and demand to accurately track a given target. Therefore, by selecting different parameters, the decision-makers can establish different models of supply and demand changes to meet the actual needs, and ensure stable development of market. Simulation results verify the excellent performance of this algorithm.

The influence of price on rice production in Sierra Leone

Rice is the main staple food of the vast majority of Sierra Leoneans, eaten on a daily basis by almost every household in the country. Rice is the most important food crop widely grown by farmers across the country. Although much attention is now focused on rice production through the small holder commercialization programme (SHCP), less attention has been given to investigating the constraints faced by rice producers in the country. Also, as food insecurity continues to be a major development problem across the country, thereby undermining people’s health, productivity, and often their very survival;this study contributes to efforts to overcome the development challenges posed by food insecurity necessarily begin with accurate assessment of influential factors that constrained the production of the staple food, rice. The main objective of this study is therefore to analysis the factors that influence rice production in the country, and specifically examine the relationship between rice production and the price of rice as sold in the domestic market. The study used a log linear model with the quantity of rice produced as the dependent variable and the price of domestic rice, quantity of rice imported and price of imported rice as explanatory. Findings indicated that, domestic rice is more expensive than imported rice per ton, and this underscores the argument that, rice importation is undermining domestic rice production as a viable income generating activity. Also, almost all the people in the capital city which hosts about 70% of the total population of country prefer eating imported rice, since it is free from stones and other impurities. However, In order to control price and still increase rice production, the government should be able to purchase the rice from the farmers and then sell this rice to private retailers.

Price Discrimination of Film Products and Building of Hierarchical Market under the Background of “Internet Plus”

Price Discrimination of film products is theoretically feasible and logically inevitable, and it has been used for a long time in film industry as well. However, there are practical paradoxes in the new environment due to market factors like popularization of Internet environment and Online to Offline(O2O) retailers between hierarchical markets. Compared with high-level markets, low-level markets are lack of conditions for differentiated lower price like cinema infrastructure, and environment for film consumption market, so that the consumption potential for market has not been motivated yet. Therefore, it is quite important to pay close attention to how to expand the market by clearer gradient pricing structures and Internet platform.

Regulating and Controlling the Rising Prices of Geographical Indication Products in Inflation——taking Geographical Indication Products from Chongqing as an Example

Since July 2010,the prices of geographical indication products have risen with the occurrence of inflation.In contrast with other products,geographical indication products are distinct.The increasing prices of geographical indication goods have their own necessities.From the perspective of the products,they are equipped with appreciation potential due to the cultural pe culiarities.From the historical standpoint,their prices have not been high as well as other agricultural products.Realistically,the increase in their prices results from the costs of labors and raw materials.Therefore,the prices of geographical indication products rise to catch up.Not only are their prices at a reasonable level,but also they are beneficial to increase peasants'income.In con clusion,it is necessary that the strategies which are different from those of other products be adopted to regulate and control the prices of geographical indication products.

Analysis of Intermediate Product Price and Social Welfare in the Vertical Merger of Enterprises

According to the different products that two upper enterprises produce, this paper analyzes the transfer pricing of intermediate product and the effect of social welfare of vertical merger under imperfect competition market. The conclusions are: the transfer pricing of intermediate product is equal to marginal cost; the perfect outputs that upper enterprises sell to the market before and after the vertical merger of enterprises are the same; the product price in the integrated enterprises may be higher, lower or equal to the price in non-integrated enterprises.

Flexible Load Participation in Peaking Shaving and Valley Filling Based on Dynamic Price Incentives

Considering the widening of the peak-valley difference in the power grid and the difficulty of the existing fixed time-of-use electricity price mechanism in meeting the energy demand of heterogeneous users at various moments or motivating users,the design of a reasonable dynamic pricing mechanism to actively engage users in demand response becomes imperative for power grid companies.For this purpose,a power grid-flexible load bilevel model is constructed based on dynamic pricing,where the leader is the dispatching center and the lower-level flexible load acts as the follower.Initially,an upper-level day-ahead dispatching model for the power grid is established,considering the lowest power grid dispatching cost as the objective function and incorporating the power grid-side constraints.Then,the lower level comprehensively considers the load characteristics of industrial load,energy storage,and data centers,and then establishes a lower-level flexible load operation model with the lowest user power-consuming cost as the objective function.Finally,the proposed method is validated using the IEEE-118 system,and the findings indicate that the dynamic pricing mechanism for peaking shaving and valley filling can effectively guide users to respond actively,thereby reducing the peak-valley difference and decreasing users’purchasing costs.

