Food security amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Asia:Evidence from rural Tajikistan

Food security has been long understudied in the context of Central Asia.We present an analysis examining household-level food demand for Tajikistan and assessing the magnitude of its food security changes during the COVID-19 pandemic.Based on an extensive household survey data set from Tajikistan,we estimate the expenditure,income,and price elasticities for nine food categories using the QUAIDS model.Then,we develop a microsimulation model using the estimated elasticities to assess the dual impact of declining remittance income and rising food prices stemming from the pandemic shock.There are significant differences in demand elasticities across food groups,with high elasticities observed for nutritious foods,such as meat,fruit,eggs,and milk,in rural households.Moreover,our findings show that changes in remittance income and food prices significantly negatively affected food security for rural households during the COVID-19 pandemic.These findings have important implications for policymakers concerned about rural livelihoods and food security in remittance-receiving economies during the post-pandemic period.

China’s Food Security and International Trade

Since ancient times, the Chinese government has always attached a great deal of importance to food security . However, the problems have been different at different times, with a variety of different solutions. For a considerably long period of time, production efficiency was low due to the planned economy. Food supply was in a constant state of shortage due to limited investment,

The impacts of biofuels on food security and supply in China

Biofuels are the current promising alternative to fossil fuels. However, the fluctuating food prices caused by oil price led to critics to biofuels. The paper surveyed biofuels production and grain production and consumption demand, and come to the conclusion that there was a little impact of corn ethanol on international food price, and there was no impact on China’s food prices. China has launched non-food biofuels development strategy to use marginal lands for growing hard crops, such as sweet sorghum, tuber crops, and switchgrass etc. to produce biofuels without any impact on food security in the future.

Climate Change and Food Price: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies, 1990-2021

Climate extreme events have threatened food security and the second Sustainable development goals (SDGs) “zero hunger” both directly via agricultural food loss and indirectly through rising food prices. We systematically searched and used a combination of results from various models, which play a crucial role in predicting the potential impact of climate change on agricultural production and food price. Therefore, we searched online databases including EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and grey literature. Then observational studies were included from January 1990 to August 2021, which reported food price proportion under climate disturbances. Results showed that 22 out of 26 studies from 615 articles, identified in the meta-analysis predicted the food price ratio would be fluctuated up to 28% before 2020, while the ratio will be marked up at 31% from 2020 to 2049 and then will scale down during 2050-2100. The compiled ratio was estimated at 26% in the long period between 2000 until 2100 under climatic weather events. Drought was a significant weather disturbance with a 32% increase in food prices. Consequently, the Food price increase will significantly affect food accessibility in lower-income countries, primarily until 2050. Policymakers should prioritize and act through redesigning food security policies according to climatic extremes in their settings.

Study on the Reform of Agricultural Supply Side Based on Food Security

In December 2015,the Central Rural Work Conference put forward the structural reform of agricultural supply side,to ensure the national food security. At present,China's grain production is increasing,the supply and demand structure of grain market is not balanced,and the ineffective supply due to the lack of market supply and demand has caused the problem of structural surplus and structural shortage.And price and quality difference of domestic and international grain is obvious,and the agricultural products in China are overstock,so the reform of agricultural supply side based on food security must be implemented. To adjust structure,reduce stock,reduce cost,increase quality,promote the primary,secondary and tertiary industries convergence will become the focus of China's agricultural supply side structural reform,and we can develop the ecological agriculture,improve the competitiveness of the grain market in price and quality,to ensure food security for the nation.

Food Security in Nepal:An Overview from Policy Perspective

More than 20 countries including Nepal have the right to food enshrined in their constitutions.The article 36 of the constitution of Nepal-2015 broadly enlivens the essence of all the past,present and future policies of Nepal related to food security,food sovereignty,and food rights.The article and the essence of the constitution are in perfect synergy with the United Nations sustainable development goals-2015.Nepal’s policies on food,when implemented,are sufficient to guide the agricultural development to end hunger,achieve food security,improve nutrition,and promote sustainability.The challenge has been to learn a lesson from the past and focus on the implementation of the numerous guiding policies to achieve the goals of the constitution.

Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on the International Food Supply Chain and Countermeasures of Shandong Province

The COVID-19 epidemic has exerted an impact on the global food supply chain,and also has contributed to the tendency of food hoarding and short supply;strong food demand has led to a rapid rise in international food prices,which has put enormous pressure on China's food import,and domestic food price showed a rise trend accordingly.In order to ensure sufficient and stable supply of China's food market,it is necessary to adhere to the food security strategy of"food self-sufficiency"for a long term.In the spring agricultural production,Shandong Province has taken effective measures to stabilize food production and achieved good results.It has not been greatly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic;however,under the continuous spread of foreign epidemics,we must adhere to the dual hard core operation of epidemic prevention and production,and explore the establishment of technical specifications for agricultural production under normal conditions for epidemic prevention and control to ensure the food security.

Changes of China's Position in the World Food Trade Network

"Ensuring stability in foreign trade"and"ensuring food security"are essential parts of China's"six priorities"and"stability in six areas".Based on the data of bilateral food trade between countries during 1996-2018,using descriptive statistical analysis and social network analysis methods,this paper analyzed the changes of China's trade position in the world food trade network.It reached the following results.(i)China's position in the trade network has undergone a phased process of"remarkable improvement-continuous fluctuation-significant decline-steady growth".(ii)Export participation is better than import participation,the gap between trade export strength and import strength is widening,and the effective scale and constraint index gradually improve.(iii)The change of China's position in the food trade network is affected by geographical,economic,institutional and cultural factors.In view of these findings,it is recommended to improve node centrality,enhance network participation,improve network interconnection,and prevent international market risks,so as to better deal with the complex international environment.

Local Trade Networks among Farmers and Traders

Both farmers and traders benefit from trade networking, which is crucial for the local economy. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how these networks operate, and how they can be managed more effectively. Throughout this study, we examine the economic networks formed between farmers and traders through the trade of food products. These networks are analyzed from the perspective of their structure and the factors that influence their development. Using data from 18 farmers and 15 traders, we applied exponential random graph models. The results of our study showed that connectivity, Popularity Spread, activity spread, good transportation systems, and high yields all affected the development of networks. Therefore, farmers’ productivity and high market demand can contribute to local food-crop trade. The network was not affected by reciprocity, open markets, proximity to locations, or trade experience of actors. Policy makers should consider these five factors when formulating policies for local food-crop trade. Additionally, local actors should be encouraged to use these factors to improve their network development. However, it is important to note that these factors alone cannot guarantee success. Policy makers and actors must also consider other factors such as legal frameworks, economic policies, and resource availability. Our approach can be used in future research to determine how traders and farmers can enhance productivity and profit in West Africa. This study addresses a research gap by examining factors influencing local food trade in a developing country.

Research on Weighted Directed Dynamic Multiplexing Network of World Grain Trade Based on Improved MLP Framework

As the main food source for humans, the global movement of the three major grains significantly impacts human survival and development. To investigate the evolution of the world cereal trade network and its development trend, a weighted directed dynamic multiplexed network was established using historical data on cereal trade, cereal import dependency ratio, and arable land per capita. Inspired by the MLP framework, we redefined the weight determination method for computing layer weights and edge weights of the target layer, modified the CN, RA, AA, and PA indicators, and proposed the node similarity indicator for weighted directed networks. The AUC metric, which measures the accuracy of the algorithm, has also been improved in order to finally obtain the link prediction results for the grain trading network. The prediction results were processed, such as web-based presentation and community partition. It was found that the number of generalized trade agreements does not have a decisive impact on inter-country cereal trade. The former large grain exporters continue to play an important role in this trade network. In the future, the world trade in cereals will develop in the direction of more frequent intercontinental trade and gradually weaken the intracontinental cereal trade.

