Statistical properties of seismic foreshocks and aftershocks associated with longwall mining:Implications from the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model

The control and management of mining-induced seismic hazards have attracted ever-rising attention,especially in underground longwall coal mines,where continuous mining activities dynamically alter the stress states and induce seismic events.In this work,the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence(ETAS)model was applied to formulate the aftershock catalogue of mining-induced seismicity and investigate the formation of event triggering associated with longwall mining.The conventional Baiesi and Paczuski method(2004)was used to separate longwall mining-induced seismic events into triggered and nontriggered catalogues.The latter catalogue contains both non-triggering(NT)-isolated events that do not trigger subsequent events and NT-parent events of the former catalogue.Statistical properties of triggered events were analysed spatially and temporally.The temporal triggering sequence follows the Omori-Utsu law,where the temporal decay of aftershocks is influenced by the magnitude of NT-parent events in mining-induced seismicity.The spatial distribution of aftershocks follows an inverted U-shaped relationship with distance to their corresponding NT-parent events.The quantitative forecasting of triggered events was performed based on the nonhomogeneous Poisson distribution,which achieved a good consistency with their NT-parent events.Amongst the non-triggered catalogue,NT-isolated events are concentrated ahead of NT-parent events,potentially acting as foreshocks for the latter.

Step-over of strike-slip faults and overpressure fluid favor occurrence of foreshocks:Insights from the 1975 Haicheng fore-main-aftershock sequence,China

This study analyzed and summarized in detail the spatial and temporal distributions of earthquakes,tidal responses,focal mechanisms,and stress field characteristics for the M 7.3 Haicheng earthquake sequence in February 1975.The foreshocks are related to the main fault and the conjugate faults surrounding the extension step-over in the middle.The initiation timing of the foreshock clusters and the original time of the mainshock were clearly modulated by the Earth's tidal force and coincided with the peak of dilational volumetric tidal strain.As a plausible and testable hypothesis,we proposed a fluid-driven foreshock model,by which all observed seismicity features can be more reasonably interpreted with respect to the results of existing models.Together with some other known examples,the widely existing step-over along strike-slip faults and associated conjugate faults,especially for extensional ones in the presence of deep fluids,favor the occurrence of short-term foreshocks.Although clustered seismicity with characteristics similar to those of the studied case is not a sufficient and necessary condition for large earthquakes to occur under similar tectonic conditions,it undoubtedly has a warning significance for the criticality of the main fault.Subsequent testing would require quantification of true/false positives/negatives.

A Review on Research of Foreshocks

This paper briefly introduces the current research progress in the field of foreshocks,both in China and abroad,and contrasts the common characteristics and the mechanisms of foreshocks of the sequence under the definition of different conditions of foreshocks. The main recognition methods of foreshocks are briefly reviewed,and their characteristics and existing problems are reviewed and discussed. Foreshocks are small earthquakes that occur before the mainshock and adjacent to the main source location. A foreshock sequence is constituted of a series of foreshock activities that occur before the mainshock. The proportion of earthquake cases includes direct foreshocks ranging from 10% - 40% at different defined conditions of foreshocks. Theoretically,cascade model or pre-slid model can explain foreshocks. Foreshocks are mainly concentrated in the range of 10km -75 km of the mainshock,but their time distribution form is very complicated,mostly prior to the mainshock from 1 or 2 days,the seismicity rate of part of foreshock sequences shows significant acceleration features,but many foreshock sequences often show the attenuation characteristics of mainshock-aftershock sequences. The most prominent feature of foreshocks is a focal consistent mechanism and low b-value of earthquakes of the earthquake sequence. Foreshocks seems to have a certain relationship with tectonic environment and the rupture form of the mainshock,in limited foreshocks earthquake cases,the dip-thrusting earthquakes seem to have relatively more foreshocks. The results of some of the earthquake cases show that the focal depth of foreshocks gradually moved downward with the mainshock approaching. So far,it is difficult to determine whether an earthquake or an earthquake sequence is a foreshock or foreshock sequence before the mainshock. The identification methods of foreshocks mainly include a statistical method of analogy,focal consistent mechanism and related derivative method,the fine detection of the earthquake nucleation process. From a few existing studies of earthquake cases,in spite of earthquake temporal clusters and focal consistent mechanism being the most significant features of foreshock sequence,there were not sufficient conditions for judging a foreshock sequence. Because the rupture rate of expansion and sliding displacement have a tendency to increase faster with time,the method of fine detection of the earthquake nucleation process is expected to play a more important role in the identification of foreshocks,but it needs more earthquake examples to be verified.

