Impacts of climate change on water quantity, water salinity, food security, and socioeconomy in Egypt

Climate change might have direct impacts on water quantity in Egypt and lead to indirect effects on Mediterranean saltwater intrusion to groundwater,which exposes agriculture to vulnerability.This study investigated impacts of climate change on agriculture,with particular regard to food security and socioeconomy,and quantified the effectiveness of cropping pattern adaptation measures by integrating three mathematical models.The BlueM model was used for hydrological simulations of Nasser Lake under flooding scenarios to predict the water supply from the High Aswan Dam.The water and salinity balance(WB-SAL)model was adopted to estimate the water salinity in the Nile Delta.The simulated results from the BlueM and WB-SAL models were integrated with the agricultural simulation model for Egypt(ASME)to project cropping patterns,food security,and socioeconomy throughout the country.The results showed that future climate change will directly affect the total crop area;crop areas for 13 crop types;the self-sufficiency of wheat,rice,cereal,and maize supplies;and socioeconomic indicators.The proposed cropping pattern adaptation measures focus on fixing the crop areas of rice and orchards and providing half of the population with lentils,maize,onion,vegetables,milk,and meat.The adaptation measures have the potential to promote food security without causing deterioration of the socioeconomic situation.However,water availability has much more significant effects on food security and socioeconomy than cropping pattern adaptation measures do.Accordingly,the country should rationalize water use efficiency and increase water supply.©2021 Hohai University.Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Rice and Climate Change:It’s Significance towards Achieving Food Security in Nigeria:A Review

Climate change is already impacting on every aspect of man life on earth especially in the agricultural sectors of developing nations.In Nigeria,and indeed the world over,seasons are shifting,temperatures are rising,landscapes are changing and sea levels are rising.Extreme weather events like drought and flood are becoming more frequent and pronounced.[3]stressed on the fact that Agriculture will suffer from major damage caused by changes in climate especially in the African continent.Nigeria is one of the African country that is highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change,as Nigeria is still practicing rain fed agriculture[16].The impact of climate change is experienced in form of extreme climatic events like flooding,severe heats,and droughts which has led to the degradation of soil and consequently low yield in crops.This will have consequences for rice cultivation in Nigeria,where the dominating climatic factor relied on by farmers in the choice of when to prepare the land for planting,the actual planting,the types of crop variety to plant and harvesting of crop is rainfall[23,24].The implication of this will be interference with food security as rice is an essential food crop in Nigeria that is consumed by a large number of the population.[26]has warned that hunger in Africa will be worsen by adverse effects of climate change,as it threatens the capacity of vulnerable countries like Nigeria to guarantee food security,eradicate poverty and actualize sustainable development in agriculture.The increasing rate of inadequacy in food supply in the world leading to different form of malnutrition is worrisome and more needs to be done in the areas of agriculture so as to guarantee food security to some extent and improve on nourishment,if a world without hunger is to be achieved by 2030.

Soil Degradation and Food Security Coupled with Global Climate Change in Northeastern China

The northeastern China is an important commodity grain region in China,as well as a notable corn belt and major soybean producing area.It thus plays a significant role in the national food security system.However,large-scale land reclamation and non-optimum farming practices give rise to soil degradation in the region.This study analyzed the food security issues coupled with global climate change in the northeastern China during 1980–2000,which is the period of modern agriculture.The results of statistical data show that the arable land area shrank markedly in 1992,and then increased slowly,while food production generally continually increased.The stable grain yield was due to the increase of applied fertilizer and irrigated areas.Soil degradation in the northeastern China includes severe soil erosion,reduced soil nutrients,a thinner black soil layer,and deterioration of soil physical properties.The sustainable development of the northeastern China is influenced by natural-artificial binary disturbance factors which consist of meteorological conditions,climate changes,and terrain factors as well as soil physical and chemical properties.Interactions between the increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation in the region led to reduced accumulation of soil organic matter,which results in poor soil fertility.Human-induced factors,such as large-scale land reclamation and non-optimum farming practices,unsuitable cultivation systems,dredging,road building,illegal land occupation,and extensive use of fertilizers and pesticides,have led to increasingly severe soil erosion and destruction.Solutions to several problems of soil degradation in this region requiring urgent settlement are proposed.A need for clear and systematic recognition and recording of land use changes,land degradation,food production and climate change conditions is suggested,which would provide a reference for food security studies in the northeastern China.

