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Information service platform of forest pest forecast based on WebGIS
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作者 王霓虹 李丹 潘华 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2009年第A3期275-278,288,共5页
Taking Linkou Forestry Bureau, Heilongjiang Province, China as the demonstration plot and Dendrolimus pinidiatrea as an example, we developed a WebGIS-based information service platform for forest pest forecast using ... Taking Linkou Forestry Bureau, Heilongjiang Province, China as the demonstration plot and Dendrolimus pinidiatrea as an example, we developed a WebGIS-based information service platform for forest pest forecast using J2EE and ArcGIS Server technology. The service platform is able to predict the occurrence period, amount of pest, occurrence tendency, and pest zones in the B/S environment and realized the display, querying, analysis and editing of the spatial data and the automatically integrated control of multilevel Data,. Additionaly, the service platform offers the visualization of geographic service and predicted results. It provides a solution for prediction of forest pest and forest resource management. 展开更多
关键词 WEBGIS Information service platform pest forecast forest pest ArcGIS Server
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Information service platform of forest pest forecast based on WebGIS 被引量:5
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作者 WANG Ni-hong LI Dan PAN Hua 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2009年第3期275-278,共4页
Taking Linkou Forestry Bureau, Heilongjiang Province, China as the demonstration plot and Dendrolimus pinidiatrea as an example, we developed a WebGIS-based information service platform for forest pest forecast using ... Taking Linkou Forestry Bureau, Heilongjiang Province, China as the demonstration plot and Dendrolimus pinidiatrea as an example, we developed a WebGIS-based information service platform for forest pest forecast using J2EE and ArcGIS Server technology. The service platform is able to predict the occurrence period, amount of pest, occurrence tendency, and pest zones in the B/S environment and realized the display, querying, analysis and editing of the spatial data and the automatically integrated control of multilevel Data,. Additionaly, the service platform offers the visualization of geographic service and predicted results. It provides a solution for prediction of forest pest and forest resource management. 展开更多
关键词 WEBGIS Information service platform pest forecast forest pest ArcGIS Server
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Ecological control of forest pest: a new strategy for forest pest control 被引量:4
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作者 LIANG Jun ZHANG Xing-yao 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2005年第4期339-342,共4页
In comparison with integrated pest management and chemical control, the authors put forward a new strategy of forest pest control, named ecological control of forest pest (ECFP). This paper reviewed the development ... In comparison with integrated pest management and chemical control, the authors put forward a new strategy of forest pest control, named ecological control of forest pest (ECFP). This paper reviewed the development history, summarized the concept and principles of ECFP, discussed the technology and methods of ECFP, and evaluated the ECFP and its application conditions. 展开更多
关键词 Ecological control of forest pest (ECFP) Chemical control Integrated pest management Ecosystem management
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Empirical Analysis of Forest Pest Control Efficiency from 2003 to 2014 in China
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作者 Cai Qi Cai Yushi +3 位作者 Sun Shibo Ding Huimin Ren jie Wen Yali 《Plant Diseases and Pests》 CAS 2017年第5期20-22,共3页
Three indexes including forest pest occurrence area,control area and input fund of 31 provinces from 2003 to 2014 were selected from Forestry Statistical Yearbook,to establish dynamic interaction index evaluation syst... Three indexes including forest pest occurrence area,control area and input fund of 31 provinces from 2003 to 2014 were selected from Forestry Statistical Yearbook,to establish dynamic interaction index evaluation system with clustering robust regression model and Stata 13. 0 software. Total forest pest control efficiency in China was determined according to the computing result of entropy method. Suggestions such as improving forest pest control efficiency,increasing service efficiency and input amount of forest pest control input funds were put forward. It will provide empirical basis for target management evaluation of forest pest control work and accountability system. 展开更多