Using the match-and-locate method to characterize foreshocks of the July 2019 M_(W)6.4 Ridgecrest,California earthquake

The July 2019 M_(W)6.4 Ridgecrest,California earthquake and its distinct foreshocks were well recorded by local and regional stations,providing a great opportunity to characterize its foreshocks and investigate the nucleation mechanisms of the mainshock.In this study,we utilized the match-and-locate(M&L)method to build a high-precision foreshock catalog for this M_(W)6.4 earthquake.Compared with the sequential location methods(matched-filter+cross-correlation-based hypoDD),our new catalog contains more events with higher location accuracy.The M_(W)6.4 mainshock was preceded by 40 foreshocks within~2 h(on July 4,2019 from 15:35:29 to 17:32:52,UTC).Their spatiotemporal distribution revealed a complex seismogenic structure consisting of multiple fault strands,which were connected as a throughgoing fault by later foreshocks and eventually accommodated the 2019 M_(W)6.4 mainshock.To better understand the nucleation mechanism,we determined the rupture dimension of the largest M_(L)4.0 foreshock by calculating its initial rupture and centroid points using the M&L method.By estimating Coulomb stress change we suggested that the majority of foreshocks following the M_(L)4.0 event and M_(W)6.4 mainshock occurred within regions of increasing Coulomb stress,indicating that they were triggered by stress transfer.The nucleation process before the M_(L)4.0 event remains unclear due to the insufficient sampling rate of waveforms and small magnitude of events.Thus,our study demonstrates that the M&L method has superior detection and location ability,showing potential for studies that require high-precision location(e.g.,earthquake nucleation).

Some Foreshocks and Aftershocks Associated with the Moiyabana Earthquake of 2017 in Botswana

On the 3rd of April 2017, an earthquake of moment magnitude 6.5 occurred near Moiyabana in central Botswana. This paper is aimed at studying the spatial distribution of the foreshock and aftershock sequences associated with the Moiyabana earthquake. The foreshocks and aftershocks data used were from the Botswana Geoscience Institute (BGI) and the Seisan software was used to analyze the foreshock and aftershock events. The analyses revealed nine epicenter locations of foreshocks which are spread out across the country and most of them are located in the central and southern parts of Botswana, while the aftershocks are clustered around the mainshock. Although five of the nine foreshocks occurred far from the boundaries of major tectonic units, the other four occurred near key features such as the Zoetfontein, Lecha and Chobe faults. The spatial distribution of aftershocks indicates that the stress released by the mainshock, re-activated the planes of weakness in the vicinity of the mainshock and farther away from the mainshock. Hence, this affected the Zoetfontein fault, the boundary between Passarge basin and Magondi belt and the boundary between the Kaapvaal craton and Limpopo mobile belt. The aftershocks also show a northwest-southeast trend, which probably indicates the rupture plane;and mainly lie within the Limpopo mobile belt that is sandwiched between the Kaapvaal craton to the south and Zimbabwe craton to the north. Furthermore, the aftershocks concentration to the south reveals a close relation in demarcating the boundary of the Kaapvaal craton and the Limpopo mobile belt.

Spectrum Deviation Method of Identification of Foreshocks or Generalized Foreshocks and Its Applications

Based on previous research work,we present a spectrum deviation method to recognize a foreshock or generalized foreshock in this paper. The criterion to determine whether an event is a foreshock is a wide spectrum for an ordinary event,however,a moderate earthquake with foreshock or generalized foreshock has the characteristics of a narrow frequency band,and it deviates to the low frequency. It may be explained by metastable extension in the rupture source or related area of the main shock or regional fragmentation damage and crack nucleation process. The calculation results of two foreshocks,the M_S4. 7 event which occurred before the Yushu M_S7. 1 earthquake on April 14,2010 and the M_S5. 3 event which occurred before the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake on February 12,2014,show that the spectra of foreshocks shift,and they are quite different from the nonforeshock seismic spectrum of equivalent size. Therefore,this result can verify the validity of the spectrum deviation method.