The Impact of Climate Change Induced Extreme Events on Agriculture and Food Security: A Review on Nigeria

The study of the climate change and the effects of climate change induced extreme events on food security are fundamental for the sustainable development of agriculture globally. Climatic factors are the primary important factors affecting agricultural production. Furthermore, the world is now experiencing more frequent and intense droughts and floods in many agricultural regions which damage and at times destroy crops. The effects of climatic change on agriculture have triggered significant trend of research during the last decade globally in order to unfold the solutions to climate change induced extreme events on agriculture. Several studies have been conducted on effects of extreme events such as droughts and flooding induced by climate change on agriculture and food security. These effects include changes in crop and livestock yields as well as the economic consequences of these potential yield changes globally. Therefore, this study reviews the effects of extreme events, including floods and drought, caused by climate change on agriculture and food security with focus on Nigeria in particular. For the study, literatures were identified for review through a comprehensive search by using electronic and non-electronic databases to identify researches conducted on effects on climate change and extreme events on agricultural productivity. From the review, it shows that extreme events such as droughts and floods impact agriculture and food security. In order to mitigate the effects of climate change especially droughts and floods, on agricultural productivity, there is an urgent need to intensity efforts and researches on climate change to mitigate and adapt to the occurrences of these extreme events when necessary in Nigeria. Several mitigation and adaptation measures need to be implemented to mitigate the effects of extreme events on agricultural productivity and food security. These measures include practicing climate-smart agriculture, construction and improvement of drainage networks to effectively dispose of flood water in order to reduce the risks of flooding in urban agriculture and drought-resistant varieties of crops should be cultivated.

Food Security in the Face of Climate Change: Potential Roles of Underutilised Plant Species around Some Rural Homesteads in the Niger Delta

The food and nutrition status of the rural poor living in extreme deprivation are precarious in the event of catastrophic events occasioned by climate change. This study aimed at elaborating the potential roles of underutilised plant resources as sources of food in the face of climate change. A total of 37 plant species of different growth habits were sighted within the homesteads in the study communities. The commonest plant species around home provide food, medicine, cash, and cultural or spiritual purposes. These included Manihot esculenta (Cassava), Musa sapentium var. paradisiaca (Plantains) Musa sapentium (banana), Citrus sinensis (orange) and Elaeis guineensis (oil palm). Outside the home compounds to a considerable walking distance around each of the communities, a total of twenty seven (27) plant species and four habitat types (three terrestrial and one aquatic) were encountered, with Elaeis guineensis Jacq. being present in all the terrestrial ecotypes (forest, farmland and fallow regrowth). Many of the plant species encountered within the home compounds are edible;some are medicinal or have spiritual values, while most have multiple uses. Magnifera indica, Dacryodes edulis, Persea americana, Carica papaya, Chrysophyllum albidum and Ananas comosus, are cherished for their tasty fruits. Vernonia amygdalina, Telferia occidentalis, Ocimum brasilicum, Amaranthus hybridus and Gnetum africana are eaten vegetables in soups. Irvingia gabonensis (Ogbono) is valued for its seeds, which are used widely in preparing the Ogbono soup, which is widely popular across Nigeria. The kola nut (Cola nitida), bitter kola (Garcina kola) trees and yams (Dioscorea spp) serve significant spiritual/cultural roles amongst the local populace in the study area—they are always presented at ceremonies such as marriages, funerals and festivals. Plant species with mostly untapped potentials to supply food and nutrients to the rural dwellers in the study area include breadfruit (Artocarpus cummunis), Avocado pear (Persia americana), Bush Mango (Irvingia gabonensis), Native pear (Dacryodes edulis), African Star Apple (Chrysophyllum albidum), and Raphia palm (Raphia hookeri) and Tropical Almond (Terminalia catappa). These plants are reported to contain variable amounts of dietary nutrients such as proteins, vitamins, minerals, fats, and fibre. Some of the plants have potentials to supply raw materials to sustain food and beverage industries.