关键词 forest pest Control efficiency Cluster robust regression model Entropy method
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EFFECTIVENESS COMPARISON OF BIOCONTROL AGENTS TO CONTROL FOREST PESTS
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作者 孟庆繁 冯振云 +2 位作者 王继志 陈宝晶 陈晓波 《Journal of Northeast Forestry University》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1996年第3期23-26,共4页
Fungi and bacteria as insecticides have been tested to control forest pests for more than ten years, they are the saine kind of biocontrol agent with the different conentrations. thesame kind of the biocontrol agent w... Fungi and bacteria as insecticides have been tested to control forest pests for more than ten years, they are the saine kind of biocontrol agent with the different conentrations. thesame kind of the biocontrol agent with the different origin areas, and the mixtures of the different kinds of biocontrol agents. The infection mechanism of virus was discussed. moreover. the mfluence of these biocontrol agents on the small animals was also evaluated. 展开更多
关键词 BIOCONTROL AGENT CONTROL Defoliating forest pest
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Occurrence, Damage and Control Measures of Main Forest Pests in Sanyuan District, Sanming City
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作者 Huang Wenling 《Plant Diseases and Pests》 CAS 2019年第2期27-36,40,共11页
From 2015 to 2017, a total of 1957 investigation sites were set up in Sanyuan District of Sanming City, to conduct a comprehensive investigation on the species, occurrence and distribution of forest pests in 200 speci... From 2015 to 2017, a total of 1957 investigation sites were set up in Sanyuan District of Sanming City, to conduct a comprehensive investigation on the species, occurrence and distribution of forest pests in 200 species of plants. The results showed that there were 163 species of forest pests in Sanyuan District, including 122 species of pests and 41 species of diseases. Dendrolimus punctatus walker, Monochamus alternatus Hope, Pantana phyllostachysae Chao, Loudonta dispar(Kiriakoff), Rammeacris kiangsu(Tsai) and Schizotetranychus nanjingensis Ma et Yuan were common forest pests, and Bursaphelenchus xylophilus(Steiner et Burher) Nickle was an invasive forestry quarantine disease. The prevention and control measures and technical measures against B. xylophilus and common forest pests were put forward, in order to provide scientific basis for productive control. 展开更多
关键词 forest pestS Species DAMAGE status Distribution Technical measures
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Application of Remote Sensing Technology in Monitoring Forest Diseases and Pests
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作者 张田 张晓丽 +1 位作者 刘红伟 裴小节 《Plant Diseases and Pests》 CAS 2010年第3期57-62,共6页
Forest diseases and pests affect the forest health and forestry production, the monitoring of forest diseases and pests by remote sensing has great advantages and potential. The principles, the technical methods and t... Forest diseases and pests affect the forest health and forestry production, the monitoring of forest diseases and pests by remote sensing has great advantages and potential. The principles, the technical methods and the main aspects of monitoring forest diseases and pests by remote sensing are described, and the application prospect of this technology is forecasted. 展开更多
关键词 forest diseases and pests Remote sensing MONITORING
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Review on Application of Electromagnetic Theory and Technology to Forest Pests Control
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作者 WANG Xiangfeng QU Zhiwei LIANG Jun 《Chinese Forestry Science and Technology》 2006年第1期51-56,共6页
