FORECASTING CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE VOLUME WITH A KERNEL-BASED HYBRID ECONOMETRIC-AI ENSEMBLE LEARNING APPROACH

Due to the complexity of economic system and the interactive effects between all kinds of economic variables and foreign trade, it is not easy to predict foreign trade volume. However, the difficulty in predicting foreign trade volume is usually attributed to the limitation of many conventional forecasting models. To improve the prediction performance, the study proposes a novel kernel-based ensemble learning approach hybridizing econometric models and artificial intelligence (AI) models to predict China's foreign trade volume. In the proposed approach, an important econometric model, the co-integration-based error correction vector auto-regression (EC-VAR) model is first used to capture the impacts of all kinds of economic variables on Chinese foreign trade from a multivariate linear anal- ysis perspective. Then an artificial neural network (ANN) based EC-VAR model is used to capture the nonlinear effects of economic variables on foreign trade from the nonlinear viewpoint. Subsequently, for incorporating the effects of irregular events on foreign trade, the text mining and expert's judgmental adjustments are also integrated into the nonlinear ANN-based EC-VAR model. Finally, all kinds of economic variables, the outputs of linear and nonlinear EC-VAR models and judgmental adjustment model are used as input variables of a typical kernel-based support vector regression (SVR) for en- semble prediction purpose. For illustration, the proposed kernel-based ensemble learning methodology hybridizing econometric techniques and AI methods is applied to China's foreign trade volume predic- tion problem. Experimental results reveal that the hybrid econometric-AI ensemble learning approach can significantly improve the prediction performance over other linear and nonlinear models listed in this study.

Research on the Impact of Low Carbon Economy on China’s Foreign Trade

Considering the growing prominence of global environmental issues,a low-carbon economy has emerged as a crucial direction for economic development across various countries.As the world’s second-largest economy,China has also witnessed the influence of a low-carbon economy on its international trade development.This article aims to commence with an exploration of the development background,meaning,and significance of a low-carbon economy.Subsequently,it delves into an in-depth analysis of the impact that a low-carbon economy has on China’s international trade.The article concludes by proposing pertinent countermeasures and suggestions.

Correct Expression of Post-positive Attributives in Foreign Trade English Correspondence

The Foreign Trade English Correspondence is one of the main courses of International Trade majors.Due to the habit of thinking in Chinese,students usually cannot correctly and flexibly use post-positive attributives in the correspondence writing of foreign trade.Participle phrases,prepositional phrases,attributive clauses,infinitive phrases,adjective phrases and apposition clauses all can follow nouns as post-positive attributives to modify nouns.Mastering the correct expression of post-positive attrib⁃utives will help students improve their writing competence of foreign trade correspondence.

Seven Decades of China’s Foreign Trade:Growth and Structural Improvement

Over the past seven decades since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949,China has continuously increased its import and export volumes along with improving its trade structure,becoming a major trading nation and making progress toward a trading power.In the 13th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020),China has experienced acceleration in its foreign trade structural adjustment under its opening-up strategy,and the function of foreign trade has shifted from being a driver for growth to being a way to balance development.China is expected to continue its trade growth momentum and structural improvement and strengthen its trade competitiveness.In achieving this vision,China should make efforts to increase structural equilibrium,create a favorable external trade environment,and pave the way for trade growth and sustainable development.

The impact of foreign trade and FDI on environmental pollution

Over the past 30 years China＇s economy has made tremendous development and going on the road of opening-up is an important aspect of the successful experience, which should be unswervingly adhered to in the further. However, rationally looking at how different the impact of foreign economic activities on China＇s economy and society is economic workers＇ main task. From 1982 to 2006, based on six categories of China＇s environmental indicators, the paper improves the entropy method to calculate the environmental pollution index which can represent China＇s overall environmental situation, uses the VAR model of the impulse response function and variance decomposition method to study the impact of foreign trade, FDI on China＇s environmental pollution in the long-term. The results show that, FDI and import trade is conducive to the improvement of the quality of our environment and export trade is the deterioration of our environment, ＂pollution haven＂ hypothesis is proved in China. Export trade is an important variable that aggravates environmental pollution.

CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE PROSPECT IN 2002

China’s foreign trade volume hit US$509.77 billion in 2001, the figure represented 7.5% increase over the previous year. Of the total, exports topped US$266.16 billion, 6.8% up over the previous year, imports reached US$243.61 billion, up 8.2%, and accumulated trade surplus climbed to US$22.55 billion. The results were fairly outstanding if we take a general look at the world economy, which experienced significant slowdown in 2001 mainly due to the serious downturns in the United States and Japan. The increase can be attributed to a number of factors including the rise

On China's Foreign Trade Development and Linkage with the Customary Rules of International Trade

Although great differences exist between the trade systems of different countries,internationaltrade must go on in line with the customary international trade rules.As China’s economy developsand the socialist market economic system emerges,China is basically qualified to link up withcustomary international trade rules.In the Ninth Five-Year Plan period,China’s reform of its foreigntrade system aims at setting up a trade system that conforms with international trade practice.Forthe purpose,the author of this article suggests that a neutral trade policy should be adopted inaccordance with the international practice since it does not hinder exports,nor restrict imports toan excessive degree.