Impacts of climate change on drought risk of winter wheat in the North China Plain

Drought is a major natural disaster causing crop yield losses,while its occurrence mechanism and spatiotemporal variations in a changing climate are still not clear.Based on a long-term climatic dataset(during 1958–2015)from weather stations in the North China Plain(NCP),the influencing mechanism of various climatic factors on drought risk of winter wheat was quantified by using sensitivity analysis,Mann-Kendall trend test and slope estimation.The results indicated that climatic factors have changed considerably over the past six decades in the growth season of winter wheat.As a result,winter wheat suffered from severe droughts(with 350 mm of water deficit during its growth season),particularly at the jointing–heading and heading–mature stages,which were critical to crop yield formation.There were large spatial and temporal variations in drought risk and climatic change factors at different growth stages of winter wheat.Despite precipitation playing a vital role in determining the spatiotemporal patterns of drought risk,high temperature and low humidity along with other climatic factors at key growth stages of winter wheat aggravated drought risk.Particularly,temperature at nearly 90%weather stations showed a notablely upward trend,which exacerbated water deficit and drought risk of winter wheat.Given the complexity and high uncertainty of climate change,these findings provide important information for adapting crop production to future climate change and accompanied droughts while ensuring food security and agricultural sustainability.

A systematic review of climate change impacts,adaptation strategies,and policy development in West Africa

Climate change studies are diverse with no single study giving a comprehensive review of climate change impacts,adaptation strategies,and policy development in West Africa.The unavailability of an all-inclusive study to serve as a guide for practitioners affects the effectiveness of climate change adaptation strategies proposed and adopted in the West African sub-region.The purpose of this study was to review the impacts of climate change risks on the crop,fishery,and livestock sectors,as well as the climate change adaptation strategies and climate-related policies aimed at helping to build resilient agricultural production systems in West Africa.The review process followed a series of rigorous stages until the final selection of 56 articles published from 2009 to 2023.Generally,the results highlighted the adverse effects of climate change risks on food security.We found a continuous decline in food crop production.Additionally,the livestock sector experienced morbidity and mortality,as well as reduction in meat and milk production.The fishery sector recorded loss of fingerlings,reduction in fish stocks,and destruction of mariculture and aquaculture.In West Africa,climate-smart agriculture technologies,physical protection of fishing,and inclusion of gender perspectives in programs appear to be the major adaptation strategies.The study therefore recommends the inclusion of ecosystem and biodiversity restoration,weather insurance,replacement of unsafe vessels,and strengthening gender equality in all climate change mitigation programs,as these will help to secure enough food for present and future generations.

Redesigning crop varieties to win the race between climate change and food security