Many domestic and international scholars have done a wide range of researches on electromagnetic and technology and have made some achievements. Electromagnetic technology has been used in forest pests control as a c... Many domestic and international scholars have done a wide range of researches on electromagnetic and technology and have made some achievements. Electromagnetic technology has been used in forest pests control as a convenient and high-efficient physics means. This article summaries the current study of the electromagnetic biological effect and introduces the appfication of microwave, pulsed electromagnetic field and electrostatic field to forest pests control. The research direction and prospect of the application of electromagnetic theory and technology to forest pests control arc also discussed. 展开更多
关键词 electromagnetic theory and technology biological effect forest pests CONTROL
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Application of WebGIS & Knowledge Based on Forest Pests Forecasting
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作者 Sun Xiaoying 《Chinese Forestry Science and Technology》 2012年第3期62-62,共1页
To improve the accuracy and effectiveness of forest pests forecasting,based on current forecast model,integrating the database and WebGIS technology,a practical design and construction approach of forest pest knowledg... To improve the accuracy and effectiveness of forest pests forecasting,based on current forecast model,integrating the database and WebGIS technology,a practical design and construction approach of forest pest knowledge base was put forward,and the forecast system on Web application framework was realized with satisfactory empirical results. 展开更多
关键词 WEBGIS KNOWLEDGE BASE forest pestS forecasting
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The Siberian moth(Dendrolimus sibiricus),a pest risk assessment for Norway 被引量:1
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作者 Daniel Flø Trond Rafoss +1 位作者 Michael Wendell Leif Sundheim 《Forest Ecosystems》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第4期635-645,共11页
Background:The Siberian moth(Dendrolimus sibiricus)is a serious pest of conifers in Russia,Northern Kazakhstan,Mongolia and China.The western border of the pest’s distribution in Russia is disputed,but it is present ... Background:The Siberian moth(Dendrolimus sibiricus)is a serious pest of conifers in Russia,Northern Kazakhstan,Mongolia and China.The western border of the pest’s distribution in Russia is disputed,but it is present west of the 60th meridian east.The pest has the potential to defoliate a wide range of conifers.Results:The pest is not present in Norway or other European countries,except Russia.Natural spread and human mediated transport are potential pathways for the pest.Human mediated pathways considered are:Living trees for planting,coniferous wood in the rough and foliage and branches.There has been no import of living trees from Russia to Norway during the past 30 years,and there is currently no import of coniferous wood commodities containing bark from areas,where D.sibiricus occurs.Conclusions:The probability of D.sibiricus entry by natural spread is unlikely,mainly because of the geographical distance and the partial sea barriers between Norway and the infested areas.The probability of entry by human mediated pathways is unlikely due to the very limited volume of the import.Should the pest enter Norway,the probability of establishment and spread is unlikely,due to the suboptimal climatic conditions,and the fact that the two dominant conifers in the country,Norway spruce(Picea abies)and Scots pine(Pinus sylvestris),are intermediate and poor hosts,respectively.The potential damage,should D.sibiricus enter Norway,is considered low. 展开更多
关键词 LEPIDOPTERA Invasive species Geographical distribution forest pest
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Do forest health threats affect upland oak regeneration and recruitment?Advance reproduction is a key co-morbidity
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作者 Lance A.Vickers Benjamin O.Knapp +1 位作者 Daniel C.Dey Lauren S.Pile Knapp 《Forest Ecosystems》 SCIE CSCD 2023年第6期743-751,共9页