Empirical Research on Correlation of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth --Taking Shanghai as an Example

Based on the statistical data of Shanghai, the paper makes empirical research on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth. The research results indicate that there is long-term dynamic and equilibrium relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, and the economic growth is the Granger cause of trade import. Since 1979, rapid growth of economy motivates the expansion of trade import, but the pulling effect of import on economic growth is not evident. In addition, trade import promotes economic growth in the long run. But we can see that from the economic data in Shanghai that the promotion has not become the source motivate force of growth for trade expert.

An investigation and analysis of the export earnings of 100 foreign trade enterprises in the first five months of this year

In order to understand the export situation faced by Chinese foreign trade enterprises and learn about their difficulties and problems in this regard, the China Association of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Enterprises carried

Exploring New Ways to Deepen the Reform of State-owned Foreign Economic and Trade Enterprises

By the end of the century, the reform and development of China’s state-owned enterprises will create new prospects. The reform of state-owned foreign economic and trade enterprises should also see further breakthroughs. At present, the following aspects are important: 1. Implement a Holdings System in the Reform of State-owned Foreign Economic and Trade Enterprises. The holdings system plays a major role in transferring the management mechanism of state-owned foreign economic and

Environmental Effects of Foreign Trade and Its Spatial Variations in Mid-eastern Provinces and Cities of China

The studies on environmental effects of foreign trade and its spatial variations are helpful to design and implement environmental protection countermeasures.In order to eliminate the adverse effects of insufficient observation values on the accuracy of regression results and dynamic information quantity of fitting equation during empirical study,panel data of the mid-eastern provinces and cities of China from 1985 to 2007 were selected based on the adjustment of classical regression model in this paper.Panel unit root test and panel cointegration analysis method were applied to investigating the environmental effects of foreign trade and its spatial variations in the mid-eastern provinces and cities of China and its three groups divided by foreign trade dependence.The results show that all scale effects are positive,while all technical effects are negative and unable to counteract positive scale effects.Foreign trade development is regarded as an important cause for outstanding eco-environmental problems in the mid-eastern provinces and cities of China.Total effects and structural effects are significantly different among different groups because of spatial variations in environmental policies,export destinations,source of FDI,etc.Following the principle of′coordinating generality and considering differences comprehensively′,it is essential to issue a series of policies and countermeasures corresponding to differences in regional environmental effect of foreign trade,in order to coordinate the relationship between foreign trade development and eco-environment in each region.

Analysis of the Energy Embodied in Foreign Goods Trade of China

In recent years,scientists have been increasingly interested in the energy embodied in traded goods among countries.In this article,the direct energy intensities in various economic sectors of China were calculated with the data of energy consumption and output value of each sector,and the input-output table was used to estimate the external energy consumption.The total energy intensity of all sectors was then obtained.From the data of international trade,the energy embodied in goods trade of China was estimated for the period of 1994-2001.During this period,the average energy intensity of imported goods was always higher than that of exported ones.As a country with a surplus in international goods trade,China actually imported net embodied energy in the past few years.The net embodied energy imported was at the same magnitude of the imported energy in the form of fossil fuels.

Analysis of Foreign Trade Among Slovakia and the Country V4 After the Changeover

The article presents the situation in foreign trade among Slovakia and the country V4 （Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovak Republic） after the changeover in 2009. At a time of economic crisis, Slovakia acceded to the adoption of a common currency--the euro. Prior to the adoption of the euro, apprehensions were raised due to currency decreased export from Slovakia to countries V4. In this article, author analyses the mutual foreign trade of Slovakia with countries of V4 for all commodities in standard international trade classification （SITC） codes. The analysis covers the time before the adoption of the euro from 2004 to 2008 and after the adoption of the euro in the years from 2009 to 2013. It compares the percentage change over the previous year, the balance of foreign trade, and foreign trade turnover. The same analysis is also done for the period prior to the adoption of the euro as a whole and after the adoption of the euro. In the calculations, data from UN Comtrade Database were used, which are indicated in USD. The results indicate that in the transition to the common currency, the euro did not mean for Slovakia worsening trade with V4 countries. Economies of these countries have long been linked and even the possibility of its own monetary policy does not endanger Slovakia＇s export to these countries.

China's Foreign Trade:from Quantitative Change to Qualitative Change

The latest General Customs'statistics showing that by November 20, 2004,China's foreign trade has topped 1 trillion and reached RMB 1.0017 trillion, marking a new leap of China's foreign trade. After entering the 1 trillion dollar period, it is on a new stage. Foreign trade, as a big stage for China's economic cooperation, shows the six features as No.1, top 3, 10%, US$10 billion, US$100 billion, and US$1 trillion.……