Distributions of chlorophyll a and carbon fixed strength of phyto-plankton in autumn of the southern Huanghai Sea waters

Chlorophyll a （Chl a） concentration and primary productivity （PP）, namely, carbon fixed strength of phytoplankton along four transects in the southern Huanghai Sea （SHS） were studied for their distribution features and controlling mechanisms based on the investigations from 17 October to 3 November 2005. The Chl a concentration in the study waters dynamically changed spatially. Surface Chl a concentrations ranged from 0.11 to 2.38 mg/m^3 with higher and lower values observed in the nutrient-laden inshore waters and central part of the SHS occupied by oligotrophic current, respectively. The vertical distribution of Chl a concentration showed a predominant pattern of subsurface concentration maximum profile. It followed the previous result of the deep dissolved oxygen concentration maximum profile, which was significantly correlated with phytoplankton and regional water mass. The primary productivity of carbon in autumn of the SHS, ranging from 95 to 1 634 rag/（ m^2· d） mainly varied with nutrient condition, especially phosphate concentration in seawater and hydrological condition. Furthermore, associating the present study results together with previous studies, the annual value of carbon fixed production of phytoplankton in the entire marginal seas of East China （including the Bohai Sea, the Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea） was estimated to be 222 Mt, which accounted for 2% of that in the global margins. Besides, it was as 16.2 times as the annual value of apparent carbon sink strength （ 13.96 Mt） in the marginal seas of East China. This multiple was different in different sea areas （ 3.0 in the Bohai Sea, 6. 7 in the Huanghai Sea and 81.6 in the East China Sea）.

Using Quantile Regression Approach to Analyze Price Movements of Agricultural Products in China

This paper studies how the price movements of pork,chicken and egg respond to those of related cost factors in short terms in Chinese market.We employ a linear quantile approach not only to explore potential data heteroscedasticity but also to generate confidence bands for the purpose of price stability study.We then evaluate our models by comparing the prediction intervals generated from the quantile regression models with in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.Using monthly data from January 2000 to October 2010,we observed these findings：（i） the price changes of cost factors asymmetrically and unequally influence those of the livestock across different quantiles;（ii） the performance of our models is robust and consistent for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts;（iii） the confidence intervals generated from 0.05th and 0.95th quantile regression models are good methods to forecast livestock price fluctuation.

Factors Influencing Price of Agricultural Products and Stability Countermeasures

Factors leading to rise of prices of agricultural products mainly include tension of supply-demand relationship,promotion of production cost and circulation cost,and speculation of Refugee Capital(Hot Money).Factors leading to low price and difficult sales of agricultural products mainly include asymmetry of supply-demand information,lack of risk management tools for prices of agricultural products and decentralized and small-scaled operation of farmers.On the basis of these factors,this paper presents following countermeasures and suggestions for stabilizing prices of agricultural products:firstly,building long-effect mechanism for production and sales of agricultural products;secondly,expand the production and increase supply of agricultural products;thirdly,control the rising range of production cost for agricultural products;fourthly,enhance organization level of farmers;fifthly,promote innovation and development of risk management tools for prices of agricultural products.