We analyzed national forest inventory data collected from circa 2000–2018 across 37 states in the eastern United States to better understand the influence of forest health related canopy disturbances on the regenerat... We analyzed national forest inventory data collected from circa 2000–2018 across 37 states in the eastern United States to better understand the influence of forest health related canopy disturbances on the regeneration and recruitment dynamics of upland oaks(Quercus).We found low levels of oak recruitment across all disturbance types examined but limited evidence of any direct effects from the type of disturbance on the population of regenerating oaks.The general lack of differences in oak regeneration response between forest health disturbances and disturbances caused by harvested or non-disturbed plots does not indicate that the effects of forest health disturbances were benign,however.Instead,low level of oak recruitment across all disturbance types highlights the pervasiveness of the trend of shifting composition in once oak-dominated forests where oak is absent or sparse in the regeneration layer.Our results show that oak recruitment was higher when oak was present as advance reproduction prior to disturbance from any cause examined.Collectively,these results lead us to conclude that the widespread inadequacy of oak advance reproduction in mature oak-dominated forests is the prevailing threat to oak forest health and sustainability.We suggest the status of advance reproduction be treated as a co-morbidity when weighing the risk and potential outcomes from other threats to upland oak forests in the eastern United States. 展开更多
关键词 Temperate deciduous forest Regeneration ecology forest inventory and analysis Oak/hickory forest pests INSECT Disease Harvesting
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Long-range Dependence Characteristics of Forest Biological Disasters in China against the Background of Climate Change
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作者 Benyang WANG Shiqing CHEN Shixiao YU 《Asian Agricultural Research》 2017年第4期85-91,共7页
Forest biological disasters(FBD) seriously impact energy flow and material cycling in forest ecosystems,while the underlying causes of FBD are complex. These disasters involve large areas and cause tremendous losses. ... Forest biological disasters(FBD) seriously impact energy flow and material cycling in forest ecosystems,while the underlying causes of FBD are complex. These disasters involve large areas and cause tremendous losses. As a result,the occurrence of FBDs in China( CFBD) threatens the country's ability to realize its strategic target of increasing both forested area(40 million ha) and forest volume(1.3 billion m^3) from 2005 to 2020. Collectively,China has officially named this effort to increase forest area and volume the "Two Increases" as national goals related to forestry. Based on Hurst index analysis from fractal theory,we analyzed the time series of the occurrence area and related data of FBDs from 1950 to 2007 to quantitatively determine the patterns of the macro occurrence of FBDs in China. Results indicates that,the time series of( CFBD) areas is fractal( self-affinity fractal dimension D = 1. 3548),the fluctuation of( CFBD) areas is positively correlated( auto-correlation coefficient C = 0. 2170),and the occurrence of the time series of( CFBD) is long-range dependent( Hurst index H =0. 6416),showing considerably strong trend of increases in FBDC area. Three different methods were further carried out on the original time series,and its two surrogate series generated by function surrogate in library t series,and function Surrogate Data in library in Wavelet software R,so as to analyze the reliability of Hurst indexes. The results showed that the Hurst indices calculated using different estimation methods were greater than 0. 5,ranging from 0. 64 to 0. 97,which indicated that the change of occurrence area data of FBDs was positively autocorrelated.The long-range dependence in forest biological disasters in China is obvious,and the spatial extent of FBDs tended to increase during this study period indicating this trend should be expected to persistent and worsen in the future. 展开更多
关键词 forest pests and diseases Hurst index Long-range correlation R/S analysis
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History, Present and Expected Future of Forests in Slovakia
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作者 Gubka Andrej Nikolov Christo +4 位作者 Gubka Karol Galko Juraj Vakula Jozef Kunca Andrej Leontovyc Roman 《American Journal of Plant Sciences》 2013年第3期711-716,共6页