The influence of price on rice production in Sierra Leone

Rice is the main staple food of the vast majority of Sierra Leoneans, eaten on a daily basis by almost every household in the country. Rice is the most important food crop widely grown by farmers across the country. Although much attention is now focused on rice production through the small holder commercialization programme (SHCP), less attention has been given to investigating the constraints faced by rice producers in the country. Also, as food insecurity continues to be a major development problem across the country, thereby undermining people’s health, productivity, and often their very survival;this study contributes to efforts to overcome the development challenges posed by food insecurity necessarily begin with accurate assessment of influential factors that constrained the production of the staple food, rice. The main objective of this study is therefore to analysis the factors that influence rice production in the country, and specifically examine the relationship between rice production and the price of rice as sold in the domestic market. The study used a log linear model with the quantity of rice produced as the dependent variable and the price of domestic rice, quantity of rice imported and price of imported rice as explanatory. Findings indicated that, domestic rice is more expensive than imported rice per ton, and this underscores the argument that, rice importation is undermining domestic rice production as a viable income generating activity. Also, almost all the people in the capital city which hosts about 70% of the total population of country prefer eating imported rice, since it is free from stones and other impurities. However, In order to control price and still increase rice production, the government should be able to purchase the rice from the farmers and then sell this rice to private retailers.

Grain Prices in China: a Review and Policy Proposals

Based on in-depth analysis of grain price fluctuations and their repercussions since 2003, this paper summarizes national grain price control measures undertaken in recent years, identifies their effects and remaining problems, and calls on relevant departments to pay close attention to current grain production and the grain market. Lastly, the paper puts forward policy proposals for making price regulation more predictive, directed and e ective.

风险叠加背景下我国粮食安全面临的挑战及对策

受地缘冲突、极端气候、贸易保护主义日益盛行等因素影响,全球粮食市场不稳定性显著增强。一方面,印度等主要粮食出口国陆续实施粮食出口限制政策以保障本国粮食安全;另一方面,厄尔尼诺现象下极端天气频发,叠加地缘政治经济冲突,引发新一轮国际粮价大幅上涨,冲击我国粮食进口国际供应链。为保障我国的粮食安全,应进一步优化饲料粮生产结构,有效降低粮食产后损失率,积极参与全球粮食安全治理,推动中国粮企布局全球粮食产业链供应链,并加大期货市场风险防范力度。

农产品国际贸易新格局形成中的中国因素

与2000年相比,2021年农产品国际贸易的产品集中度和国别集中度双双下降,发展中经济体扮演了更重要的角色。实证研究表明:从2000年到2021年,中国是全球农产品国际贸易新格局形成的重要推动力量。中国对全球农产品国际贸易规模增量的贡献为9.45%,降低了可贸易农产品的产品集中度和地理集中度,重构了全球农产品国际贸易的地理方向,提高了发展中国家在农产品国际贸易中的地位。另外,中国践行“确保谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全”的新粮食安全观,遏制了谷物进口的过快增长,从而对稳定谷物国际贸易格局、维护世界粮食安全发挥了重要作用。

新粮食安全观下我国大米进口贸易发展的特征、问题与建议

2001-2022年,我国大米进口贸易总体保持增长态势,已跃居世界大米进口榜首,产品结构以碎米为主,来源地区主要集中在南亚和东南亚,进口均价呈先升后降态势。近年来,我国大米进口贸易发展中存在着增势过猛,粮食安全风险上升;来源地数量不足,市场集中度较高;进口优势不显著,均价相对偏高;进口门槛偏低,保护程度有限等问题。新形势下,全面贯彻新粮食安全观,强化战略思维,提升自给能力;拓展进口来源,优化市场结构;完善进口管理政策,提升产业链与供应链的安全性;完善大米储备机制,增强抵御国际风险能力,实现我国大米进口贸易可持续健康发展。

从国际粮食问题会议到世界贸易暨就业组织会议——中国与战后国际经济秩序的重建

盟国重建战后国际经济秩序的努力始于1943年国际粮食问题会议,其后又历经布雷顿森林会议、世界贸易暨就业组织会议,最终搭建了战后国际经济秩序的框架。从国际粮食问题会议起,中国参与了国际经济秩序重建的全过程。虽然并不具备足够的经济实力,但中国仍在若干重要规则上为发展中国家发声建言,尽可能为工业落后国家争取了一定的发展环境。很大程度上,中国在国际经济问题上的发言权得益于政治上的四强地位。