Discrimination Between Foreshocks and Earthquake Swarm from the Change of First Motion Sign

Based on the data of first motion of 11 earthquake sequences with ML ≥ 3.0 recorded by the Telemetric Seismic Network of Shanxi since the 1980s, the first motion characteristics of each earthquake sequence were studied. It is known that earthquake sequences of different types have different consistency characteristics of focal mechanism. The decrease and increase of the first motion contradictory sign ratios could be taken as an index to judge whether there would still be a larger earthquake to come after the earthquake sequence.

How to Identify Foreshocks in Seismic Sequences to Predict Strong Earthquakes

The time analysis of seismic events preceding several strong earthquakes occurred in recent decades throughout the world, has highlighted some foreshocks’ characteristics, which are helpful for their discrimination compared to other types of events. These features can be identified within the seismic sequence and used as strong events’ precursors. Through the energy release pattern analysis, which precedes any strong earthquakes, in this study we describe some graphical procedures suitable for distinguishing a foreshock from any other type of earthquake. We have broadly divided foreshocks into two classes, depending on their position within the energy release pattern, by describing some relationships between the foreshock’s magnitude and the following earthquake’s. The results obtained show how the energy release pattern of some major earthquakes has distinctive features and repeatability which it is possible to obtain information from in order to perform sufficiently reliable short-term forecasts.

The Spatial-temporal Distribution and Their Statistical Characteristics of Foreshocks in the Yunnan Region

We analyzed 223 earthquakes with M 1〉 5.0 that occurred in the Yunnan region during 1965 - 2014, among which 74 （ about 33. 2 % ） had foreshocks. There are great differences in foreshock populations in different tectonic blocks： the most abundant foreshocks occurred in the Lancang-Gengma and Tengchong-Baoshan blocks, which have the most abundant foreshocks in the Yunnan region. The predominant magnitude difference, time interval and spatial distance are 0. 5 -2. 9, within 10 days and within 20km, respectively. These characteristics can be used to forecast the mainshock after the identification of a foreshock.

The April 14th, 2010 Yushu earthquake, a devastating earthquake with foreshocks

In the early morning of April 14th, 2010, a strong earth- quake (Ms7.1, http://www.csndmc.ac.cn; Mw6.9, http://neic. usgs.gov) occurred in Yushu district, Qinghai Province, China. More than 2000 lives were lost and over 100000 injured,

Deformations at Earth’s dayside magnetopause during quasi-radial IMF conditions:Global kinetic simulations and Soft X-ray Imaging

The Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)is a joint mission of the European Space Agency(ESA)and the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).Primary goals are investigating the dynamic response of the Earth's magnetosphere to the solar wind(SW)impact via simultaneous in situ magnetosheath plasma and magnetic field measurements,X-Ray images of the magnetosheath and magnetic cusps,and UV images of global auroral distributions.Magnetopause deformations associated with magnetosheath high speed jets(HSJs)under a quasi-parallel interplanetary magnetic field condition are studied using a threedimensional(3-D)global hybrid simulation.Soft X-ray intensity calculated based on both physical quantities of solar wind proton and oxygen ions is compared.We obtain key findings concerning deformations at the magnetopause:(1)Magnetopause deformations are highly coherent with the magnetosheath HSJs generated at the quasi-parallel region of the bow shock,(2)X-ray intensities estimated using solar wind h+and self-consistentO7+ions are consistent with each other,(3)Visual spacecraft are employed to check the discrimination ability for capturing magnetopause deformations on Lunar and polar orbits,respectively.The SMILE spacecraft on the polar orbit could be expected to provide opportunities for capturing the global geometry of the magnetopause in the equatorial plane.A striking point is that SMILE has the potential to capture small-scale magnetopause deformations and magnetosheath transients,such as HSJs,at medium altitudes on its orbit.Simulation results also demonstrate that a lunar based imager(e.g.,Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager,LEXI)is expected to observe a localized brightening of the magnetosheath during HSJ events in the meridian plane.These preliminary results might contribute to the pre-studies for the SMILE and LEXI missions by providing qualitative and quantitative soft X-ray estimates of dayside kinetic processes.