In this paper, we briefly summarize the problems that have been affecting Slovakian forestry in the past, in the present and are expected in the future. In the past, the forests in Central Europe were significantly ha... In this paper, we briefly summarize the problems that have been affecting Slovakian forestry in the past, in the present and are expected in the future. In the past, the forests in Central Europe were significantly harmed by the development of mining, metallurgy, wood processing industry, agriculture and grazing of sheep and cattle. Many areas have been completely deforested. Fundamental change occurred in the 18th Century, when the regulations about forest management, declared by Empress of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy Maria Therese, came into force. With the changing level of forest cover, there have been changing as well the problems in the forestry. Forests in Slovakia are nowadays dealing with the climate change, which is causing extreme weather fluctuations. It is connected with the emergence of abiotic disturbances after which usually occurs activation of biotic harmful agents. We expect that the most serious problem of forests in the future will be their state of health. We expect an increase representation of thermophilic tree species (beech and oak) at the expense of upland trees such as spruce. An important role will be played by the invasive species of plants, fungi and animals that can compete with native species and their habitats or in the situation of the absence of their reducents these can cause serious economic and environmental damage. 展开更多
关键词 History of forestry forest pests Climate Change Future of forests Bark Beetles
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Wi-Pest:一种基于CSI的储粮害虫检测方法 被引量:1
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作者 单少伟 杨卫东 +1 位作者 肖乐 王珂 《物联网学报》 2020年第4期51-61,共11页
在粮食储藏过程中,影响粮食安全的环境和生物因素,如粮食温度、环境湿度、水分、气体、霉变、害虫等,均会对粮食储藏安全构成威胁,其中害虫是威胁粮食储藏安全的一个重要因素。因此,需要研究一种快速且有效的检测方法,用于检测储粮害虫... 在粮食储藏过程中,影响粮食安全的环境和生物因素,如粮食温度、环境湿度、水分、气体、霉变、害虫等,均会对粮食储藏安全构成威胁,其中害虫是威胁粮食储藏安全的一个重要因素。因此,需要研究一种快速且有效的检测方法,用于检测储粮害虫。现有的一些方法耗时、设备昂贵、具有潜在的健康危害并且检测效率较低,提出了一种基于信道状态信息(CSI, channel state information)振幅的非接触、快速、低成本的储粮害虫检测方法,即无线测害虫(Wi-Pest, wireless-pest)。通过使用CSI振幅数据验证储粮害虫检测的可行性,在此基础上,设计了Wi-Pest检测方法。首先对CSI振幅数据进行异常值检测、数据归一化和噪声消除预处理,然后通过主成分分析(PCA,principal component analysis)方法压缩数据并提取主特征成分,最后采用随机森林(RF,random forest)分类方法检测储粮害虫。实验结果表明,所提方法在视距(LOS,lineofsight)场景下,能够检测粮堆活体害虫密度的异常情况,检测精度平均可以达到97%。 展开更多
关键词 CSI 储粮害虫检测 振幅 随机森林分类
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基于PEST环境分析的新疆林权信息化建设前景分析
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作者 张攀华 刘维忠 严蓓蓓 《中国林业经济》 2016年第1期18-20,28,共4页
通过对其他省区林权信息化建设情况总结,运用PEST分析法分析新疆林权信息化建设面临的环境压力及其实行的可行性,综合分析新疆林权信息化建设的发展前景。提出在主体改革基本完成,即将进一步深化新疆农村集体林权制度改革工作的现在,推... 通过对其他省区林权信息化建设情况总结,运用PEST分析法分析新疆林权信息化建设面临的环境压力及其实行的可行性,综合分析新疆林权信息化建设的发展前景。提出在主体改革基本完成,即将进一步深化新疆农村集体林权制度改革工作的现在,推进新疆林权信息化建设项目是林业部门的一项必要工作;并结合新疆实际提出了构建建设区内以PPP模式推进林权信息共享、林权交易服务等林权社会化服务平台。 展开更多
关键词 新疆林权信息化 pest分析 PPP模式
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Effects of acid rain on forest ecosystem in Southwestern China
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作者 Chen Chuying, Zhang Jiawu, Xu Guangshan Zhou Chonglian and Liao LipingInstitute of Applied Ecology,academyis Sinica,Shenyang 110015,China 《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 1991年第2期27-36,共10页
The study of effects of acid rain in Southwestern China on forest ecosystems .has been inrestigated since 1984. The results have shown that the ecosystem of Pinus massoniana forest has been damaged severely by acid ra... The study of effects of acid rain in Southwestern China on forest ecosystems .has been inrestigated since 1984. The results have shown that the ecosystem of Pinus massoniana forest has been damaged severely by acid rain. Comparing the areas where the annual mean pH value is lower than 4.5 with that higher than 4.5, the productivity of the ecosystems decreased 50 percent. Both the percentages of the green leaves and the content of chlorophyll cut down; the acidity of soil increased a bit and the fertility showed the tendency to lower. The microbial population components in surface soil were changed and the total number of soil microbes reduced from 63.5 to 92.6 percent. Besides the direct effects of acid rain, the insect pest, especially, Blastophagus piniperdoz and Monochamus galloprovincialis, seized the opportunity to enter and reproduce in it so as to aggravate the forest dieback of P.massoniana in the areas where the annual average pH value is lower than 4.5.Additionally, the simulation study on the symptoms of main tree species in Southwestern China damaged by acid rain has obtained the results in the resistibility of 30 tree species, which provided a foundation for selecting suitable tree species to cultivate in the polluted areas. 展开更多
关键词 acid rain forest ecosystem Pinus massoniana forest soil destructive pest.