粮食安全与国家战略的关系及战略调整研究

探讨了粮食安全与国家战略之间的紧密联系,以及如何进行战略调整以应对粮食安全挑战。粮食安全对于国家的经济发展、农业现代化和农村稳定至关重要。为了确保粮食供应的稳定性、质量安全性和粮食生产的可持续性,国家需要进行战略调整和优化。调整包括改革农业生产模式、加强粮食储备体系、推动科技创新、加强国际合作和强化政策支持等。通过优化调整措施,可以实现粮食安全与国家发展的良性互动。综上所述,粮食安全是国家战略的重要组成部分,需要国家在政策和实践层面进行有效的战略调整,以确保粮食供应的稳定性,促进农业可持续发展和社会稳定。

Building the new international science of the agriculture-food-water-environment Nexus in China and the world

The multiple,complex and systemic problems of the agriculture-food-water-environment nexus(“Nexus”)are among the most significant challenges of the 21st century.China is a key site for Nexus research amidst profound socio-environmental problems.The policy implications of these problems have been authoritatively summarized elsewhere.This study presents discussions at an international workshop in Guangzhou that asked instead“What science is needed to deliver the growing policy commitments regarding these challenges?And,What changes are needed to the science itself?”Understanding and effective intervention regarding the Nexus calls for a paradigm shift:to a new kind of science of(capacity for)international,interdisciplinary,and impactful research working with and within complex socio-natural systems.We here argue that science must become proactive in approach,striving only for“minimal harm”not“silver bullet”solutions,and adopting an explicitly long-term strategic perspective.Together,these arguments lead to calls for reorienting science and science policy in three ways:from short-term remediation to longer-term optimization;from a focus on environmental threats to one on the opportunities for international collaborative learning;and toward supporting new forms of scientific career.We bring these points together by recommending a new form of scientific institution:a global network of collaborative Nexus Centres,under the umbrella of a global Food Nexus Organization akin to those of the human genome and proteome.

贸易便利化与种业科技创新对粮食安全的影响——基于65个UPOV成员国数据的实证分析

充分发挥贸易便利化在稳定全球供应链中的关键作用,激发种业科技创新活力,促进科技与农产品贸易深度对接,有利于提升国家粮食安全水平。基于2001—2021年65个UPOV成员国的面板数据,利用双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型,实证检验贸易便利化、种业科技创新对粮食安全的影响,同时立足收入水平、地理环境以及研发强度差异,探究贸易便利化以及贸易便利化与种业科技创新协同作用对粮食安全的异质性影响。研究发现,贸易便利化对粮食安全水平具有显著提升作用;贸易便利化能够通过种业科技创新的中介效应影响粮食安全,存在“贸易便利化—种业科技创新外部效应—粮食安全”“贸易便利化—种业科技创新竞争效应—粮食安全”的传导路径,且上述结论经过稳健性检验后仍然成立。贸易便利化以及贸易便利化与种业科技创新协同作用对粮食安全的影响因收入水平、地理环境以及研发强度不同而存在明显差异,具体表现为在中低收入国家、沿海国家以及低研发强度国家的促进效应更强。因此,应着力提升跨境贸易通关效率,提高贸易便利化水平;持续强化种业科技创新能力,营造优良技术研发环境;实施具有针对性的贸易便利化策略,助力粮食安全水平提升。

农产品贸易的绿色食品产业促进效应

加快绿色食品产业发展对提高优质农产品供给能力,促进农业可持续和农业现代化发展,满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要具有重要意义。本文基于2013—2019年我国31个省(区、市)的面板数据对绿色食品发展水平进行评价,探索农产品国际贸易对地区绿色食品发展水平的影响,考察农业省份和非农业省份的差异性。结果表明:农产品国际贸易水平,包括出口贸易水平,对绿色食品的发展具有显著的促进作用,即使叠加耕地不足或劳动力短缺,仍有显著正向影响;产业聚集度的增加能进一步促进农产品贸易的正向影响。据此提出提升农产品国际贸易水平、分类施策进行制度构建以及引导多元主体共同参与绿色食品发展等对策建议。