Application of GARCH Model in Research on Price of Agricultural Products

Taking the price of grain in Guizhou Province as an example, by establishing GARCH model, I calculate VAR of logarithm return of grain price index, in order to conduct research on the variation law of price of the agricultural products. The results show that VAR of grain in Guizhou has variation. After the year 2010, VAR value is gradually increasing, and the price variation risk of grain market tends to increase progressively. Based on the characteristics of grain price variation, a series of corresponding proposals are put forward to stabilize the grain price as follows: strengthen the agricultural infrastructure construction, and promote the agricultural overall production capacity; reinforce the market supervision on the circulation field of agricultural products, and maintain market order; improve regulation system of agricultural products, and stabilize the price of agricultural products; strengthen mobility regulation, and prevent a flood of speculative cash.

Rice Growers' Behavior of Productive Capital Input and the Influencing Factors——A Case Study of the Jiamusi Area in Heilongjiang Province

This article conducts empirical analysis of rice growers' behavior of productive capital input and the influencing factors,using the input-output survey data concerning rice growing by 305 peasant households in 2009 in Huanan County and Huachuan County,Jiamusi City,Heilongjiang Province.I use Logit model to carry out econometric test of factors influencing the possibility of fixed productive investment.The test results show that family size,the proportion of non-agricultural employment,the average educational level of households,farmland area,household farming income,credit level,peasant households' expectation of the minimum purchase price of rice,have significant effect on whether to conduct fixed productive investment,whether there are disasters has no significant effect on the scale of peasant households' productive investment.Then I use Tobit model to carry out econometric test of factors influencing the scale of productive capital input.The results show that family size,the proportion of non-agricultural employment,the average educational level of households,farmland area,household farming income,credit level and family housing value,peasant households' expectation of the minimum purchase price of rice,whether there are disasters,have significant effect on the scale of peasant households' productive investment.On the basis of model test results,in order to promote the rice growers to increase fixed productive input and increase productive capital input,rational recommendations are put forward as follows:raising the minimum purchase price of rice,scaling up rice growing,making every effort to promote the educational level of rice growers,ensuring that the rice growers obtain productive capital input loans timely.

Changes in Net Barter Terms of Trade for Sino-Australian Agricultural Products after China's Accession to the WTO

Using " chain-based and constant-based" two-step method,this paper measured Paasche net barter terms of trade index for SinoAustralian agricultural products from 2001 to 2013,and further calculated contribution of each category of agricultural products to changes in overall net barter terms of trade. The results showed that since 2001,the overall net barter terms of trade for Sino-Australian agricultural products fluctuated between deterioration and improvement. In 2013,the net barter terms of trade index was 1. 02,and its improvement is not significant. From 2001 to 2013,the net barter terms of trade for Sino-Australian agricultural products improved about 16. 44%,which dominated by the category 0 agricultural products whose influence degree is 6 times and 28 times the degree of category 4 and category 1. In years when the net barter terms of trade for Sino-Australian agricultural products deteriorated,category 2 agricultural products were the root cause for the deterioration.

Feasibility Analysis of Agricultural Product Price Index Insurance Based on Pilot Cases

Agricultural product price index insurance is a kind of index insurance. It avoids defects of traditional agricultural insurance,such as moral hazards,adverse selection,and high management cost. On the basis of studying agricultural product price index insurance of all areas of China,this paper analyzed characteristics of agricultural product price index insurance from object selection,product object,premium design,and policy support,and discussed feasibility of extending agricultural product price index insurance in an all-round way.

Analysis of Pig Price Fluctuation in Recent Decade Based on the Changes in Breeding Scale

In recent decade, the fluctuation of pig price has become more and more acute with obvious periodicity. Currently, the pig breeding mode dominated by individual households leads to acute fluctuation of pig price to some extent. The scale expansion of recent decade intensified the fluc- tuation of pig price in the short term but will stabilize the price in the long term. Therefore. it is necessary to expand breeding scale for maintaining long-term price stability and the optimal scale should be chosen according to the circumstances to ensure the social benefit maximization.

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Urbanization Development on Food Production

In order to clarify the impact of urbanization development on food production,based on panel data from 31 provinces(municipalities,autonomous regions)in China from 2005 to 2015,using a fixed effect model,the paper found that the urbanization rate has a negative impact on per capita food production,and finally made the related policy recommendations.The above research is of significance for promoting the development of urbanization and ensuring food security.