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RECENT ADVANCES IN THE PHYSIOLOGY OF FOREST INSECTS IN CHINA
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作者 Dai Huaguo(Northeast Forestry University,)Dept,of plant proteetion nanjing Agricultural University Nanjing,210014,China 《Journal of Northeast Forestry University》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1992年第2期34-40,共7页
In China the research in the phusiology of forest in inseets began in the 1970s,and in the 1980s a great deal of research works was done in this field,a lot of which were concen-trated on the isolation,identification ... In China the research in the phusiology of forest in inseets began in the 1970s,and in the 1980s a great deal of research works was done in this field,a lot of which were concen-trated on the isolation,identification and synthesis of sex pheromones on the injurious forest in-seets with in Lepidopteron and Coleopteron.In the field of tree resistance physiology,some ad-vanees were achieved in the resislance mechanism of poplar to Longicorn beetles and prominents.The research of the resistance of plne to Matsucoccusmalsumurae Kuwana is now also going on.In addition,the seductive function of plant sex seducements to the Longicorn bee-tle and its digestion physiology are also being studied.Many reports on the analysis of proteins,isoenzymes and amino acids applied to classification of Longicorn beetles,Pine moths and Aphids have been published.A relatively deep insight was gained in the physiological characters of overwintering larvae of Coleophoradahuriea Flkv.in the deep cold region of Hellongjiang 展开更多
关键词 forest INSECT PHYSIOLOGY SEX phcromone. Resistance to pest SEX attract Isocnzymc OVERWINTER PHYSIOLOGY artificial feeder.
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中国林业入侵生物关键术语辨析及优先工作探讨 被引量:4
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作者 徐钦望 任利利 骆有庆 《中国森林病虫》 北大核心 2024年第1期34-40,共7页
林业入侵生物是影响森林健康和林业可持续发展的重要生物因素,其入侵与管理过程包含大量专业术语,涉及多个学科。目前我国在该领域术语的使用中存在部分术语概念不明确、与国际术语不一致、术语系统不完善等问题,造成了术语的混用与误用... 林业入侵生物是影响森林健康和林业可持续发展的重要生物因素,其入侵与管理过程包含大量专业术语,涉及多个学科。目前我国在该领域术语的使用中存在部分术语概念不明确、与国际术语不一致、术语系统不完善等问题,造成了术语的混用与误用,给实际工作与国际交流带来一定的困难。根据国内外法律、标准与研究进展,结合中国林业入侵生物的发生与管理实情,对林业入侵生物防控管理过程中的关键术语概念进行辨析,并引入生物入侵优先排序理论。基于关键术语与优先理论,探讨中国林业入侵生物需要优先开展的研究与管理工作,为完善中国林业入侵生物术语系统与管理体系提供参考,支撑相关研究、管理与法律制定工作。 展开更多