Climate change poses daunting challenges to agricultural production and food security.Rising temperatures,shifting weather patterns,and more frequent extreme events have already demonstrated their effects on local,regional,and global agricultural systems.Crop varieties that withstand climate-related stresses and are suitable for cultivation in innovative cropping systems will be crucial to maximize risk avoidance,productivity,and profitability under climate-changed environments.We surveyed 588 expert stakeholders to predict current and novel traits that may be essential for future pearl millet,sorghum,maize,groundnut,cowpea,and common bean varieties,particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.We then review the current progress and prospects for breeding three prioritized future-essential traits for each of these crops.Experts predict that most current breeding priorities will remain important,but that rates of genetic gain must increase to keep pace with climate challenges and consumer demands.Importantly,the predicted future-essential traits include innovative breeding targets that must also be prioritized;for example,(1)optimized rhizosphere microbiome,with benefits for P,N,and water use efficiency,(2)optimized performance across or in specific cropping systems,(3)lower nighttime respiration,(4)improved stover quality,and(5)increased early vigor.We further discuss cutting-edge tools and approaches to discover,validate,and incorporate novel genetic diversity from exotic germplasm into breeding populations with unprecedented precision,accuracy,and speed.We conclude that the greatest challenge to developing crop varieties to win the race between climate change and food security might be our innovativeness in defining and boldness to breed for the traits of tomorrow.

Investigation of Climate and Land Use Policy Change Impacts on Food Security in Eastern Sudan, Gadarif State

The aims of this research were to investigate the impacts of climate variations on land use policies, food security and vegetation cover in Gadarif State (eastern Sudan) during 1961 to 2013. Analysis of precipitation and temperature time series revealed that the annual precipitation was decreasing while the temperature was increased in the study area. Precipitation was decreasing at a rate of −50.3 mm/10a, while the temperature was increasing at a rate of 0.02°C/10a. The result of both SPEI and SPI showed that the Gadarif State has been changed to a high frequency of drought during 1961-2013. Sorghum yield showed a significant positive relationship with precipitation during July and October (CC = 0.364 and 0.321, respectively), moreover, a significant positive relationship between Sesame yield and precipitation was observed during July (CC = 0.335). A significant negative relationship between Sorghum yield and mean temperature was observed during the rainy season (July to October) with CC = −0.278. The yield productivity of Sorghum and Sesame had decreased significantly (from more than 800 kg/ha in the 1960s to less than 200 kg/ha in 2000s for Sorghum, while 500 kg/ha in 1960s to 100 kg/ha in 2000s for Sesame). The Mechanized Rain-fed Agriculture (MRA) area of Sorghum and Sesame in the Gadarif State had been increased from 1,058,241 ha to 2,799,655 ha during 1961 to 2013. Thus, we ultimately suggest that in the Gadarif State, policy makers must strive for an increase in yield per unit area by using sufficient fertilizers along with the gradual increment in tendencies of grain production through expansion of the cultivated area.

How Himalayan communities are changing cultivation practices in the context of climate change

Climate change can have significant impacts on crop yields and food security.This study assessed the linkages between climate change and crop yields to obtain a better understanding on the drivers of food security.The study was conducted in Pasagaun village of Lamjung District in Nepal,where household surveys and focus group discussions(FGDs)were used to collect data including crop cultivation,irrigation facilities,and adaptation strategies.Moreover,climate data(temperature and precipitation)from 1992 to 2020 were collected from the Khudi Bazar meteorological station and crop yield data were obtained from the Agri-Business Promotion and Statistics Division.Trend analysis of temperature and precipitation was conducted using MannKendall trend test and Sen’s slope method,and the results showed an increase in the average temperature of approximately 0.02℃/a and a decrease in the annual precipitation of 9.84 mm/a.The cultivation of traditional varieties of rice and foxtail millet(Kaguno)has vanished.Although,there was no significant impact of the maximum temperature on the yield of rice and maize,the regression analysis revealed that there are negative relationships between rice yield and annual minimum temperature(r=-0.44),between millet yield and annual precipitation(r=-0.30),and between maize yield and annual minimum temperature(r=-0.31),as well as positive relationship between rice yield and annual precipitation(r=0.16).Moreover,average rice yield and millet yield have decreased by 27.0% and 57.0% in 2000-2020,respectively.Despite other reasons for the decrease in crop yield such as the lack of irrigation facilities,out-migration of farmer,and increased pest infestation,respondents have adopted adaptation strategies(for example,shifts in cultivation time and changes in crop types)to minimize the impacts of climate change.More investigation and community-based farming education are needed to understand and alleviate the harmful impacts of climate change on crop yield,as effective adaptation coping strategies are still insufficient.This study provides insights into the adaptation strategies that are necessary to keep food security in the face of climate change.