Statistical study of magnetic holes in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock

Magnetic holes are magnetic depression structures that exist widely in many plasma environments.The magnetic holes with durations of>1 s in the solar wind at Mercury’s orbit have drawn much attention,but the properties of the magnetic holes with shorter durations are still unclear.Here,we investigate the magnetic holes with durations of 0.1-100 s in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock based on observations by the MESSENGER(MErcury Surface,Space ENvironment,GEochemistry,and Ranging)spacecraft.They can be divided into two groups according to the distribution of their duration:small-duration magnetic holes(SDMHs,<0.6 s)and large-duration magnetic holes(LDMHs,>0.6 s).The duration of each group approximately obeys a log-normal distribution with a median of~0.25 s and 3 s,respectively.Approximately 1.7%(32.6%)of the SDMHs(LDMHs)reduce the magnetic field strength by more than 50%.For both groups,some structures have a linear or quasi-linear polarization,whereas others have an elliptical polarization.The magnetic hole events in both groups tend to have a higher rate of occurrence when the interplanetary magnetic field strength is weaker.Their occurrence rates are also affected by Mercury’s foreshock,which can increase(decrease)the occurrence rate of the SDMHs(LDMHs).This finding suggests that Mercury’s foreshock might be one source of the SDMHs and that the foreshock can destroy some LDMHs.These observations suggest that a new group of magnetic holes with durations of<0.6 s exist in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock.

How to Predict Earthquakes with Microsequences and Reversed Phase Repetitive Patterns

A strong earthquake is always preceded by groupings of shocks whose identification and understanding constitute a sound method for improving short-term earthquake forecasts. Thanks to a graphical method, we have identified and classified some microsequences and reversed phase repetitive patterns that precede the hazardous events. The seismic microsequences include a series of information useful to know in advance the beginning of energy release and accumulation phases that usually precede and follow a moderate-to-high magnitude earthquake. Their identification and correct interpretation allow us to determine various warning signals. In particular, through the analysis of their shape and position in the seismic sequence we can claim that the strongest earthquakes occur shortly after the formation of some peculiar micro-sequences. The checks carried out on large data sets related to earthquakes occurred in the past have shown that the analysis procedures developed do not depend on the size of the area analyzed while predicting a high percentage of moderate-to-high magnitude earthquakes.

Time and space analysis of two earthquakes in the Appennines (Italy)

In this paper, we study two earthquakes: the April 6th 2009 earthquake of L’Aquila in the region of Abruzzo (Italy) and the 1997 Colfiorito earthquake in the regions of Umbria and Marche (Italy). The data sets of these two earthquakes were analysed in both time and space domains. For time domain we used statistical methods and models both parametric and non-parametric. Concerning the space domain, we used Mathematical Morphology filters. The time domain analysis provides evidence of a possible correlation between seismic activities and the tides of the crust of the Earth. The results obtained show evidence that the daily number of earthquakes of the sequences proceeding and following the April 6th 2009 earthquake of L’Aquila and that of the sequence following the 1997 Colfiorito earthquake have a periodic component of occurrence with period of about 7 days. It seems that the maxima of this component occur at a position of the Moon with respect to the Earth and the Sun corresponding to approximately 3 days before the four main Moon phases. The space domain analysis indicates that the foreshock activity in both earthquakes is clustered and concentrated. Furthermore, in each of the two earthquakes the clusters are located at about 3 kilometers from the epicentre of the main shock.

Multi-scale expression of spatial activity anomalies of earthquakes and its indicative significance on the space and time attributes of strong earthquakes

The noise modei based on 6 trous wavelet algorithm produces a multi-scale expression of image through the combination of wavelet transform and a testing modei of statistical significance. This kind of expression not only gives the formation and location of image structure on different scales, but also eliminates the influence of noise. Since the algorithm does not need any priori hypotheses, it is suitable for the data with complex structure. The research line is employed in this paper to analyze the spatial activity of earthquake. The method of how to recognize and describe the multi-scale space activity of earthquake is emphatically discussed in this paper. Taking typical sequences in Southwest China as research cases, we systematically study the structure characters of spatial activity of earthquake on different scales. Results show that multi-scale space structure to some extent possesses indicative effect on strong epicenters. And the foreshock anomalies of Songpan seismic sequence also reveal interesting pattern during the spatial-temporal evolvement.

A case study of large-amplitude ULF waves in the Martian foreshock

Foreshock ultralow frequency (ULF) waves constitute a significant physical phenomenon in the plasma environment of terrestrial planets. The occurrence of these waves, associated with backstreaming particles reflected and accelerated at the bow shock, implies specific conditions and properties of the shock and its foreshock. Using magnetic field and ion measurements from MAVEN, we report a clear event of ULF waves in the Martian foreshock. The interplanetary magnetic field connected to the Martian bow shock, forming a shock angle of ~51°. Indicating that this was a fast mode wave is the fact that ion density varied in phase with perturbations of the wave field. The peak frequency of the waves was about 0.040 Hz in the spacecraft frame, much lower than the local proton gyrofrequency (~0.088 Hz). The ULF waves had a propagation angle approximately 34° from ambient magnetic field and were accompanied by the whistler mode. The ULF waves displayed left-hand elliptical polarization with respect to the interplanetary magnetic field in the spacecraft frame. All these properties fit very well with foreshock waves excited by interactions between solar wind and backstreaming ions through right-hand beam instability.