关键词 外来林业有害生物 生物入侵 生物安全 林政管理 林业政策
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江西不同林分油茶林病虫害种类调查及发生差异分析
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作者 陈元生 于海萍 +2 位作者 罗致迪 张杨斌 钟晶 《西部林业科学》 CAS 北大核心 2024年第5期100-107,115,共9页
为弄清不同林分油茶林病虫害种类及发生危害程度的差异,对江西具有代表性的3种林分类型(人工油茶纯林、近野生老油茶林、油茶-茶间作林)油茶林进行其病虫害种类、发生危害的调查分析。结果显示:江西省危害人工油茶纯林的病害有15种、虫... 为弄清不同林分油茶林病虫害种类及发生危害程度的差异,对江西具有代表性的3种林分类型(人工油茶纯林、近野生老油茶林、油茶-茶间作林)油茶林进行其病虫害种类、发生危害的调查分析。结果显示:江西省危害人工油茶纯林的病害有15种、虫害有80种。油茶炭疽病、软腐病、藻斑病、煤污病、白星病和茶苞病6种为主要病害,占总病害数的40%;蛀干害虫9种(占11.25%),以油茶织蛾、茶梢蛾和蓝翅天牛为优势种;蛀果害虫1种,油茶象甲为害较重;食叶害虫40种(占50%),以肖叶甲科、卷蛾科和细蛾科害虫为优势类群;刺吸类害虫25种(占31.25%),以考氏白盾蚧、黑胶粉虱、矢尖蚧、碧蛾蜡蝉为优势种。与油茶纯林相比,近野生油茶林病虫害的发生表现出种类更少(73种,减少了22种)、发生程度更轻、优势病虫害不明显等特点;油茶-茶树间作林病虫害种类与人工纯林相当,但一些病害偏重发生如芽枯病,一些茶树叶部害虫茶小绿叶蝉、茶黄毒蛾、茶蚜、茶银尺蛾等转移至油茶上偏重发生。不同林分类型的油茶林,其病虫害种类及发生危害程度均存在明显差异,实践工作中,应依据不同林分油茶林优势病虫害发生情况,提出有针对性的防控策略。 展开更多
关键词 油茶 病虫害 种类调查 人工林 近野生林 林分 江西
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1970—2017年全球森林生物入侵的经济成本评估 被引量:2
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作者 温玄烨 林晓 +5 位作者 赵光华 时勇 王朵 赫传杰 柴守权 谢逸菲 《西南林业大学学报(自然科学)》 CAS 北大核心 2024年第3期175-181,共7页
为明确全球森林因生物入侵所产生的经济成本,采用InvaCost数据库对1970—2017年全球范围内森林生物入侵经济成本报告进行分析。通过R语言对筛选数据进行处理,调整各成本数值为2017年等值美元,分别求和计算每10年平均经济成本、损失与管... 为明确全球森林因生物入侵所产生的经济成本,采用InvaCost数据库对1970—2017年全球范围内森林生物入侵经济成本报告进行分析。通过R语言对筛选数据进行处理,调整各成本数值为2017年等值美元,分别求和计算每10年平均经济成本、损失与管理成本、各国支出成本和各物种总成本。在此基础上,构建5种模型预测2010—2017年成本组成,通过均方根误差比较各预测模型准确率,分析21世纪10年代全球森林生物入侵的可能成本。结果表明:1970—2017年,全球森林生态系统因外来生物的入侵所产生的经济成本为1815.32亿美元(约1.23万亿人民币),20世纪80年代是成本增长最快的时期;管理成本在总成本中占比偏低,最高支出仅为21世纪初的4.96亿美元(约33.5亿元人民币)/年,远低于同时期森林生物入侵产生的危害损失;在纳入研究的36个国家中,中国支出了54.05%的经济成本,共计981.2亿美元(约6627.71亿元人民币),排名第1,美国606.03亿美元、加拿大114.59亿美元,分列2、3位;经济成本最高的10种入侵生物,包括3种病害、3种虫害、2种有害动物和2种入侵植物,其中松材线虫病所造成的经济损失达977.17亿美元,在各类入侵生物的经济成本中占比最高;广义加性模型和多元自适应样条回归显示了较好的预测效果,所得均方根误差最低,模型计算全球总成本将进一步增加,最高可达2521.1亿美元(约1.7万亿人民币),2010—2017年年均成本为88.02~97.04亿美元(约594.55~655.48亿元人民币)。 展开更多
关键词 森林生态系统 生物入侵 经济成本 林业有害生物 松材线虫病
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