Dryland Pastoralism Climate Landscape and Food Security in the Suam River Basin of Kenya

River basins in the drylands of Sub-Saharan Africa have traditionally been utilized for pastoral livelihoods under communal land tenure. Communities in West Pokot in Kenya have continued to experience increased precipitation and temperature as a result of climate variability and change. This study aimed at assessing the impact of climate variability and change at micro-basin level in order to address research and policy gaps on climate change and food security as policy arena shifts from centralized to decentralized governance in Kenya. Primary quantitative data was collected from 387 households’ perceptions of climate variability and change and its implications on food security were measured. Food security index score was calculated. The annual rainfall trend over Suam river basin for the period (1981-2020), was characterized by a linearly increasing annual rainfall trend. Mann Kendall test Z-statistics and Tau were at 2.3578 and 0.0720 respectively. The basin experienced the highest rainfall variability during the first decade (1981-1990) with the highest coefficient of rainfall variation noted at 11.5%. The highest temperature was recorded in the third decade (2001-2010) and fourth decade (2011-2020) at 27.0 and 28.2 degrees Celsius respectively. However, the overall index score for food security was 55.78 with food availability scoring the highest index, mean (SD) of 63.41 (36.52). This was attributed to households’ practice of both nomadic pastoralism and agro-pastoralism activities. Climate variability and change, have resulted in increased amount of rainfall received providing for opportunity investment in rain water harvesting to support both pastoralism and agro-pastoralism production to enhance food security.

Does Reactive Adaptation Exist? Using the Ecosystem Service Governance Approach to Evaluate Post-Drought Rural Food Security in Kenya

Controversial climate change studies purport that predicted food insecurity and resource scarcity will intensify resource conflicts in developing nations. This belief is based on a prevalent assumption that African agricultural production systems are rigid and that their respective governments lack comprehensive adaptation ability. Therefore, I investigate whether and how effective post- drought adaptation activity is sustaining food production and livelihoods at Loitoktok district in Kenya. This study uses the theoretical three-step ecosystem service governance approach that analyzes both natural resources attributes and relational data. Results confirm a substantial decline in productivity and huge monetary losses in the agricultural sector of Loitoktok following the 2009 drought. Post-drought analysis reveals high diversification in crops and livestock that are drought-tolerant, fast maturing and high income generating such as camels, rabbits and dairy goats, horticultural and fruit production that sustain food security, income and local livelihoods. These reactive adaptation activities originate from an active public-private cooperation that promotes knowledge exchange among Loitoktok stakeholders. This cooperation is also seen in the efficient resource conflict resolution network. In conclusion, rural communities seem to be efficiently adapting to changing environmental conditions but require more financial and technical support from the government. Unfortunately, appraisal of national planned adaptation reveals effort-duplication that may divert much needed adaptation funds from being invested in research projects with multiple benefits to Kenyan food producers.

The Nanchang Communication about the potential for implementation of conservation practices for climate change mitigation and adaptation to achieve food security in the 21st century