Double Earthquakes Classification and Seismic Precursors

In this paper, we examine both the sequence and organisation of major shallow earthquakes occurred in various areas of the world from 1904 to 2017. We aim to describe their major features and how they are connected with foreshocks and aftershocks immediately close in time and space. Examining magnitude value’s fluctuations over time, we see that they form a basic pattern, consisting of three maxima, one of which is central, and two or more events preceding and following it, whose magnitude, in some cases, may be comparable. The retrospective analysis of earthquakes’ patterns of high comparable magnitude has allowed their classification along with the development of some statistically significant relationships between epicentral distance and magnitude difference and between time interval and delay among maxima as well as the identification of activation signals predicting their occurrence. The pattern we identified in seismic sequences analysis, in relation to minor shocks-generated activation signals’ positions may be used to obtain useful information for the evolutionary study of seismic sequences and for predicting double and multiple earthquakes. The graphic analysis procedure applied to the pattern enables us to know the period of seismic sequence’s greatest hazard after a strong earthquake.

Short-Term Earthquake Forecast with the Seismic Sequence Hierarchization Method

All strong earthquakes are preceded by branching structures having different durations whose development scheme is partly largely predictable because it follows a well organized and recognizable pattern. By using a seismic sequence hierarchization method, this study graphically explains the preparation process of an earthquake, called “branching structure”. In addition, criteria apt to distinguish the structures that will produce shocks of average magnitude from strong earthquakes’ will be defined. Based on the temporal oscillations of the magnitude values, we explain the procedure for identifying the developmental stages that characterize the energy accumulation stage of the branching structure, in order to early detect the energy release stage’s trigger point and obtain information on how it will develop over time. The study identifies also some pre-signals (trigger points) of various magnitudes in the energy release stage, which allows us to early predict the foreshocks and mainshock time position. The method we developed constitutes a truly innovative approach for the earthquake forecasting analysis, which dramatically differs from those developed so far, as it considers the structure of the seismic sequence not only as a magnitude values’ oscillation, but also as a sequence of developmental stages that may begin much earlier.

Light for Earthquake Prediction:Shocks before the L'Aquila Earthquake of April 6,2009

The temporal-spatial distribution of mid-small earthquakes in Italy and its surroundings from January 1 to April 5,2009 shows that there were significant foreshocks before the moderate L'Aquila earthquake of April 6,2009.The enhancement of frequency and intensity of small earthquakes and their concentrating tendency to the future main shock have provided a comprehensive case for digging methods of earthquake forecasting with foreshocks.

Seismic Sequence Structure and Earthquakes Triggering Patterns

Within a time distribution of magnitude values, before any mainshock some earthquake triggering patterns with several features develop, under tectonic processes’ influence, through which it is possible to early identify the preparation phase of big earthquakes. The purpose of this article was to identify and classify the warning patterns that develop before a big earthquake by considering space-time seismicity variations. The methodological approach adopted was of graphical type, based on procedures of technical analysis currently used to estimate the financial markets. In the initial phase of the study we have analyzed the seismic sequences types described in the bibliography (type 1: foreshocks-mainshock-aftershocks, type 2: mainshock-aftershock;type 3: swarm) and the main structure of the seismic cycle, within which maximum and minimum magnitude values characterize the pattern that it develops until the main event changes. Then, we assessed the position of foreshocks, mainshock and aftershocks within the seismic cycle in order to identify the warning pattern that characterized the exact time when the energy emission occurs. As to the evolution normally shown over time, we have grouped the warning patterns in 2 categories: 1) progressive earthquake pattern;2) flash earthquake pattern. Finally, we have made a classification of the warning pattern related to the fluctuations of maximum and minimum magnitude values, compared its form with the mainshock’s focal mechanism and suggested some graphic procedures in order to estimate the mainshock magnitude value associated with each warning pattern. The results we obtained unquestionably allow a better comprehension of preparation process of a large earthquake, improving the earthquakes forecasting probability in the next future.