There is a large number of peer-reviewed publications reporting that a changing climate is one of the biggest challenges humanity will have during the 21st century.With population growth and the need to significantly increase agricultural production per unit of area during the 21st century,a changing climate will put additional stress on soil resources.Soil and water conservation will be key for the future of humanity.Professional societies in the area of agriculture and soil and water conservation have recognized the importance that soil resources will have for humanity during this century and have made calls for implementation of worldwide soil and water conservation.For example,in 2010 the Soil and Water Conservation Society(SWCS)invited a group of scientists to review the literature about the potential to use conservation practices for climate change adaptation and mitigation.The Delgado et al.(2011)paper was used by the SWCS to develop and adopt a position statement about the importance of using soil and water conservation practices to mitigate and adapt to climate change.The International Soil Conservation Organization(ISCO)invited the lead author to present the paper as a keynote presentation at the ISCO 2013 conference.The European Society of Soil Conservation(ESSC)published a short communication about this paper in one of their newsletters in 2014.The World Association of Soil and Water Conservation(WASWAC)also invited the lead author to present a keynote presentation on this topic at the 2015 WASWAC annual meeting in Nanchang.This paper(the Nanchang Communication)is a summary of the Delgado et al.(2011)paper that was used by the SWCS to develop the SWCS position statement related to soil and water conservation and climate change.The Nanchang Communication(this paper)was used by WASWAC to develop a position statement about the immediate need for implementation of conservation practices for mitigation of and adaptation to climate change to achieve food security in the 21st century.These papers(Delgado et al.,2011,Nanchang Communication),and the SWCS and WASWAC position statements,support the conclusions from the worldwide literature that without implementation of soil and water conservation practices for climate change mitigation and adaptation,the survival of life,including our own species,will be in jeopardy,since soils will be key to meeting the higher demands for food during the 21st century.

Does adaptation to climate change and variability provide household food security?Evidence from Muger sub-basin of the upper Blue-Nile,Ethiopia

Introduction:The purpose of this study is to evaluate the associated impact of adoption of adaptation options to climate change and variability on household food security in the Muger sub-basin of the upper Blue-Nile of Ethiopia using a comprehensive data of 442 sampled households from four representative districts’in the sub-basin.The study used a propensity score matching approach to evaluate the impact of adaptation options on household food security.Results:Results show that the decision to adopt adaptation options is found to be positively influenced by male household heads,family size,access to extension service,the size of landholding,and frequency of drought and floods over the past many years.The results further reveal that farmers adopting any of the adaptation options had higher food calorie intake per day per adult equivalent than those who did not.Conclusions:A policy that promotes the adoption of soil and water conservation measures,small-scale irrigation,agronomic practices,and livelihood diversification strategies should be central to food security strategy in the study area.

Risk assessment of agricultural green water security in Northeast China under climate change

Northeast China is an important base for grain production,dominated by rain-fed agriculture that relies on green water.However,in the context of global climate change,rising regional temperatures,changing precipitation patterns,and increasing drought frequency pose threats and challenges to agricultural green water security.This study provides a detailed assessment of the spatiotemporal characteristics and development trends of green water security risks in the Northeast region under the base period(2001-2020)and the future(2031-2090)climate change scenarios(SSP245 and SSP585)using the green water scarcity(GWS)index based on raster-scale crop spatial distribution data,Delta downscaling bias-corrected ERA5 data,and CMIP6 multimodal data.During the base period,the green water risk-free zone for dry crops is mainly distributed in the center and east of the Northeast region(72.4% of the total area),the low-risk zone is primarily located in the center(14.0%),and the medium-risk(8.3%)and high-risk(5.3%)zones are mostly in the west.Under SSP245 and SSP585 future climate change scenarios,the green water security risk shows an overall expansion from the west to the center and east,with the low-risk zone increasing to 21.6% and 23.8%,the medium-risk zone increasing to 16.0% and 17.9%,and the high-risk zone increasing to 6.9% and 6.8%,respectively.Considering dry crops with GWS greater than 0.1 as in need of irrigation,the irrigated area increases from 27.6%(base period)to 44.5%(SSP245)and 48.6%(SSP585),with corresponding increases in irrigation water requirement(IWR)of 4.64 and 5.92 billion m~3,respectively,which further exacerbates conflicts between supply and demand of agricultural water resources.In response to agricultural green water security risks,coping strategies such as evapotranspiration(ET)-based water resource management for dry crops and deficit irrigation are proposed.The results of this study can provide scientific basis and decision support for the development of Northeast irrigated agriculture and the construction planning of the national water network.